Tropical Depression Seven forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:25 PM GMT on August 14, 2011

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The latest in our unusual number of weak tropical cyclones this season, Tropical Depression Seven, has formed to the southeast of Bermuda. Unless you live in Bermuda, TD 7 is not going to be a concern. Radar out of Bermuda shows an area of rain on the northern side of TD 7 beginning to approach the island, and rain from the storm will likely affect the island tonight and on Monday. TD 7 is not well-organized, and has only limited heavy thunderstorms, as seen on visible satellite images. While wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, dry air surrounds TD 7, and is keeping the storm from intensifying. None of the computer models foresee that TD 7 will ever become more than a weak tropical storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of TD 7.

92L
TD 7 isn't the only system Bermuda needs to watch, Invest 92L is a day behind it, and will follow a path very similar to TD 7's. The disturbance will pass close to Bermuda on Tuesday, bringing the island a second round of tropical rains. However, Invest 92L is very disorganized, as seen on recent visible satellite loops. Dry air and close proximity to TD 7 will likely keep 92L from showing significant development over the next two days, with NHC giving the system just a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa we've been tracking over the past few days, Invest 93L, has fallen apart and is no longer a threat to develop. This system will need to be watched once it enters the Caribbean later this week, though. None of the reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone formation predict development of this system or any new disturbances over the coming week.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting totalamature:
Lurk... Lurk.. Ok call me a troll but the maps are sure neat & kind of Pretty. Wish i knew how read them better! To whoever was fussing about everybody being wrong, wrong, wrong. Geeez get real, none of us would be on here if it was easy. Thats why it's "Predicting" or "forecasting" Who would be watching if we already knew what would happen!


Start here LINK
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92L seem too be comeing back a little
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Lurk... Lurk.. Ok call me a troll but the maps are sure neat & kind of Pretty. Wish i knew how read them better! To whoever was fussing about everybody being wrong, wrong, wrong. Geeez get real, none of us would be on here if it was easy. Thats why it's "Predicting" or "forecasting" Who would be watching if we already knew what would happen!
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yeah that system east of the lesser antilies has some dry air to content with as it moves west if it survivies that it will have a chance, it certainnly deems watching, if it chugs along and is able to form a closed circulation later on down the road and continues west northwest towards the ucitan, my preidiction will that storm will become the first atl hurricane in the gom.
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Quoting hydrus:
Has anyone ever seen the Gulf of Mexico this warm?


Yes..sst's are always plenty warm every year come the meat of the season.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13792
The disturbance midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa we've been tracking over the past few days, Invest 93L, has fallen apart and is no longer a threat to develop.

I am surprised by this statement from Dr. Masters. Ex 93L has continually increased both its vorticity and convection this morning and I believe it will be a Tropical Depression prior to reaching Barbados sometime mid week. Incidentally, Hurricane Charley formed just southeast of Barbados in 2004. The current steering pattern is eerily similar to that of Charley with the weakness shifting to the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
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Who hit the tropical storm snooze button?
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Has anyone ever seen the Gulf of Mexico this warm?
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Quoting Orcasystems:


We spend all morning giving him that warm fuzzy feeling... and you go and ruin it by posting based on fact and logic.. you should know by now... that's seldom done on here.
Sorry,my bad Orca! I started flying at 15 and gave my dad more grey hairs then I know.....now back to my cold beer.
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Quoting viman:
convestion with ex-93L is flying westward, looks to be about 25-30mph. Doesn't seem terribly organized though...imho
Looks a little better than yesterday.
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The ECMWF picks up the wave behind 93L and develops it..Link
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114. viman
convection with ex-93L is flying westward, looks to be about 25-30mph. Doesn't seem terribly organized though...imho
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Compare the air in the EPAC to that in the ATL:



