Tropical Depression Seven forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:25 PM GMT on August 14, 2011

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The latest in our unusual number of weak tropical cyclones this season, Tropical Depression Seven, has formed to the southeast of Bermuda. Unless you live in Bermuda, TD 7 is not going to be a concern. Radar out of Bermuda shows an area of rain on the northern side of TD 7 beginning to approach the island, and rain from the storm will likely affect the island tonight and on Monday. TD 7 is not well-organized, and has only limited heavy thunderstorms, as seen on visible satellite images. While wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, dry air surrounds TD 7, and is keeping the storm from intensifying. None of the computer models foresee that TD 7 will ever become more than a weak tropical storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of TD 7.

92L
TD 7 isn't the only system Bermuda needs to watch, Invest 92L is a day behind it, and will follow a path very similar to TD 7's. The disturbance will pass close to Bermuda on Tuesday, bringing the island a second round of tropical rains. However, Invest 92L is very disorganized, as seen on recent visible satellite loops. Dry air and close proximity to TD 7 will likely keep 92L from showing significant development over the next two days, with NHC giving the system just a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa we've been tracking over the past few days, Invest 93L, has fallen apart and is no longer a threat to develop. This system will need to be watched once it enters the Caribbean later this week, though. None of the reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone formation predict development of this system or any new disturbances over the coming week.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting dfwstormwatch:

gert on the Dvorak satellite


She looks like a shrimp in that view....
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 526 Comments: 3706
Now they updated GFS..

Should be the new wave coming out of Africa

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Well since we all seem to be giving our prediction for how many name storms this season...I thought I would stick my neck in & go with 21 named storms, yep I think we will use up all the names on the list. No 2005 though, that year deserves the right to be left in infamy!
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Damn, gonna be hard to get used to EDT when you get back.

Another recurvature after moving over Puerto Rico and Hispañola. 324 hours below:

I'm laughing.I can't take that seriously.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Damn, gonna be hard to get used to EDT when you get back.

Another recurvature after moving over Puerto Rico and Hispañola. 324 hours below:



Yeah, really not looking forward to it.

384 hours
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gert on the Dvorak satellite
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Quoting washingtonian115:
I call Gert Shary part two.


And didn't Shary also just go east by Bermuda like Gert might?
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 526 Comments: 3706
Quoting reedzone:
I actually believe my prediction is very reasonable due to the amount of storms we currently have. Looks like Gert is trying to become our first Hurricane of the Season
I call Gert Shary part two.
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Quoting reedzone:
I actually believe my prediction is very reasonable due to the amount of storms we currently have. Looks like Gert is trying to become our first Hurricane of the Season




when you think will see a real storm too track
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115350
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Yeah, two more weeks left.
Damn, gonna be hard to get used to EDT when you get back.

Another recurvature after moving over Puerto Rico and Hispañola. 324 hours below:

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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Another GFS ghost storm.

It needs model support to be considered a threat.

00z


Crazy GFS.... Next Frame shows this... The real is that models have been crazy but the season has been up to now, quite unpredictable...

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Quoting reedzone:
I actually believe my prediction is very reasonable due to the amount of storms we currently have. Looks like Gert is trying to become our first Hurricane of the Season


Right on bro...definitely looking like it...steady but surely....
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
00z GFS

Enter stage right:


What is that? The GFS on crack? Or mabye the 2 week GFS? 0% possibility .
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Quoting dfwstormwatch:

the eastern Caribbean has moistened up a bit


Oh...and that same sat. image shows 92L has been wiped into oblivion...92L no more finally!
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
IMO, 9 more names after September 1st.

Could see 2-3 more in August.

We're looking at a 17-19 named year.


Yeah, around there it seems.. Mine is 18-20.
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I actually believe my prediction is very reasonable due to the amount of storms we currently have. Looks like Gert is trying to become our first Hurricane of the Season
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Quoting reedzone:
Looking at 18-20 named storms this year..
Man I missed it by 8-10.My math hs really gotten bad since college.
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IMO, 9 more names after September 1st.

Could see 2-3 more in August.

We're looking at a 17-19 named year.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24471
Quoting dfwstormwatch:

the eastern Caribbean has moistened up a bit


Gert also showing a nice head over the center with two well-curved bands SE of center...definitely more mature than the simple circular burst it had just hours ago...
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Quoting wn1995:


lol great math! ;)



lol thanks
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1605. robj144
Quoting caneswatch:
If what Reed says holds to be true, the naming list could be used up.


