Tropical Depression Seven forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:25 PM GMT on August 14, 2011

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The latest in our unusual number of weak tropical cyclones this season, Tropical Depression Seven, has formed to the southeast of Bermuda. Unless you live in Bermuda, TD 7 is not going to be a concern. Radar out of Bermuda shows an area of rain on the northern side of TD 7 beginning to approach the island, and rain from the storm will likely affect the island tonight and on Monday. TD 7 is not well-organized, and has only limited heavy thunderstorms, as seen on visible satellite images. While wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, dry air surrounds TD 7, and is keeping the storm from intensifying. None of the computer models foresee that TD 7 will ever become more than a weak tropical storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of TD 7.

92L
TD 7 isn't the only system Bermuda needs to watch, Invest 92L is a day behind it, and will follow a path very similar to TD 7's. The disturbance will pass close to Bermuda on Tuesday, bringing the island a second round of tropical rains. However, Invest 92L is very disorganized, as seen on recent visible satellite loops. Dry air and close proximity to TD 7 will likely keep 92L from showing significant development over the next two days, with NHC giving the system just a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa we've been tracking over the past few days, Invest 93L, has fallen apart and is no longer a threat to develop. This system will need to be watched once it enters the Caribbean later this week, though. None of the reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone formation predict development of this system or any new disturbances over the coming week.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting CybrTeddy:


I do not think 92L has a closed low, as there is little to no west winds from obs. At this time, no models develop 93L either.
Not trying to be rude but I think he was asking YOUR opinion on 93L not the models.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Emily caused ~5 million in losses here in PR.


Ooopss...how could I be so stupid...I forgot about Emily's impacts....need to wake up here LOL
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 448 Comments: 3623
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Looking at that, it looks like 92L's vorticity is being eaten alive by Gert.



ok but once are TS moves a way i think it has a better ch
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114792
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I do not think 92L has a closed low, as there is little to no west winds from obs. At this time, no models develop 93L either.

The problem with 93 is that there is dry air west of it for a thousand miles.......

I dont see how it can become anything with those conditions.
But it could bring some heavy showers here, if it stays connected to the ITCZ.
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Arlene is the only Atlantic storm this year with impact to land....Gert will likely be the second with Bermuda...but Bermuda probably won't get that much impact like Arlene in Mexico

Emily caused ~5 million in losses here in PR.
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Quoting NorthofAtlanta:


Pat,
Totally agree, but for those who are stuck on IE for whatever reason, IESpell works great and it's free for personal use. I haven't needed it since moving to FF but it can be handy.


Google Chrome sped up my internet considerably and does spellcheck. I was blaming Comcast (and my antique computer) for being so slow and Comcast said to check my browser. Boy, were they ever right!!! Saved me from buying a new 'puter.

PS 90 deg. in SE FL--feels like 100 deg. so says TWC. Even the bugs are complainin'. The "cold" water from the tap is even tepid!!!

AND my A/C broke yesterday on the bottom floor--so I retreated up a floor. Puter up here, anyway!!!!

Keep it up guys--I am in awe of your knowledge and am amazed at what schooling some of you have been thru to do this. I don't think anybody in the general public knows or appreciates what it takes to be a real weatherperson/forecaster!
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Quoting Tazmanian:
CybrTeddy do you think 92L have a close low and do you think ex 93L have a good ch comeing back too life it has been doing well so far


all so i like you too look at this 850mb vort it seem like its comeing back with ex 93L






all so what dos mode runs show on ex 93L

Looking at that, it looks like 92L's vorticity is being eaten alive by Gert.
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364. ackee
Quoting stoormfury:
low level clouds streaming to what looks like LLc near 12n 50w
agree be intresting to see how it looks tonight there DRY AIR IN THE eastern carrb thow think must devlop before reach the EASTERN CARRB next chance might be wesrtn carrb or wont devlop at all just my view
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Whoa! Damages in Mexico from Arlene!: $213.2 million


Arlene is the only Atlantic storm this year with impact to land....Gert will likely be the second with Bermuda...but Bermuda probably won't get that much impact like Arlene in Mexico
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Strictly in terms of named storms, 2011 has now equaled 1997's total output.

To those comparing this season's "anemic" ACE with those of other years, here are some facts to put things into perspective: this year's Arlene, Emily, Cindy and Don each accumulated more ACE than 10 of 2005's 28 storms did, and this year's TS Bret accumulated more ACE than 12 of that year's storms.

FYI.

O_O
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


I do not think 92L has a closed low, as there is little to no west winds from obs. At this time, no models develop 93L either.


ok
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114792
Strictly in terms of named storms, 2011 has now equaled 1997's total output.

