Tropical Depression Seven forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:25 PM GMT on August 14, 2011

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The latest in our unusual number of weak tropical cyclones this season, Tropical Depression Seven, has formed to the southeast of Bermuda. Unless you live in Bermuda, TD 7 is not going to be a concern. Radar out of Bermuda shows an area of rain on the northern side of TD 7 beginning to approach the island, and rain from the storm will likely affect the island tonight and on Monday. TD 7 is not well-organized, and has only limited heavy thunderstorms, as seen on visible satellite images. While wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, dry air surrounds TD 7, and is keeping the storm from intensifying. None of the computer models foresee that TD 7 will ever become more than a weak tropical storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of TD 7.

92L
TD 7 isn't the only system Bermuda needs to watch, Invest 92L is a day behind it, and will follow a path very similar to TD 7's. The disturbance will pass close to Bermuda on Tuesday, bringing the island a second round of tropical rains. However, Invest 92L is very disorganized, as seen on recent visible satellite loops. Dry air and close proximity to TD 7 will likely keep 92L from showing significant development over the next two days, with NHC giving the system just a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa we've been tracking over the past few days, Invest 93L, has fallen apart and is no longer a threat to develop. This system will need to be watched once it enters the Caribbean later this week, though. None of the reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone formation predict development of this system or any new disturbances over the coming week.

Jeff Masters

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Pacific may hold key to Atlantic hurricanes
Not sure if this was posted before.
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Anybody got thoughts on the TWO?
I'm thinking TD7 becomes Gert. Ex-93L gets reinvested. 50/50 on the swirl north of Bermuda.


Also,nice blow up of convection in NE Gulf. Hope it stretches around the curve into Texas.

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CybrTeddy's tirade should be saved and reproduced anytime we have similar statements about 'all fish', 'no hurricanes' etc.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:




Sorry everyone, had to rant, very grumpy this PM, lol.


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Quoting AussieStorm:
I see it's raining at Watkins Glen.
NASCAR fan here.... sigh. I'm waiting for the race to start as I sit here on my laptop. Radar doesn't look so promising today in New York :\
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Quoting Patrap:
The Chart,, brought to you by, FRESCA.

y'know, I can even see those Fresca colors in the version of The Chart
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Quoting AussieStorm:
2011 Tropical Cyclone Activity
Accumulated Cyclone Energy
Updated Aug 14, 2011 12:59

BASIN CURRENT YTD
Northern Hemisphere
196.9955
Western Pacific
130.363
North Atlantic
11.0725
Eastern Pacific
54.4575
North Indian
1.1025
Southern Hemisphere
140.398


Well...the Atlantic has beat the Northern Indian Ocean :)

Also interesting to note that the E-pac has had fewer storms than the Atlantic, but because they all have been strong hurricanes, the ACE index shows that its has been more active there.

But like others are emphasizing and as those charts show, the most active portion of the season still lies ahead...September
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Quoting AussieStorm:
I see it's raining at Watkins Glen.


sucks!!
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Quoting CybrTeddy:



.. your kidding right? You do realize, that every hurricane season since the beginning of the satellite era has seen a hurricane? And why don't you give facts to back that up, you've been saying for a few days that there won't be any hurricanes this year and why is that? Look at the SST's in the Atlantic, they're sky rocking above normal.

You know why there is dry air? Downward MJO causing suppressing convection and an average amount of SAL. You know why half our systems are weak this year? They're trough splits.. tell me when was the last time you saw a trough split form off the eastern seaboard that became a Category 3-4 hurricane? 1984 is your answer. Then finally look at last year, one quick glance at wiki would be all it would take - here, I'll link it for you. Link. Ignore Alex, Alex was a one-off, not even 2005 saw a Category 2 in the Gulf in June. Please, look at TD2, Bonnie, Colin then TD5. Then also remember we had several other invests that attempted to become tropical depressions that year.. then look at when we had our first true major hurricane, and our first hurricane in over two months.

