Tropical Depression Seven forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:25 PM GMT on August 14, 2011

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The latest in our unusual number of weak tropical cyclones this season, Tropical Depression Seven, has formed to the southeast of Bermuda. Unless you live in Bermuda, TD 7 is not going to be a concern. Radar out of Bermuda shows an area of rain on the northern side of TD 7 beginning to approach the island, and rain from the storm will likely affect the island tonight and on Monday. TD 7 is not well-organized, and has only limited heavy thunderstorms, as seen on visible satellite images. While wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, dry air surrounds TD 7, and is keeping the storm from intensifying. None of the computer models foresee that TD 7 will ever become more than a weak tropical storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of TD 7.

92L
TD 7 isn't the only system Bermuda needs to watch, Invest 92L is a day behind it, and will follow a path very similar to TD 7's. The disturbance will pass close to Bermuda on Tuesday, bringing the island a second round of tropical rains. However, Invest 92L is very disorganized, as seen on recent visible satellite loops. Dry air and close proximity to TD 7 will likely keep 92L from showing significant development over the next two days, with NHC giving the system just a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa we've been tracking over the past few days, Invest 93L, has fallen apart and is no longer a threat to develop. This system will need to be watched once it enters the Caribbean later this week, though. None of the reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone formation predict development of this system or any new disturbances over the coming week.

Jeff Masters

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this is going too be a vary close call for Bermuda.
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115081
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Sorry...can't see the eye in that loop...but the radar and microwave images do show the beginnings of an eyeish feature though...

agree, but notice how the convection all shifts NW?
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Quoting dfwstormwatch:
Link
notice an eye starting to form in the visible satellite imagery


Sorry...can't see the eye in that loop...but the radar and microwave images do show the beginnings of an eyeish feature though...
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 474 Comments: 3668
Quoting all4hurricanes:
will there be a 2am update on Gert?



NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115081
Reed, WU mail.

Raw T is up to 4.0 now.

Quoting all4hurricanes:
will there be a 2am update on Gert?


Yep.
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Quoting all4hurricanes:
will there be a 2am update on Gert?


Yes...when a watch/warning is present...the NHC updates every 3 hours instead of 6.
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 474 Comments: 3668
Quoting reedzone:
The 7th name storm (Gert) has formed and is threatening Bermuda tonight... Do you all understand that we are not far form the speed of 2005?? We should only be on our 4th storm on average for Early to Mid August. We were at Earl in 2004 around this time, Colin last year, and we are already ahead of 2008 where they were only up to Fay, which made landfall in Palm Coast as a TS. Big season ahead, be prepared!
I've cuaght you.I think tying last year's record is very pluasable.Or even surpassing it.I forecasted a total of 17 named storms this season.I think we'll get a storm in november as the past neutral years have had a november storms.And they have been hurricanes.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16971
will there be a 2am update on Gert?
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Quoting reedzone:
The 7th name storm (Gert) has formed and is threatening Bermuda tonight... Do you all understand that we are not far form the speed of 2005?? We should only be on our 4th storm on average for Early to Mid August. We were at Earl in 2004 around this time, Colin last year, and we are already ahead of 2008 where they were only up to Fay, which made landfall in Palm Coast as a TS. Big season ahead, be prepared!



hi reedszone what you think about the ITCZ dos it have too do with the mojo be come it really poping up t-storms tonight all so what you think about ex 93L do you think it still has a ch
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115081
Link
notice an eye starting to form in the visible satellite imagery
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Quoting MrstormX:


I tried to view that earlier, not working for me...could be cause I'm using safari

It runs on FF and Chrome.
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Last Radar frame shows a COC

