Tropical Depression Seven forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:25 PM GMT on August 14, 2011

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The latest in our unusual number of weak tropical cyclones this season, Tropical Depression Seven, has formed to the southeast of Bermuda. Unless you live in Bermuda, TD 7 is not going to be a concern. Radar out of Bermuda shows an area of rain on the northern side of TD 7 beginning to approach the island, and rain from the storm will likely affect the island tonight and on Monday. TD 7 is not well-organized, and has only limited heavy thunderstorms, as seen on visible satellite images. While wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, dry air surrounds TD 7, and is keeping the storm from intensifying. None of the computer models foresee that TD 7 will ever become more than a weak tropical storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of TD 7.

92L
TD 7 isn't the only system Bermuda needs to watch, Invest 92L is a day behind it, and will follow a path very similar to TD 7's. The disturbance will pass close to Bermuda on Tuesday, bringing the island a second round of tropical rains. However, Invest 92L is very disorganized, as seen on recent visible satellite loops. Dry air and close proximity to TD 7 will likely keep 92L from showing significant development over the next two days, with NHC giving the system just a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa we've been tracking over the past few days, Invest 93L, has fallen apart and is no longer a threat to develop. This system will need to be watched once it enters the Caribbean later this week, though. None of the reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone formation predict development of this system or any new disturbances over the coming week.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


By referring to last year we aren't saying this year will be like last year. We are saying it's possible that we can have a bunch of weak storms up until now and then have a bunch of hurricanes like last year did. We are providing evidence as to why not having a hurricane yet doesn't just mean an automatic "bust", I guess.


Yes I know but every year is different, not nearly as many people point out a year where it went the other way!
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Quoting wxgeek723:


One of the most active July's? Yes three named storms form, so statiscally it was pretty active. However in terms of ACE, this season is certainly not in the league of Julys like 1933, 1996, 2005, and 2008. 1997 also had a very active July but do you know what happened after that? The season fell apart. I'm just tired of the people on here constantly trying to DESTROY those that try and say "Maybe 2011 won't be a horrific season". It very well may be, but it very well couldn't be.


1997 fell apart starting in August, we're at 3 named in August.

When you say that 'okay this season might not be as horrible as some as making it out to be' I don't have a problem with that, but the person I was quoting clearly called this hurricane season a bust. That's just plain stupid to say in any hurricane season, not just this one.

There's a difference between the two. Just sayin.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24169
Quoting IKE:

Joe Bastardi

A 29.80 inch ( 1009 mb)
35 kt tropical storm named .. Gert Again a non event even on Bermuda
as there is no west side to storm


I loathe to agree with Bastardi in any way as he tends to exaggerate things too much, but if it wasn't in the proximity of Bermuda, I'm not sure it would have been upgraded.

It's a bit premature. It's managed to hang on to one thunderstorm for a couple of hours and immediately gets the jump?

Guess they're the experts.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Not that past results are a reliable indicator, but 2011 is now four storms ahead of 2010 at this point, and dead even with the hyperactive 1995 (which ended with 20 named storms).

Climatologically speaking, the seventh named storm doesn't appear until after peak day, September 16.

I will lay money on us having several days with more than one major going at a time. During such times--there were seven of them last year--ACE can climb by 10 points or more in a single day. Not too mention, long tracking major such as Igor can add dozens of points all by themselves over their lives.

BTW, here's the ATCF line on Gert:

AL, 07, 2011081418, , BEST, 0, 286N, 631W, 35, 1009, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 50, 0, 0, 1014, 130, 25, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GERT, M,


Good post, Nea.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


And you obviously don't read this blog very much, do you?

Where did Teddy say TROLLS were disputing the facts? He was countering the usual people who say the season is going to be a bust before it even really starts. It happens every year during this time and it's ridiculous.


yeah those are called trolls, people who do it just to say it and see a reaction.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


You can go here and scroll through SSTs and anomalies for today's date from 1979 until now. The Gulf was warmer in 1998 at this time...


Some good plots, but unfortunately doesn't have any percentile/min/max information. I think that is what we'd need to really see the context of "above normal" or "below normal" temps. That's the direction operational forecasting has gone for many things, like precipitable water anomalies for forecasting heavy rainfall potential. 1" above normal can mean entirely different things depending on season - and thus, the min/max.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
LOL.... I noticed! and in a very erudite, scientific way, too. I just am ticked at the condescending attitude.... i.e. [pat on the head] I know everything; u r too dumb to understand.... hate that tone.

