Tropical Depression Seven forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:25 PM GMT on August 14, 2011

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The latest in our unusual number of weak tropical cyclones this season, Tropical Depression Seven, has formed to the southeast of Bermuda. Unless you live in Bermuda, TD 7 is not going to be a concern. Radar out of Bermuda shows an area of rain on the northern side of TD 7 beginning to approach the island, and rain from the storm will likely affect the island tonight and on Monday. TD 7 is not well-organized, and has only limited heavy thunderstorms, as seen on visible satellite images. While wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, dry air surrounds TD 7, and is keeping the storm from intensifying. None of the computer models foresee that TD 7 will ever become more than a weak tropical storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of TD 7.

92L
TD 7 isn't the only system Bermuda needs to watch, Invest 92L is a day behind it, and will follow a path very similar to TD 7's. The disturbance will pass close to Bermuda on Tuesday, bringing the island a second round of tropical rains. However, Invest 92L is very disorganized, as seen on recent visible satellite loops. Dry air and close proximity to TD 7 will likely keep 92L from showing significant development over the next two days, with NHC giving the system just a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa we've been tracking over the past few days, Invest 93L, has fallen apart and is no longer a threat to develop. This system will need to be watched once it enters the Caribbean later this week, though. None of the reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone formation predict development of this system or any new disturbances over the coming week.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting ncstorm:


The Low associated with the front is still sitting over land..click on NCEP fronts..

Link


but with that amount of moisture in the gulf thaat would be a nice storm
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Quoting Neapolitan:

Well, Arctic Sea ice, as the name implies, sits atop the water, so its melting would change sea levels only negligibly, of course...


Yes, it's the ice that's currently on land that could cause sea level problems. Course, if ice on the water is melting, one can expect the ice on land to follow suit.
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In other news, parts of the northeast--namely New York City and evirons--are having their rainiest day ever. Lido Beach (Nassau County) has seen 10.2" today; JFK 7.02"; La Guardia 5.19"; Sheepshead Bay 6.53". And there's still much more to come.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Kina looks like the ECMWF splits off some energy from it?



hopefully it can graze the la coast give us some rain and hit tx and bus the drout
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Quoting ohcanada55:
TS Gert may be grazing eastern Newfoundland.
Source: Canadian Weathernetwork.


That's surely a pun? (Gertrude is a popular name for a cow.)
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OH WOW! I just got thundered on and everything!!! LOL
Soory been awhile. :)

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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Yes:


The Low associated with the front is still sitting over land..click on NCEP fronts..

Link
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Quoting weatherh98:


My house shouldve been underwater already...

Well, Arctic Sea ice, as the name implies, sits atop the water, so its melting would change sea levels only negligibly, of course...
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Yes:


Thats the stuff im talkin bout right there
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TS Gert may be grazing eastern Newfoundland.
Source: Canadian Weathernetwork.
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Quoting ncstorm:


we have been having bad storms I believe since Thursday here as well from our frontal boundaries..


Its extra wierd cuz im a few miles from the water and no rain but u go into the gulf and

BBBOOOOOOMMMM
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Quoting weatherh98:


Does anyone not note that there is a front with giant thunderstorms forming in a boiling hot gulf of mexico, like TROPICAL downpours a lot of rain dont say i didnt warn ya


Kina looks like the ECMWF splits off some energy from it?

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461. BA
we are here in the season



data from NHC
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Quoting weatherh98:


Does anyone not note that there is a front with giant thunderstorms forming in a boiling hot gulf of mexico, like TROPICAL downpours a lot of rain dont say i didnt warn ya

Yes:
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Quoting weatherh98:


yea but its already poppin big storms down there


we have been having bad storms I believe since Thursday here as well from our frontal boundaries..
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Quoting ncstorm:


its still sitting over land but tomorrow it should make it to the coast..



yea but its already poppin big storms down there
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Quoting Neapolitan:

No cherry-picking, Cot; I merely noted that, weak as this year's storms have been, they've been stronger than a large percentage of 2005's so far as ACE is concerned. I wasn't attempting to downplay 2005; far from it. I'm just letting folks know that even monsters seasons like 2005 saw many storms just as weak as--or weaker than--those we've seen so far in 2011. That's all.