The Atlantic side might as well be a desert in comparison to its neighbor. I guess that is why the EPAC has had all hurricanes this year, while the ATL has only managed skimpy tropical storms.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
TD7 should get her old name back -- Auntie Em never really completely dissipated as she circled around the North side of the Bermuda High and started back down the East side with some moisture to drink. But all that dry air is slowing all the storms' development and will eventually kill Emily again, this time with a stake through the core.
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Complete Update

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI





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Quoting KahunaPailaka:
I wouldn't worry too much! The stall being referred to isn't an engine stall but an aerodynamic one. Lift is destroyed over the wing by increasing the angle of attack, think of the nose being raised too high. This causes a loss of lift and the nose drops. Recovery is to reduce the angle of attack. A pretty simple maneuver practiced by all pilots. Hopes this helps ease you concern!


We spend all morning giving him that warm fuzzy feeling... and you go and ruin it by posting based on fact and logic.. you should know by now... that's seldom done on here.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Check whats north of Bermuda today too..



is that TD 7 or 92L?


oh the recone is up
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Quoting KBH:

makes no sense really, recycling numbers means you can't link historical details of invest with particular storms, suggestion for NHC would be say 2011/05...TD #1...TS Arlene - 5th invest resulted in depression #1 formed into Arlene



All of the data is there to do historical linkage, it is just a pain in the #%* to use. They did introduce a new method last year that makes it a little easier, but still not easy.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11177
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Check whats north of Bermuda today too..


Saw that to, must be cold cored or the nhc would have more interest.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
Check whats north of Bermuda today too..
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recon is up
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Quoting MrstormX:
Dry Air has been a killer this year...Will there ever be a hurricane?


Yes.
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12z gfs starting to roll up to 18hrs so far.Link
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102. txjac
Quoting KahunaPailaka:
I wouldn't worry too much! The stall being referred to isn't an engine stall but an aerodynamic one. Lift is destroyed over the wing by increasing the angle of attack, think of the nose being raised too high. This causes a loss of lift and the nose drops. Recovery is to reduce the angle of attack. A pretty simple maneuver practiced by all pilots. Hopes this helps ease you concern!


I know I am not press ...but have kids so I know what he feels ...Really nice of you to sign up and give him good info on what his son is up to. From your avitar it would appear that you have done this a time of two! Thanks for explaining!
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Quoting MrstormX:
Dry Air has been a killer this year...Will there ever be a hurricane?



will get one
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ex 93L looks a lot better today still a lot of work to so be for comeing any thing but with vary low wind shear its heading in some in too relley watch
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Dry Air has been a killer this year...Will there ever be a hurricane?
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
Quoting 7544:


thanks taz

thanks taz


welcome
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Quoting presslord:



actually...none of this helps at all...but thanks so much for the effort
I wouldn't worry too much! The stall being referred to isn't an engine stall but an aerodynamic one. Lift is destroyed over the wing by increasing the angle of attack, think of the nose being raised too high. This causes a loss of lift and the nose drops. Recovery is to reduce the angle of attack. A pretty simple maneuver practiced by all pilots. Hopes this helps ease you concern!
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96. 7544
Quoting Tazmanian:



94L is TD 7 92L is one with 30% ch


thanks taz
Quoting Tazmanian:



94L is TD 7 92L is one with 30% ch


thanks taz
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Press,

Just in case you really didn't know, stalling an airplane has nothing to do with turning the engine off and gliding.
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94. KBH
Quoting KBH:

makes no sense really, recycling numbers means you can't link historical details of invest with particular storms, suggestion for NHC would be say 2011/05...TD #1...TS Arlene - 5th invest resulted in depression #1 formed into Arlene


Charlotte, the link gives good infor, but there are lost opportunities for research when invest as renumbered
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Quoting 7544:
can someone tell me the 30% circle on the nhc moving wnw is that 92l or 94l down to one circle now tia



94L is TD 7 92L is one with 30% ch
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Quoting 7544:
can someone tell me the 30% circle on the nhc moving wnw is that 92l or 94l down to one circle now tia

92L. 94L is TD#7.
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Good morning.