To those comparing this season's "anemic" ACE with those of other years, here are some facts to put things into perspective: this year's Arlene, Emily, Cindy and Don each accumulated more ACE than 10 of 2005's 28 storms did, and this year's TS Bret accumulated more ACE than 12 of that year's storms.

FYI.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
CybrTeddy do you think 92L have a close low and do you think ex 93L have a good ch comeing back too life it has been doing well so far


all so i like you too look at this 850mb vort it seem like its comeing back with ex 93L






all so what dos mode runs show on ex 93L


I do not think 92L has a closed low, as there is little to no west winds from obs. At this time, no models develop 93L either.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23663
CybrTeddy do you think 92L have a close low and do you think ex 93L have a good ch comeing back too life it has been doing well so far


all so i like you too look at this 850mb vort it seem like its comeing back with ex 93L






all so what dos mode runs show on ex 93L
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Quoting stoormfury:
low level clouds streaming to what looks like LLc near 12n 50w

I'm watching.....
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Quoting scott39:
ex93L is still a big wave. Look at the convection wrapping in from the SW and S of it. I still think this is the one to watch, and will be the first hurricane of the season.
Mind u, we thought that about a couple waves before.... lol.... but I gotta agree with you about 93L.... seems just the sneaky sort of wave to lie low when conditions are negative, then take massive advantage of rapidly improving conditions. However, we shall see sometime between now and Wed what takes place w/ it.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


And you obviously don't read this blog very much, do you?

Where did Teddy say TROLLS were disputing the facts? He was countering the usual people who say the season is going to be a bust before it even really starts. It happens every year during this time and it's ridiculous.


I've been reading this since 2005 and was F5ing every 10 seconds the night Wilma bombed out. I think that means I've read the blog very much.

The point is, people who say things like that clearly are trolling, even if they don't act like the traditional internet troll. It'd be like if I went to a Dallas Cowboys forum the day they lose their season opener and say "well, it's a bust season, all of Tony Romo's passes will recurve, might as well pack it up and wait till next year."

If you really think people are going to give up on the hurricane season because someone posts that it's over, well, that's just not very likely. If they're willing to believe xXxJuStInBiEbEr4PrEz420xXx over Jeff Masters, then no diatribe is going to make a smidge of a difference -- that boat has long since sailed into the North Atlantic graveyard.
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June too soon
July stand by
August come they must
September remember
October all over

OMG! Baha... my grandpere used to say that! (tears up) Thank you for that...LOL slightly different tho. (August a must)

(Sorry about the delay response...computer issue)
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Yeah you're right that every year is different. There is no such thing as a perfect analogue year. No one brought it up though because they were trying to show that it is possible to have weak storms up to this point and have it not be a bust.. A year showing it the other way wouldn't help prove that XD


Well that's because people on here seem to be in favor of the season not being a bust in the first place, of course they're not going to pick a year that did bust. That's what I'm saying.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


4 ahead of last year.

Gaston didn't form until the 1st of September.



not bad
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Quoting ackee:
what is to be blame for the weak system we have seen so far ?

A DRY AIR
B weak africa wave
C shear
D COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMP


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Quoting Tazmanian:
. CybrTeddy now that we have 7 name storm where dos that put us a head too and where we last year at this time


4 ahead of last year.

Gaston didn't form until the 1st of September.
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Quoting Patrap:



Sowwy Mom,,but no spell checka'

And IE sucks too..

Im on a friend's puter.

Most know Im a FireFox kinda Blogger.


IE ..pffffffthhhhh



Pat,
Totally agree, but for those who are stuck on IE for whatever reason, IESpell works great and it's free for personal use. I haven't needed it since moving to FF but it can be handy.
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nic 850mb vort with ex 93L


Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114792
Structurally, ex-93L is still not in a perfect state for investiture. But, I'm still thinking 93L will get re-invested today if only because of it's proximity to the Lesser Antilles.
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low level clouds streaming to what looks like LLc near 12n 50w
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. CybrTeddy now that we have 7 name storm where dos that put us a head too and where we last year at this time
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Quoting wxgeek723:


Yes I know but every year is different, not nearly as many people point out a year where it went the other way!


Yeah you're right that every year is different. There is no such thing as a perfect analogue year. No one brought it up though because they were trying to show that it is possible to have weak storms up to this point and have it not be a bust.. A year showing it the other way wouldn't help prove that XD
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Quoting deaddude21:
2 named storms behind 2005 at this time, and we just might get one more soon...

