Gert brushing Bermuda; a new all-time 1-day rainfall record for NYC

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:30 PM GMT on August 15, 2011

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Tropical Storm Gert, the 7th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, is here. Gert's formation on August 14 marks the 4th earliest date for the season's 7th storm. Only 2005, 1995, and 1936 have had an earlier formation of the season's 7th storm. Gert will pass very close to Bermuda today, but thus far the island has had no wind or rain from Gert, with top winds at the Bermuda Airport of just 9 mph as of 10 am EDT. Radar out of Bermuda shows the rains from Gert are staying just offshore, moving northward, parallel to the island. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and has found that Gert has not changed much in intensity since last night. Top surface winds seen by their SFMR instrument this morning as of 10am EDT were 48 mph, though higher winds of 58 mph that may be erroneous due to rain interference were measured. It currently appears that Gert's northerly motion will keep virtually all of the storm's rains just offshore from from Bermuda. Gert should not trouble any land areas after moving past Bermuda.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Gert from the Bermuda radar .

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance we've been tracking over the past few days in the open Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, Invest 93L, has regenerated a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles today and Tuesday as it moves westwards through the islands at 15 - 20 mph. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so could begin to organize over the next few days as it tracks across the Caribbean. The latest 06Z run of the NOGAPS model is showing weak development of 93L once it reaches the western Caribbean, with a track over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. Stay tuned.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall for the past 2 days from the Long Island, NY radar.

New York City sets an all-time 1-day rainfall record
A long series of "training" thunderstorms that each moved along the same path deluged the New York City and Newark areas yesterday, smashing an all-time 1-day rainfall record at New York City's JFK Airport, which recorded 7.80 inches of rain. It was the most rain at JFK since record keeping began in 1948. The previous record was a 6.3" deluge on June 30, 1984. New York City's official measuring site, Central Park, got 5.81" yesterday, the fifth wettest day on record there. The 6.40" that fell on Newark, NJ yesterday was that city's 2nd heaviest 1-day rainfall in history, next to the 6.73" that fell on November 3, 1977.

Jeff Masters

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Picturesque image of Tropical Storm Gert right here. You would never be able to find a better looking satellite picture:
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
2 blobs over the central Atlantic looking good tonight:



Interesting. Persistence is key.
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TD Six-E appears to be getting better organized...Tropical Storm Fernanda may not be too far away.
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I win :)
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SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE TROPICAL
WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE NOT FALLING
AND DEVELOPMENT...IF AT ALL...OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR
UNTIL IT REACHES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IN A FEW DAYS.
THIS WAVE HAS
A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GERT...LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE TROPICAL
WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE NOT FALLING
AND DEVELOPMENT...IF AT ALL...OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR
UNTIL IT REACHES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IN A FEW DAYS. THIS WAVE HAS
A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GERT...LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE TROPICAL
WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE NOT FALLING
AND DEVELOPMENT...IF AT ALL...OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR
UNTIL IT REACHES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IN A FEW DAYS. THIS WAVE HAS
A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
NNNN
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now the big question what percentage will invest93l be at on this update
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Quoting Clearwater1:
Each gfs run moves that yet to form storm a little further west. Of course it's days out, but I've noticed in the past, the models start out east then all the way west then work their way back east. IMO this could happen. Also, if you notice, it has another huge storm develop, just about the time the first one slams the east coast or wherever. (if it happens at all) The CV train is starting, at least in the computer's mind. In my mind as well.


Actually the 12Z was the most west hitting Central LA the 18Z was most east hitting the East coast and now the 00Z was a little westward of the last one hitting Florida...anywhere from the Gulf Coast to Florida East coast is fair game
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2129. geepy86
Quoting ElConando:



The NMM has a snowball earth for the Next 2 million years staring next millennium.

And when does that start?
j/k
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Each gfs run moves that yet to form storm a little further west. Of course it's days out, but I've noticed in the past, the models start out east then all the way west then work their way back east. IMO this could happen. Also, if you notice, it has another huge storm develop, just about the time the first one slams the east coast or wherever. (if it happens at all) The CV train is starting, at least in the computer's mind. In my mind as well.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Could happen, got down to nearly the teens in early-2010, that setup reminds me of this pattern.. jk ;)



The NMM has a snowball earth for the Next 2 million years staring next millennium.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
You should just stop your model run at 6 days or so.. and take that with a grain of salt. The GFS does show this system developing by the end of this week, so does the NOGAPS, ECMWF & CMC. Worth watching.

