Gert brushing Bermuda; a new all-time 1-day rainfall record for NYC

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:30 PM GMT on August 15, 2011

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Tropical Storm Gert, the 7th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, is here. Gert's formation on August 14 marks the 4th earliest date for the season's 7th storm. Only 2005, 1995, and 1936 have had an earlier formation of the season's 7th storm. Gert will pass very close to Bermuda today, but thus far the island has had no wind or rain from Gert, with top winds at the Bermuda Airport of just 9 mph as of 10 am EDT. Radar out of Bermuda shows the rains from Gert are staying just offshore, moving northward, parallel to the island. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and has found that Gert has not changed much in intensity since last night. Top surface winds seen by their SFMR instrument this morning as of 10am EDT were 48 mph, though higher winds of 58 mph that may be erroneous due to rain interference were measured. It currently appears that Gert's northerly motion will keep virtually all of the storm's rains just offshore from from Bermuda. Gert should not trouble any land areas after moving past Bermuda.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Gert from the Bermuda radar .

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance we've been tracking over the past few days in the open Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, Invest 93L, has regenerated a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles today and Tuesday as it moves westwards through the islands at 15 - 20 mph. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so could begin to organize over the next few days as it tracks across the Caribbean. The latest 06Z run of the NOGAPS model is showing weak development of 93L once it reaches the western Caribbean, with a track over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. Stay tuned.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall for the past 2 days from the Long Island, NY radar.

New York City sets an all-time 1-day rainfall record
A long series of "training" thunderstorms that each moved along the same path deluged the New York City and Newark areas yesterday, smashing an all-time 1-day rainfall record at New York City's JFK Airport, which recorded 7.80 inches of rain. It was the most rain at JFK since record keeping began in 1948. The previous record was a 6.3" deluge on June 30, 1984. New York City's official measuring site, Central Park, got 5.81" yesterday, the fifth wettest day on record there. The 6.40" that fell on Newark, NJ yesterday was that city's 2nd heaviest 1-day rainfall in history, next to the 6.73" that fell on November 3, 1977.

Jeff Masters

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2038. MTWX
Quoting Tazmanian:
.

Downside of working the night shift for me Taz. Sleep all day work all night, just stop in when I get a couple minutes between outages/jobs...
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
18z HWRF

938 mbs



Yikes.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Its fixed now kori


Oh you.
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18z HWRF

938 mbs

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


when I click the link I get an error message kori, cant read it


Should be fixed now.
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Its fixed now kori
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00z TVCN has moved south, but the ICVN takes it to 93 knots.

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
.
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114053
Quoting KoritheMan:
I question who is still up at this hour, but for anyone that is, I just finished a lengthy blog entry on the tropics. Check it out.


That was strange, I clicked on it and it was one of my blogs about STS-135.. but it said it was posted by you. I refreshed and it went back to what it should be. Great update.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


when I click the link I get an error message kori, cant read it
Yup, same here.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
90 hours, beginning to undergo cyclongensis.


Becomes a cyclone by 108.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
2027. MTWX
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


when I click the link I get an error message kori, cant read it

I did too... they must be doing maintenance or something...
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90 hours, beginning to undergo cyclongensis.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012
Quoting KoritheMan:
I question who is still up at this hour, but for anyone that is, I just finished a lengthy blog entry on the tropics. Check it out.


when I click the link I get an error message kori, cant read it
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2023. MTWX
This blog never dies... What the heck is going on??
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Quoting MTWX:

I was curious myself!!


93L has little to no storms with it, gert lost its chance of becoming a hurricane. Nothing really to talk about....
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Night
Member Since: July 29, 2011 Posts: 9 Comments: 5
2019. MTWX
Quoting mcluvincane:
test

I was curious myself!!
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test
Member Since: June 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1338
2017. ackee
I must admit that 93L structure sure looks like a storm in the making on VISBLE better go over my family storm kit just in case 93l makes an unexpected vist near jamaica
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Northshore is what I was referring to.
A nice top down ride to work in the AM.

L8R.


If that is the case, then you guys could definitely see upper 60s, with the light northerly flow in place.
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In my dream I was asked by the people to climb high into the sky, to look for hurricanes on the horizon.

Fearful of this awkward crow's nest they placed me in, I fulfilled their request, and as I rose higher and higher in the sky, a place kept echoing in my mind ...

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2014. MTWX
Quoting atmoaggie:
My NWS forecast for tonight is 67 F...

Expecting ~70 F, in reality.

Think we'll see upper 60s? Regardless, it's better than the usual roast-through-the-night.