The 2nd to last week of August, then what happened with the upward MJO came spinning around? Season went out of hand. Okay sure - no US landfalls. Sorry to break it to you, the USA is not the only country on the map. You want to hear something? Karl caused $5.6 billion dollars in damages.. one Category. It was IIRC the 3rd most destructive hurricane to hit Mexico. It was not retired because Mexico didn't request it. Please, look at the facts and stop making assumptions 'oh, its only mid-August and no hurricanes season is a bust inactive', and I'm tired of stressing this point if no one is going to listen and I had to rant and annoy you all for it last year too if you remember - we are ahead of schedule and conditions are primed for a change. The ECMWF shows a hurricane hitting the islands.. and that reverts right back to what I just said, do people on the islands not count? I know people who live in Barbados, I would be very upset if a bad hurricane hit them anytime soon.

Then look at this - this season the conditions are the same as last year and we're cranking out more storms that are facing the same conditions. What does that tell you? Once conditions lessen up, like they did last year, like they do EVERY year.. things will get active. You'll get your hurricane.

Sorry everyone, had to rant, very grumpy this PM, lol.
Agree. Let's not forget 1992 season when only 5 storms formed in Atlantic, but it also produced one of 3 landfalling Category 5 hurricane in Hurricane Andrew late August.
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216. yoboi
Quoting HCW:
I seem to be the only person talking about this but we need to watch the Gulf Of Mexico closely now as a cold front is going to stall and I expect our next Invest to be in the GOM off the LA coast by Tuesday morning


it's already in the GOM
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2011 Tropical Cyclone Activity
Accumulated Cyclone Energy
Updated Aug 14, 2011 12:59

BASIN CURRENT YTD
Northern Hemisphere
196.9955
Western Pacific
130.363
North Atlantic
11.0725
Eastern Pacific
54.4575
North Indian
1.1025
Southern Hemisphere
140.398

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cyberteddys rant almost as more plusses than the blog itself
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
Quoting Patrap:
The Chart,, brought to you by, FRESCA.



Wat about the nhc chart that ones better
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
No need to be sorry about your rant Cybrteddy, Very Well Said. +1000
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The Chart,, brought to you by, FRESCA.

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Quoting CybrTeddy:



.. your kidding right? You do realize, that every hurricane season since the beginning of the satellite era has seen a hurricane? And why don't you give facts to back that up, you've been saying for a few days that there won't be any hurricanes this year and why is that? Look at the SST's in the Atlantic, they're sky rocking above normal.

You know why there is dry air? Downward MJO causing suppressing convection and an average amount of SAL. You know why half our systems are weak this year? They're trough splits.. tell me when was the last time you saw a trough split form off the eastern seaboard that became a Category 3-4 hurricane? 1984 is your answer. Then finally look at last year, one quick glance at wiki would be all it would take - here, I'll link it for you. Link. Ignore Alex, Alex was a one-off, not even 2005 saw a Category 2 in the Gulf in June. Please, look at TD2, Bonnie, Colin then TD5. Then also remember we had several other invests that attempted to become tropical depressions that year.. then look at when we had our first true major hurricane, and our first hurricane in over two months.

The 2nd to last week of August, then what happened with the upward MJO came spinning around? Season went out of hand. Okay sure - no US landfalls. Sorry to break it to you, the USA is not the only country on the map. You want to hear something? Karl caused $5.6 billion dollars in damages.. one Category. It was IIRC the 3rd most destructive hurricane to hit Mexico. It was not retired because Mexico didn't request it. Please, look at the facts and stop making assumptions 'oh, its only mid-August and no hurricanes season is a bust inactive', and I'm tired of stressing this point if no one is going to listen and I had to rant and annoy you all for it last year too if you remember - we are ahead of schedule and conditions are primed for a change. The ECMWF shows a hurricane hitting the islands.. and that reverts right back to what I just said, do people on the islands not count? I know people who live in Barbados, I would be very upset if a bad hurricane hit them anytime soon.

Then look at this - this season the conditions are the same as last year and we're cranking out more storms that are facing the same conditions. What does that tell you? Once conditions lessen up, like they did last year, like they do EVERY year.. things will get active. You'll get your hurricane.

Sorry everyone, had to rant, very grumpy this PM, lol.


+1... 7 storms by mid aug and they still arent happy if someone would kindly post THE CHART downcasters could see that we need a new one
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Quoting CybrTeddy:



.. your kidding right? You do realize, that every hurricane season since the beginning of the satellite era has seen a hurricane? And why don't you give facts to back that up, you've been saying for a few days that there won't be any hurricanes this year and why is that? Look at the SST's in the Atlantic, they're sky rocking above normal.