FWIW, 93L & Emily never had this strong of model support. No system has this year so far.
This kinda reminds me of Danielle from last year. We had the GFS and ECMWF both developing it into a major and moving into the northeast coast 300 hours out. We saw how that turned out. But nevertheless, they nailed the development of the system, and that's what we should watch for, rather than what state it affects, if you will.
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2 blobs over the central Atlantic looking good tonight:

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the convection is starting to come back...
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Quoting robj144:
So, just doing an extremely rough calculation, if one factors in the size of the wind field into the ACE, integrated ACE would depend on the size of the storm cubed. So, if one storm had wind field radius of hurricane winds that was twice the radius of another storm, but they both had the same max. winds, the larger storm has something on the order of 8 times more energy. This was very crude calculation that could be refined and made more sophisticated, however.
not surprised. Thanks for doing that.

Quoting Levi32:
A more colorful and telling comparison:

Ciriaco spent exactly 11 days as a major hurricane. Ivan did also, with the exception of three 6-hour increments where he was a Cat 2. Ciriaco spent a short time as a Cat 4, while Ivan was a Cat 4 or Cat 5 for the majority of his lifetime.

Ciriaco:



Ivan:

True, but Ivan lasted for 23 days, while the Ciriaco storm lasted 32. That explains why it has a higher ACE total.

Although, I am very skeptical of those intensity points on that WU map...looks like a lot of sketchy gestimating going on




I mean its quite unlikely that a storm would remain a cat 3 after crossing over Puerto Rico and the 10,000ft mountains of Hispaniola
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
You should just stop your model run at 6 days or so.. and take that with a grain of salt. The GFS does show this system developing by the end of this week, so does the NOGAPS, ECMWF & CMC. Worth watching.

FWIW, 93L & Emily never had this strong of model support. No system has this year so far.


The European is usually the deciding factor for me. If it's developing a system consistently, I listen.

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2121. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting KoritheMan:

Do you calculate these values yourself? If so, that's rather impressive.


I don't need a hobby with that much math. I found that program that UCF developed & gave to their sister corporation, that you have to now pay to see.

Some how Tropical Atlantic got a hold of it & is posting the same data in format on a beta site. They're the ones that came up with that good decoded Hurricane Hunter site a few years ago. A few storms ago, the program I'd been searching for since the start of season was there. Like before at ucf, it's so long, better to gleam from it. Even my comment on the trends. I glanced at the trend data.
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You should just stop your model run at 6 days or so.. and take that with a grain of salt. The GFS does show this system developing by the end of this week, so does the NOGAPS, ECMWF & CMC. Worth watching.

FWIW, 93L & Emily never had this strong of model support. No system has this year so far.
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Quoting SavannahStorm:




982mb over SE Georgia. 987mb still moving through SC.

Don't get too nervous, though- we are talking 10-14 days away!
Yeah I think once it gets close to the islands "if it develops" then we'll have a better handle on where it is going.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
981mb and continues to intensify a few millibars as it skirts northward. The specifics should be taken with a grain of salt. The main thing to note is that models foresee the overall steering pattern favoring tropical cyclones in the general direction of the United States.



NAO finally went positive after a record breaking 68days negative. Seems a brief return to negative soon with a more substantial positive signal towards the end of the month.
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Quoting KoritheMan:

That's more understandable. From the way you were talking though, it almost sounded like you were referring specifically to systems which originate in the deep tropics, rather than any non-frontal entities in general.
Yeah sorry, I was just responding to random comments made earlier today since I was reading back on the blog.

But anyway, yea climatology favors about 8 more named storms. We've already had 7, so right now it's looking like we should see at least 15 storms. Of course, that doesn't mean we will see 15 storms, but climatology says we should see at least 15 more named storms. Additionally, with above average SSTs over the Atlantic (partially because of the warm AMO, partially because of the NAO), a neutral ENSO (forecasted return of La Nina), the cold PDO, and slightly below average temps over the Gulf of Guinea (and less dry air in the east Atlantic) it is shaping up to be an above average season.

