Tropical Depression Seven forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:25 PM GMT on August 14, 2011

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The latest in our unusual number of weak tropical cyclones this season, Tropical Depression Seven, has formed to the southeast of Bermuda. Unless you live in Bermuda, TD 7 is not going to be a concern. Radar out of Bermuda shows an area of rain on the northern side of TD 7 beginning to approach the island, and rain from the storm will likely affect the island tonight and on Monday. TD 7 is not well-organized, and has only limited heavy thunderstorms, as seen on visible satellite images. While wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, dry air surrounds TD 7, and is keeping the storm from intensifying. None of the computer models foresee that TD 7 will ever become more than a weak tropical storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of TD 7.

92L
TD 7 isn't the only system Bermuda needs to watch, Invest 92L is a day behind it, and will follow a path very similar to TD 7's. The disturbance will pass close to Bermuda on Tuesday, bringing the island a second round of tropical rains. However, Invest 92L is very disorganized, as seen on recent visible satellite loops. Dry air and close proximity to TD 7 will likely keep 92L from showing significant development over the next two days, with NHC giving the system just a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa we've been tracking over the past few days, Invest 93L, has fallen apart and is no longer a threat to develop. This system will need to be watched once it enters the Caribbean later this week, though. None of the reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone formation predict development of this system or any new disturbances over the coming week.

Jeff Masters

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1675. Mucinex
000
ABNT20 KNHC 150533
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GERT...LOCATED ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO PROXIMITY TO
TROPICAL STORM GERT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Member Since: May 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 254
night my little ones let me put you all too bed now




heh heh heh this kinding lol night all
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115362
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Thanks I'll book it, I see the Nile River :) btw the Sahara Desert moving S 10 miles a year is a huge shift, and if what we already know about the SAL is true then the activity will be lessened since Dry Air, Dust, & Sand are known to create an inversion layer over the marine layer blocking out any sunlight from reaching the ocean to heat it up as well as responsible for creating a stable air mass, these factors can be attributed to supressing Tropical Cyclone Development. Of course more research is still on-going.


Sorry for my english, I should have said that the dessert is Expanding south, not moving...
It would be interesting gathering recorded and actual data to pronosticate what will effect it would have interacting with the ITCZ...

Also another interesting study would be (For those who think that there is global warming); What's the effect of higher temps. on the dessert storms vs. the ITCZ... SAL will be stronger and travel much farher, but also WV generation will be higher...
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1672. Mucinex
Anybody have a reliable link to proof that TS Alpha was not retired. I'm 100% sure it wasn't. But, I also can't seem to find reliable proof to back that up. Money is on the line.:)

Also, WU has all the greek-named storm maps from 2005 hitting Africa and Spain.
Member Since: May 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 254
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Your right, and that's very bad news for the US. You want them to develop as soon as they hit the water as 90% they recurve to open seas.
It's good news if they fall apart.
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Quoting sunlinepr:


Open this link and then click on the globe for a big zoom...

Link


The main page is

Link
Thanks I'll book it, I see the Nile River :) btw the Sahara Desert moving S 10 miles a year is a huge shift, and if what we already know about the SAL is true then the activity will be lessened since Dry Air, Dust, & Sand are known to create an inversion layer over the marine layer blocking out any sunlight from reaching the ocean to heat it up as well as responsible for creating a stable air mass, these factors can be attributed to supressing Tropical Cyclone Development. Of course more research is still on-going.
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1669. wn1995
I am really surprised it stayed at 45 mph! It has been organizing throughout the evening, and I think is at least 50 mph at this point.
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Tropical Storm Gert is doing very well tonight and heres the intensity forecast i think will play out
6 HR... 55 MPH
12 HR...60 MPH
18 HR... 65 MPH
24 HR ... 70 Mph
30 HR.... 75 Mph
36 HR.... 70 MPH
42 HR.... 60 MPH
48 HR.... 50 MPH extratropical
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Link
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The SAL could very well ease off here soon. Africa and further E is lined up with huge waves at the moment. It will be interesting to see how this all shakes out in the coming months.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Your right, and that's very bad news for the US. You want them to develop as soon as they hit the water as 90% they recurve to open seas.


Yes indeed. Waves that don't start developing until they get near the islands or further W pose a much greater risk for the CONUS.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Your right, and that's very bad news for the US. You want them to develop as soon as they hit the water as 90% they recurve to open seas.
Bingo.
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Quoting robert88:
Looks like the latest SAL chart shows it has dropped further S off Africa. If it stays like that there won't be much of a CV season. It will be similar to 2005 where nothing gets going until further W. You can go ahead and discount that wave coming off Africa forming anytime soon.