Lots of pple in here have said they don't think it will be all that active. We are getting tired of the pple who are taking one of the most active July's we've had in the historical record and using it to say the season will be inactive. It's illogical, which [IMO, rightfully] gets on pple's nerves. We're also getting tired of the pontificators who insist they know what the season's bringing before we even get to the heart of the season. Even the old timers, before all the newfangled models and climatological charts could tell you:

June too soon
July stand by
August come they must
September remember
October all over

So why can't these other pple at least say "I DON'T THINK" instead of pretending they know the future? It gets old.


One of the most active July's? Yes three named storms form, so statiscally it was pretty active. However in terms of ACE, this season is certainly not in the league of Julys like 1933, 1996, 2005, and 2008. 1997 also had a very active July but do you know what happened after that? The season fell apart. I'm just tired of the people on here constantly trying to DESTROY those that try and say "Maybe 2011 won't be a horrific season". It very well may be, but it very well couldn't be.
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92L and ex93L needs toob e watch



ex 93L still have a good ch of becomeing somein
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115235
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Quoting MysteryMeat:
I'm not going to lie, you guys are some of the most easily trolled people on the Internet. Someone declares the hurricane season over, obvious troll is obvious, yet we get diatribes and RAGE about it. I mean, I could get on my high horse every time someone solemnly announces "we need to watch this system" because it's unnecessary; if you spend any time on this blog, you're going to keep an eye on every splash of white on water in the satellite picture or yellow circle on the TWO map.

Just let it go. It's not worth the drama really.


And you obviously don't read this blog very much, do you?

Where did Teddy say TROLLS were disputing the facts? He was countering the usual people who say the season is going to be a bust before it even really starts. It happens every year during this time and it's ridiculous.
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Quoting MysteryMeat:
I'm not going to lie, you guys are some of the most easily trolled people on the Internet. Someone declares the hurricane season over, obvious troll is obvious, yet we get diatribes and RAGE about it. I mean, I could get on my high horse every time someone solemnly announces "we need to watch this system" because it's unnecessary; if you spend any time on this blog, you're going to keep an eye on every splash of white on water in the satellite picture or yellow circle on the TWO map.

Just let it go. It's not worth the drama really.

Maybe. But at least 40 people disagree with you. ;-)
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Quoting scott39:
ex93L is still a big wave. Look at the convection wrapping in from the SW and S of it. I still think this is the one to watch, and will be the first hurricane of the season.

Guess well just have to wait and see once it gets past 55w should get intresting.
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Damages in Mexico from Arlene: $213.2 million
Source: Wiki
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Quoting wxgeek723:


I will apologize for not pointing out that there are a few people on here who aren't that bad. That's what I was referring to. No one seems to point those seasons out. It's always LOOK BACK AT LAST YEAR! THIS YEAR WILL DEFINITELY PULL THAT OFF. I realize some of them post those messages with the intent to irritate people, I noted in comment that some of them do deserve harsh responses.


By referring to last year we aren't saying this year will be like last year. We are saying it's possible that we can have a bunch of weak storms up until now and then have a bunch of hurricanes like last year did. We are providing evidence as to why not having a hurricane yet doesn't just mean an automatic "bust", I guess.
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I see a more defined area of vorticity just west of 50W with Ex-93L.
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308. IKE

Joe Bastardi

A 29.80 inch ( 1009 mb)
35 kt tropical storm named .. Gert Again a non event even on Bermuda
as there is no west side to storm
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Not that past results are a reliable indicator, but 2011 is now four storms ahead of 2010 at this point, and dead even with the hyperactive 1995 (which ended with 20 named storms).

Climatologically speaking, the seventh named storm doesn't appear until after peak day, September 16.

I will lay money on us having several days with more than one major going at a time. During such times--there were seven of them last year--ACE can climb by 10 points or more in a single day. Not to mention, long tracking majors such as Igor can add dozens of points all by themselves over their lives.

BTW, here's the ATCF line on Gert:

AL, 07, 2011081418, , BEST, 0, 286N, 631W, 35, 1009, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 50, 0, 0, 1014, 130, 25, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GERT, M,
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Quoting HurricaneNewb:
In the water vapor loop is ex93l tapping into 92l or is 92l pulling bits into it? Just looks like the deep convection ex93l had a few hours ago is lessoning.
ex93L is still a big wave. Look at the convection wrapping in from the SW and S of it. I still think this is the one to watch, and will be the first hurricane of the season.
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
Cybr's post is at +40. That's gotta be some kinda blog record lol.