TD 7 looks like it will eventually get named Gert, depending on recon data gathered today. As noted for the past few days, significant strengthening of this system is unlikely due to dry air and limited upper-level support. Bermuda may get a few squalls out of this, but it isn't a dangerous concern for those folks. However, it is always prudent to keep tabs on systems headed your way, just in case the unexpected happens.

Former 93L looks more alive than yesterday, with a broad, elongated area of cyclonic turning noted near 48W. Thunderstorm activity is minimal, but better than the nothing it had yesterday. This is still a clear feature headed for the Caribbean, and although the models have dropped it today, it may still have to be monitored due to improving conditions in the Caribbean and the very warm waters that it will be moving over.
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90. 7544
can someone tell me the 30% circle on the nhc moving wnw is that 92l or 94l down to one circle now tia
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And poor little invest 98 in the EPAC gets no respect. Nice blob, a bit of a turn to it, hovering around 12 latitude, heading west into decently favorable water. Models putting it around 15n 145w down the road. Next stop Hawaii? It's a state too.
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88. KBH
Quoting charlottefl:


The start at 90L and continue upto 99L for the Atlantic. And then the numbers recycle.


The second post on Link <--- there has some pretty good info.

makes no sense really, recycling numbers means you can't link historical details of invest with particular storms, suggestion for NHC would be say 2011/05...TD #1...TS Arlene - 5th invest resulted in depression #1 formed into Arlene

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Seems to me there was an issue with this either last year or the year before. Vertical instability over the Atlantic is actually pretty low right now. Once that returns to normal, the season should look more normal.



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if 93l dont slow dont think it will be nothing than a rain maker for the WINDWARD
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Link

Barely any turning to be seen with the wave of Ex-93L at the moment.
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Ok...kinda out of touch with who's who now....which entity is the one moving swiftly toward the Antilles, TIA and BBL :)

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Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7862
4 inches of rain in Central Park today with 2-4 additional inches forecast. A record for the day. All time 24 hour rainfall record is 8.28", ya never know. I'm feeling quite tropical!
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Quoting GainesvilleGator:


We have two more weeks left in August plus September & October. That Texas heatwave won't last forever & it is causing dry air to sink downward over part of the Atlantic basin. Late season storms often form in the GOM & Western Carribean so Troughs will pull these TOWARDS the US. Every hurricane season is different & you never know what you are going to get. The Atlantic basin is extremely warm so there is a lot to fuel storms with.


I don't think cloud is being serious, because if he is he's pretty seriously wrong and or purposely ignoring the facts .
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Quoting weatherh98:


if it looks like the taj mahal still check the vorticity thats the only way to tell if its the taj mahal.... it aint the taj mahal


Its a lot weaker than earlier but appears more consolidated, I don't always think those maps are accurate either, JMO.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7862
Quoting KBH:

Where can I find info on how the invests are named? for tracking purposes it would seem logical at the beginning of the season to start at 1 and continue upwards; then it would be possible to see which invest developed into nothing, a storm or hurricane,.. just my 2 cents worth


The start at 90L and continue upto 99L for the Atlantic. And then the numbers recycle.


The second post on Link <--- there has some pretty good info.
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Looks like the one heading towards the lesser antilles might have a chance, everything is breathing, builds up, breaks down, builds up breaks down, do we still call it the same storm when it builds back up? wow what a number of weak systems this year, never seen one like this, did the earth move alittle? no hurricanes yeah!!!!
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Look at 07L's NW side.
Is TD7 giving us the finger? LOL
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Quoting stormpetrol:
ex93L is expanding and looking better all time imo, if no yellow circle at 1 pm cst, then at 7 pm cst if it still looks this good!
.yeah but is moving so fast...
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Quoting presslord:


Thanks for all the moral support....off to prepare a Thermos full of Bloody Mary....


Good Luck. Dad to Dad, my nervousness and prayers will be with you, friend.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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