Gert brushing Bermuda; a new all-time 1-day rainfall record for NYC

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:30 PM GMT on August 15, 2011

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Tropical Storm Gert, the 7th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, is here. Gert's formation on August 14 marks the 4th earliest date for the season's 7th storm. Only 2005, 1995, and 1936 have had an earlier formation of the season's 7th storm. Gert will pass very close to Bermuda today, but thus far the island has had no wind or rain from Gert, with top winds at the Bermuda Airport of just 9 mph as of 10 am EDT. Radar out of Bermuda shows the rains from Gert are staying just offshore, moving northward, parallel to the island. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and has found that Gert has not changed much in intensity since last night. Top surface winds seen by their SFMR instrument this morning as of 10am EDT were 48 mph, though higher winds of 58 mph that may be erroneous due to rain interference were measured. It currently appears that Gert's northerly motion will keep virtually all of the storm's rains just offshore from from Bermuda. Gert should not trouble any land areas after moving past Bermuda.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Gert from the Bermuda radar .

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance we've been tracking over the past few days in the open Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, Invest 93L, has regenerated a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles today and Tuesday as it moves westwards through the islands at 15 - 20 mph. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so could begin to organize over the next few days as it tracks across the Caribbean. The latest 06Z run of the NOGAPS model is showing weak development of 93L once it reaches the western Caribbean, with a track over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. Stay tuned.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall for the past 2 days from the Long Island, NY radar.

New York City sets an all-time 1-day rainfall record
A long series of "training" thunderstorms that each moved along the same path deluged the New York City and Newark areas yesterday, smashing an all-time 1-day rainfall record at New York City's JFK Airport, which recorded 7.80 inches of rain. It was the most rain at JFK since record keeping began in 1948. The previous record was a 6.3" deluge on June 30, 1984. New York City's official measuring site, Central Park, got 5.81" yesterday, the fifth wettest day on record there. The 6.40" that fell on Newark, NJ yesterday was that city's 2nd heaviest 1-day rainfall in history, next to the 6.73" that fell on November 3, 1977.

Jeff Masters

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Viewing: 1938 - 1888

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1938. nigel20
Quoting stormpetrol:


I'm not sure, look at 13.2N/62.8W Link < I still think 93L might be the one to watch so far this 2011 season, I'm not turning my back til it gets north of 19/81 :) just saying...

I think you are right.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Still many days away from wherever it may go IF it does indeed develop.


I genuinely hope no one locatged in the gulfcoast region gets a bad storm. No one needs it now.
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1936. yoboi
Quoting bigeasystormcaster:


Then where? None of the reliable models are predicting any major storms that would hold together during the next 7-10 days. Where is this storm that is going to bring doom to someone? What reliable model?


look at the g-shock model new model from stanford univ
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Quoting kmanislander:


A reasonable conclusion based upon present circumstances, if it does develop at all.
Agreed. 93L continues to bring surprises though. When I went to bed last night around 10 or 11 I never would have believed it would look so good this morning.
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Quoting Grothar:
I said, DID ANYBODY SEE THIS???

Link below:
See Link:
Interesting Link:
Wow:


Link


Yes and YIKES!
hahaha :)
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Gustav originated in the Caribbean. Also, it's untrue that the majority of our (I'm in Louisiana also) landfalls come from storms traversing the Florida Straits, at least to an extent. Georges, for example, plowed through the northern Caribbean before making landfall along the Mississippi Gulf Coast. Yes, it did traverse the straits, but again, it originated in the Caribbean.

Opal, which briefly threatened us, also did not traverse the straits, nor have many of the other threats over the years (Bertha in 1988, Alberto in 1994, Danny in 1997, Barry in 2001, just to name a few). Also, both Isidore and Lili originated in the Caribbean.

In summary, I would argue that our landfalls can come from anywhere. The distribution of them from the straits, Caribbean, or elsewhere is roughly equal.


