Tropical Depression Seven forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:25 PM GMT on August 14, 2011

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The latest in our unusual number of weak tropical cyclones this season, Tropical Depression Seven, has formed to the southeast of Bermuda. Unless you live in Bermuda, TD 7 is not going to be a concern. Radar out of Bermuda shows an area of rain on the northern side of TD 7 beginning to approach the island, and rain from the storm will likely affect the island tonight and on Monday. TD 7 is not well-organized, and has only limited heavy thunderstorms, as seen on visible satellite images. While wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, dry air surrounds TD 7, and is keeping the storm from intensifying. None of the computer models foresee that TD 7 will ever become more than a weak tropical storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of TD 7.

92L
TD 7 isn't the only system Bermuda needs to watch, Invest 92L is a day behind it, and will follow a path very similar to TD 7's. The disturbance will pass close to Bermuda on Tuesday, bringing the island a second round of tropical rains. However, Invest 92L is very disorganized, as seen on recent visible satellite loops. Dry air and close proximity to TD 7 will likely keep 92L from showing significant development over the next two days, with NHC giving the system just a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa we've been tracking over the past few days, Invest 93L, has fallen apart and is no longer a threat to develop. This system will need to be watched once it enters the Caribbean later this week, though. None of the reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone formation predict development of this system or any new disturbances over the coming week.

Jeff Masters

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Seems Levi is having internet issues but here is an excerpt from his Tropical Tidbits page on FB.

Former 93L looks more alive than yesterday, and is a clear feature headed for the Caribbean. Models have dropped it, but it may still have to be monitored for the reasons outlined yesterday.


He goes on to say that development in the next 48 hours is 0% in his opinion but may be a player after that.
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


This WV loop shows 93L holding its own right now, pushing that slug of dry air to its west out of the way...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.h tml

The loop also shows a brown swirl just N of Puerto Rico...which is an upper low that made Gert/94-L struggle earlier...which would suggest southerly shearing for 93L once it gets into the Caribbean. However....the upper-level wind vectors (HDW-H check box) show some anticyclonicity (upper ridging) over the east Caribbean and that upper low is also weakening. If 93L keeps this up (pushes out dry air and thrives under east Caribbean upper ridging), 93L could put on a show...we'll see...

Yeah, I saw all of that.
And I generally agree with you.
But still, the dry air is the current problem with 93L.

I have no idea what will happen in 2 days time....
Which was my original comment.
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We've had a lot of frontal boundary drama this year:

Big front stalls out in mid-July over open Atlantic...Bret and Cindy both develop from this front

Emily's remnant are finally done and over with when absorbed by a central Atlantic front...yet the southern end of this same front produces 94-L and eventually Gert....

Franklin formed from a frontal boundary decay off the SE US coast...and then gets absorbed by another frontal boundary across the N Atlantic. This same N Atlantic frontal boundary's west end decays and produces this very small but interesting spectacle N of Bermuda today....
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 539 Comments: 3712
GERT
is kinda small.
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Quoting midgulfmom:
June too soon
July stand by
August come they must
September remember
October all over

OMG! Baha... my grandpere used to say that! (tears up) Thank you for that...LOL slightly different tho. (August a must)

(Sorry about the delay response...computer issue)
LOL... my point... even the old folks seem to have better understanding than some of our "impatient" bloggers.... lol

I've seen several variations of this little ditty depending on where in the basin u hear it from.

And SNAP! on the computer issues.... been driving me crazy all p.m.....

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Quoting NICycloneChaser:


I know things can change very quickly, but if we dip into a moderate La Nina this winter then next season could be another like this season, with ENSO trending from weak La Nina back to Neutral.
Well it will be 2012 next year after all.Lol(please don't shoot me)
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17850
Quoting washingtonian115:
Okay just got back from the funeral very early this morning.And I see we went through both Franklin and now Gert.I still think we can get a hurricane this month and in September.Heck even in October.And remember that in neutral years hurricanes have even been known to form in November.I still think 93L may need to be watched even though models have completly dropped it.Models have not been doing so good this year....so I'm not counting out anything just yet...

The NAM has been doing okay with smaller systems.
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Okay just got back from the funeral very early this morning.And I see we went through both Franklin and now Gert.I still think we can get a hurricane this month and in September.Heck even in October.And remember that in neutral years hurricanes have even been known to form in November.I still think 93L may need to be watched even though models have completly dropped it.Models have not been doing so good this year....so I'm not counting out anything just yet...
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17850
Most, if not all, of Texas is just baking in the drought.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
What the heck is this?


