Gert brushing Bermuda; a new all-time 1-day rainfall record for NYC

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:30 PM GMT on August 15, 2011

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Tropical Storm Gert, the 7th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, is here. Gert's formation on August 14 marks the 4th earliest date for the season's 7th storm. Only 2005, 1995, and 1936 have had an earlier formation of the season's 7th storm. Gert will pass very close to Bermuda today, but thus far the island has had no wind or rain from Gert, with top winds at the Bermuda Airport of just 9 mph as of 10 am EDT. Radar out of Bermuda shows the rains from Gert are staying just offshore, moving northward, parallel to the island. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and has found that Gert has not changed much in intensity since last night. Top surface winds seen by their SFMR instrument this morning as of 10am EDT were 48 mph, though higher winds of 58 mph that may be erroneous due to rain interference were measured. It currently appears that Gert's northerly motion will keep virtually all of the storm's rains just offshore from from Bermuda. Gert should not trouble any land areas after moving past Bermuda.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Gert from the Bermuda radar .

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance we've been tracking over the past few days in the open Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, Invest 93L, has regenerated a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles today and Tuesday as it moves westwards through the islands at 15 - 20 mph. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so could begin to organize over the next few days as it tracks across the Caribbean. The latest 06Z run of the NOGAPS model is showing weak development of 93L once it reaches the western Caribbean, with a track over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. Stay tuned.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall for the past 2 days from the Long Island, NY radar.

New York City sets an all-time 1-day rainfall record
A long series of "training" thunderstorms that each moved along the same path deluged the New York City and Newark areas yesterday, smashing an all-time 1-day rainfall record at New York City's JFK Airport, which recorded 7.80 inches of rain. It was the most rain at JFK since record keeping began in 1948. The previous record was a 6.3" deluge on June 30, 1984. New York City's official measuring site, Central Park, got 5.81" yesterday, the fifth wettest day on record there. The 6.40" that fell on Newark, NJ yesterday was that city's 2nd heaviest 1-day rainfall in history, next to the 6.73" that fell on November 3, 1977.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
The whole state gets raked by 288.

Seems like a Tampa landfall.

Quite a run.
watching runs like these make you feel like you just got off the Tempest ?? ;)
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Quoting weatherman12345:
link anyone for gfs


Link
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15921

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Pretty consistent track/intensity shown by the GFS run-to-run. Same with the ECMWF. Interesting weeks coming up for sure.
Uh, not really. The track has changed with reach run. The synoptic pattern is still up in the air, but definitely favors a Gulf storm.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Headed for the GOM by 252.

Strong storm.

Headed towards FL by 276.


DOOM! May I ask what kind of shower curtains for that scenario?
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878


Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15921

Quoting robert88:
I feel bad for Texas dealing with their death ridge. Mother Nature will balance it out in time. Hopefully it won't be a major that does it though. 93L is ingesting some nice dry sinking air like a vacuum cleaner. I thought everyone was saying dry air isn't a problem for 93L. :)
That ridge is forecast to break down some by the GFS, hence why the EATL wave is heading into the central and eastern Gulf.
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Hispaniola is SO DOOM if that plans out
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Headed for the GOM by 252.

Strong storm.

Headed towards FL by 276.
Pretty consistent track/intensity shown by the GFS run-to-run. Same with the ECMWF. Interesting weeks coming up for sure.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Traverses Hispaniola and Cuba heading WNW.

This is going to be fun...




i think there still 700,000 some in live in tent city so why where are saying this is going too be fun i dont think any one there will be haveing fun i think they need too start thinking about moveing evere one out of tent city in Hispaniola


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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Traverses Hispaniola and Cuba heading WNW.

This is going to be fun...
Not for the Haitians. Hispaniola, and more particularly Haiti has got to be cursed beyond help (whether this pans out or not, that country/island "attracts" and receives more doom than any other I can think of...)
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I feel bad for Texas dealing with their death ridge. Mother Nature will balance it out in time. Hopefully it won't be a major that does it though. 93L is ingesting some nice dry sinking air like a vacuum cleaner. I thought everyone was saying dry air isn't a problem for 93L. :)
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The whole state gets raked by 288.

Seems like a Tampa landfall.

Quite a run.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15921
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Also shows a closed isobar off the SC coast.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
u guys are so hooked on models ugh

(puking)
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1983
2073. MTWX
Wow! Thinking this next couple weeks is going to be really interesting!
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Headed for the GOM by 252.

Strong storm.

Headed towards FL by 276.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15921
One huge swirl of low to mid level clouds. If the convection can ever get going, it will be in pretty decent shape.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Traverses Hispaniola and Cuba heading WNW.

