Tropical Depression Seven forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:25 PM GMT on August 14, 2011

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The latest in our unusual number of weak tropical cyclones this season, Tropical Depression Seven, has formed to the southeast of Bermuda. Unless you live in Bermuda, TD 7 is not going to be a concern. Radar out of Bermuda shows an area of rain on the northern side of TD 7 beginning to approach the island, and rain from the storm will likely affect the island tonight and on Monday. TD 7 is not well-organized, and has only limited heavy thunderstorms, as seen on visible satellite images. While wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, dry air surrounds TD 7, and is keeping the storm from intensifying. None of the computer models foresee that TD 7 will ever become more than a weak tropical storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of TD 7.

92L
TD 7 isn't the only system Bermuda needs to watch, Invest 92L is a day behind it, and will follow a path very similar to TD 7's. The disturbance will pass close to Bermuda on Tuesday, bringing the island a second round of tropical rains. However, Invest 92L is very disorganized, as seen on recent visible satellite loops. Dry air and close proximity to TD 7 will likely keep 92L from showing significant development over the next two days, with NHC giving the system just a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa we've been tracking over the past few days, Invest 93L, has fallen apart and is no longer a threat to develop. This system will need to be watched once it enters the Caribbean later this week, though. None of the reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone formation predict development of this system or any new disturbances over the coming week.

Jeff Masters

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1975. MiamiHurricanes09
7:28 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
1974. NOLALawyer
3:35 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
Quoting stillwaiting:
writings on the wall for those who cant see it,almost exact same pattern as last yr.....2011 is 2010 tc season pt 2


You might be right, but I don't want to hear it.

This season is actually worse so far than last year. At least last year there signs of hope.
Member Since: September 3, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 520
1973. CaneHunter031472
3:11 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
Quoting cloudburst2011:



yes i agree totally the east coast is off the hook for 2011...if 93L does form it will move into the caribbean and then up to the yucatan before finally dying in mexico...


Can't wait to hear the HAARP cpnspiracy casters to start their theories.
Member Since: August 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 179
1972. CaneHunter031472
3:10 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
Quoting ILwthrfan:
Just throwing this out there but if we do go through the entire season without a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico or the Northwest Carribean... Oh man is winter going to be fun!


I'm already starting to look at this years winter outlook. If you like cold weather you will love it.
Member Since: August 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 179
1969. MahFL
2:40 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
Only 5kts of shear all the way to the GOM...




As always take with a pinch of salt.
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3492
1968. islander101010
2:37 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
start to see these waves develop right off the coast of africa now its aug 15
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4592
1966. Neapolitan
2:31 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
NEW BLOG ENTRY
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13536
1965. AtHomeInTX
2:31 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
Mother Nature kicked up her heels a bit yesterday. Sadly was more of this than rain. :(

Severe thunderstorm causes minor damage near Orange...


Strong winds blew through parts of Orange County earlier Sunday evening knocking out the power at the Temple Inland Paper Mill on Highway 87. This area was under a severe thunderstorm warning for about 40 minutes Sunday afternoon.
A man got trapped inside and elevator for several minutes before he was rescued by emergency workers.



Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 160
1964. islandgirl725
2:31 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
new blog
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 11
1963. catastropheadjuster
2:31 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
Quoting stillwaiting:
writings on the wall for those who cant see it,almost exact same pattern as last yr.....2011 is 2010 tc season pt 2


Stillwaiting- Good Morning,Been doing good? so u think it's looking more like 2010 this yr? I kinda do to, the waves come off kind of strong with some good convection and a swirl with them and then becomes a dud. Like u said it looks like part2 too 2010.
Which that is wonderful to have another safe yr.