I was speaking of actual hits, not threats and of major storms, not weak storms.
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D-Max should start to fire up in about 2 hours from now my time 10pm should help 93L alot I think we will start to see the sfc circulation sometime near midday tue then contines to develop then into a TD/TS at somewhere betwwen 68-70W
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Quoting angiest:

Earlier GFS had it as a GOM monster.  More recently it is off the east coast.  We'll see where else soon enough.
Still many days away from wherever it may go IF it does indeed develop.
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Quoting kmanislander:


Open wave at the surface


I'm not sure, look at 13.2N/62.8W Link < I still think 93L might be the one to watch so far this 2011 season, I'm not turning my back til it gets north of 19/81 :) just saying...
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If anyone wants a brief diversion from 93L, here's what's been happening on the opposite side of the planet (more or less).

Link
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
The spin may be in the upper levels but there is a definite and very visible spin. IMO 93L won't really get going until it is closer to Jamaica.


A reasonable conclusion based upon present circumstances, if it does develop at all.
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1927. angiest

Quoting dfwstormwatch:
why are you guys thinking thats bad we just got over a 40 day streak of 100 at dfw we finally broke it with rain last friday
It gets to 100 many fewer days per year here than it does there.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
1926. nigel20

Invest 93L visible sat.
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Quoting Grothar:


Eh???
LOL.
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Quoting USAFwxguy:


yes. the low pressure generally exists back in the st lucia vicinity. you are correct that the "spin" exists more in the upper levels....no closed low near surface
The spin may be in the upper levels but there is a definite and very visible spin. IMO 93L won't really get going until it is closer to Jamaica.
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ok...i am closing my eyes until sometime tomorrow... going to bed so i can make sure i get up early to do the "my kid is going back to school happy dance" bright and early in the morning....WHOOT WHOOOT! I LOVE THE FIRST DAY OF SCHOOL!
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1922. angiest

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Models are showing the newest wave off Africa in the GOM. It is best if you state that something is your opinion and it will be taken much better. If you act like a know it all it makes you sound like a troll.
Earlier GFS had it as a GOM monster.  More recently it is off the east coast.  We'll see where else soon enough.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting JLPR2:


I remember seeing no circulation in Emily on the ASCAT even though the HHs found a weak one so Ascat is not 100% accurate.
But if it does fire up tonight it could manage what you said, it does have a rather nice mid-level vort.


We do not need ASCAT now as we have surface obs from several of the islands to tell us what is going on.
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Quoting Grothar:


Eh???
disrespect continues from the younger generation /sigh
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Quoting bappit:
Houston public info statement from NWS:

THIS AFTERNOON BUSH INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...IAH...REACHED 100 DEGREES. THIS MARKS THE 15TH CONSECUTIVE DAY THAT TEMPERATURES REACHED THE CENTURY MARK AND BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 14 SET ON JULY 19TH 1980.
why are you guys thinking thats bad we just got over a 40 day streak of 100 at dfw we finally broke it with rain last friday
Member Since: July 31, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 841
1918. Grothar
Quoting mcluvincane:
Quoting Grothar:
I said, DID ANYBODY SEE THIS???

Link below:
See Link:
Interesting Link:
Wow:
Holy smokes:

Link


:)
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25539
Quoting bigeasystormcaster:


I stand corrected. Good research. I still do not think 93L will do anything. I see in advanced modeling the possibility of a serious storm somewhere on the East Coast in 10+ days but nothing serious in the GOM. would you agree?
Models are showing the newest wave off Africa in the GOM. It is best if you state that something is your opinion and it will be taken much better. If you act like a know it all it makes you sound like a troll.
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Quoting tiggeriffic:


that wasn't 93...it is the new one off the coast of africa if i am not mistaken...watch the dates

Nothing a little haarp won't take care of.

(yes, that is a breathtaking synopsis)
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1915. Grothar
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Stop shouting . We can hear just fine and we don't need hearing aids old timer.


Eh???
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25539
Quoting stormpetrol:


Open wave at the surface
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Quoting bigeasystormcaster:


I do remember Gustav. I lived in the Baton Rouge area where we took a big hit. Gustav was about a week before Ike in 2008 and it actually came from the Atlantic north of Haiti and Cuba. It did cross over Cuba and became a major storm near the Isle of Youth before turning northwest toward Louisiana. It did not come through the Lesser Antilles! Most major storms that hit Louisiana come through the Florida Straits and not from the NW Carribean. The only outliner was Camille which hit the MS gulfcoast as you know. A just miss to Louisiana.