Your right, and that's very bad news for the US. You want them to develop as soon as they hit the water as 90% they recurve to open seas.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24484
Quoting reedzone:
7 names so far...

lets break about 3 or 4 more for the rest of the month
Potential 5 more in September
Then 3 in October (Including Subtropical)
1-2 in November/December

Add that up and how many do you have??


Like...21? 19 to 21, sorta like last year perhaps just a little tad bit more busy. I do see the US also being threatened sometime next month by multiple hurricanes.
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well 92 l's gone for good
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
I'll go with the one over Nigeria...btw I like this map it shows the deserts of Africa.


Open this link and then click on the globe for a big zoom...

Link


The main page is

Link
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Quoting robert88:
Models have not done so well with these weak small systems. Hopefully they do well when the monsters start forming out there.
There's a problem with that. A wave that stays weak moves westward across the Atlantic and poses a threat to the Caribbean. A wave that develops quickly after coming off of Africa, moves poleward, and poses a threat to no one.

Take Felix, Charley, Jeanne, to name 3.

Then take Bertha, Karl (2004), and Danielle (2004). These found favorable conditions off of Africa and recurved out to sea.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
you know the water temperature off the coast of Mauritania and Western Sahara has cooled indicative of the strength of each SAL episode. Could you imagine if the desert was instead a rain forest over there how active Cape-Verde season would be?
It was lush in the past, as recently as possibly 3000 BC.
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Quoting dfwstormwatch:
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE STATE
THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN IT SLIDES WEST AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. AS THIS
HAPPENS...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RETURN TO NORTH TEXAS AND BECOME
BETTER ESTABLISHED BY THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ONCE IT SLIDES WEST AND AS A
RESULT...THE STORM TRACK REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION AND THERE IS
NOT A STRONG INDICATION OF ANOTHER POSSIBLE MCS/RAIN EVENT FOR
NORTH TEXAS THIS WEEK. WITH THE RIDGE STRENGTHENING AND KEEPING A
FIRM GRIP OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR HOT AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THIS
WEEK...BUT WILL CLOSELY BE MONITORING FOR CHANGES TO OR IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. NEARLY EACH DAY THE MODELS ARE ATTEMPTING
TO DEVELOP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES /WHERE MOISTURE
CONTENT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN HIGH WITH PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES/...BUT THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE AND
WILL ASSESS THIS POTENTIAL ON A DAILY BASIS.


This forecast IS NOT GOOD...drought will generally continue....
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Quoting sunlinepr:
Will this wave be our first big Cane?? Which one?
I'll go with the one over Nigeria...btw I like this map it shows the deserts of Africa.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
you know the water temperature off the coast of Mauritania and Western Sahara has cooled indicative of the strength of each SAL episode. Could you imagine if the desert was instead a rain forest over there how active Cape-Verde season would be?


The Sahara is expanding S some 10 or more miles per year... How will this affect eventually the emission of waves from CV region?
That's a good Graduate study for any Met. student...
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Will this wave be our first big Cane?? Which one?
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1653. Mucinex
Quoting washingtonian115:
SMH.Lol.The GFS needs a nice cup of tea and cookies to calm it's self down.

Somewhere in North Carolina, Presslord just woke up in a cold sweat and doesn't know why..;)
Member Since: May 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 254
Quoting weatherganny:
Is whatever protecting texas from any hurricane hits at this time going to be present for the entire hurricane season? Just wondering if this will change and could tx be at risk for a hurricane later in the season. I dont know where to find the model for the "high" that is protecting us now.
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE STATE
THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN IT SLIDES WEST AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. AS THIS
HAPPENS...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RETURN TO NORTH TEXAS AND BECOME
BETTER ESTABLISHED BY THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ONCE IT SLIDES WEST AND AS A
RESULT...THE STORM TRACK REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION AND THERE IS
NOT A STRONG INDICATION OF ANOTHER POSSIBLE MCS/RAIN EVENT FOR
NORTH TEXAS THIS WEEK. WITH THE RIDGE STRENGTHENING AND KEEPING A
FIRM GRIP OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR HOT AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THIS
WEEK...BUT WILL CLOSELY BE MONITORING FOR CHANGES TO OR IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. NEARLY EACH DAY THE MODELS ARE ATTEMPTING
TO DEVELOP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES /WHERE MOISTURE
CONTENT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN HIGH WITH PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES/...BUT THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE AND
WILL ASSESS THIS POTENTIAL ON A DAILY BASIS.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
SMH.Lol.The GFS needs a nice cup of tea and cookies to calm it's self down.



heh heh heh
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115362
Quoting sunlinepr:
you know the water temperature off the coast of Mauritania and Western Sahara has cooled indicative of the strength of each SAL episode. Could you imagine if the desert was instead a rain forest over there how active Cape-Verde season would be?
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Anyone see the fat wave currently over Africa?.I wonder if it has a low?


