Tropical Depression Seven forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:25 PM GMT on August 14, 2011

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The latest in our unusual number of weak tropical cyclones this season, Tropical Depression Seven, has formed to the southeast of Bermuda. Unless you live in Bermuda, TD 7 is not going to be a concern. Radar out of Bermuda shows an area of rain on the northern side of TD 7 beginning to approach the island, and rain from the storm will likely affect the island tonight and on Monday. TD 7 is not well-organized, and has only limited heavy thunderstorms, as seen on visible satellite images. While wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, dry air surrounds TD 7, and is keeping the storm from intensifying. None of the computer models foresee that TD 7 will ever become more than a weak tropical storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of TD 7.

92L
TD 7 isn't the only system Bermuda needs to watch, Invest 92L is a day behind it, and will follow a path very similar to TD 7's. The disturbance will pass close to Bermuda on Tuesday, bringing the island a second round of tropical rains. However, Invest 92L is very disorganized, as seen on recent visible satellite loops. Dry air and close proximity to TD 7 will likely keep 92L from showing significant development over the next two days, with NHC giving the system just a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa we've been tracking over the past few days, Invest 93L, has fallen apart and is no longer a threat to develop. This system will need to be watched once it enters the Caribbean later this week, though. None of the reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone formation predict development of this system or any new disturbances over the coming week.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting AussieStorm:






The Gulf is sizzling....
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Quoting stormpetrol:


As the caribbean has been quiet as of late. Could we be looking at something out of there soon?
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Quoting ScottLincoln:


I havent come across any really good climatologies of Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic SSTs (so we can see percentiles and min/max for this time of year), but most plots I have seen have the anomaly for most of the Gulf at 0.5-1.5C above average. If someone knows of a dataset where min/max has been estimated, that might be a good link to have.





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It almost seems as if something has to be imbedded in the Inter Tropical Conversion Zone to survive the crossing. Waves like what we were looking at earlier in the week off of Africa seem to be going north if they are so weak.
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Long range models flip-flop like a politician.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


You can go here and scroll through SSTs and anomalies for today's date from 1979 until now. The Gulf was warmer in 1998 at this time...

1998



2011



if im right tho tropical systems form to bring equitorial heat to the poles, threfore something should eventually form in the gulf in some way just beacuase its so hot
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Well. it's part of a front so I doubt it would become 96L. would need to detach itself first.


I don't see it as being part of any frontal boundary at the present time. Plus, invest status can be put on anything, whether it's cold core or warm core. There are no guidelines for invest status, which is why it's highly surprising that this area is not Invest 96L.

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Low sitting off the outerbanks

Link
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 13457
ex93L has alot of HEAT and ENERGY with it! Once it gets past 50W and heads into the Caribbean....LOOK OUT!! IMO
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The question I Have, on future runs. What are they saying in the realm of anything feeding off of the warm waters near Florida?
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Quoting weatherh98:


Its cool i would get annoyed to i just had to know so i asked another guy answered for me thanks for the link tho



welcome
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114054
Quoting ScottLincoln:


I havent come across any really good climatologies of Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic SSTs (so we can see percentiles and min/max for this time of year), but most plots I have seen have the anomaly for most of the Gulf at 0.5-1.5C above average. If someone knows of a dataset where min/max has been estimated, that might be a good link to have.


You can go here and scroll through SSTs and anomalies for today's date from 1979 until now. The Gulf was warmer in 1998 at this time...

1998



2011



Edit: sorry, forgot the link...

Link
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Well. it's part of a front so I doubt it would become 96L. would need to detach itself first.



not really i think are last name storm we this had was still a part a front be for it detach itself
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114054
Quoting Tazmanian:




i starting too a little sick of evere day of the same annyoing ?s if you google it or yahoo it you find your ander in fac i give you a siite


wikipedia is a good place too start

here the ander too ? # 1

Link



sorry not trying too be rude or any thing but this geting a little sick of here about the same ? evere day too where you can this go look them up on your own and you find out the ander too them


Its cool i would get annoyed to i just had to know so i asked another guy answered for me thanks for the link tho
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Quoting MississippiWx:


It would be 96L if something else didn't become 96L first (such as that area north of Bermuda today).

Well. it's part of a front so I doubt it would become 96L. would need to detach itself first.
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Quoting yesterway:


Agreed. For those people who are anxious for hurricane development; you can relax. This is not going to be the season for hurricanes nor land falling US systems. It is going to remain quiet. Fish anyone?


You would have said the exact same thing last year on this same day. With all these pathetic storms such as Colin, Bonnie, TD2, TD5, and no real storms (except the outlier Alex) until August 23. But that year did turn out to be the season for hurricanes with Danielle, Igor, Earl, Karl, and Julia as beautiful majors.
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AOI means Area of Interest. IMO In My Opinion
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Cold Tops:
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Quoting hydrus:
Has anyone ever seen the Gulf of Mexico this warm?


I havent come across any really good climatologies of Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic SSTs (so we can see percentiles and min/max for this time of year), but most plots I have seen have the anomaly for most of the Gulf at 0.5-1.5C above average. If someone knows of a dataset where min/max has been estimated, that might be a good link to have.
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Quoting weatherh98:
sorry for this but im still new can someone explain what mjo aoi and imo mean




i starting too a little sick of evere day of the same annyoing ?s if you google it or yahoo it you find your ander in fac i give you a siite


wikipedia is a good place too start

here the ander too ? # 1

Link



sorry not trying too be rude or any thing but this geting a little sick of here about the same ? evere day too where you can this go look them up on your own and you find out the ander too them
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114054
Quoting AussieStorm:

Do you think this will be 93L or 96L.