So I expect around 17 storms for next year.
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Quoting scottsvb:
The 2,844 hr run of the BSC model shows snow squalls coming in off the GOM into Tampa-Orlando.....WOW! Lows in the teens


Could happen, got down to nearly the teens in early-2010, that setup reminds me of this pattern.. jk ;)
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The 2,844 hr run of the BSC model shows snow squalls coming in off the GOM into Tampa-Orlando.....WOW! Lows in the teens
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
981mb and continues to intensify a few millibars as it skirts northward. The specifics should be taken with a grain of salt. The main thing to note is that models foresee the overall steering pattern favoring tropical cyclones in the general direction of the United States.
Thanks, I'll be keeping my eye on this throughout the week, since this is the last week of summer for me, back to school Monday for me :)
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Quoting Skyepony:
HWRF & GFDL did a little better in the last 24 then they had been.. Average Position Error (in nautical miles)

Model Name 0hr 24hr 48hr 72hr 96hr 120hr
AEMI 0 131.7 96.0 288.5 373.5 515.9
AEMN 66.2 183.3 168.4 461.1 440.2 509.2
AVNO 85.7 212.6 137.2 498.1 616.9 -
BAMD - 130.5 331.5 780.3 983.7 1123.1
BAMM - 111.8 265.7 720.3 691.5 672.4
BAMS - 149.0 266.9 664.9 547.2 660.8
CEMN 34.7 206.8 - - - -
CLIP - 119.9 265.7 458.6 - -
CLP5 - 138.3 313.1 516.8 704.9 936.2
CMC 49.5 233.3 - - - -
DSHP 0 111.2 265.7 666.9 627.9 672.4
GFDL 22.1 255.6 - 368.7 424.7 -
HWRF 6.4 180.5 - 516.7 712.2 -

LBAR 0 81.1 221.0 484.6 640.1 764.1
LGEM 0 111.2 265.7 666.9 627.9 672.4
NGPS 50.2 289.6 - 897.2 - -
TVCN 0 95.0 399.4 530.3 546.7 -
XTRP 0 154.6 362.3 428.3 744.4 1153.4
Do you calculate these values yourself? If so, that's rather impressive.
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2112. Skyepony (Mod)
HWRF & GFDL did a little better in the last 24 then they had been.. Average Position Error (in nautical miles) for 93L.

Model Name 0hr 24hr 48hr 72hr 96hr 120hr
AEMI 0 131.7 96.0 288.5 373.5 515.9
AEMN 66.2 183.3 168.4 461.1 440.2 509.2
AVNO 85.7 212.6 137.2 498.1 616.9 -
BAMD - 130.5 331.5 780.3 983.7 1123.1
BAMM - 111.8 265.7 720.3 691.5 672.4
BAMS - 149.0 266.9 664.9 547.2 660.8
CEMN 34.7 206.8 - - - -
CLIP - 119.9 265.7 458.6 - -
CLP5 - 138.3 313.1 516.8 704.9 936.2
CMC 49.5 233.3 - - - -
DSHP 0 111.2 265.7 666.9 627.9 672.4
GFDL 22.1 255.6 - 368.7 424.7 -
HWRF 6.4 180.5 - 516.7 712.2 -

LBAR 0 81.1 221.0 484.6 640.1 764.1
LGEM 0 111.2 265.7 666.9 627.9 672.4
NGPS 50.2 289.6 - 897.2 - -
TVCN 0 95.0 399.4 530.3 546.7 -
XTRP 0 154.6 362.3 428.3 744.4 1153.4
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Don't take any model seriously when there is nothing developed and even when we have a storm, anything more than 5 days out is beyond difficult to forecast.

That wave could have the same fate as 93L...We'll just have to wait and see.
+100
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If the ECMWF shows development in the 00Z run...then we are starting to get some consistency. A hurricane could end up in the GOM or the EC could take a hit. This far out in time anything can happen though. What concerns me the most is every model run showing the US getting hit. That tells me the pattern is favored for a US landfall. Once again and like always it's a timing dealio.
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2109. ackee
Quoting MississippiWx:
Don't take any model seriously when there is nothing developed and even when we have a storm, anything more than 5 days out is beyond difficult to forecast.

That wave could have the same fate as 93L...We'll just have to wait and see.
agree would not be suprise it nothing becomes of it
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Hi Miami, how much mb does that say? and in your opinion how far out should we start taking these models seriously?
981mb and continues to intensify a few millibars as it skirts northward. The specifics should be taken with a grain of salt. The main thing to note is that models foresee the overall steering pattern favoring tropical cyclones in the general direction of the United States.
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Don't take any model seriously when there is nothing developed and even when we have a storm, anything more than 5 days out is beyond difficult to forecast.

