Gert brushing Bermuda; a new all-time 1-day rainfall record for NYC

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:30 PM GMT on August 15, 2011

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Tropical Storm Gert, the 7th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, is here. Gert's formation on August 14 marks the 4th earliest date for the season's 7th storm. Only 2005, 1995, and 1936 have had an earlier formation of the season's 7th storm. Gert will pass very close to Bermuda today, but thus far the island has had no wind or rain from Gert, with top winds at the Bermuda Airport of just 9 mph as of 10 am EDT. Radar out of Bermuda shows the rains from Gert are staying just offshore, moving northward, parallel to the island. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and has found that Gert has not changed much in intensity since last night. Top surface winds seen by their SFMR instrument this morning as of 10am EDT were 48 mph, though higher winds of 58 mph that may be erroneous due to rain interference were measured. It currently appears that Gert's northerly motion will keep virtually all of the storm's rains just offshore from from Bermuda. Gert should not trouble any land areas after moving past Bermuda.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Gert from the Bermuda radar .

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance we've been tracking over the past few days in the open Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, Invest 93L, has regenerated a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles today and Tuesday as it moves westwards through the islands at 15 - 20 mph. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so could begin to organize over the next few days as it tracks across the Caribbean. The latest 06Z run of the NOGAPS model is showing weak development of 93L once it reaches the western Caribbean, with a track over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. Stay tuned.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall for the past 2 days from the Long Island, NY radar.

New York City sets an all-time 1-day rainfall record
A long series of "training" thunderstorms that each moved along the same path deluged the New York City and Newark areas yesterday, smashing an all-time 1-day rainfall record at New York City's JFK Airport, which recorded 7.80 inches of rain. It was the most rain at JFK since record keeping began in 1948. The previous record was a 6.3" deluge on June 30, 1984. New York City's official measuring site, Central Park, got 5.81" yesterday, the fifth wettest day on record there. The 6.40" that fell on Newark, NJ yesterday was that city's 2nd heaviest 1-day rainfall in history, next to the 6.73" that fell on November 3, 1977.

Jeff Masters

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Good morning... Time for some coffee and a pop tart (brown sugar and cinnamon)























Member Since: June 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1404


scary stuff next week. If models pan out which they have been very consistant the last 3 runs. The east coast will have a Hurricane to deal with in the near future.
Member Since: June 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1404
Quoting LargoFl:


as of the 4am NHC designation 93L still is at 20% of maybe developing, something to watch


I think 93 is less and less of a threat for the conus. Lets hope it remains weak for the people of the carib. They dont need a hurricane down there.
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2185. Xandra
Quoting xtremeweathertracker:

Hey guys you know we have a climate change blog!! You guys could rule there!!

A tip! ;) If you not like to read something about the climate maybe it is time for you to move on to another blog with just weather, for instance Levi's blog.

Maybe you could rule there instead for trying to decide this blog's agenda. Dr Masters is the one who decide what one may write/or not write on this blog and not someone else.

State of the Climate, Global Analysis July 2011!

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2184. LargoFl

Quoting emguy:


You are correct. It is nested in a large envelope of supportive winds and moisture...of course...they are on the move with it. These things take time, but 93L is likely go for liftoff with time. Speaking of which, people say this does not have time...but this has plenty of time before the extreme westen Carribean. Expect it to slow down with time and expect it to gain some lattitude as well.

as of the 4am NHC designation 93L still is at 20% of maybe developing, something to watch
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2183. emguy
The fantom witch hunt continues for all with this one. ;) Very interesting runs continue, but still a ghost with a broad swinging reach at all US coastal states in the Atlantic basin...Maybe we just look at 93L and see what it does/does not do, then refocus on the long range later. At least 93L is there right here and now and has the potential to be a player.

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I don't think we will see too many waves develop very far E this season. Sea surface temps are a little cooler than last year off Africa and the SAL is strong as well. I am thinking around 50W for the majority of the storms this season...jmo
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TS.Gert's_6amGMT_ATCF : Starting 15August_6amGMT and ending 16August_6amGMT

The 4 short line-segments represent TS.Gert's path and
the longest line-segment is the straightline projection.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12amGMT then 6amGMT :
TropicalStormGert's travel-speed was 15.3mph(24.7k/h) on a heading of 29.3degrees(NNE)
TS.Gert was headed toward passage over Sandnessjoen,Norway ~6days22hours from now

Copy&paste 30.6n63.4w-31.5n63.3w, 31.5n63.3w-32.7n62.9w, 32.7n62.9w-33.9n62.2w, 33.9n62.2w-35.5n61.1w, ssj, 33.9n62.2w-66.03n12.52e into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping (for 16August_12amGMT)
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
ECMWF has a rapidly intensifying hurricane at the end of the run. Telling by the position of the trough, it appears like the system would make a turn with a northerly component.