This is going to be fun...
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15921
Landfall over HispaƱola as a decent hurricane. Still interested about that low emerging off Africa:

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Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15921
can i see the doom and gloom for the gom model run?
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180 hours below; interesting low moving off Africa:

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Quoting angiest:
GFS shows something interesting coming off Africa at hour 180.
Yep. It's been indicating that for several runs now.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
whats makeing this go in too MX
That persistent Texas ridge.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Yes



My god look at those ssts in the GOM, especially around the LA coast and SW FL!
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
2062. angiest
GFS shows something interesting coming off Africa at hour 180.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766

Quoting TomTaylor:

However, they base their forecasts around conditions which will determine how conducive or non conducive the deep tropics will be for storm activity.
Strange. I've never encountered this in their forecasts. Is there any evidence for this?
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whats makeing this go in too MX
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Hurricane Harvey has a nice ring to it.

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15921
Quoting angiest:


And that is 93L on HWRF?


Yes

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15921
Quoting dfwstormwatch:
Link
im starting to see a spin just west of the islands now as well as some storms


MARK
13.6N 64.8W

/keeperofthegate off
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1983
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
GFS is much stronger and farther NE this run.

More HWRF:



Could make things intresting as it heads into the hot ssts of the NW Caribbean and the GOM.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Speaking of too many systems lately, 2011 is currently the second most active season in the past ten years, behind 2005. I know that doesn't mean much, but do you think, given the recent activity the Atlantic basin has had, we may be able to reach or surpass last years number?

2010 had three named storms down by 8/15/10.

2011 has seven named storms down.

It's certainly a possibility. CSU and NOAA are both calling for around 16-17 storms. However, they (not entirely sure about NOAA, but definitely CSU) base their forecasts around conditions which will determine how conducive or non conducive the deep tropics will be for storm activity. So far this year, we already have 3 storms which formed along fronts, outside of the tropics. Based off that one might expect that the numbers from CSU and NOAA should be corrected to around 17-19.

For that reason I expect 17 storms this year, but more and more I'm starting to feel like this number could get surpassed. We'll see how it works out, but I wouldn't be surprised to see us get awfully close (withing 1 storm) to last year's numbers. Especially given the fact that climatalogically speaking, we should see 8 more storms. We already have had 7 and we are expected to see a slightly above average year...put two and two together and it's shaping up to the point where we should see at least 15 storms.


Keep in mind that's just named storms. I expect ACE, hurricane, and major hurricane numbers should be lower than they were last year.
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2054. angiest
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
GFS is much stronger and farther NE this run.

More HWRF:



And that is 93L on HWRF?
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
We'll have to see if that high builds in.

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15921
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
GFS is much stronger and farther NE this run.



ouch
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Quoting KoritheMan:


You said the same thing right before I did. :P


what can I say, I gotta quick trigger finger hahaha
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GFS is much stronger and farther NE this run.

More HWRF:

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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


what???? hahaha


You said the same thing right before I did. :P
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Gonna catch a piece of the night shift before I take the wife out to breakfast.

Strengthening just east of the islands.

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Quoting KoritheMan:


Oh you.


what???? hahaha
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
18z HWRF

938 mbs



LOL! Good old HWRF.. making everything a Category 5.
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2044. MTWX
Quoting KoritheMan:


Should be fixed now.

Yep.. Good read... Thanks!
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Quoting Jedkins01:


I'm talking about when you begin to some up weather events around the world, unusual weather is becoming more usual. It doesn't even take a scientist to acknowledge that. However it becomes all the more obvious when you begin to study past weather when apposed to more recent. Not just extreme localized events, but global, large scale weather patterns are changing in strange ways.

I'm not going to argue with you, but I hope someday you'll realize that humanity can't continue on this self destructive path and expect different results.

Keeping pushing for Drill baby, Drill, and see where it gets us.
Plus one. Really liked that last line.
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Anything interesting coming out of the 00z models yet?
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
Evenin everyone, just stopping by

reading back...


Quoting HurricaneDean07:
There is many ways that this year is completely different from last year,
1. The Ridges of High pressure are set up differently which will cuase more tracks westward toward the CONUS/up the east coast(Earl tracks).

2. Last year was a strengthening La Nina, which typically cuases Many storms in the Caribbean to head into Central America/Mexico, and also cuases troughiness(which cuases many Out to sea Hurricanes).
This is Different from this year which is a weakening la Nina, neutral, that makes some slight El nino conditions and Focuses more storms toward the US.(2005)

3. SST's(Higher than 2010), Dry air(Slightly higher than 2010), Wind Shear(Slightly lower than 2010)

With all these dynamics you have a season that has a slightly lower amount of storms than 2010, though more storms focused west of 75W. and with the above normal beginning of the season this will bring us close to 2010's Numbers though this is the only thing they may end up having in common.
Good points, except that SSTs were warmer last year. Also the amount of wind shear for 2010 vs 2011 is hard to say since (as far as I am aware) there is no simple way to go about comparing the two. I will agree that there is less dry air this year.
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Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15921
Link
im starting to see a spin just west of the islands now as well as some storms
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2038. MTWX
Quoting Tazmanian:
.

Downside of working the night shift for me Taz. Sleep all day work all night, just stop in when I get a couple minutes between outages/jobs...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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