Gert brushing Bermuda; a new all-time 1-day rainfall record for NYC

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:30 PM GMT on August 15, 2011

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Tropical Storm Gert, the 7th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, is here. Gert's formation on August 14 marks the 4th earliest date for the season's 7th storm. Only 2005, 1995, and 1936 have had an earlier formation of the season's 7th storm. Gert will pass very close to Bermuda today, but thus far the island has had no wind or rain from Gert, with top winds at the Bermuda Airport of just 9 mph as of 10 am EDT. Radar out of Bermuda shows the rains from Gert are staying just offshore, moving northward, parallel to the island. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and has found that Gert has not changed much in intensity since last night. Top surface winds seen by their SFMR instrument this morning as of 10am EDT were 48 mph, though higher winds of 58 mph that may be erroneous due to rain interference were measured. It currently appears that Gert's northerly motion will keep virtually all of the storm's rains just offshore from from Bermuda. Gert should not trouble any land areas after moving past Bermuda.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Gert from the Bermuda radar .

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance we've been tracking over the past few days in the open Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, Invest 93L, has regenerated a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles today and Tuesday as it moves westwards through the islands at 15 - 20 mph. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so could begin to organize over the next few days as it tracks across the Caribbean. The latest 06Z run of the NOGAPS model is showing weak development of 93L once it reaches the western Caribbean, with a track over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. Stay tuned.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall for the past 2 days from the Long Island, NY radar.

New York City sets an all-time 1-day rainfall record
A long series of "training" thunderstorms that each moved along the same path deluged the New York City and Newark areas yesterday, smashing an all-time 1-day rainfall record at New York City's JFK Airport, which recorded 7.80 inches of rain. It was the most rain at JFK since record keeping began in 1948. The previous record was a 6.3" deluge on June 30, 1984. New York City's official measuring site, Central Park, got 5.81" yesterday, the fifth wettest day on record there. The 6.40" that fell on Newark, NJ yesterday was that city's 2nd heaviest 1-day rainfall in history, next to the 6.73" that fell on November 3, 1977.

Jeff Masters

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1838. angiest

Quoting bigeasystormcaster:


That's why it won't happen. the models are on board on a system that is nothing and has been nothing throughout it's weak life.
The doom is not coming from 93L...
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
1837. CHinFL
Quoting MTWX:
Ivan ('04) was the first one I was in. Moved to Biloxi just 2 days before landfall!

Ouch! That's quite a welcome!!!!!!! Ivan is the reason I hope another one never comes! I love the science of them and learning from y'all- but I like them to stay fish!!!!!!!!!
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1836. emcf30
Quoting HurricaneNewb:
were abouts were you when donna came through?


In Orlando. Thank God I did not live on the coast at that time..
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Quoting Patrap:
04,05 and 08 showed a new Generation what can happen.

Forget not the past's mistakes..and take heed.

When the Hurricane Flags go up..

Get outta dodge.

Better to be inconveinenced a few days than to suffer the "other".

The Other can be quite b-a-d.


Too bad that not more heed the warnings. When told to leave then leave. Never a good idea to stay just so you can say you've been through one. Why? Someone may be saying you never made it through that one. Some of us have to stay because of the job but never wise to do so for a thrill.
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1833. angiest

Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


it became a tropical storm again over north carolina?
That's a bit of a mystery.  Don't know if that represents a post-trop strength or not.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting emcf30:

Donna was my first Hurricane experience. I was 3 and remember every thing about it.
were abouts were you when donna came through?
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1830. scott39
Quoting P451:
24 Hours, Enhanced IR Loop - From Rags, To Riches, Back to Rags Again.

Lets hope it stays POOR!
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1829. Patrap
93L lost some Bones from earlier,,but Levi also mentioned the Environ tonight,and the Skeleton has good Structure and a Low level Wind Field is there.



93L a Lurker.

I bet he has Wi-Fi and a Wu feed.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129906
1828. emcf30
Quoting Patrap:


Nothing like the first un fer sure.

Esp when ya young.

Betsy was my First.