October is way overrated as a "peak" month, in fact it's not, don't look at the chart it is too long-term to be valid. Just look at 1995-2010. October the season is pretty much over, troughs take over, no more CV systems, action limited to Caribbean, end of the fun, etc. August and September are the peak months, August just has much more potential than October.


Also, smh @ at the politically correct leftists that come in with the stupid "The US isn't the only country on the map" BS. FYI your precious wall was torn down in 1989.


DeadDude21, I will take your age into consideration. But your last sentence was uncalled for.
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341. ackee
what is to be blame for the weak system we have seen so far ?

A DRY AIR
B weak africa wave
C shear
D COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMP
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Quoting stormpetrol:
ex93L imo is developing a large circulation, the NHC probably won't circle this again until development appears imminent, jmo.
They can make the crayon circle as big as they want.
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Quoting wxgeek723:


Absolutely, I've referred to that in my comments that there are some trolls here with ludicrous comments that need to be terminated. I just feel like there needs to be a little more tolerance of these possibilities.


Well said.
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Quoting stormpetrol:
ex93L imo is developing a large circulation, the NHC probably won't circle this again until development appears imminent, jmo.



ex 93L going too be fun
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114792
As have said before, but shall repeat:

Four or more storms prior to August:


1886 (4 storms, 4 hurricanes); 12-10-4
1887 (5 storms, 1 hurricane); 19-11-2
1908 (4 storms, 3 hurricanes); 10-6-1
1909 (4 storms, 2 hurricanes, 1 major); 11-6-4
1916 (4 storms, 3 hurricanes, 2 majors); 15-10-5
1933 (5 storms, 2 hurricanes); 21-10-5
1936 (5 storms, 2 hurricanes); 16-7-1
1959 (5 storms, 3 hurricanes); 11-7-2
1966 (5 storms, 4 hurricanes, 1 major); 11-7-3
1995 (5 storms, 1 hurricane*); 19-11-5
1997 (5 storms, 2 hurricanes); 8-3-1
2003 (4 storms, 2 hurricanes); 16-7-3
2005 (7 storms, 3 hurricanes, 2 majors); 28-15-7
2008 (4 storms, 2 hurricanes, 1 major); 16-8-5
2011 -

In August, they did this:

1886: 3 storms, all majors
1887: 2 storms, both majors
1908: 1 storm
1909: 3 storms, 1 major
1916: 4 storms, 3 hurricanes, 1 major
1933: 7 storms, 3 hurricanes, 1 major
1936: 6 storms, 3 hurricanes
1959: 1 storm
1966: 1 storm, major
1995: 7 storms, 4 hurricanes, 1 major
1997: none
2003: 3 storms, 2 hurricanes, 1 major
2005: 5 storms, 2 hurricanes, 1 major
2008: 4 storms, 1 hurricane, 1 major
2011: -
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seriously can a ***** get a cat 5!!!!! these non-deservant named tropical storms are killing me!
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


1997 fell apart starting in August, we're at 3 named in August.

When you say that 'okay this season might not be as horrible as some as making it out to be' I don't have a problem with that, but the person I was quoting clearly called this hurricane season a bust. That's just plain stupid to say in any hurricane season, not just this one.

There's a difference between the two. Just sayin.


Absolutely, I've referred to that in my comments that there are some trolls here with ludicrous comments that need to be terminated. I just feel like there needs to be a little more tolerance of these possibilities.
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am not takeing my eyes off of ex 93L am watching it
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ex93L imo is developing a large circulation, the NHC probably won't circle this again until development appears imminent, jmo.
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Quoting deaddude21:
93L looking not too shabby as we approach diurnal minimum.
Its got "Im coming back" written all over it!
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Quoting BahaHurican:
The thing is, some pple are still confusing "high-activity" with "high-impact". 2010 could potentially be described as high-activity, low-impact from the US point of view. OTOH, people in Mexico, the Eastern Caribbean, and Eastern Canada would not consider 2010 a low-impact year.


Indeed. Between Earl and Igor, last year was most definitely NOT low impact in my neck of the woods.
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328. ackee
I CANT BELIVE the NHC still has not mestion EX 93L think its because model support is weak any ways how does this seasons match up with previous one 7 names storm is quiet a bit all been weak most N atlantic werid seasons might be the seasons of TS
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326. HCW
Shouldn't Gert have been retired back in 1993 so we would at least have a cooler name for a storm ?
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


By referring to last year we aren't saying this year will be like last year. We are saying it's possible that we can have a bunch of weak storms up until now and then have a bunch of hurricanes like last year did. We are providing evidence as to why not having a hurricane yet doesn't just mean an automatic "bust", I guess.


Yes I know but every year is different, not nearly as many people point out a year where it went the other way!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.