Gert brushing Bermuda; a new all-time 1-day rainfall record for NYC

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:30 PM GMT on August 15, 2011

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Tropical Storm Gert, the 7th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, is here. Gert's formation on August 14 marks the 4th earliest date for the season's 7th storm. Only 2005, 1995, and 1936 have had an earlier formation of the season's 7th storm. Gert will pass very close to Bermuda today, but thus far the island has had no wind or rain from Gert, with top winds at the Bermuda Airport of just 9 mph as of 10 am EDT. Radar out of Bermuda shows the rains from Gert are staying just offshore, moving northward, parallel to the island. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and has found that Gert has not changed much in intensity since last night. Top surface winds seen by their SFMR instrument this morning as of 10am EDT were 48 mph, though higher winds of 58 mph that may be erroneous due to rain interference were measured. It currently appears that Gert's northerly motion will keep virtually all of the storm's rains just offshore from from Bermuda. Gert should not trouble any land areas after moving past Bermuda.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Gert from the Bermuda radar .

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance we've been tracking over the past few days in the open Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, Invest 93L, has regenerated a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles today and Tuesday as it moves westwards through the islands at 15 - 20 mph. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so could begin to organize over the next few days as it tracks across the Caribbean. The latest 06Z run of the NOGAPS model is showing weak development of 93L once it reaches the western Caribbean, with a track over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. Stay tuned.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall for the past 2 days from the Long Island, NY radar.

New York City sets an all-time 1-day rainfall record
A long series of "training" thunderstorms that each moved along the same path deluged the New York City and Newark areas yesterday, smashing an all-time 1-day rainfall record at New York City's JFK Airport, which recorded 7.80 inches of rain. It was the most rain at JFK since record keeping began in 1948. The previous record was a 6.3" deluge on June 30, 1984. New York City's official measuring site, Central Park, got 5.81" yesterday, the fifth wettest day on record there. The 6.40" that fell on Newark, NJ yesterday was that city's 2nd heaviest 1-day rainfall in history, next to the 6.73" that fell on November 3, 1977.

Jeff Masters

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1887. angiest

Quoting bigeasystormcaster:


Very unreliable models for storms that have not developed or even exist. These models as you know will change a hundred times and they can only predict accurately out about 3-5 to days in these modern, technologically advances times.
Yes, and we are simply discussing the interesting scenarios.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766

uh-oh maybe slam into Yucatan as ... strong t.s or cat 1 hurricane...
Member Since: July 31, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 864
Quoting bigeasystormcaster:


I do remember Gustav. I lived in the Baton Rouge area where we took a big hit. Gustav was about a week before Ike in 2008 and it actually came from the Atlantic north of Haiti and Cuba. It did cross over Cuba and became a major storm near the Isle of Youth before turning northwest toward Louisiana. It did not come through the Lesser Antilles! Most major storms that hit Louisiana come through the Florida Straits and not from the NW Carribean. The only outliner was Camille which hit the MS gulfcoast as you know. A just miss to Louisiana.
Where did it come through then to develop in the SE Caribbean ?



Gustav formed out of a tropical wave that had previously produced t-rain and squalls in the Lesser Antilles.
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asked this earlier but probably made to many ignore lists but is the blob of convection at 43w 12n part of the monsoon?
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1883. nigel20

The tropical wave near Africa is pushing the SAL out of the way.
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Quoting angiest:

~Two weeks out on GFS and ECWMF.


Very unreliable models for storms that have not developed or even exist. These models as you know will change a hundred times and they can only predict accurately out about 3-5 to days in these modern, technologically advances times.
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Quoting Grothar:
I said, DID ANYBODY SEE THIS???

Link below:
See Link:
Interesting Link:
Wow:


Link


ummmm yep...closed my eyes...don't wanna see it but ty anyway....
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Quoting JLPR2:
Zero circulation.


At the surface yes, but the higher you go the better the rotation is. It remains to be seen if it can work its way down to the surface and if so when.
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Quoting P451:


Yup, I know it, was just pointing it out.

70W and beyond is where this may begin to organize.

It's why you can throw those intensity models many were excited about earlier out the window. The models have 93L intensifying steadily from this very moment forward. Not going to happen.

Given the system's history, lack of organization, lack of surface features, poor environment, unfavorable location (etc, etc, etc) it was quite clear today's flareup was just that: A flareup.



I completely agree.
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1878. Grothar
I said, DID ANYBODY SEE THIS???

Link below:
See Link:
Interesting Link:
Wow:


Link
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26010
Quoting presslord:


eeewww...


i second that EEEWWW
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Quoting nigel20:
Whats up guys?


not much. september may hold a bit more action
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1875. angiest

Quoting JLPR2:
Zero circulation.
If I'm not mistaken, that would be too far west.  I don't think it has crossed the islands yet.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting bigeasystormcaster:


It won't develop. Too many impediments for it to overcome.



