Tropical Depression Seven forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:25 PM GMT on August 14, 2011

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The latest in our unusual number of weak tropical cyclones this season, Tropical Depression Seven, has formed to the southeast of Bermuda. Unless you live in Bermuda, TD 7 is not going to be a concern. Radar out of Bermuda shows an area of rain on the northern side of TD 7 beginning to approach the island, and rain from the storm will likely affect the island tonight and on Monday. TD 7 is not well-organized, and has only limited heavy thunderstorms, as seen on visible satellite images. While wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, dry air surrounds TD 7, and is keeping the storm from intensifying. None of the computer models foresee that TD 7 will ever become more than a weak tropical storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of TD 7.

92L
TD 7 isn't the only system Bermuda needs to watch, Invest 92L is a day behind it, and will follow a path very similar to TD 7's. The disturbance will pass close to Bermuda on Tuesday, bringing the island a second round of tropical rains. However, Invest 92L is very disorganized, as seen on recent visible satellite loops. Dry air and close proximity to TD 7 will likely keep 92L from showing significant development over the next two days, with NHC giving the system just a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa we've been tracking over the past few days, Invest 93L, has fallen apart and is no longer a threat to develop. This system will need to be watched once it enters the Caribbean later this week, though. None of the reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone formation predict development of this system or any new disturbances over the coming week.

Jeff Masters

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1006.9 mb
(~ 29.73 inHg)
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Quoting Tazmanian:
where is 36N 63W at some one post a photo or some in
taz its directly North of bermuda
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
its north of bermuda



oh cool
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
.
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Quoting Tazmanian:




omg where is 96L at
its north of bermuda
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Quoting washingtonian115:
SMH.I've been reading across the internet lately on peoples thoughts about this season.And when you look down in the comments section it seems that some people want is a storm to hit the U.S.What's up with that?.I thought that by the storms missing the U.S and staying weak that that's a good thing.So whats the problem.


People who have never had to live in the aftermath of a bad storm. You can survive a hurricane, you evacuate. It's the aftermath that just about kills you, the clean-up. No electricity in the deep south in August/Sept. Dealing with the life draining insurance companies.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
And another one

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al962011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201108142020
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 96, 2011, DB, O, 2011081418, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL962011
AL, 96, 2011081418, , BEST, 0, 367N, 638W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
That's the same area we were looking at earlier, at the end of the trough, right?

All this added activity all over the place seems to suggest we're moving out of that "stable air" period we were in...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22734
Quoting Neapolitan:
And another one

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al962011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201108142020
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 96, 2011, DB, O, 2011081418, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL962011
AL, 96, 2011081418, , BEST, 0, 367N, 638W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,




omg where is 96L at
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Quoting Thrawst:
Yup. GIANT rain drops falling right now. A little cooler air aloft and this would be hail .. :(
Now why would we get hail here in the middle of summer.... lol I'm enjoying the little rain... looks like it may be done for now.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22734
ex93L has an upper level anticyclone over it. Expect developement in the next 72 hours. IMO
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And another one

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al962011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201108142020
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 96, 2011, DB, O, 2011081418, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL962011
AL, 96, 2011081418, , BEST, 0, 367N, 638W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
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:)


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We have Gert in the Atlantic. But will she be as interesting as Gallopin' Gertie?

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Quoting Tazmanian:
they this found 1007mb in are new TS if any one cares lol


1007.0 mb
(~ 29.74 inHg


They will up the winds
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Yup. GIANT rain drops falling right now. A little cooler air aloft and this would be hail .. :(
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oh just got real quiet here for some resone ha first time my AC unit kicked off by itself in weeks.
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This is apparently what bringin us the rain. And by the end of the week we TX/LA should be having a deep southerly flow. Kinda interesting with a low on the Yucatan.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
315 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2011

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO
THE NORTHEAST U.S. WHICH IS HELPING TO DIG THE EAST COAST UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FARTHER SOUTH. MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL
CENTERED OVER FAR WESTERN TEXAS. THESE TWO SYSTEMS ARE HELPING TO
STRENGTHEN NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING IN THIS
NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS...COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND A MOIST UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...HAS
ALLOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. WITH SOME
ENTRAINED DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...AND INDICES FROM UPPER AIR
SOUNDING FAVORABLE FOR GUSTY DOWN-BURST WINDS AND OUTFLOW
DEVELOPMENT...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY
WHERE OUTFLOWS ARE COLLIDING...WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING THE MAIN ISSUES SO FAR. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
BEGIN TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.