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The models this year have developed various systems out of african waves as soon as they come off.And none have materialized.93L well ex-93L was an exsample.And so was plenty others.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16971
The 7th name storm (Gert) has formed and is threatening Bermuda tonight... Do you all understand that we are not far form the speed of 2005?? We should only be on our 4th storm on average for Early to Mid August. We were at Earl in 2004 around this time, Colin last year, and we are already ahead of 2008 where they were only up to Fay, which made landfall in Palm Coast as a TS. Big season ahead, be prepared!
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Here is a better radar view from Bermuda.
Link


thanks Aussie...
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Here is a better radar view from Bermuda.
Link


I tried to view that earlier, not working for me...could be cause I'm using safari
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


could you link it?


http://www.weather.bm/radarLarge.asp
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UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 AUG 2011 Time : 031500 UTC
Lat : 30:14:52 N Lon : 63:18:30 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.5 /1004.7mb/ 35.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.2 2.6 4.0
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115081
Quoting Tazmanian:
am telling you guys i sure i spay a eye on the rader


but i guss we cant relly tell in tell the next few updates if it is or not

Taz if you click that link i just posted, then you'll see it's not an eye. sorry to disappoint you
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Quoting AussieStorm:


Interesting..
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Quoting MrstormX:
My final image tonight:



could you link it?
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am telling you guys i sure i spay a eye on the rader


but i guss we cant relly tell in tell the next few updates if it is or not
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115081
looks like it will it stay East of Bermuda....and will still be a TS...

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x93L is in the best conditions out there in the Atlantic and under a anticyclone. If it doesn't develop now it's toast. The E Caribbean is a graveyard.
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Here is a better radar view from Bermuda.
Link
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Quoting dfwstormwatch:
no pressure change or wind change in bermuda yet...


Another sign that Gert is a small system...
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 474 Comments: 3668
My final image tonight:

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Quoting AussieStorm:

it's normally like that mate!



not sure i think the MJO has some in to do with it
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115081
no pressure change or wind change in bermuda yet...
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Quoting Tazmanian:



you can say that i was this seeing if any one new that the ITCZ is fireing off t-storms tonight that sure is a lot of t-storms for the ITCZ

it's normally like that mate!
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If you use the MIMIC imagery as a guide, then the COC is starting to come into the radar.
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1542. JLPR2
Seems ex-96L feels more confident when no one is watching.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8690
...but don't get me wrong...Gert certainly a stronger tropical storm right now IMO...and could become a hurricane....
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 474 Comments: 3668
Quoting MrstormX:
Wowza, not too shabby.




other rader update round be nic
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115081
Quoting MrstormX:
Wowza, not too shabby.



Really? My feelings on this storm change as fast as the stock market...LOL...the center looks less impressive than it did minutes ago on radar....
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 474 Comments: 3668
Quoting AussieStorm:

Taz, are you bored? The ITCZ is like that right around the world. So it's no surprise it's got thunderstorms firing off.



you can say that i was this seeing if any one new that the ITCZ is fireing off t-storms tonight that sure is a lot of t-storms for the ITCZ
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115081
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Quoting Tazmanian:




is that a eye on the rader?

CDO
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0z GFS is running. It shows an area of low pressure in the far eastern Atlantic by 54 hours, presumably from the system about to enter the Atlantic from Africa.

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1534. angiest

Quoting Tazmanian:




is that a eye on the rader?
Remember you are looking very high up in the storm.  Hard to judge if that is anything using just reflectivity data.  Velocity data would be helpful, but if this radar is capable of it, I think we are too far away, and I think it would be range folded anyway.
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Quoting Tazmanian:




is that a eye on the rader?


Nay...but decent structure
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Quoting Tazmanian:




I GUESS NOT

Taz, are you bored? The ITCZ is like that right around the world. So it's no surprise it's got thunderstorms firing off.
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Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5313
Quoting spathy:
spurious

OMG

Love it!
I had forgotten about that word from the blog past.


A hello to you, Spathy :)
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1492
1526. angiest

Quoting spathy:
spurious

OMG

Love it!
I had forgotten about that word from the blog past.
Heh, had forgotten it has been used here.
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Quoting MrstormX:
Wowza, not too shabby.





is that a eye on the rader?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115081

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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