I was 5.5



Donna was my first Hurricane experience. I was 3 and remember every thing about it.
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Quoting angiest:

And some storms spin up on the Yucatan:




it became a tropical storm again over north carolina?
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Quoting presslord:


btw you two...I'm following y'alls conversation...it's rather interesting

intresting yes Press im having a hard time pulling out my dictionary and cross referencing wiki to keep up with it, but yes enjoying it.
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1825. scott39
Quoting GetReal:






IMO it is not the dry air to the west of 93L impeding the development. The dry air to the west is clearly being replaced with moisture. The problem with 93L is that it is moving way to fast towards the west to get itself organized. It appears to me that 93L will slow down the forward motion late tomorrow evening, or the following morning, as it approaches Jamaica. I do not expect much out of 93L for another 36 to 48 hours.
Yes, It has to slow down to develope.
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Quoting angiest:

No need to be a doomcaster when the models are providing the DOOM.


That's why it won't happen. the models are on board on a system that is nothing and has been nothing throughout it's weak life.
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1778 dfwstormwatch "looks like the doomcasters are on..."

Yep, all their "this season is a bust" talk could cause WUbers to go into a deepDepression... or even a TropicalFunk.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
1822. MTWX
Ivan ('04) was the first one I was in. Moved to Biloxi just 2 days before landfall!
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1821. Patrap
04,05 and 08 showed a new Generation what can happen.

Forget not the past's mistakes..and take heed.

When the Hurricane Flags go up..

Get outta dodge.

Better to be inconveinenced a few days than to suffer the "other".

The Other can be quite b-a-d.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129906
Quoting angiest:

Plenty of Gulf storms went right through the Caribbean from similar positions that 93L is in (at varying strengths too).  Not sure why people resist the possibility that it can happen.
Gustav : The wave moved through the Windward Islands on 23 August with a broad area of low pressure accompanied by disorganized shower activity.
The cyclone intensified over the warm water of the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Gustav regained hurricane status late on 29 August, then became a Category 2 hurricane as it moved through the Cayman Islands early on 30 August. It rapidly intensified to a Category 4 hurricane before it made landfall on the eastern coast of the Isle of Youth, Cuba, near 1800 UTC that day. Gustav reached a peak intensity of 135 kt as it made landfall in the Pinar del Rio province of western Cuba near 2200 UTC 30 August.



Do not underestimate any wave that enters the Caribbean even slightly organized at this time of year.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Because all too often, lapse rates are not particularly steep. It takes a lot to drive the kind of instability necessary to get a tropical cyclone going, which is why the long-term average for a season is 11.


btw you two...I'm following y'alls conversation...it's rather interesting
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1816. GetReal






IMO it is not the dry air to the west of 93L impeding the development. The dry air to the west is clearly being replaced with moisture. The problem with 93L is that it is moving way to fast towards the west to get itself organized. It appears to me that 93L will slow down the forward motion late tomorrow evening, or the following morning, as it approaches Jamaica. I do not expect much out of 93L for another 36 to 48 hours.
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Quoting twincomanche:
So why are we not seeing these leading to rapid spin ups?


Because all too often, lapse rates are not particularly steep. It takes a lot to drive the kind of instability necessary to get a tropical cyclone going, which is why the long-term average for a season is 11.
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1814. Patrap
Quoting mrsalagranny:
Bad memories Patrap from that storm.Hope we never see that again.


Prepare now and be ahead of the Lines I always say.

Good time is this week for everyone to make the List completes and have a plan.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129906
1813. scott39
Quoting kmanislander:
Good evening

93L is now passing thru 61W at 13.6 N or tracking due West at 270 degrees. This will take it between St Vincent and St. Lucia overnight.

No sign yet of any resurgence of deep convection.

when is it going to slow down?
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Yeppers Pat, I think we can agree that this area has seen our share. We can past them down to a new generation in another location.
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Quoting dfwstormwatch:
low wind shear is good for tropical systems...



yup bad new 93L can go under a IR any time now may be not too night
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we have more vort at 500mb then we do 850mb at this time

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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
HaHaHaHaHa ! You are too funny.


I'm glad you like. This is what will happen. Mark my words!
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Quoting Tazmanian:
this is not good for 93L vary low wind shear this is the most up too date wind shear map wind shear has drop too 5kt


low wind shear is good for tropical systems...
Member Since: July 31, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 891
Quoting P451:
Now that is a convective collapse!