A MORE MOIST AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS WAY BACK TO THE
REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
SHIFT SOME BACK TO THE WEST AND A DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP. THEREFORE...WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE
EASTERN ZONES ON THURSDAY...AND FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
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they this found 1007mb in are new TS if any one cares lol


1007.0 mb
(~ 29.74 inHg
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
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What has been perched over South Florida as of late? Areas have been picking up as much as three to four inches of rain each night.
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gerts suckin up 92ls vorticity and its stormss
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Quoting BA:


nice images..grlevel3?


Thanks dont know grlevel3 but thanks for putting that
time zone thing out their i always get them confused for some resone.

not only are we getting rain but this little front
dropped the high Temps about 10 deg. in just a couple
min. went from 98 f to 84 f with hum. from 89 to 54
niceee
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HPC has a low I can only assume is 93l moving across the Caribbean and over the Yucatan day 7. This oughta be interesting.

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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Sorry. It barely clipped me. It's all gone now. After flipping my surge protector thing and knocking my laptop off. Sigh. But hey it was a few drops so I'll take it. :)
LOL. Yea it's cloudy and the temp has dropped with a little breeze so i guess i'll take what i can get.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
SMH.I've been reading across the internet lately on peoples thoughts about this season.And when you look down in the comments section it seems that some people want is a storm to hit the U.S.What's up with that?.I thought that by the storms missing the U.S and staying weak that that's a good thing.So whats the problem?


a) Youth.
b) Impatience.
c) Trollism.
d) Boredom.
e) Insanity.

Or all of the above....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22734
Quoting BA:


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwf.html

something to help you with Z time:
http://img.skitch.com/20110812-pq2r6ycrmxh1qj5kct d89kxd4m.png


What's that big storm near PR at the end of the 240hr loop?
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Quoting whipster:


Yep just got a pop up shower in Nueces County/Corpus area...wonder if the high has shifted or is breaking down a bit...


Eastern US WV (NOAA)

Central US WV Composite (NOAA)

You can see the extent of the ridge on the water vapor satellite imagery and it looks like we're on the eastern limb of it.
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Quoting nofailsafe:


Oooh, I like those little showers heading towards Harris County... :)


Very nice thunderstorm at my house in The Woodlands. Hope it heads your way.
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watching ex 93L i noted that ex 93L has be come more round druning the day i all so think that this is where a new low will from under the new round ball
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Quoting nofailsafe:


It looks like the circulation is on the back side of those storms that popped up today, more seem to be on the way if you look closely at the southwest quadrant.

Link

EDIT:

I'd also like the say that the wave is kicking up some development a reasonable distance to the south of the circulation we're seeing so I'm pretty sure this isn't a totally dead system...
Never was... just didn't make sense to expect anything of it before about 45W... this year IS like 2005 it seems, in that a fair amount of the TC formation is going to happen in the "Zone".... i.e. favorable area between 45W and 60W.... of course, that's pretty much par for the course most seasons.... lol
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22734
Quoting nofailsafe:


Oooh, I like those little showers heading towards Harris County... :)


Yep just got a pop up shower in Nueces County/Corpus area...wonder if the high has shifted or is breaking down a bit...
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Quoting Matt74:
Typical. That's gonna miss me barely to the west!


Sorry. It barely clipped me. It's all gone now. After flipping my surge protector thing and knocking my laptop off. Sigh. But hey it was a few drops so I'll take it. :)
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all most look like a N easter back E
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Quoting weatherh98:


water will be costlier than oil in texas if they dont get rain thats wassup
But these people want strong storms.That's just not right.
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The drought is costing more than a tropical storm would...WAKE UP!