Okay, fair enough. :)
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Quoting Neapolitan:
A quick update to Dr. Masters' blog entry from Thursday: Arctic Sea ice melting has picked up the pace in the past several days, just as Jeff predicted. In fact, yesterday's loss of 127,187 square kilometers was the sixth greatest one-day loss this season (the top five were in the first two weeks of July). In the past 10 days alone, 816,406 square kilometers (315,216 square miles) of Arctic Sea ice have disappeared. That's an area the size of Texas and Wisconsin combined.

FWIW, from 2002 through 2010, ice extent has only failed to drop below 6 million square kilometers once (in 2003). The average date for breaking the 6 million line for the remaining years has been August 19th. This year that line was crossed on the 10th--and the pace is picking up.


My house shouldve been underwater already...
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Quoting weatherh98:


Does anyone not note that there is a front with giant thunderstorms forming in a boiling hot gulf of mexico, like TROPICAL downpours a lot of rain dont say i didnt warn ya


its still sitting over land but tomorrow it should make it to the coast..

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Quoting ackee:
when EX 93L reach 60 west if still look weak will give up dont think woild make it into the westrn carrb might just head for central America



well see
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114719
12z ECMWF does not show the hurricane that the 00z run had,wow and incredible that in 12 hours it all dissapears.

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A quick update to Dr. Masters' blog entry from Thursday: Arctic Sea ice melting has picked up the pace in the past several days, just as Jeff predicted. In fact, yesterday's loss of 127,187 square kilometers was the sixth greatest one-day loss this season (the top five were in the first two weeks of July). In the past 10 days alone, 816,406 square kilometers (315,216 square miles) of Arctic Sea ice have disappeared. That's an area the size of Texas and Wisconsin combined.

FWIW, from 2002 through 2010, ice extent has only failed to drop below 6 million square kilometers once (in 2003). The average date for breaking the 6 million line for the remaining years has been August 19th. This year that line was crossed on the 10th--and the pace is picking up.
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Gert has been absorbing 92L since yesterday when the two systems were invests. System north of Bermuda could become a tropical depression by tomorrow if convection can become sustained over the center of circulaion, obvious low level closed circulation.
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Quoting ncstorm:


what worries me about these frontal boundaries is that the models have not picked up these storms that develop from these..there is another frontal boundary sitting off NC again today


Does anyone not note that there is a front with giant thunderstorms forming in a boiling hot gulf of mexico, like TROPICAL downpours a lot of rain dont say i didnt warn ya
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449. SLU
History of GERT









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Quoting JLPR2:
Looks like 92L is becoming a feeder band of Gert.

I bet Franklin dared her to do it XD
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447. ackee
Quoting Tazmanian:



yup we still have ex 93L too watch i will not give up on it
when EX 93L reach 60 west if still look weak will give up dont think woild make it into the westrn carrb might just head for central America
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:
We've had a lot of frontal boundary drama this year:

Big front stalls out in mid-July over open Atlantic...Bret and Cindy both develop from this front

Emily's remnant are finally done and over with when absorbed by a central Atlantic front...yet the southern end of this same front produces 94-L and eventually Gert....

Franklin formed from a frontal boundary decay off the SE US coast...and then gets absorbed by another frontal boundary across the N Atlantic. This same N Atlantic frontal boundary's west end decays and produces this very small but interesting spectacle N of Bermuda today....


what worries me about these frontal boundaries is that the models have not picked up these storms that develop from these..there is another frontal boundary sitting off NC again today
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Quoting NICycloneChaser:


92L is going to get killed, methinks.

Emily has trained her daughter well...


Id eat 92l too it looks pretty yummy to me like a fluffy version of white choc
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Quoting Cotillion:


Notwithstanding the fact that 2005 is a difficult season to make any concrete comparisons with alone as you are well aware of, but also because it was overly subjective as I stated in my second point. When you present stats like that, they can be twisted in any way you want.

Even if you wanted to pick seven tropical storms from 2005, you could pick Franklin, Zeta, Delta, Harvey, Arlene, Gamma and Tammy. You get an ACE just short of 30, so not far off triple this season. You can do it the same way to refute the point. Cherry picking just doesn't prove anything.

Of course, in a very roundabout way, I can see what you're trying to say. More the method I question.