You know why there is dry air? Downward MJO causing suppressing convection and an average amount of SAL. You know why half our systems are weak this year? They're trough splits.. tell me when was the last time you saw a trough split form off the eastern seaboard that became a Category 3-4 hurricane? 1984 is your answer. Then finally look at last year, one quick glance at wiki would be all it would take - here, I'll link it for you. Link. Ignore Alex, Alex was a one-off, not even 2005 saw a Category 2 in the Gulf in June. Please, look at TD2, Bonnie, Colin then TD5. Then also remember we had several other invests that attempted to become tropical depressions that year.. then look at when we had our first true major hurricane, and our first hurricane in over two months.

The 2nd to last week of August, then what happened with the upward MJO came spinning around? Season went out of hand. Okay sure - no US landfalls. Sorry to break it to you, the USA is not the only country on the map. You want to hear something? Karl caused $5.6 billion dollars in damages.. one Category. It was IIRC the 3rd most destructive hurricane to hit Mexico. It was not retired because Mexico didn't request it. Please, look at the facts and stop making assumptions 'oh, its only mid-August and no hurricanes season is a bust inactive', and I'm tired of stressing this point if no one is going to listen and I had to rant and annoy you all for it last year too if you remember - we are ahead of schedule and conditions are primed for a change. The ECMWF shows a hurricane hitting the islands.. and that reverts right back to what I just said, do people on the islands not count? I know people who live in Barbados, I would be very upset if a bad hurricane hit them anytime soon.

Then look at this - this season the conditions are the same as last year and we're cranking out more storms that are facing the same conditions. What does that tell you? Once conditions lessen up, like they did last year, like they do EVERY year.. things will get active. You'll get your hurricane.

Sorry everyone, had to rant, very grumpy this PM, lol.

Rant warranted. +1000 on that rant.
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207. Hugo7
Quoting CybrTeddy:



.. your kidding right? You do realize, that every hurricane season since the beginning of the satellite era has seen a hurricane? And why don't you give facts to back that up, you've been saying for a few days that there won't be any hurricanes this year and why is that? Look at the SST's in the Atlantic, they're sky rocking above normal.

You know why there is dry air? Downward MJO causing suppressing convection and an average amount of SAL. You know why half our systems are weak this year? They're trough splits.. tell me when was the last time you saw a trough split form off the eastern seaboard that became a Category 3-4 hurricane? 1984 is your answer. Then finally look at last year, one quick glance at wiki would be all it would take - here, I'll link it for you. Link. Ignore Alex, Alex was a one-off, not even 2005 saw a Category 2 in the Gulf in June. Please, look at TD2, Bonnie, Colin then TD5. Then also remember we had several other invests that attempted to become tropical depressions that year.. then look at when we had our first true major hurricane, and our first hurricane in over two months.

The 2nd to last week of August, then what happened with the upward MJO came spinning around? Season went out of hand. Okay sure - no US landfalls. Sorry to break it to you, the USA is not the only country on the map. You want to hear something? Karl caused $5.6 billion dollars in damages.. one Category. It was IIRC the 3rd most destructive hurricane to hit Mexico. It was not retired because Mexico didn't request it. Please, look at the facts and stop making assumptions 'oh, its only mid-August and no hurricanes season is a bust inactive', and I'm tired of stressing this point if no one is going to listen and I had to rant and annoy you all for it last year too if you remember - we are ahead of schedule and conditions are primed for a change. The ECMWF shows a hurricane hitting the islands.. and that reverts right back to what I just said, do people on the islands not count? I know people who live in Barbados, I would be very upset if a bad hurricane hit them anytime soon.

Then look at this - this season the conditions are the same as last year and we're cranking out more storms that are facing the same conditions. What does that tell you? Once conditions lessen up, like they did last year, like they do EVERY year.. things will get active. You'll get your hurricane.

Sorry everyone, had to rant, very grumpy this PM, lol.


Agree with you 100%. Just getting to the hight of the season and already way ahead, seems very active to me so far.
Member Since: June 1, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 64
Afternoon all. Isn't it typically quiet until about now in the season? Some hurricanes that affected my area (Gulfcoast) over the years were only the 2nd or 3rd named storm and they developed much later than mid August. Granted it may have been a less active time overall but it only takes one and sometimes it's quality over quantity. And yes the GOM is hot, hot, hot...
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Cold Tops:


TD7 is centered just NW of those cloud tops as seen in this visible loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.htm l

Still though, looks a bit better organized than earlier this morning.
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Does anybody know what storm accumlated the most ACE in the ATL or PAC?