Ummmmm, what are you looking at, I'm seeing 5 kt shear, and hot SSTs ahead of it. It's also taking care of the dry air.
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aislin, I know what you mean. 2 days after the storm I left Al Port,AL with a truckload of MRE's and water I got off of the trucks at the firehouse to take to the neighborhood of my parents in Gulfport because no one was there yet to help them. I was stopped at the Hwy 49 exit by the MPs and asked where I was going and if I knew about the curfew. I told the where I as going and that I knew and where I was from and they told me to go straight there and don't stop for anyone except LEO or Military that I could be shot for the items in the back of the truck. I laughed and showed him my passenger seat and said "I won't go alone". Mind you this was 3am.
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Quoting P451:
24 Hours, Enhanced IR Loop - From Rags, To Riches, Back to Rags Again.



as per 2011
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1871. nigel20
Whats up guys?
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1870. JLPR2
Zero circulation.
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Quoting cat6band:
stormwatcher....very well said. I love the fair weathered lurkers on here. Tomorrow if this thing blows up they'll jump right back on the band wagon...they remind me of really bad Saints fans...
Same thing I was thinking earlier. All day long I have seen, WOW 93L really taking off and now the same ones saying 93L dead and there was never any hope.
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Quoting thelmores:


Ahhh.... nothing much...... just the Long Range GFS heading straight for your boat...... or is that a ship? LOL

Long Range GFS


eeewww...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10484
Quoting angiest:

Yeah I was noticing a trend towards steering weakening...


The forecast steering from yesterday had a weakness over the Fla area with the Atl high to the East and another high over Texas to the West this Wed. and Thursday. This would promote a slowing in the forward speed and a pull up to the WNW followed by either a block by the Texas high causing a recurve over the NE GOM or a more Westerly track across the Yucatan. This is still a few days out so no call on this at the present time.

Forward speed should start to slow late tomorrow.
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1865. angiest

Quoting bigeasystormcaster:


Then where? None of the reliable models are predicting any major storms that would hold together during the next 7-10 days. Where is this storm that is going to bring doom to someone? What reliable model?
~Two weeks out on GFS and ECWMF.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
1864. Patrap
Quoting msgambler:
You confusin' the young uns' with the "good tunes".


O I hope so.

: )

Im out to scout the Saints Friday night oppenents in the 4Qtr of MNF.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
Quoting superpete:


Good evening all. Will be interesting to see what developments 93L undergoes as it approaches 70 to 75 W in the upcoming couple of days.


It won't develop. Too many impediments for it to overcome.
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Quoting twincomanche:
I have to sign off cause of business tomorrow but want to continue this when we get a chance. I have this thing about what's going on that I want to keep talking about til we get a hypotheses. (spelling) There's a reason why this weather ain't working like the models. I don't like models, I like observation however I have hope some day the models will work.


Fine by me. Take care.
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1861. Patrap
Hurricane Gustav Crosses Cuba



Key West WSR-88D

(KBYX)


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
should be may have best estimate appears to be best estimate.. the 11pm.. and damn i thought i was drunk
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Quoting Patrap:

93L in Tune


..fer the Geriatric among us.
You confusin' the young uns' with the "good tunes".
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Quoting angiest:

The doom is not coming from 93L...


Then where? None of the reliable models are predicting any major storms that would hold together during the next 7-10 days. Where is this storm that is going to bring doom to someone? What reliable model?
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Quoting presslord:



What did I miss?! Can one of you fine folks repost? mucho thankso


Ahhh.... nothing much...... just the Long Range GFS heading straight for your boat...... or is that a ship? LOL

Long Range GFS
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1856. angiest

Quoting kmanislander:


Fairly soon

Yeah I was noticing a trend towards steering weakening...
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
1855. Grothar
Anyone post this yet?

Link
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26010
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Gustav : The wave moved through the Windward Islands on 23 August with a broad area of low pressure accompanied by disorganized shower activity.
The cyclone intensified over the warm water of the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Gustav regained hurricane status late on 29 August, then became a Category 2 hurricane as it moved through the Cayman Islands early on 30 August. It rapidly intensified to a Category 4 hurricane before it made landfall on the eastern coast of the Isle of Youth, Cuba, near 1800 UTC that day. Gustav reached a peak intensity of 135 kt as it made landfall in the Pinar del Rio province of western Cuba near 2200 UTC 30 August.



Do not underestimate any wave that enters the Caribbean even slightly organized at this time of year.


Good evening all. Will be interesting to see what developments 93L undergoes as it approaches 70 to 75 W in the upcoming couple of days.
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My first hurricane experience was Floyd, are at least that's the first one I can remember. I don't remember anything from Fran, Bertha, or Bonnie.