I just looked...yeah its a large and impressive wave...but its broad spin is going to emerge at a latitude too far north...putting it initally over marginal SSTs...plus someone posted an image (post 1640) of the dry SAL which looks prime over the latitude that this large spin is heading across.

This wave seems shaky right now too...
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Looks like the latest SAL chart shows it has dropped further S off Africa. If it stays like that there won't be much of a CV season. It will be similar to 2005 where nothing gets going until further W. You can go ahead and discount that wave coming off Africa forming anytime soon.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
00z GFS holy we cow look off the E COAST

SMH.Lol.The GFS needs a nice cup of tea and cookies to calm it's self down.
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Is whatever protecting texas from any hurricane hits at this time going to be present for the entire hurricane season? Just wondering if this will change and could tx be at risk for a hurricane later in the season. I dont know where to find the model for the "high" that is protecting us now.
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just 30 to 40 more minutes until the new update on t.s gert comes out... cant wait!
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Models have not done so well with these weak small systems. Hopefully they do well when the monsters start forming out there.
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Anyone see the fat wave currently over Africa?.I wonder if it has a low?
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Quoting dfwstormwatch:

still from the south


Well...if the wind direction from the south is slowing down...that means the circulation is getting closer to Bermuda...I expect the winds from the south will continue to slow...then switch to a northerly direction as the center passes on by to the east...

If the center passes far enough to the east...the winds may actually never become northerly..but instead variable....because Gert is really small...
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And SAL looks like its going to keep doing the job well...
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1639. JRRP
cube hurricane???
lol
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Quoting ElConando:
Gert is the best looking storm I've seen this season. Could become a Strong TS before it transitions.


Some of us tonight (including myself) are saying possibly even a hurricane before transition to extratropical....
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00z GFS holy we cow look off the E COAST

Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115362
By the way I really do think we need to start taking the GFS more seriously (in terms of development) since we are getting close to the peak of the Hurricane season, now in terms of track these models can flip-flop back in forth like a fish pulled out of water, but it's when they get close to the islands or 5 days out when we really need to start paying attention to them.
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Was the wind direction before 1 am out of the south? What is the wind direction right now at 1 am?

still from the south
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Recurvature after going in the Caribbean that low? The GFS is off its rocker tonight.
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Quoting dfwstormwatch:
1 am observation @ bermuda indicated both pressure and winds speeds are down


Was the wind direction before 1 am out of the south? What is the wind direction right now at 1 am?
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Gert is the best looking storm I've seen this season. Could become a Strong TS before it transitions.
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The SAL and dry air has helped to keep the lid on so far this season. The wind shear hasn't been much of an issue at all. I am willing to bet just about every wave that has rolled off Africa could be a hurricane if it wasn't for such a stable atmosphere in place. There is probably going to be one storm after another when the MJO returns in the coming weeks. The Atlantic will be more moistened up by then and will be ready to rock n roll.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
"really not looking forward to it".That obviously can't be taken seriously.Remember the GfS had Bill hitting NOLA?.


Was referring to Miami's post...
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Damn, gonna be hard to get used to EDT when you get back.

Another recurvature after moving over Puerto Rico and HispaƱola. 324 hours below:

It's hard for me to say recurvature after a storm goes into the Caribbean and wrecks havoc, in my dictionary I see recurvature as going out to sea & not affecting any landmass ala fish storm.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Yeah, really not looking forward to it.

384 hours
"really not looking forward to it".That obviously can't be taken seriously.Remember the GfS had Bill hitting NOLA?.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


And didn't Shary also just go east by Bermuda like Gert might?
Yes if memory serves me correctly.
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1 am observation @ bermuda indicated both pressure and winds speeds are down
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Quoting dfwstormwatch:

gert on the Dvorak satellite


She looks like a shrimp in that view....
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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