No cherry-picking, Cot; I merely noted that, weak as this year's storms have been, they've been stronger than a large percentage of 2005's so far as ACE is concerned. I wasn't attempting to downplay 2005; far from it. I'm just letting folks know that even monsters seasons like 2005 saw many storms just as weak as--or weaker than--those we've seen so far in 2011. That's all.
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Quoting NICycloneChaser:


92L is going to get killed, methinks.

Emily has trained her daughter well...



yup we still have ex 93L too watch i will not give up on it
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114719
Quoting JLPR2:
Looks like 92L is becoming a feeder band of Gert.


Cannibal
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Quoting weatherh98:


haha it looks like it too, the most impolite storm ever except for jfv

lol So true.
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Quoting JLPR2:
Looks like 92L is becoming a feeder band of Gert.


92L is going to get killed, methinks.

Emily has trained her daughter well...
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Earlier today, she gave me the finger.


haha it looks like it too, the most impolite storm ever except for jfv
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Quoting MysteryMeat:


I've been reading this since 2005 and was F5ing every 10 seconds the night Wilma bombed out. I think that means I've read the blog very much.

The point is, people who say things like that clearly are trolling, even if they don't act like the traditional internet troll. It'd be like if I went to a Dallas Cowboys forum the day they lose their season opener and say "well, it's a bust season, all of Tony Romo's passes will recurve, might as well pack it up and wait till next year."

If you really think people are going to give up on the hurricane season because someone posts that it's over, well, that's just not very likely. If they're willing to believe xXxJuStInBiEbEr4PrEz420xXx over Jeff Masters, then no diatribe is going to make a smidge of a difference -- that boat has long since sailed into the North Atlantic graveyard.
Why ya gotta be a romo hater?
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437. SLU
Quoting JLPR2:
Looks like 92L is becoming a feeder band of Gert.


Gert is continuing to absorb 92L. A trend I noted from since this morning.
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the gulf must be watched see the storm blowup
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Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Record La Nina??? LOL
Maybe.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16409
434. SLU
Interesting low level cloud swirl at 13n 51w. And the NHC is wrongfully ignoring the system north of Bermuda. It looks like an unnumbered tropical depression which didn't even get a yellow circle.
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433. JLPR2
Looks like 92L is becoming a feeder band of Gert.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8499
Quoting weatherh98:


Its lookin better organized no open center maybe some slight strengthening before bermuda and after that it will weaken, good tracking storm, like all storms this year

Earlier today, she gave me the finger.
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431. ackee
I notice that this seasons seem to be the year of small storms would that be some sort of record?
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
GERT
is kinda small.


Just like most of the storms this year....Gert also looking more photogenic with each new satellite frame
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 439 Comments: 3605
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
GERT
is kinda small.


Its lookin better organized no open center maybe some slight strengthening before bermuda and after that it will weaken, good tracking storm, like all storms this year
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Quoting Neapolitan:

Not a good post? Because I went with the NHC and didn't include an unnamed subtropical storm, my post is bad?

Really?

My point was--and I stand by it--that many here (and elsewhere) talk of the weakness of this year or that year in comparison to the current year, and 2005--being the Big Kahuna of all seasons--is invoked more than any other. But given that the individual ACE of this year's 'A' though 'D' storms would all be in the middle of the 2005 pack ACE-wise, 2011 isn't really so weak after all, now is it?


Notwithstanding the fact that 2005 is a difficult season to make any concrete comparisons with alone as you are well aware of, but also because it was overly subjective as I stated in my second point. When you present stats like that, they can be twisted in any way you want.

Even if you wanted to pick seven tropical storms from 2005, you could pick Franklin, Zeta, Delta, Harvey, Arlene, Gamma and Tammy. You get an ACE just short of 30, so not far off triple this season. You can do it the same way to refute the point. Cherry picking just doesn't prove anything.

Of course, in a very roundabout way, I can see what you're trying to say. More the method I question.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

The NAM has been doing okay with smaller systems.
I have to give NAM a litle credit.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16409
Quoting washingtonian115:
Well it will be 2012 next year after all.Lol(please don't shoot me)


Record La Nina??? LOL
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Seems Levi is having internet issues but here is an excerpt from his Tropical Tidbits page on FB.

Former 93L looks more alive than yesterday, and is a clear feature headed for the Caribbean. Models have dropped it, but it may still have to be monitored for the reasons outlined yesterday.


He goes on to say that development in the next 48 hours is 0% in his opinion but may be a player after that.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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