sheri
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3676
1962. CybrTeddy
2:31 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
Tropical Storm Gert & 93L 8/15/11
Enjoy!!
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24023
1961. ILwthrfan
2:30 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
Just throwing this out there but if we do go through the entire season without a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico or the Northwest Carribean... Oh man is winter going to be fun!
Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1520
1960. Neapolitan
2:29 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
FWIW, 96L is 270 miles SSE of Halifax, Nova Scotia, and about 425 miles due east of Cape Cod.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13536
1959. BahaHurican
2:28 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
93L looks nice this morning.... right on schedule, too. But there we go.... the twin-lobed structure that's plagued everything coming to the CAR from this direction. I'm starting to think it's a speed feature... these waves seem to be flying along at well over 15 mph, which as kman said earlier is surely not conducive to formation. I actually think if 93L were moving through this area on approach to the Leewards at a slower pace, we'd see TC formation out of it. As it is, it looks like a day of heavy downpours from Barbados to Barbuda....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22138
1958. weathermanwannabe
2:27 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
The good news of the day so far is that Gert is a small storm and is staying to the right of Bermuda so they should not feel any major impacts as it passes them.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9134
1957. AllStar17
2:27 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5313
1954. mcluvincane
2:25 PM GMT on August 15, 2011


This one shows real promise...
Member Since: June 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1339
1951. Neapolitan
2:22 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
96L re-activated. Again. Far to the north, and moving away:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al962011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201108151415
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 96, 2011, DB, O, 2011081418, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL962011
AL, 96, 2011081418, , BEST, 0, 367N, 638W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2011081500, , BEST, 0, 382N, 636W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2011081506, , BEST, 0, 397N, 631W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2011081512, , BEST, 0, 410N, 619W, 25, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13536
1949. AllStar17
2:20 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
We'll have to see if that huge wave emerging off Africa can persist over water. It looks pretty good right now.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5313
1948. trHUrrIXC5MMX
2:19 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
Quoting PaulinJax:
Is 93L related to Emily ?


No, Emily came much earlier as a wave then 93L later
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
1947. weathermanwannabe
2:19 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
Good Morning. The peak of the CV season is still one month away and there is no reason, based on 7 storms so far, to think that it will be a below-average CV season. Once the MJO moves into the Atl. basin, we should see a higher frequency of viable CV waves coming off of Africa. Not everyone will develop of course but all we can do is watch and wait at this point; I am confident that we will see several "Hurricanes" this season.......... :)
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9134
1946. Vincent4989
2:19 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
Quoting USAFwxguy:
Nice bunch of clouds, but they usually won't get named:



Quoting USAFwxguy:
93L looks poised to be the Non-Threat of the Season so far. Perhaps it can get some spin once it gets past the Eastern Caribbean, but until then I would not expect anything to pick up with 93L.

The prevailing winds in the Eastern Caribbean generally will prohibit a storm from developing.

Downcasting?
Member Since: November 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728
1945. PaulinJax
2:18 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
Is 93L related to Emily ?
Member Since: August 3, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 52
1944. Vincent4989
2:16 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
Quoting uptxcoast:
A science blog with Eric Berger

Link

This is getting ridiculous. Of course Houston has continued its 100-degree-day streak and could break the record set in 1980 today.

But that’s not the worst of it. The entire summer has, overall, been brutal.

First came June, with an average temperature of 86.2 degrees that ranked as the warmest on record in Houston according to the National Weather Service. July came in at 87.1 degrees, third warmest on record for Houston.

But August has been different altogether. This month’s average temperature is 90.6 degrees. Granted the month is only half over, but that is truly ridiculous. The warmest August on record, which occurred just last year, was 87.7 degrees. So this August has been very nearly 3 degrees warmer than any August on record.

Let’s put this another way. The typical August in Houston has an average temperature of 85.0 degrees. The warmest previous August, last year, was less than 3 degrees warmer than that.

Then there’s this August, which so far is an additional 3 degrees above the warmest ever August. Someone whose better at math than me could probably tell me how many standard deviations outside of the norm 90.6 degrees would be after 120 years of records.

Like I said, the weather we’ve had so far this month has been ridiculous. But wait, there’s more.

Galveston has the lengthiest record of weather data in this region, and its all-time record high overnight low temperature, 85 degrees, occurred a total of nine times between 1874 and 2010 according to the National Weather Service.

It has occurred nine times this summer, including seven days in a row ending Saturday. I don’t think we can blame the urban heat island effect for that one.

Link

Houston, you have a problem.......
Member Since: November 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728
1943. uptxcoast
2:11 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
A science blog with Eric Berger

Link

This is getting ridiculous. Of course Houston has continued its 100-degree-day streak and could break the record set in 1980 today.

But that’s not the worst of it. The entire summer has, overall, been brutal.