Amen to that!! Our low tonight is suppose to be 62! Beats the snot out of the 80 degree lows we had last week!
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2013. angiest
Quoting HurricaneNewb:
up to 42 hrs at least its not..


The only thing I can see that *might* be it is further north than expected, a possible low that is passing over Cuba between 42 and 48 hours.
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Apparent Low level circulation around 13.2n: 42.5w, it is near that convective blowup likely associated with the ITCZ.
Member Since: July 29, 2011 Posts: 9 Comments: 5
Quoting angiest:
As near as I can tell, GFS is not developing 93L this time.
up to 42 hrs at least its not..
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Quoting atmoaggie:
A break from the roast-through-the-night is welcomed, regardless.


Agreed. Looking at the seven day forecast, highs might return to more seasonal levels late this week.
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Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5238
Quoting atmoaggie:
Reading back...

Gustav supposedly did what? Certainly not through the Florida Straits, he didn't.



Somewhat of an oddity, track-wise, to be honest.


Gustav is an excellent example that weaker systems are not as susceptible to mountainous terrain as the stronger ones. This is why I am always concerned when a system is still weak at Hispaniola's latitude.
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2007. angiest
As near as I can tell, GFS is not developing 93L this time.

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Quoting KoritheMan:


Areas away from the south shore of Pontchartrain might.
Northshore is what I was referring to.
A nice top down ride to work in the AM.

L8R.
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Quoting atmoaggie:
My NWS forecast for tonight is 67 F...

Expecting ~70 F, in reality.

Think we'll see upper 60s?


Areas away from the south shore of Pontchartrain might.
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Reading back...

Gustav supposedly did what? Certainly not through the Florida Straits, he didn't.



Somewhat of an oddity, track-wise, to be honest.
like he knew to miss all the higher elevations and just plot his track were he saw the least resistance.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Touche.

Being a Louisiana native, I've never had to do that. Ever.
My NWS forecast for tonight is 67 F...

Expecting ~70 F, in reality.

Think we'll see upper 60s? Regardless, it's better than the usual roast-through-the-night.
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Quoting ackee:
QUESTION the other system the models are devloping will the MJO be in place at that time see a lot DRY air in the central Atlantic


Yes, it will
Member Since: June 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1338
Reading back...

Gustav supposedly did what? Certainly not through the Florida Straits, he didn't.



Somewhat of an oddity, track-wise, to be honest.
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sorry link to were you can click on the timeframe)Link
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1999. ackee
QUESTION the other system the models are devloping will the MJO be in place at that time see a lot DRY air in the central Atlantic
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Quoting bluenosedave:


Fair enough. But you don't have to shovel it out of your driveway.


Touche.

Being a Louisiana native, I've never had to do that. Ever.
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Quoting angiest:

If it weren't for the weak steering up ahead, it almost seems a little like Claudette.


If you mean in terms of track, I disagree. The Texas ridge is still holding strong, and should for at least another week.
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ooz gfs link Link
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93L has a developing mid level circulation beginning to intensify seen on satellite imagery with the evident rotation to the cloud mass. Sustained convection would allow this circulation to move down to the surface and promote surface cyclogenesis. Dry air, wind shear and SSTs are all in the system's favor for development, I put chances at TC probabilities around 40% in the next 48 hours.
Member Since: July 29, 2011 Posts: 9 Comments: 5
Quoting KoritheMan:


Yes, but the trade winds are still pretty fast in this area, as they usually are. Deceleration could occur tomorrow, though. We shall see.


Trade winds have decreased to 15kts as of earlier this AM, we should see 93L slow down to 15mph soon.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012
00z gfs running at 12hrs so far
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Quoting SherwoodSpirit:


Yes and YIKES!
hahaha :)


And that's the 8/15/11 06 run, the 08/15/11 18 run brings it a little closer if not on and up the coast.

The 00 6/16/11 run is now just starting. Can't wait to see if it moves even further west. Of course it's several days out.
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1991. yoboi
i think harvey and irene will form this year
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Quoting KoritheMan:


A cold rain is actually the worst aspect of winter to me. Ugh. So uncomfortable.


Fair enough. But you don't have to shovel it out of your driveway.
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1989. ackee
Quoting tropicfreak:


Oh I believe it will develop ackee, it has 5 kt shear, hot waters, dry air doesn't seem to be much of a problem, it is also forecasted to slow down a bit.
well if 93L develops near jamaica would remind me of GUSTAV that took a lot of us here in jam off Guard
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1988. Grothar
Quoting HurricaneNewb:
reminds me as a warrant 4 how many really meant it lol)


At least they called you MR.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23718

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.