(Pressure appears to be 964mb, for anyone that's interested).

looks like it has a strong wave coming off Africa as well
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93L should turn into a TD if it flares up around the center of its circulation as it crosses the very warm eddy over the next couple hours, but if it keeps up the current speed with little cloud cover without flaring up over its now identifiable circulation.... looks like it will run into the Yucatan as a tropical storm to weak hurricane at best... then reform in the western Gulf and hopefully give Texas and Oklahoma some needed showers as a tropical storm.
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Quoting islander101010:
these systems should start developing out near the cv island its aug 16 the season is open for business. they named them cape verde not windwards islands for a reason.
yeah its getting its act together now look at the structure of it right now
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
ECMWF has a rapidly intensifying hurricane at the end of the run. Telling by the position of the trough, it appears like the system would make a turn with a northerly component.

(Pressure appears to be 964mb, for anyone that's interested).

east coast storm u think
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Quoting KoritheMan:

Not a chance. It is still lingering in the east Atlantic, and dry air will inhibit development in the near-term. This shouldn't begin flaring up until reaching 50W or so.
these systems should start developing out near the cv island its aug 16 the season is open for business. they named them cape verde not windwards islands for a reason.
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ECMWF has a rapidly intensifying hurricane at the end of the run. Telling by the position of the trough, it appears like the system would make a turn with a northerly component.

(Pressure appears to be 964mb, for anyone that's interested).

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Can't believe that we have had nothing but tropical storms! Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Don, Emily, Franklin, and now Gert. Smh!
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Gert is about to be picked up by the front and become extratropical. R.I.P. Gert
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Quoting aspectre:
Just found this interesting. In the 6days between 10August_12amGMT and 16August_12amGMT,
93L sailed* the 3233miles([]kilometres) distance between Conakry,Guinea to St.Vincent of the Grenadines...

...on a route that's a decent approximation of a GreatCircle^route (as shown by the red line)...
considering it's also travelling the route described by Fermat'sLeastTimePrinciple as applied to sailing.
ie The fastest route as well as nearly the shortest.

Copy&paste cky-svd, 9.6n13.5w, 9.8n15.0w, 9.9n16.5w, 10.0n18.0w, 10.2n19.5w, 10.4n21.0w, 10.6n22.8w, 10.8n24.6w, 11.0n26.5w, 11.2n28.4w, 11.3n30.0w, 11.3n31.5w, 11.6n32.6w, 11.7n33.9w, 12.0n37.0w, 12.2n39.5w, 12.3n42.5w, 12.5n45.4w, 12.8n48.1w, 13.0n50.6w, 13.2n52.9w, 13.4n55.1w, 13.5n57.3w, 13.6n59.3w, 13.6n61.3w [coordinates] into the
GreatCircleMapper then connect the dots (coordinates) with a - (dash) if you want to know a better approximation of the distance 93L actually travelled.


* quite literally: think of 93L's convection as the mast of a reallyTallShip
^ The straightest path with the shortest distance between two points on a sphere; or an oblate spheroid as is the case with Earth
That IS interesting. Thanks for sharing.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
Hey Wes, you don't happen to have Facebook do you? I can keep you informed better there.
yep! look me up on my email at whol0209@suno.edu
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Found this interesting. In the 6days between 10August_12amGMT and 16August_12amGMT,
93L sailed* the 3246miles(5224kilometres) distance between Conakry,Guinea to St.Vincent...

...on a path that's fairly close to a GreatCircle^route (as shown by the red line), considering it's travelling the path described by Fermat'sLeastTimePrinciple as applied to sailing.
ie The fastest route as well as nearly the shortest.

Copy&paste cky, 9.6n13.5w-13.6n61.3w, svd, 9.6n13.5w, 9.8n15.0w, 9.9n16.5w, 10.0n18.0w, 10.2n19.5w, 10.4n21.0w, 10.6n22.8w, 10.8n24.6w, 11.0n26.5w, 11.2n28.4w, 11.3n30.0w, 11.3n31.5w, 11.6n32.6w, 11.7n33.9w, 12.0n37.0w, 12.2n39.5w, 12.3n42.5w, 12.5n45.4w, 12.8n48.1w, 13.0n50.6w, 13.2n52.9w, 13.4n55.1w, 13.5n57.3w, 13.6n59.3w, 13.6n61.3w into the GreatCircleMapper then connect the dots (coordinates) with a - (dash) if you want to know a better approximation of the distance 93L actually traveled.


* Quite literally: think of 93L's convection as the mast of a reallyTall Ship.
^ The straightest path with the shortest distance between two points on a sphere; or an oblate spheroid as is the case with Earth.
The apparent curvature is due to distortion produced by trying to map a sphere on a flat sheet.
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Hey Wes, you don't happen to have Facebook do you? I can keep you informed better there.
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Quoting bigwes6844:
oh okay is that near the lesser islands?
Yeah.
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Quoting KoritheMan:

Not a chance. It is still lingering in the east Atlantic, and dry air will inhibit development in the near-term. This shouldn't begin flaring up until reaching 50W or so.
oh okay is that near the lesser islands?
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2164. emguy
Quoting LostTomorrows:
93L looks like all it needs to do is to flare p a bit more, because its overall shape and spin on satellite loops looks far more impressive than some of the named storms we've seen this season.