It would be 96L if something else didn't become 96L first (such as that area north of Bermuda today).
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Quoting yesterway:


Agreed. For those people who are anxious for hurricane development; you can relax. This is not going to be the season for hurricanes nor land falling US systems. It is going to remain quiet. Fish anyone?

Don't quote me, I said, in the next 10 day's not the rest of the season. BTW, I had 2 salmon steaks for dinner tonight, was very nice.
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Quoting weatherh98:
sorry for this but im still new can someone explain what mjo aoi and imo mean



Madden-Julian oscillation
Area of Interest
In My Opinion
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Quoting hurricane23:


With a trof near the east coast it would be quite conducive for that tc on the 0z european run to stay well east of the U.S. east coast.


LOL.. Never thought you would be the one to point that out. That's great if it does. Don't need that one coming to the U.S.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Days 8-10 have a tropical cyclone on the Euro.

Do you think this will be 93L or 96L.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

7days.



8days.



9days.



10Days.



Days 8-10 have a tropical cyclone on the Euro.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Start here LINK

Thank you so much What a great link! only law I could remeber was murphys. It seems to work well with weather too.
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sorry for this but im still new can someone explain what mjo aoi and imo mean
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Incorrect.

Day 7



Day 8



Day 9



Day 10


I wouldn't say that was 93L, more like 96L.
7days.



8days.



9days.



10Days.

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Quoting MississippiWx:


Incorrect.

Day 7



Day 8



Day 9



Day 10



With a trof near the east coast it would be quite conducive for that tc on the 0z european run to stay well east of the U.S. east coast.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13597
I would say Dr. Masters has been right more that he has been wrong in the one week model based predictions. One thing to note is he does not state possible development, but development of a tropical cyclone (Tropical Depression or higher).
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12z at 132hrs out heh Link
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Quoting AussieStorm:

That the AOI that should of been given an invest number. looks better than 92L and 93L


92L and 93L looks a lot better today
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114054
Yes, Dr. Masters is a little lax when he looks aheAD...He's done this a number of times...I don't really pay much attention anymore to his long range ideas...the trough backing into the Edast Gulf is going to be a problem if it actually happens and the European does show a tropical system in the next 7 days.


Quoting caneswatch:


I agree. I was surprised as well. He also said no models were forming anything. I guess he didn't see the Euro model forming what would be Harvey or Irene. Like you, I also think this could be a TD by mid-week.
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Quoting MrstormX:
Compare the air in the EPAC to that in the ATL:



The Atlantic side might as well be a desert in comparison to its neighbor. I guess that is why the EPAC has had all hurricanes this year, while the ATL has only managed skimpy tropical storms.


NEWSFLASH, because of the gulf stream the atl is bassically stagnant and dry, it cuts the central atl off from the rest of the ocean, its much like the reason that antarctica is a desert and and frozen
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Check whats north of Bermuda today too..

That the AOI that should of been given an invest number. looks better than 92L and 93L, but then again, it is connected to a front.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

the ECMWF doesn't show anything for 10 days, 93L will be long gone by then.


Incorrect.

Day 7



Day 8



Day 9



Day 10

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The upward pulse of the MJO should be greeting 93L west of the islands. This, coupled with the THCP of the Carib. should make things very interesting later this week. Maybe folks on this board will get their hurricane yet. Also, with the current pattern, a stronger system miving through the Carib. would most likely move northward into the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
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Quoting HurrikanEB:


Without the NHC declaring otherwise, how can one tell if its cold core or semi-tropical? (it's been developing storms over the center during the past hour)Link


One aid is the Cyclone Phase analysis. Most are derived from model data, but there is one from AMSU satellites, but that is only run on existing invests or designated cyclones.
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Quoting MrstormX:


Saw that to, must be cold cored or the nhc would have more interest.

It is on a frontal boundary.
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Quoting hydrus:
Has anyone ever seen the Gulf of Mexico this warm?


never
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Quoting mcluvincane:
This system will need to be watched once it enters the Caribbean later this week, though. None of the reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone formation predict development of this system or any new disturbances over the coming week per Dr. Masters

Guess he didn't look at the ecmwf lol


the ECMWF doesn't show anything for 10 days, 93L will be long gone by then.
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This system will need to be watched once it enters the Caribbean later this week, though. None of the reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone formation predict development of this system or any new disturbances over the coming week per Dr. Masters

Guess he didn't look at the ecmwf lol

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Quoting coffeecrusader:
The disturbance midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa we've been tracking over the past few days, Invest 93L, has fallen apart and is no longer a threat to develop.

I am surprised by this statement from Dr. Masters. Ex 93L has continually increased both its vorticity and convection this morning and I believe it will be a Tropical Depression prior to reaching Barbados sometime mid week. Incidentally, Hurricane Charley formed just southeast of Barbados in 2004. The current steering pattern is eerily similar to that of Charley with the weakness shifting to the eastern Gulf of Mexico.


I agree. I was surprised as well. He also said no models were forming anything. I guess he didn't see the Euro model forming what would be Harvey or Irene. Like you, I also think this could be a TD by mid-week.
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Quoting MrstormX:


Saw that to, must be cold cored or the nhc would have more interest.


Without the NHC declaring otherwise, how can one tell if its cold core or semi-tropical? (it's been developing storms over the center during the past hour)Link
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126. LBAR
You know the air is dry when you can see the dust on satelite pictures. This is why I love the tropics. A desert half a world away affects our weather. Fascinating.
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Quoting totalamature:
Lurk... Lurk.. Ok call me a troll but the maps are sure neat & kind of Pretty. Wish i knew how read them better! To whoever was fussing about everybody being wrong, wrong, wrong. Geeez get real, none of us would be on here if it was easy. Thats why it's "Predicting" or "forecasting" Who would be watching if we already knew what would happen!


Start here LINK
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.