Quoting weatherh98:


water will be costlier than oil in texas if they dont get rain thats wassup
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Ah... thunderboomer.... plus rain.... and only about 1/2 hour late... lol
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22734
The first few storms of the 2003 atlantic hurricane season wasn't to strong also.Yes we had two hurricanes by then but they wern't very strong hurricanes.Only cat 1's.However that all changed came late August.Just like I suspect for this year..
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bbl
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Quoting blsealevel:
bet the ground soaks that up as fast as it lands



Oooh, I like those little showers heading towards Harris County... :)
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bet the ground soaks that up as fast as it lands

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Quoting washingtonian115:
And other land masses.
Quoting washingtonian115:
SMH.I've been reading across the internet lately on peoples thoughts about this season.And when you look down in the comments section it seems that some people want is a storm to hit the U.S.What's up with that?.I thought that by the storms missing the U.S and staying weak that that's a good thing.So whats the problem.


State Drought Monitor

This is probably a good chunk of the reason.
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533. BA
Quoting blsealevel:
nice to have these showers sure is hot in between them though no complants here injoy.





nice images..grlevel3?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
SMH.I've been reading across the internet lately on peoples thoughts about this season.And when you look down in the comments section it seems that some people want is a storm to hit the U.S.What's up with that?.I thought that by the storms missing the U.S and staying weak that that's a good thing.So whats the problem.


water will be costlier than oil in texas if they dont get rain thats wassup
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Quoting Neapolitan:
A quick update to Dr. Masters' blog entry from Thursday: Arctic Sea ice melting has picked up the pace in the past several days, just as Jeff predicted. In fact, yesterday's loss of 127,187 square kilometers was the sixth greatest one-day loss this season (the top five were in the first two weeks of July). In the past 10 days alone, 816,406 square kilometers (315,216 square miles) of Arctic Sea ice have disappeared. That's an area the size of Texas and Wisconsin combined.

FWIW, from 2002 through 2010, ice extent has only failed to drop below 6 million square kilometers once (in 2003). The average date for breaking the 6 million line for the remaining years has been August 19th. This year that line was crossed on the 10th--and the pace is picking up.
I was thinking the other day that the kinds of changes in wx patterns that have been influencing this ice melting MUST also be having an impact on TC formation. I just don't know enough about the entire global system to be able to figure out HOW.

BTW, we've just gone to overcast here, with thunder to the NW...



.... and rain...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22734
530. BA
Quoting BahaHurican:
Not to mention the item draped along the NE GOM coast.... if globals are not picking up on them, does that mean we have some potential later on for unexpected formations in the Gulf???? An interesting thought, if nothing else.


the euro picks up on it and develops something out of it
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Quoting washingtonian115:
SMH.I've been reading across the internet lately on peoples thoughts about this season.And when you look down in the comments section it seems that some people want is a storm to hit the U.S.What's up with that?.I thought that by the storms missing the U.S and staying weak that that's a good thing.So whats the problem.
And other land masses.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:
OH WOW! I just got thundered on and everything!!! LOL
Soory been awhile. :)

Typical. That's gonna miss me barely to the west!
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527. BA
Quoting BradentonBrew:


Can you provide a link to the 12euro animation or advise a timeframe,strength,and direction of travel?


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwf.html

something to help you with Z time:
http://img.skitch.com/20110812-pq2r6ycrmxh1qj5kct d89kxd4m.png
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Quoting nofailsafe:


It looks like the circulation is on the back side of those storms that popped up today, more seem to be on the way if you look closely at the southwest quadrant.

Link

EDIT:

I'd also like the say that the wave is kicking up some development a reasonable distance to the south of the circulation we're seeing so I'm pretty sure this isn't a totally dead system...





nop its not a dead storm
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
SMH.I've been reading across the internet lately on peoples thoughts about this season.And when you look down in the comments section it seems that some people want is a storm to hit the U.S.What's up with that?.I thought that by the storms missing the U.S and staying weak that that's a good thing.So whats the problem.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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