Tropical Depression Seven forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:25 PM GMT on August 14, 2011

Share this Blog
14
+

The latest in our unusual number of weak tropical cyclones this season, Tropical Depression Seven, has formed to the southeast of Bermuda. Unless you live in Bermuda, TD 7 is not going to be a concern. Radar out of Bermuda shows an area of rain on the northern side of TD 7 beginning to approach the island, and rain from the storm will likely affect the island tonight and on Monday. TD 7 is not well-organized, and has only limited heavy thunderstorms, as seen on visible satellite images. While wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, dry air surrounds TD 7, and is keeping the storm from intensifying. None of the computer models foresee that TD 7 will ever become more than a weak tropical storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of TD 7.

92L
TD 7 isn't the only system Bermuda needs to watch, Invest 92L is a day behind it, and will follow a path very similar to TD 7's. The disturbance will pass close to Bermuda on Tuesday, bringing the island a second round of tropical rains. However, Invest 92L is very disorganized, as seen on recent visible satellite loops. Dry air and close proximity to TD 7 will likely keep 92L from showing significant development over the next two days, with NHC giving the system just a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa we've been tracking over the past few days, Invest 93L, has fallen apart and is no longer a threat to develop. This system will need to be watched once it enters the Caribbean later this week, though. None of the reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone formation predict development of this system or any new disturbances over the coming week.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 525 - 475

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40Blog Index

SMH.I've been reading across the internet lately on peoples thoughts about this season.And when you look down in the comments section it seems that some people want is a storm to hit the U.S.What's up with that?.I thought that by the storms missing the U.S and staying weak that that's a good thing.So whats the problem.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17613
Quoting BahaHurican:
Not to mention the item draped along the NE GOM coast.... if globals are not picking up on them, does that mean we have some potential later on for unexpected formations in the Gulf???? An interesting thought, if nothing else.


we just may..we will find out tomorrow when that Low hits the water..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
Not to mention the item draped along the NE GOM coast.... if globals are not picking up on them, does that mean we have some potential later on for unexpected formations in the Gulf???? An interesting thought, if nothing else.


if a low pressure and thunderstorms with the moisture like it is in the gulf something WILL form
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If there has to be active tropical sesaons, this is the way to do it: Lots of little "flies" forming and moving along their own paths, nothing too destructive.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
nice to have these showers sure is hot in between them though no complants here injoy.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:



yup


It looks like the circulation is on the back side of those storms that popped up today, more seem to be on the way if you look closely at the southwest quadrant.

Link

EDIT:

I'd also like the say that the wave is kicking up some development a reasonable distance to the south of the circulation we're seeing so I'm pretty sure this isn't a totally dead system...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ncstorm:


what worries me about these frontal boundaries is that the models have not picked up these storms that develop from these..there is another frontal boundary sitting off NC again today
Not to mention the item draped along the NE GOM coast.... if globals are not picking up on them, does that mean we have some potential later on for unexpected formations in the Gulf???? An interesting thought, if nothing else.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BA:
12Z euro showing some homebrew mischief in the gom



Can you provide a link to the 12euro animation or advise a timeframe,strength,and direction of travel?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Is Gert starting to turn N/NNE?

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


I was wondering if that was why the ECMWF ran it and the low behind it strait into CA. Guess not though. Best I can figure is a strong high right above them? Oh well. Guess that's why nobody pay me for this stuff. lol


me eithier..LOL..I was assuming it wasnt developing because it was still embedded in the ITCZ but since that shows its not, we should start to see development and possibly a more westward track because of Azore High building south westward..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormpetrol:


I would say definitely a circulation in the area of ex93L according to these wind observations.



yup
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


My apologies, I completely misunderstood that lol


LOL NP. Happens to me all the time. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Bermuda web cam


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Another aspect of how low is thw ACE so far in the Atlantic 2011 season is if this pattern continues, we might end up having had 20 named storms, but a total ACE of 30-40.
For comparison only, the year with the highest ACE out of 7 storms was 1960 (7/4/2) bringing it to 88 units.
On the other hand 1970 had 10 named storms (10/5/2) which raised the season total to only 34. Time will tell how the Atlantic will end up on the ACE numbers.

There was some interesting speculation yesterday about the season going to a record 16 tropical storms, with no hurricanes [I can't imagine the circumstances that would make such a season possible.... lol]. So I guess ACE in a season like that would be around 30....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BBL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
510. BA
12Z euro showing some homebrew mischief in the gom

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Hey MH09, at what direction do you think Gert moving? Seems to be moving N-NNW.
EDIT: Never mind, post #503 answered it. lol


the straight line projection just popped up u have your answer
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ncstorm:
it looks like ex93L isnt embedded in the ITCZ anymore



I was wondering if that was why the ECMWF ran it and the low behind it strait into CA. Guess not though. Best I can figure is a strong high right above them? Oh well. Guess that's why nobody pay me for this stuff. lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR2:
Looks like 92L is becoming a feeder band of Gert.
Ah... so that's what's going to happen... was wondering which would absorb the other.... IMO the slight Wward movement of "Gert" earlier was due to this interaction, as it went west while 92L got hooked on the eastern side and started heading north....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