Gustav originated in the Caribbean. Also, it's untrue that the majority of our (I'm in Louisiana also) landfalls come from storms traversing the Florida Straits. Georges, for example, plowed through the northern Caribbean before making landfall along the Mississippi Gulf Coast. Yes, it did traverse the straits, but again, it originated in the Caribbean.

Opal, which briefly threatened us, also did not traverse the straits, nor have many of the other threats over the years (Bertha in 1988, Alberto in 1994, Danny in 1997, Barry in 2001, just to name a few). Also, both Isidore and Lili originated in the Caribbean.

In summary, I would argue that our landfalls can come from anywhere. The distribution of them from the straits, Caribbean, or elsewhere is roughly equal.
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- Update

* By "Barbara Cannegieter"
* Date: Mon, 15 Aug 2011 19:32:09 -0400

All is quiet on St. Maarten
We had a heavy shower this afternoon but no rain since then. I see a lot of lightning to the south and east. I think most of the convection from this wave is passing South of us.
I’m not sure what tomorrow will bring.
The little rain though this afternoon helped to cool things off a little bit.
It has been steaming here the past few days.
from caribbean hurricane network
Member Since: July 31, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 841
Quoting Grothar:
I said, DID ANYBODY SEE THIS???

Link below:
See Link:
Interesting Link:
Wow:
Holy smokes:

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1909. JLPR2
Quoting kmanislander:


At the surface yes, but the higher you go the better the rotation is. It remains to be seen if it can work its way down to the surface and if so when.


I remember seeing no circulation in Emily on the ASCAT even though the HHs found a weak one so Ascat is not 100% accurate.
But if it does fire up tonight it could manage what you said, it does have a rather nice mid-level vort.
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1907. bappit
Houston public info statement from NWS:

THIS AFTERNOON BUSH INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...IAH...REACHED 100 DEGREES. THIS MARKS THE 15TH CONSECUTIVE DAY THAT TEMPERATURES REACHED THE CENTURY MARK AND BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 14 SET ON JULY 19TH 1980.
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Bigeasy is looking for someone to bite....don't give him the pleasure. We know you think it's dead and ALL of the tropics....so why are you still here?? There shouldn't be any more to talk about right?
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1905. geepy86
Quoting Grothar:
I said, DID ANYBODY SEE THIS???

Link below:
See Link:
Interesting Link:
Wow:


Link

I'm not looking and ya can't make me, : )
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Where did it come through then to develop in the SE Caribbean ?



Gustav formed out of a tropical wave that had previously produced t-rain and squalls in the Lesser Antilles.


I stand corrected. Good research. I still do not think 93L will do anything. I see in advanced modeling the possibility of a serious storm somewhere on the East Coast in 10+ days but nothing serious in the GOM. would you agree?
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Quoting USAFwxguy:


west winds south of St Lucia... circulation in that area


St Lucia obs show winds N to NE with a pressure of 1013.
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Quoting redwagon:
>
I see that. 93 wipes out the entire east coast instead of bringing soaking rain to TX.

Well, we're TRYING to wishcast it here to TX, as hard as we can.....


that wasn't 93...it is the new one off the coast of africa if i am not mistaken...watch the dates
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Well, I am off for the night. Everyone have a good rest of the evening.
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Quoting Grothar:
I said, DID ANYBODY SEE THIS???

Link below:
See Link:
Interesting Link:
Wow:


Link
Stop shouting . We can hear just fine and we don't need hearing aids old timer.
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1899. nigel20
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good question but I don't know the answer. Sometimes it helps if you address your question to a specific person.

I was just about to ask the same question.
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Not a fun night in Bismark, ND.