What about WPAC?
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There is something significant here...

I believe if TD7 becomes Gert but does not become a hurricane, this will be the first time in Atlantic basin recorded history we've gone this far down the list without having a hurricane...wow!
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Quoting weatherh98:


but we have had so many storms


But the storms so far had not been producing big ACE numbers as the more intense,the more units they get.
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Quoting yesterway:


Agreed. For those people who are anxious for hurricane development; you can relax. This is not going to be the season for hurricanes nor land falling US systems. It is going to remain quiet. Fish anyone?



.. your kidding right? You do realize, that every hurricane season since the beginning of the satellite era has seen a hurricane? And why don't you give facts to back that up, you've been saying for a few days that there won't be any hurricanes this year and why is that? Look at the SST's in the Atlantic, they're sky rocking above normal.

You know why there is dry air? Downward MJO causing suppressing convection and an average amount of SAL. You know why half our systems are weak this year? They're trough splits.. tell me when was the last time you saw a trough split form off the eastern seaboard that became a Category 3-4 hurricane? 1984 is your answer. Then finally look at last year, one quick glance at wiki would be all it would take - here, I'll link it for you. Link. Ignore Alex, Alex was a one-off, not even 2005 saw a Category 2 in the Gulf in June. Please, look at TD2, Bonnie, Colin then TD5. Then also remember we had several other invests that attempted to become tropical depressions that year.. then look at when we had our first true major hurricane, and our first hurricane in over two months.

The 2nd to last week of August, then what happened with the upward MJO came spinning around? Season went out of hand. Okay sure - no US landfalls. Sorry to break it to you, the USA is not the only country on the map. You want to hear something? Karl caused $5.6 billion dollars in damages.. one Category. It was IIRC the 3rd most destructive hurricane to hit Mexico. It was not retired because Mexico didn't request it. Please, look at the facts and stop making assumptions 'oh, its only mid-August and no hurricanes season is a bust inactive', and I'm tired of stressing this point if no one is going to listen and I had to rant and annoy you all for it last year too if you remember - we are ahead of schedule and conditions are primed for a change. The ECMWF shows a hurricane hitting the islands.. and that reverts right back to what I just said, do people on the islands not count? I know people who live in Barbados, I would be very upset if a bad hurricane hit them anytime soon.

Then look at this - this season the conditions are the same as last year and we're cranking out more storms that are facing the same conditions. What does that tell you? Once conditions lessen up, like they did last year, like they do EVERY year.. things will get active. You'll get your hurricane.

Sorry everyone, had to rant, very grumpy this PM, lol.
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200. KBH
Quoting caneswatch:


I agree. I was surprised as well. He also said no models were forming anything. I guess he didn't see the Euro model forming what would be Harvey or Irene. Like you, I also think this could be a TD by mid-week.

well that's why we leave these things to the experts, for us non-experts it would be a good time to start the hurricane preparedness, just in case
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Quoting weatherh98:


is that an hh on td7



yup


funny no ones been following it
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
Quoting Tazmanian:
Time: 16:58:30Z
Coordinates: 26.3333N 62.85W
Acft. Static Air Press: 375.7 mb (~ 11.09 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 8,057 meters (~ 26,434 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: 431 meters (~ 1,414 feet)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 145° at 17 knots (From the SE at ~ 19.5 mph)
Air Temp: -19.5°C (~ -3.1°F)
Dew Pt: -26.9°C (~ -16.4°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 18 knots (~ 20.7 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 5 knots (~ 5.8 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr (~ 0 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data


is that an hh on td7
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
I see it's raining at Watkins Glen.
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Quoting HCW:
I seem to be the only person talking about this but we need to watch the Gulf Of Mexico closely now as a cold front is going to stall and I expect our next Invest to be in the GOM off the LA coast by Tuesday morning