It's just a guess though... anything can happen.
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1604. wn1995
Quoting Tazmanian:



28 storms


lol great math! ;)
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1603. robj144
Quoting reedzone:
Looking at 18-20 named storms this year..


Damn... I was off by 30+. :)
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If what Reed says holds to be true, the naming list could be used up.
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the eastern Caribbean has moistened up a bit
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Still in Europe?

192 hours:



Yeah, two more weeks left.
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LOL....sorry...your guys's math is making me laugh...really sorry :)

By the way...why is it Dr. M's post here says the models show no development...but you guys are able to find model runs that show development all the time? Interesting...
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
00z GFS

Enter stage right:


I'm not trusting that for a mere second until I actually see the wave developing about a day or two when it get's off the African coast.Models have develope most waves off of Africa and none have materialized.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Not even 7am here yet...

Still in Europe?

192 hours:

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Reed, thats about 19-21 storms.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
00z GFS

Enter stage right:




Should be the wave currently coming off Africa?
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Another GFS ghost storm.

It needs model support to be considered a threat.

00z
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
00z GFS

Enter stage right:




These models seem to change a lot from run to run...I'll take them with a grain of salt for now...
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Looking at 18-20 named storms this year..
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Quoting Tazmanian:



28 storms


um not even close...
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00z GFS

Enter stage right:


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1589. robj144
Quoting reedzone:
7 names so far...

lets break about 3 or 4 more for the rest of the month
Potential 5 more in September
Then 3 in October (Including Subtropical)
1-2 in November/December

Add that up and how many do you have??


52?
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Quoting reedzone:
7 names so far...

lets break about 3 or 4 more for the rest of the month
Potential 5 more in September
Then 3 in October (Including Subtropical)
1-2 in November/December

Add that up and how many do you have??
10?.
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Quoting reedzone:
7 names so far...

lets break about 3 or 4 more for the rest of the month
Potential 5 more in September
Then 3 in October (Including Subtropical)
1-2 in November/December

Add that up and how many do you have??



28 storms
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115350
This season so far is a dream! Weak systems that spin out harmlessly to sea. God willing, it will continue!
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1585. wn1995
Quoting AussieStorm:
Here is a better radar view from Bermuda.
Link


Yeah not an eye but it definitely shows it is organizing. I'd say it is at least a 50-60 mph ts at this point.
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1584. robj144
Quoting Tazmanian:
this is going too be a vary close call for Bermuda.


I think Bermuda should be fine. It's like a thunderstorm to them as they have very tough building codes.
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Quoting robj144:


How old was that post? I remember reading that hours ago when I came on during the day. :)


I think that was last blog too
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Not even 7am here yet...

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7 names so far...

lets break about 3 or 4 more for the rest of the month
Potential 5 more in September
Then 3 in October (Including Subtropical)
1-2 in November/December

Add that up and how many do you have??
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1579. robj144
Quoting Jedkins01:


I'm pretty sure 1 billion volts of electricity might be a reason to cancel a sports event? Or maybe a tornado?

Are you really that foolish? Or are you just another loser trying to start controversy in this blog...

Its just stupid entertainment. Its not worth risking a life, mr. brilliant.


How old was that post? I remember reading that hours ago when I came on during the day. :)
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RAW T 4.0 is a hurricane right?
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Quoting AussieStorm:

agree, but notice how the convection all shifts NW?


Yeah...I did notice that...the convective burst east of center is wrapping around...but the intensity of clouds right at the center is not faded...which (from a sat. perspective) is what I would expect to see when an eye is popping open....

However...I wouldn't be surprised if Gert shows an eye on satellite when the sun rises over it hours later...
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Quoting NavarreMark:


I will repeat the statement. Football games should NEVER be cancelled or delayed due to weather.

Spent to many years enduring rocky mountain blizzards at mile high amid sold out seats. Nobody ever went home and the games went on.

The timid of heart should stick to the domes.


I'm pretty sure 1 billion volts of electricity might be a reason to cancel a sports event? Or maybe a tornado?

Are you really that foolish? Or are you just another loser trying to start controversy in this blog...

Its just stupid entertainment. Its not worth risking a life, mr. brilliant.
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this is going too be a vary close call for Bermuda.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.