One of the many ex-frontal boundary low pressure swirls that try to become tropical this year...but it looks much less impressive when you zoom out:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/vis-l.jpg

This low came from the frontal boundary that Franklin was absorbed into yesterday

Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 539 Comments: 3712
Quoting JRRP:


I know things can change very quickly, but if we dip into a moderate La Nina this winter then next season could be another like this season, with ENSO trending from weak La Nina back to Neutral.
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I'm pretty sure 7 TSs without a single hurricane is a record. Every storm this year seems to have been contending with mid-level dry air - what causes that? As I understand it it isn't SAL.
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Quoting Neapolitan:

Political or religious talk is bad enough; bigoted and hateful talk is several steps worse.


Unfortunately that is what most of the political and religious talk ends up being once a discussion begins on those topics
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First thing, GERT'S A CANNIBLE EATING OTHER TROPICAL SYSTEMS, second storms firing off n the northern gulf, jaws music is playin, third no politics cuz then ill get involved and eventually banned
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Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Which one is this? lol

I don't know LOL
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Quoting AllStar17:

Kewl Grafix LOL
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
359. deaddude21 6:31 PM GMT on August 14, 2011

This is not a political or religious blog, get that crap out of here.


Political or religious talk is bad enough; bigoted and hateful talk is several steps worse.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
What the heck is this?


Which one is this? lol
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Quoting 7544:
wow another fish strom why are these things forming in the middle of no mans land kinda interesting tho u usually see this at gthe end of of the season where they are being born now .its going backwards this year


???

Last I checked Bermuda is a landmass. Oh wait it didnt hit YOU so its a fish?

*rolls eyes*
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359. deaddude21 6:31 PM GMT on August 14, 2011

This is not a political or religious blog, get that crap out of here.

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Another aspect of how low is thw ACE so dar in the Atlantic 2011 season is if this pattern continues, we might end up having had 20 named storms, but a total ACE of 30-40.
For comparison only, the year with the highest ACE out of 7 storms was 1960 (7/4/2) bringing it to 88 units.
On the other hand 1970 had 10 named storms (10/5/2) which raised the season total to only 34. Time will tell how the Atlantic will end up on the ACE numbers.

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if are new name storm hits Bermuda dead on it wont be a fish lol
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
Quoting pottery:

The problem with 93 is that there is dry air west of it for a thousand miles.......

I dont see how it can become anything with those conditions.
But it could bring some heavy showers here, if it stays connected to the ITCZ.


This WV loop shows 93L holding its own right now, pushing that slug of dry air to its west out of the way...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.h tml

The loop also shows a brown swirl just N of Puerto Rico...which is an upper low that made Gert/94-L struggle earlier...which would suggest southerly shearing for 93L once it gets into the Caribbean. However....the upper-level wind vectors (HDW-H check box) show some anticyclonicity (upper ridging) over the east Caribbean and that upper low is also weakening. If 93L keeps this up (pushes out dry air and thrives under east Caribbean upper ridging), 93L could put on a show...we'll see...
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 539 Comments: 3712
Hi everyone, it looks like ex-93L broad center is moving in a W-WNW motion. Almost at the 15 deg mark, just my opinion at this time.
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What the heck is this?
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Quoting Cotillion:


Nea, you know I'm a fan, but sorry, that's not a good post.

Simply 1997 had eight storms, 2011 so far only has seven. Yes, they had an unnamed subtropical storm, but it's a storm nonetheless. You wouldn't discount the 'Perfect Storm' just because it didn't have a name, would you?

2005 is noted for some of its short lived storms. You could easily say that Emily had triple what 2011 does alone or that Epsilon itself has more and change to all of this year's seven storms in terms of ACE.

Now, I still believe this will be at least the same average and probably above average compared to the 1995-present era and its ACE will likely rocket as soon as the CV season starts in earnest.

Not a good post? Because I went with the NHC and didn't include an unnamed subtropical storm, my post is bad?

Really?

My point was--and I stand by it--that many here (and elsewhere) talk of the weakness of this year or that year in comparison to the current year, and 2005--being the Big Kahuna of all seasons--is invoked more than any other. But given that the individual ACE of this year's 'A' though 'D' storms would all be in the middle of the 2005 pack ACE-wise, 2011 isn't really so weak after all, now is it?
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personally i see comuter models as fairly unreliable for one reason, all they do is plug in the numbers, even though they are better at it when we do the same things ourselves we can find more errors in our process and therefore correct them while computers cant
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396. 7544
wow another fish strom why are these things forming in the middle of no mans land kinda interesting tho u usually see this at gthe end of of the season where they are being born now .its going backwards this year
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395. JRRP
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Ex-93L still out there:
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Baha, a +1 just for saying vituperative. ;)