I see the front out there and the tstorms are poppin but...
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
195. HCW
I seem to be the only person talking about this but we need to watch the Gulf Of Mexico closely now as a cold front is going to stall and I expect our next Invest to be in the GOM off the LA coast by Tuesday morning
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Time: 16:58:30Z
Coordinates: 26.3333N 62.85W
Acft. Static Air Press: 375.7 mb (~ 11.09 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 8,057 meters (~ 26,434 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: 431 meters (~ 1,414 feet)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 145° at 17 knots (From the SE at ~ 19.5 mph)
Air Temp: -19.5°C (~ -3.1°F)
Dew Pt: -26.9°C (~ -16.4°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 18 knots (~ 20.7 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 5 knots (~ 5.8 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr (~ 0 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
So far the ACE for the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season is a very anemic 10.305. It has to pickup fast because it will not be above 100 units to be considered an active season.
Does anybody know what storm accumlated the most ACE in the ATL or PAC?
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
So far the ACE for the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season is a very anemic 10.305. It has to pickup fast because it will not be above 100 units to be considered an active season.


but we have had so many storms
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
It is in front of it but looks like it is beginning to wrap it into the circulation.


yup on the last two or three frames you can cleary see about where the centr is and the storms formin over it
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
So far the ACE for the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season is a very anemic 10.305. It has to pickup fast because it will not be above 100 units to be considered an active season.

Last year on this date ACE was an even more anemic 9.975.

It'll come. All in good time...
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12Z NOGAPS is on board with ECWMF..heading for the bahamas

Link
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Quoting AussieStorm:

That would be Colin, he detached, remained strong and was give TS status.


oh ok
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
Quoting scott39:
ex93L convection is way in front of it.
It is in front of it but looks like it is beginning to wrap it into the circulation.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
So far the ACE for the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season is a very anemic 10.305. It has to pickup fast because it will not be above 100 units to be considered an active season.
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Quoting scott39:
ex93L convection is way in front of it.


yea its out there a good bit
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Don’t worry about stall training. All students need to do stall awareness training to get their pilot’s license. A stall has nothing to do with the engine; it’s an aerodynamic condition where the wings provides no lift.

All airplanes can fly without stalling with NO engine power. Even the Airbus A320 that landed in the Hudson river never stalled. It was flying and the wings were generating lift the whole time. It’s just that it couldn’t gain altitude and had to land somewhere close. Small planes can fly almost a mile for every 1000 feet of altitude with no engine power.

In a stall, the angle of attack of the wing relative to the direction of travel of the plane exceeds a critical angle. The airflow (across the top and bottom of the wing) then separates and the wing looses lift. This can happen with or without power. An example of stalling is the many dive bomber pilots were killed during WW2 during stalls – at full power. They dove to drop their bombs and when they pulled the stick back to lift the nose, the angle of attack of the wings exceeded the critical angel (with the direction of travel) and the wings stalled. They were too low to recover and many aircraft went into the ground.

Stall awareness training is done at high altitudes (plenty of time for recovery) with a trained instructor. The controls get mushy, the stall warning goes off, and eventually the wings stall. After a full stall, then the nose of the plane will drop and the airplane will start “flying” again when air again starts flowing properly over the wings. It is important for student pilots to recognize upcoming stalls in a safe environment so that they can avoid stalls when they are flying slow and are close to the ground. Aircraft are very robust and in most non-military aircraft – the plane will recover from a stall even if the pilot does nothing. Again, altitude brings safety and time to recover.

I hope this makes you feel better about stall awareness training… It's important and fun...
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Quoting Tazmanian:



not really i think are last name storm we this had was still a part a front be for it detach itself

That would be Colin, he detached, remained strong and was give TS status.
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ex93L convection is way in front of it.
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Hurricane Diana formed on Sept 10th 1984 and hit the outer Banks as a Cat 2 hurricane.

Link

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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


One aid is the Cyclone Phase analysis. Most are derived from model data, but there is one from AMSU satellites, but that is only run on existing invests or designated cyclones.


Ok. Thanks!
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Quoting AussieStorm:


Click for full image


Even still, Franklin was even more embedded in a frontal boundary than this area. The boundary looks very weak and that AOI should remove itself from the boundary soon.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


I don't see it as being part of any frontal boundary at the present time. Plus, invest status can be put on anything, whether it's cold core or warm core. There are no guidelines for invest status, which is why it's highly surprising that this area is not Invest 96L.



Click for full image
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Afternoon, everybody.

So press, your boy is doing this in an actual airplane?????

[shudder]

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Quoting AussieStorm:






The Gulf is sizzling....
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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