If you couldn't tell before I'm a Wilmington native.
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12Z CMC 144hrs



18Z GFS 150hrs



12Z ECMWF



I call that model agreement......
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Quoting msgambler:
Too bad that not more heed the warnings. When told to leave then leave. Never a good idea to stay just so you can say you've been through one. Why? Someone may be saying you never made it through that one. Some of us have to stay because of the job but never wise to do so for a thrill.


What gets me is that FEMA then goes to where people were not supposed to be and leaves the places where people were also hit, have the evacuees as well, sitting waiting for the help. We had Katrina refugees still in gyms, was hit by Rita and the same people who had no water, etc., in Katrina were in the same boat again, three weeks later. Fema was in Lake Charles, which was to have been evacuated. Luckily, people around here shared what they had and made sure the evacuees did not go without. Okay, I vented. *G*
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1850. Patrap

93L in Tune


..fer the Geriatric among us.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
HaHaHaHaHa ! You are too funny.


I do remember Gustav. I lived in the Baton Rouge area where we took a big hit. Gustav was about a week before Ike in 2008 and it actually came from the Atlantic north of Haiti and Cuba. It did cross over Cuba and became a major storm near the Isle of Youth before turning northwest toward Louisiana. It did not come through the Lesser Antilles! Most major storms that hit Louisiana come through the Florida Straits and not from the NW Carribean. The only outliner was Camille which hit the MS gulfcoast as you know. A just miss to Louisiana.
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000
WTNT32 KNHC 160231
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GERT ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072011
1100 PM AST MON AUG 15 2011

...GERT MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.7N 61.6W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM NE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GERT WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.6 WEST. GERT IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H...AND A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND THEN EAST-NORTHEAST WITH AN ADDITIONAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY LATE TUESDAY...AND
GERT IS LIKELY TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

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Quoting emcf30:


In Orlando. Thank God I did not live on the coast at that time..
my folks were in Venice fl. they took quit a bit of dmg but survived it thank god.
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1846. scott39
Dont forget you can get your senior discount at 55. LOL
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...GERT MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...
11:00 PM AST Mon Aug 15
Location: 34.7°N 61.6°W
Max sustained: 60 mph
Moving: NNE at 18 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb
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000
WTNT42 KNHC 160231
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072011
1100 PM AST MON AUG 15 2011

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE NEAR THE
NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND
MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST SOME NORTHEASTWARD TILT OF THE CENTER WITH
HEIGHT. DVORAK ESTIMATES OF INTENSITY RANGE FROM 35 TO 55 KT AND
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. GERT
SHOULD BE TRAVERSING WARM WATER FOR ONLY ANOTHER 12 TO 18 HOURS...
SO WEAKENING IS LIKELY TO COMMENCE IN 24 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH THE STATISTICAL-
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM BECOMING
EMBEDDED WITHIN A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN 36 HOURS AND BECOMING ABSORBED
BY A LARGE NORTH ATLANTIC LOW IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO.

CENTER FIXES HAVE BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN THIS EVENING BUT MY BEST
ESTIMATE IS THAT THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND
THE MOTION IS NOW NEAR 030/16. GERT IS BEING SWEPT UP IN THE FLOW
AHEAD OF A LARGE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE RIGHT IS ANTICIPATED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO HIGHER
LATITUDES AND BECOMES INFLUENCED BY A MORE ZONAL STEERING CURRENT.
THD OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 34.7N 61.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 37.3N 59.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 40.8N 55.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 44.0N 49.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 18/0000Z 46.5N 41.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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93L's convective loss this evening is likely due to the diurnal minimum. If you look at satellite imagery, you'll see a lack of lower-level outflow boundaries diverging from the system due to dry air intrusion which promotes downdrafts.

I guess you can consider this somewhat of an encouraging sign for development in 93L's defense as it appears that dry air isn't as bad as it appears. Don't get me wrong though, dry air is still one of the major impediments on development currently on the table, but I just don't think it's the only one.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21122
stormwatcher....very well said. I love the fair weathered lurkers on here. Tomorrow if this thing blows up they'll jump right back on the band wagon...they remind me of really bad Saints fans...
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Quoting HurricaneNewb:

intresting yes Press im having a hard time pulling out my dictionary and cross referencing wiki to keep up with it, but yes enjoying it.


I just have another beer, Then at least THINK I know what they are saying....

brb
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Quoting scott39:
when is it going to slow down?


Fairly soon

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1838. angiest

Quoting bigeasystormcaster:


That's why it won't happen. the models are on board on a system that is nothing and has been nothing throughout it's weak life.
The doom is not coming from 93L...
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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