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Quoting deaddude21:
the politically correct leftists that come in with the stupid .
Whoa... some loaded and vituperative language there.... just now understanding why ur posts are hidden in [show bad]... FYI, this is not politically correct. It's GEOGRAPHICALLY correct. Lots of bloggers on here LITERALLY do not live in the US. You r young, and can change foolish ideas. Work on it.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Mind u, we thought that about a couple waves before.... lol.... but I gotta agree with you about 93L.... seems just the sneaky sort of wave to lie low when conditions are negative, then take massive advantage of rapidly improving conditions. However, we shall see sometime between now and Wed what takes place w/ it.
It looks to be very interesting.
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They're pretty close to each other...
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Quoting deaddude21:

I'm sure it'll be back. i HIGHLY doubt it will become anything like Felix in the Eastern Caribbean, but it's not going to just dissipate. It's a fighter...sort of like the 94L that eventually became Gustav in 2008.

OK
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Quoting scott39:
ex93L has latent heat energy with a cyclonic turning. When it gets in the Caribbean, it will be moving through increasing TCHP....which will create heat energy and moisture for it. Conditions are only going to get better with time.




yup thats why we need too watch it
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
Quoting wxgeek723:


One of the most active July's? Yes three named storms form, so statiscally it was pretty active. However in terms of ACE, this season is certainly not in the league of Julys like 1933, 1996, 2005, and 2008. 1997 also had a very active July but do you know what happened after that? The season fell apart. I'm just tired of the people on here constantly trying to DESTROY those that try and say "Maybe 2011 won't be a horrific season". It very well may be, but it very well couldn't be.
Only people I have a problem with are the ones who can't use that simple word I highlighted. And if you look at the rest of the blog, you'll see that's really what's happening. Pple like Cotillion with reasoned arguments are not getting DESTROYED as you put it.

Frankly, I think my season forecast was 15 or 16 named storms, and I haven't changed my thinking on that. I'm not sold on the high number season, or even the high ACE season. But I am willing to express this as an opinion and provide support for my view.

And again, "active" doesn't equate "horrific", which is the other point we keep trying to make. 1929 was a horrific year for the Bahamas. But we were the only ones impacted by the season's only major storm. For the rest of the ATL, 1929 was a low-activity,low-impact season.

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ex93L has latent heat energy with a cyclonic turning. When it gets in the Caribbean, it will be moving through increasing TCHP....which will create heat energy and moisture for it. Conditions are only going to get better with time.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Strictly in terms of named storms, 2011 has now equaled 1997's total output.

To those comparing this season's "anemic" ACE with those of other years, here are some facts to put things into perspective: this year's Arlene, Emily, Cindy and Don each accumulated more ACE than 10 of 2005's 28 storms did, and this year's TS Bret accumulated more ACE than 12 of that year's storms.

FYI.


Nea, you know I'm a fan, but sorry, that's not a good post.

Simply 1997 had eight storms, 2011 so far only has seven. Yes, they had an unnamed subtropical storm, but it's a storm nonetheless. You wouldn't discount the 'Perfect Storm' just because it didn't have a name, would you?

2005 is noted for some of its short lived storms. You could easily say that Emily had triple what 2011 does alone or that Epsilon itself has more and change to all of this year's seven storms in terms of ACE.

Now, I still believe this will be at least the same average and probably above average compared to the 1995-present era and its ACE will likely rocket as soon as the CV season starts in earnest.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Not trying to be rude but I think he was asking YOUR opinion on 93L not the models.
Sorry Teddy, I see he actually did say what do the models show.
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personally I said it before and I'll say it again, ex93L is probably going the big player a few days from now!Sometime if you follow models too much you'll end up on the wrong side of the road or over the fence....just saying....
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Quoting deaddude21:
93L is not attached to the ITCZ.

If anything, it has a better chance of being another Felix (intensity and early track wise) than nothing ever.

You sure 'bout that?
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Quoting pottery:

The problem with 93 is that there is dry air west of it for a thousand miles.......

I dont see how it can become anything with those conditions.
But it could bring some heavy showers here, if it stays connected to the ITCZ.


MJO will likely play a role on 93L future.Once 93L reaches 55W-60W things should get interesting.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Strictly in terms of named storms, 2011 has now equaled 1997's total output.

To those comparing this season's "anemic" ACE with those of other years, here are some facts to put things into perspective: this year's Arlene, Emily, Cindy and Don each accumulated more ACE than 10 of 2005's 28 storms did, and this year's TS Bret accumulated more ACE than 12 of that year's storms.

FYI.
On the other hand, 18 of 2005's 28 storms accumulated more ACE than this year's Arlene, Emily, Cindy and Don. And 16 of 2005's storms accumulated more ACE than this year's Bret.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


I do not think 92L has a closed low, as there is little to no west winds from obs. At this time, no models develop 93L either.
Not trying to be rude but I think he was asking YOUR opinion on 93L not the models.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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