That wave could have the same fate as 93L...We'll just have to wait and see.
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Quoting TomTaylor:
Well I'm not sure how NOAA makes their forecasts, but CSU definitely does. You can find their forecasts here. They explain all the variables they look at in their seasonal forecast PDFs. From what I can tell, the CSU team over the last few decades has been looking at various variables and how well they correlate to Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity. The variables which correlate the best (the best variables change over time according to them) are then used to predict seasonal activity.

However, the average season sees maybe one or two storms forming off fronts. This year we've had three, therefore I said I would think the CSU and NOAA numbers could technically be changed to around 18.

Obviously, the CSU team wont change these numbers because they want to keep statistical accuracy. NOAA on the other hand is much more straight-forward about their forecasts and has noticeably upped there numbers (12-18 -> 14-19).
That's more understandable. From the way you were talking though, it almost sounded like you were referring specifically to systems which originate in the deep tropics, rather than any non-frontal entities in general.
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meanwhile interesting gfs track for 93l
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Ehhh, sorta. Each one (with the exception of the 12z run) has showed the system tracking over HispaƱola and the Bahamas. Obviously this is meant to be taken with a grain of salt, but overall it suggests that the Greater Antilles and the SE U.S in for something.
It really depends on how much troughing is present over the eastern US during this time. Unfortunately, there is no real way to tell at this point, but the GFS has been indicating more ridging along the eastern seaboard/western Atlantic, along with more troughing across the central and southern US, which to me favors a Gulf of Mexico setup, especially with a system coming from the Caribbean.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Hi Miami, how much mb does that say? and in your opinion how far out should we start taking these models seriously?




982mb over SE Georgia. 987mb still moving through SC.

Don't get too nervous, though- we are talking 10-14 days away!
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2101. ackee
LOK for the GFS to change its track with each run have to see this happen to belive lets we forget same thing with 93L from the GFS so we see do uthink if the system takes that track so many land area would be affected that worst possibe track good night see how 93L look in the morning
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
288 hours:



Moves up Florida into Georgia.
Hi Miami, how much mb does that say? and in your opinion how far out should we start taking these models seriously?
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Quoting KoritheMan:

Uh, not really. The track has changed with reach run. The synoptic pattern is still up in the air, but definitely favors a Gulf storm.
Ehhh, sorta. Each one (with the exception of the 12z run) has showed the system tracking over HispaƱola and the Bahamas. Obviously this is meant to be taken with a grain of salt, but overall it suggests that the Greater Antilles and the SE U.S in for something.
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Quoting KoritheMan:

Strange. I've never encountered this in their forecasts. Is there any evidence for this?
Well I'm not sure how NOAA makes their forecasts, but CSU definitely does. You can find their forecasts here. They explain all the variables they look at in their seasonal forecast PDFs. From what I can tell, the CSU team over the last few decades has been looking at various variables and how well they correlate to Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity. The variables which correlate the best (the best variables change over time according to them) are then used to predict seasonal activity.

However, the average season sees maybe one or two storms forming off fronts. This year we've had three, therefore I said I would think the CSU and NOAA numbers could technically be changed to around 18.

Obviously, the CSU team wont change these numbers because they want to keep statistical accuracy. NOAA on the other hand is much more straight-forward about their forecasts and has noticeably upped there numbers (12-18 -> 14-19).
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
288 hours:



Moves up Florida into Georgia.


Geez, GFS, leave us out of this! The 18Z run got me riled up enough. And everyone knows hurricanes don't hit Georgia...





...now I wonder what time Home Depot opens in the morning...
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One of our newer models likes 93L



5-min intensity chart (Pretty cool)

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remove so i wont get banned seen like no one got it lol
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FL gets slammed this run...ouch
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Quoting tropicfreak:


DOOM! May I ask what kind of shower curtains for that scenario?
curtain won't cut it, you'll need a full hard enclosure....
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Tampa FL IS DOOM landfall.
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288 hours:



Moves up Florida into Georgia.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Pretty consistent track/intensity shown by the GFS run-to-run. Same with the ECMWF. Interesting weeks coming up for sure.

The ECMWF is the one to watch, as this system it is developing is really the first time it is showing something strong. Good thing both GFS and ECMWF are over 200 hours out, so these tracks can change, but if the ECMWF shows development in its run I believe it.
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63 W - 14 N looks like a CoC:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-ir4.htm l
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
The whole state gets raked by 288.

Seems like a Tampa landfall.

Quite a run.
watching runs like these make you feel like you just got off the Tempest ?? ;)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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