First came June, with an average temperature of 86.2 degrees that ranked as the warmest on record in Houston according to the National Weather Service. July came in at 87.1 degrees, third warmest on record for Houston.

But August has been different altogether. This month’s average temperature is 90.6 degrees. Granted the month is only half over, but that is truly ridiculous. The warmest August on record, which occurred just last year, was 87.7 degrees. So this August has been very nearly 3 degrees warmer than any August on record.

Let’s put this another way. The typical August in Houston has an average temperature of 85.0 degrees. The warmest previous August, last year, was less than 3 degrees warmer than that.

Then there’s this August, which so far is an additional 3 degrees above the warmest ever August. Someone whose better at math than me could probably tell me how many standard deviations outside of the norm 90.6 degrees would be after 120 years of records.

Like I said, the weather we’ve had so far this month has been ridiculous. But wait, there’s more.

Galveston has the lengthiest record of weather data in this region, and its all-time record high overnight low temperature, 85 degrees, occurred a total of nine times between 1874 and 2010 according to the National Weather Service.

It has occurred nine times this summer, including seven days in a row ending Saturday. I don’t think we can blame the urban heat island effect for that one.

Link
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 235
1942. BahaHurican
2:10 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
morning again.

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22138
1941. HurricaneDean07
2:08 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
According to the EMCWF,
The wave train might start with the wave that emerges off of Africa.

I see Gert is beginning to get going, it will be interesting to see if she makes a run at hurricane status, anyone have the latest microwave imagery?
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
1939. weatherguy03
2:04 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
Watching Invest 93L For Potential Development
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29704
1938. WaterWitch11
2:03 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
Good morning to all. Looks like 93 is playing hide and go seek. Beautiful graphics guys.
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 3 Comments: 1612
1934. stillwaiting
1:58 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
writings on the wall for those who cant see it,almost exact same pattern as last yr.....2011 is 2010 tc season pt 2
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
1931. ncstorm
1:53 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15299
1930. midgulfmom
1:51 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
Quoting presslord:
For your tropical flavored listening pleasure while blogging:Link

Thanks Presslord...NICE,saved it in favorites. My teens will like this too...First day of school for them, yea! Another still at home til Thurs. Checking in here periodically for ex-93L. BBL reality calling....
Member Since: July 9, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1141
1929. AtHomeInTX
1:49 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
Quoting ncstorm:


if anything, we can say the ECWMF has been consistent in showing that piece of energy and thats saying a whole lot when it comes to the models lately..hopefully texas can get some relief in precip..


Thanks. And you're right that does say something that it didn't drop the whole thing in the next model run. Lol. Guess we'll see if they hold on to developing that African wave now.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 160
1928. wunderkidcayman
1:46 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Actually he said he couldn't wait to see what Dmax would bring this morning and he knew it would look better and be reactivated. He did not say anything about a Cat 5 coming to Cayman and furthermore the current predicted paths DO bring it over or very near the Cayman Islands. No reason for you to continuously talk down to people.

yep

Quoting Patrap:


look at that Patrap 93L's convection is pushing all that dry air out of its way wow just look at it just completey gone that dry air is
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12024
1927. waynehelpardNS
1:45 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
Quoting Patrap:
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Gert
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




What the hell is that orange line, lol, and why is it coming over my house?

Obviously, that model is out of whack.
Member Since: August 11, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 10
1926. GeoffreyWPB
1:45 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
Hurricanes rarely hit Hawaii
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11158
1925. AtHomeInTX
1:43 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
Quoting OrchidGrower:
re: 1917, AtHomeInTX --- it's this stuck pattern that makes me wonder if we're going to see any change from the weak tropical systems now appearing. If the pattern's stuck here, is it not stuck over Africa and the tropical Atlantic as well? Only thing I see noticeably different in the last 3 weeks is that suddenly we're not firing off major hurricanes in the EPAC. The African waves are still coming off looking amazing, then falling apart in the parched air over the ATL.


I don't know if we're going to see this high back off or breakdown. I can hope so at some point. Although with La Nina supposed to come back could keep us dry through the winter. UGH! As far as the EPAC picking up, I think the MJO has been moving through making the environment more conducive for storms. And I think it's now coming into our basin too. May help getting things going in the Atlantic too.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 160

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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