Was completely expected too.
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this is not good for 93L vary low wind shear this is the most up too date wind shear map wind shear has drop too 5kt


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Dry Air:



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Quoting P451:
Now that is a convective collapse!

i agree looks like a fish left on the banks for three days.. all those holes
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1802. Patrap
Quoting msgambler:
Dang your an Ol' Timer! Camille was my first and was 4 and in Gulfort, MS



Watched dat un with Dad 4 years later as he worried about his Parents in the House he Built for them in Bay St. Louis. They made out well,,12 big Pines down..only 1 clipped da Gutter.

But the other side of the Bay to Biloxi,,esp the Pass Christian Side..man o Man.

And then 05.

K pushed 7 feet of water thru that House 3 miles inland on 90 from the Bridge by Louise's gift Shop off of 90.


Waterlines in Oct 05 when we got there






Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129906
1801. angiest

Quoting thelmores:


EXACTLY!

We have even seen in the past a few storms not loose any organization while crossing the Yucatan...... The terrain is fairly flat, and the storm with significant feeder bands can still draw from lots of warm H2O......
And some storms spin up on the Yucatan:


Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting HurricaneNewb:
Looks like 93l going over part of heberts box /cough lol

Don't see anything significant happening until 75W...... or later...... sinking air in front of 93l...... which should inhibit development......
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Very moist out there....
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Quoting HurricaneNewb:
got it ive been reprimanded i take full responsiblility in the joke i was trying to make..ease up Francis


Its, Lighten up Francis :)


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Been lurking most of the day. Now I POOF! myself. Good night all.
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7 tropical storms, no hurricanes....these are strange times indeed, imo 93L will at most become a TS.
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1794. angiest

Quoting thelmores:


Unless it takes more of a track like the BAMM model's, which has 93l just clipping the Yucatan, and entering the gulf...... thus not disrupting the core feature, and hitting the bath water of the gulf.....

Several, including myself, warned that 93L could become a player in the western Car...... many were saying poof! LOL
Plenty of Gulf storms went right through the Caribbean from similar positions that 93L is in (at varying strengths too).  Not sure why people resist the possibility that it can happen.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting Patrap:


Here are some really cool radar loops of Hurricane Frederic's landfall at the Alabama/Mississippi border on September 12, 1979. The loops are from the Slidell, Louisiana WSR-57 radar. The first is a long-range loop, the second a short-range close up. Frederic made landfall as a strong Category Three with sustained winds of 130mph and a minimum central pressure of 943mb(27.85in). At the time, Frederic was the costliest hurricane in U.S. history.

Bad memories Patrap from that storm.Hope we never see that again.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Tell that to Richard...


EXACTLY!

We have even seen in the past a few storms not loose any organization while crossing the Yucatan...... The terrain is fairly flat, and the storm with significant feeder bands can still draw from lots of warm H2O......
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Quoting Patrap:


Nothing like the first un fer sure.

Esp when ya young.

Betsy was my First.


I was 5.5




taking into consideration i didnt move to the coast until sept of 1988...my first was Hugo...barely a year later...but have been thru blizzards on the Great Lakes, earthquakes in Cali, tornados, microbursts, etc...
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Quoting twincomanche:
Agree so should we be looking at temperatures in relation to the water to determine the potential for instability


Yes. Oceanic convection is driven by temperature differences between the water and the air. But as you say, that alone is insufficient to promote instability. A conglomeration of factors must be present to produce steep mid-level lapse rates, which is one what truly wants if one desires instability.
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1789. angiest

Quoting msgambler:
Dang your an Ol' Timer! Camille was my first and was 4 and in Gulfort, MS
Since I didn't grow up down here, and I left for the last two threats, I haven't been in one yet (not counting tropical storms a'plenty).  My mom, however, went through the "weak" side of Audrey.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting bigeasystormcaster:
93L OBSERVATION & FORECAST:

93L appears to be diminishing and now for good. It's outflow is being disrupted by a large scale ULL to the NE, very dry, dusty air to the west, southern wind shear and is generally moving to swiftly to the west to develop. Earlier it had a mid-level circulation which has now fallen apart along with the concentrated area of t'storms it had earlier today.

FORECAST:

Generally undeveloped disturbances entering the Carribean Sea do not develop at all. Very few ever develop further west because their weakness forces a more southern track into Central America or at best the Yucatan Peninsula which finally destroys the system altogether. Once this system gets past northern Venezuela I expect a turn to the SW toward Panama/Costa Rica region of the the SW Carribean Sea where the system will get caught up in the EPAC ITCZ and/or desolve.
HaHaHaHaHa ! You are too funny.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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