@JimCantore
Jim Cantore
Media reports "significant" flooding in the streets of Bismark, ND

@JimCantore
Jim Cantore
Reports of flooding at the Bismarck expressway bridge. Cars cannot drive through water. Also other reports of flooding along expressway

@JimCantore
Jim Cantore
Winds still gusting to 70mph in Bismark, ND and flooding reports are still coming in. Can someone safely send me a twitpic? Thanks

SVR T-STORM WARNING BISMARCK ND - KBIS 936 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING BISMARCK ND - KBIS 925 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2011
FLASH FLOOD WARNING BISMARCK ND - KBIS 918 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING BISMARCK ND - KBIS 817 PM MDT MON AUG 15 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING BISMARCK ND - KBIS 909 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING BILLINGS MT - KBYZ 808 PM MDT MON AUG 15 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING BISMARCK ND - KBIS 852 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING BISMARCK ND - KBIS 747 PM MDT MON AUG 15 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING BISMARCK ND - KBIS 714 PM MDT MON AUG 15 2011
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1897. Skyepony (Mod)
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thanks for the info BAHAHURRICA. I will check that out. Seems ive heard something about storms opening trails ,or windows THAT OTHER STROMS follow. I WILL CHECK TO SEE IF THERES SOME VALIDITY TO THAT.
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1895. bappit
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Where did it come through then to develop in the SE Caribbean ?



Gustav formed out of a tropical wave that had previously produced t-rain and squalls in the Lesser Antilles.

Aye! And what about Hilda, Edith (Texas scraper that one) or Audrey? Plus a proverbial bunch more.
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This is off topic, but really cool. I gotta get me one of these things.

Link
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Quoting Grothar:
I said, DID ANYBODY SEE THIS???

Link below:
See Link:
Interesting Link:
Wow:


Link
>
I see that. 93 wipes out the entire east coast instead of bringing soaking rain to TX.

Well, we're TRYING to wishcast it here to TX, as hard as we can.....
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Quoting HurricaneNewb:
asked this earlier but probably made to many ignore lists but is the blob of convection at 43w 12n part of the monsoon?
Good question but I don't know the answer. Sometimes it helps if you address your question to a specific person.
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Quoting angiest:

If I'm not mistaken, that would be too far west.  I don't think it has crossed the islands yet.


Just passing between St Vincent and St Lucia near 61W.

We didnt need a sat pass to determine there is no surface low other than a very broad area of low pressure. No wind shift at Barbados to the West of due North today said it all.
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Quoting kmanislander:


At the surface yes, but the higher you go the better the rotation is. It remains to be seen if it can work its way down to the surface and if so when.


A convective burst tonight during d-max would go a long way to getting that spin to the surface.
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Not good future prospects for TD Six-E.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062011
800 PM PDT MON AUG 15 2011

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE DEPRESSION
DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS
DETACHED FROM A SINGLE CONVECTIVE BAND IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE...PRESUMABLY A SYMPTOM OF CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT...BASED ON A BLEND OF
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB.

GLOBAL MODELS STILL FORECAST THE VERTICAL SHEAR TO DECREASE DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE CYCLONE WILL
GRADUALLY BE MOVING OVER MARGINALLY WARM WATERS AND WILL BEGIN TO
INGEST A RELATIVELY DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS FROM THE NORTH.
THE LATTER TWO FACTORS WOULD LIKELY OFFSET ANY POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE CURRENT
ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM. BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS...AN ABRUPT
INCREASE IN SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND SUB-26C WATERS SHOULD HASTEN THE
DEMISE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY AND REMAINS A LITTLE BELOW THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE
THE CYCLONE DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW SOONER THAN WHAT IS
CURRENTLY INDICATED.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/8. AN EAST-NORTHEAST TO
WEST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION
SHOULD STEER IT ON A WESTWARD COURSE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. BY
48 HOURS...A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING BETWEEN 130W AND 140W
SHOULD CAUSE A BREAK IN THE RIDGE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE WEAK NATURE
OF THE CYCLONE AT THAT POINT...THE EFFECTS OF THE TROUGH ARE
EXPECTED TO MINIMAL AND A MORE WESTERLY MOTION IS ASSUMED LATER IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON A BLEND OF
THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK AND THE UKMET/ECWMF MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 12.2N 133.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 12.2N 134.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 12.3N 135.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 12.4N 137.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 12.7N 138.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 13.5N 141.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 20/0000Z 14.0N 145.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 21/0000Z 13.5N 150.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.