My apologies, I completely misunderstood that lol




i think they may wait in tell it comes in too the Caribbean
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aspectre:
477 weatherh98 "my house still oughta be underwater"

Are your gills getting too dry? Use a swamp-cooler instead of an air-conditioner.


my gills feel like texas i need a swamp cooler, or i can walk down the road to the swamp
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


I would say definitely a circulation in the area of ex93L according to these wind observations.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TS.Gert's_6pmGMT_ATCF : Starting 13August_6pmGMT and ending 14August_6pmGMT

The northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection

TropicalStormGert's travel-speed was 6.2mph(9.9k/h) on a heading of 340.6degrees(NNW)
Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12pmGMT then 6pmGMT :
TS.Gert was headed toward passage over BermudaInternationalAirport 1day20hours from now
(though I wouldn't count on TS.Gert to continue moving that slowly)
Copy&paste 27.4n60.5w, 27.7n61.4w-28.0n62.2w, 28.0n62.2w-28.1n62.9w, 28.1n62.9w-28.6n63.1w, bda, meo, 28.1n62.9w-32.364n64.67w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

TS.Gert's_6pmGMT_ATCF & 92L's_6pmGMT_ATCF :
Starting 13August_6pmGMT and ending 14August_6pmGMT

The northernmost line-segments and red dot represent TS.Gert's path,
and the southernmost grouping of red dots represents 92L's path.

Copy&paste 27.4n60.5w, 27.7n61.4w-28.0n62.2w, 28.0n62.2w-28.1n62.9w, 28.1n62.9w-28.6n63.1w, iga, bda, 20.3n54.4w, 21.6n56.6w, 22.3n58.0w, 22.8n59.0w, 23.9n60.0w into the GreatCircleMapper to start your own map to play with

The previous mapping (for 14August_12pmGMT)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I'm surprised the NHC isn't taking any interest in the low pressure system north of Bermuda. Seems worthy of at least a yellow circle, lol.

Hey MH09, at what direction do you think Gert moving? Seems to be moving N-NNW.
EDIT: Never mind, post #503 answered it. lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:



me too by the 93L has made a little of a come back from last nic


I agree, they may need to mention it in the next TWO maybe 10%.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


I know. It was on that ECMWF pic I posted.


My apologies, I completely misunderstood that lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
477 weatherh98 "my house still oughta be underwater"

Are your gills getting too dry? Use a swamp-cooler instead of an air-conditioner.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
497. BA
no need to wish storms into the GOM this late in the season (due to the potentially harmful results), they are not needed to solve the drought here in Texas...the rain will come with fronts as it always does
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
it looks like ex93L isnt embedded in the ITCZ anymore

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


It's not, 93L ain't anywhere near the Caribbean just yet.


I know. It was on that ECMWF pic I posted.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I'm surprised the NHC isn't taking any interest in the low pressure system north of Bermuda. Seems worthy of at least a yellow circle, lol.



me too by the 93L has made a little of a come back from last nic
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I'm surprised the NHC isn't taking any interest in the low pressure system north of Bermuda. Seems worthy of at least a yellow circle, lol.


I was thinking 20 by two
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


I think it's 93l.


That or the one behind it proly 93
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Has Gert been officially named?


Yes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
And thank you, both weathers. *G*
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Starting to wonder if we could see a 2007 repeat.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


I think it's 93l.


It's not, 93L ain't anywhere near the Caribbean just yet.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
<>img src="290303 1811223653990 1641975413 1331284 2737926">
waterspout i saw this morning while i was fishing your looking wsw out into the gom here in sarasota
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
What's that in the mid-carribean.


I think it's 93l.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks, Taz. I went and looked on here, but didn't see it. Up to G already and it's only mid August.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm surprised the NHC isn't taking any interest in the low pressure system north of Bermuda. Seems worthy of at least a yellow circle, lol.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Has Gert been officially named?

Yup.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Has Gert been officially named?


since the 2 pm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Has Gert been officially named?



yes
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Has Gert been officially named?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Well it looks like it does just that. Well without the drought buster. :)

It also develops lows out of 93l and the one behind it and runs them both into Central America. Strange.


odd because of the weekness in the gulf
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Kina looks like the ECMWF splits off some energy from it?

What's that in the mid-carribean.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17613
just popped back on...and all i can say is that the atlantic is acting weird as all get out...franklin is gone...gert is here...numbers are appearing and disappearing like revolving doors...it is actually a bit unsettling in a way...almost as though it is a false sense of security when they disappear like that knowing in the back of my mind that the MJO is grabbing hold and all...waiting for the other shoe to drop at this point...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Yes, it's the ice that's currently on land that could cause sea level problems. Course, if ice on the water is melting, one can expect the ice on land to follow suit.


my house still oughta be underwater
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherh98:


hopefully it can graze the la coast give us some rain and hit tx and bus the drout


Well it looks like it does just that. Well without the drought buster. :)

It also develops lows out of 93l and the one behind it and runs them both into Central America. Strange.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ncstorm:


The Low associated with the front is still sitting over land..click on NCEP fronts..

Link


but with that amount of moisture in the gulf thaat would be a nice storm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 525 - 475

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Light Rain
50 °F
Light Rain Mist