Probably lol
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Quoting thegoldenstrand:
Remnants of 93L appear to be developing very large circulation... might bear watching clouds that once were 93L and a hundred miles to the south and southeast of or wider are doing small flare ups... appears ready to get some organization in next day or two... could become a TD within 48 hours imo.




ture but it still have a lot of work too do i say at lest the next 3 days be for we see any kind of TD from it
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115235
I'm not going to lie, you guys are some of the most easily trolled people on the Internet. Someone declares the hurricane season over, obvious troll is obvious, yet we get diatribes and RAGE about it. I mean, I could get on my high horse every time someone solemnly announces "we need to watch this system" because it's unnecessary; if you spend any time on this blog, you're going to keep an eye on every splash of white on water in the satellite picture or yellow circle on the TWO map.

Just let it go. It's not worth the drama really.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
LOL thanks Grothar..

but I usually need at least a 2nd cup by 0900. ;)
"Would you like a cup of coffee with that rant sir?" ;)
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Remnants of 93L appear to be developing very large circulation... might bear watching clouds that once were 93L and a hundred miles to the south and southeast of or wider are doing small flare ups... appears ready to get some organization in next day or two... could become a TD within 48 hours imo.
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Cybr's post is at +40. That's gotta be some kinda blog record lol.
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Quoting Cotillion:


That isn't true.

It's all about tone, delivery and facts, regardless of whether you 'downplay', 'overplay' or stick with the usual predictions. A lot who say it are clearly looking to wind up people on purpose, throwing blanket statements like they've already discussed with Nature exactly what will happen this year.

A few people, including myself, have cautioned against any blanket certainty that an early active season leads to an active or hyperactive season. There have been a few seasons - 1908, 1959, 1966, 1997 for example - where it did not continue. August through to October was quiet in comparison to most seasons. Even very active seasons, like 1936, had an absolute barnstorming start, but basically the season finished in mid September. On the other hand, there are seasons where it has led to a hyperactive season.

In about six weeks, we'll know more.


I will apologize for not pointing out that there are a few people on here who aren't that bad. That's what I was referring to. No one seems to point those seasons out. It's always LOOK BACK AT LAST YEAR! THIS YEAR WILL DEFINITELY PULL THAT OFF. I realize some of them post those messages with the intent to irritate people, I noted in comment that some of them do deserve harsh responses.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Don't worry Baha.. I already slammed him down today @post 201. LOL.
LOL.... I noticed! and in a very erudite, scientific way, too. I just am ticked at the condescending attitude.... i.e. [pat on the head] I know everything; u r too dumb to understand.... hate that tone.

Quoting wxgeek723:
Seems to me like anyone who dare say the season won't be as active as forecast is immediately declared a troll and then this "troll" receives a massive counter response in favor of a severe hurricane season. SMH. Though I'll admit a few of them are trolls that deserve it. Only some though.
Lots of pple in here have said they don't think it will be all that active. We are getting tired of the pple who are taking one of the most active July's we've had in the historical record and using it to say the season will be inactive. It's illogical, which [IMO, rightfully] gets on pple's nerves. We're also getting tired of the pontificators who insist they know what the season's bringing before we even get to the heart of the season. Even the old timers, before all the newfangled models and climatological charts could tell you:

June too soon
July stand by
August come they must
September remember
October all over

So why can't these other pple at least say "I DON'T THINK" instead of pretending they know the future? It gets old.
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In the water vapor loop is ex93l tapping into 92l or is 92l pulling bits into it? Just looks like the deep convection ex93l had a few hours ago is lessoning.
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They haven't fixed this? LMAO:
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Hello??? Earth to the NHC...No mention of THIS:



Ooooh...this is why the NHC is missing it...this feature looks a lot less impressive when you zoom out a little like on this image:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/vis-l.jpg

Your eyes are drawn more to Gert and 92L instead of the feature N of Bermuda....
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 493 Comments: 3688
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


EXCELLENT...one step closer to breaking a record...if Gert manages to NOT become a hurricane...then this will be the first time we've gone through 7 names without having a hurricane...beating 2002 which had 6 names without having a hurricane.


Consecutively to start the season*. Of course. ;)

It may also be the longest consecutive run without any upgrade to hurricane, regardless of the time in the season.
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Quoting Patrap:
259. midgulfmom 12:51 PM CDT on August 14, 2011

Thanx mgm,,the truth will and should never harm.