You are correct. It is nested in a large envelope of supportive winds and moisture...of course...they are on the move with it. These things take time, but 93L is likely go for liftoff with time. Speaking of which, people say this does not have time...but this has plenty of time before the extreme westen Carribean. Expect it to slow down with time and expect it to gain some lattitude as well.
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Quoting bigwes6844:
So u think this will be an invest in a day or two?
Not a chance. It is still lingering in the east Atlantic, and dry air will inhibit development in the near-term. This shouldn't begin flaring up until reaching 50W or so.
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Quoting KoritheMan:

What it does show is that the large scale pattern will be favorable for a US landfall from this potential system.
So u think this will be an invest in a day or two?
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93L looks like all it needs to do is to flare p a bit more, because its overall shape and spin on satellite loops looks far more impressive than some of the named storms we've seen this season.
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Quoting bigwes6844:
I said the same thing but this was earlier today and i was like WOW!!
What it does show is that the large scale pattern will be favorable for a US landfall from this potential system.
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Quoting TampaSpin:



the Clips makes a turn it appears.
CLIPR is based on climatology. That Texas high will not allow that.
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Quoting TampaSpin:



the Clips makes a turn it appears.
U think it may enter the GOM or the BOC?
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Quoting KoritheMan:

I doubt it pans out in that exact way, but conditions are certainly there for a hurricane to traverse the Gulf of Mexico. However, our instigator hasn't even developed yet.
I said the same thing but this was earlier today and i was like WOW!!
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Quoting bigwes6844:
Kori,Mississippi This may get u concern a bit. Maybe not so much of you miami.
Watch this!!!
I doubt it pans out in that exact way, but conditions are certainly there for a hurricane to traverse the Gulf of Mexico. However, our instigator hasn't even developed yet.
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Kori,Mississippi This may get u concern a bit. Maybe not so much of you miami.
Watch this!!!
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the Clips makes a turn it appears.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I think you and me are the only people up right now, lol, but wassup?
man miami u would go crazy wen you see this because i went crazy seeing this
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Quoting bigwes6844:
wassup kori, miami, and mississippi gotta show u guys something
Eh?
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Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Quoting bigwes6844:
wassup kori, miami, and mississippi gotta show u guys something
I think you and me are the only people up right now, lol, but wassup?
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wassup kori, miami, and mississippi gotta show u guys something
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00z ECMWF out to 144 hours right now. 93L develops into a tropical storm in the western Caribbean, moves over the Yucatan, and can be noted in the BOC as a moderate tropical storm. The African wave is located northeast of the northernmost Lesser Antilles. Although it appears to be weak in this run, the 12z run also had it as an open wave at this point in time.

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00z CMC, 144 hours:

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Quoting BahaHurican:
Ah. Still waiting to see the Dmax comeback....


look at that upper level outflow

pretty impressive despite the lack of convection at the moment
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Quoting SavannahStorm:


Geez, GFS, leave us out of this! The 18Z run got me riled up enough. And everyone knows hurricanes don't hit Georgia...





...now I wonder what time Home Depot opens in the morning...
I been thinking the way the pattern is setting up... this could be the year to break yall's record. Mostly u guys get hit off a storm that recurves over / just N of the Bahamas. Based on suggested synopics over the next few weeks such a track is within the realm of possibility. Jax to SC low country have a better than usual chance, IMO. HOWEVER, all this hinges on just exactly where that high is at the time a storm approaches, so certainly there's nothing written - even in the sand - yet about this....
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2144. Skyepony (Mod)
Looks like we are beginning to feel a solar storm..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 223 Comments: 39357
Evening everyone.. I see models continue to show what could be a big player in the next few weeks. GFS continuing the USA hits for now. Interested to see what the EURO has in store tonight.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7437
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
You may not like that Neap. brought up "the subject", but lets not attack him please ;)
Actually he didn't. P541 did. But let that pass...

Like shooting fish in a barrel.

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Ah. Still waiting to see the Dmax comeback....


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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE TROPICAL
WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE NOT FALLING
AND DEVELOPMENT...IF AT ALL...OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR
UNTIL IT REACHES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IN A FEW DAYS.
THIS WAVE HAS
A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.


I had to re-read that to understand what they were talking about but I got it now.
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2139. Skyepony (Mod)
That next wave coming off Africa has wrecked some havoc in Nigeria.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 223 Comments: 39357
Picturesque image of Tropical Storm Gert right here. You would never be able to find a better looking satellite picture:
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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