Actually,,Im pressing the issue as the Highest authoritie's here are well aware of it.
OK...I trust your judgement, instincts and common sense and honor your sense of justice. :)
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Quoting AussieStorm:

There is no U in Qantas.



Sowwy Mom,,but no spell checka'

And IE sucks too..

Im on a friend's puter.

Most know Im a FireFox kinda Blogger.


IE ..pffffffthhhhh

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Good Afternoon...

Looks like we have Gert.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Hello??? Earth to the NHC...No mention of THIS:



LOL...what the heck is that?! Is that the thing north of Bermuda that was mentioned here a few times...

Darn...I missed that because I was looking at infrared instead of visible in that area....maybe that is the mistake the NHC is making...LOL
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 493 Comments: 3688
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


EXCELLENT...one step closer to breaking a record...if Gert manages to NOT become a hurricane...then this will be the first time we've gone through 7 names without having a hurricane...beating 2002 which had 6 names without having a hurricane.
It also took until 9/5/2002 to get 6.
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Quoting wxgeek723:
Seems to me like anyone who dare say the season won't be as active as forecast is immediately declared a troll and then this "troll" receives a massive counter response in favor of a severe hurricane season. SMH. Though I'll admit a few of them are trolls that deserve it. Only some though.


That isn't true.

It's all about tone, delivery and facts, regardless of whether you 'downplay', 'overplay' or stick with the usual predictions. A lot who say it are clearly looking to wind up people on purpose, throwing blanket statements like they've already discussed with Nature exactly what will happen this year.

A few people, including myself, have cautioned against any blanket certainty that an early active season leads to an active or hyperactive season. There have been a few seasons - 1908, 1959, 1966, 1997 for example - where it did not continue. August through to October was quiet in comparison to most seasons. Even very active seasons, like 1936, had an absolute barnstorming start, but basically the season finished in mid September. On the other hand, there are seasons where it has led to a hyperactive season.

In about six weeks, we'll know more.
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98E STILL not a tropical depression.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Hello??? Earth to the NHC...No mention of THIS:



and no 93L either.
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Hello??? Earth to the NHC...No mention of THIS:

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LOL thanks Grothar..

but I usually need at least a 2nd cup by 0900. ;)
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24169
Quoting Patrap:



Finding a handles addy is easy here,,

Flew Quantas once,,was a fine pleasure

There is no U in Qantas.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
And we crank out yet another Tropical Storm, Gert.

7-0-0



where are we head now that we have Gert
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115235
I had a Aunt Gert,,was a wundeful Lady married to my Great Uncle.

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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO THE SEVENTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...
2:00 PM AST Sun Aug 14
Location: 28.6°N 63.1°W
Max sustained: 40 mph
Moving: NNW at 7 mph
Min pressure: 1009 mb


EXCELLENT...one step closer to breaking a record...if Gert manages to NOT become a hurricane...then this will be the first time we've gone through 7 names without having a hurricane...beating 2002 which had 6 names without having a hurricane.
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 493 Comments: 3688
Quoting AussieStorm:

And where did you get my address from???
And How do you know it's coming on a Qantas jet??





Flew Quantas once,,was a fine pleasure
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Quoting Patrap:
The Chart,, brought to you by, FRESCA.

Also a good idea to go and read NHC's Most Extreme Cyclones. It's a great read for pple interested in record activity, and also an object lesson in what pple "think" should be happening.

According to the data, we've very few years in the last 160 when there were no hurricanes recorded at all.

Quoting midgulfmom:
Exactly...my little non technical post was trying to say something similiar... about the same time:

Afternoon all. Isn't it typically quiet until about
now in the season? Some hurricanes that affected my area (Gulfcoast) over the years were only the 2nd or 3rd named storm and they developed much later than mid August. Granted it may have been a less active time overall but it only takes one and sometimes it's quality over quantity. And yes the GOM is hot, hot, hot...


Yours was more precise and better!
I [+]ed yours too, though.... lol

The thing is, some pple are still confusing "high-activity" with "high-impact". 2010 could potentially be described as high-activity, low-impact from the US point of view. OTOH, people in Mexico, the Eastern Caribbean, and Eastern Canada would not consider 2010 a low-impact year.
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And we crank out yet another Tropical Storm, Gert.

7-0-0
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24169
Say hello to Gert
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.