Tropical Depression Seven forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:25 PM GMT on August 14, 2011

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The latest in our unusual number of weak tropical cyclones this season, Tropical Depression Seven, has formed to the southeast of Bermuda. Unless you live in Bermuda, TD 7 is not going to be a concern. Radar out of Bermuda shows an area of rain on the northern side of TD 7 beginning to approach the island, and rain from the storm will likely affect the island tonight and on Monday. TD 7 is not well-organized, and has only limited heavy thunderstorms, as seen on visible satellite images. While wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, dry air surrounds TD 7, and is keeping the storm from intensifying. None of the computer models foresee that TD 7 will ever become more than a weak tropical storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of TD 7.

92L
TD 7 isn't the only system Bermuda needs to watch, Invest 92L is a day behind it, and will follow a path very similar to TD 7's. The disturbance will pass close to Bermuda on Tuesday, bringing the island a second round of tropical rains. However, Invest 92L is very disorganized, as seen on recent visible satellite loops. Dry air and close proximity to TD 7 will likely keep 92L from showing significant development over the next two days, with NHC giving the system just a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa we've been tracking over the past few days, Invest 93L, has fallen apart and is no longer a threat to develop. This system will need to be watched once it enters the Caribbean later this week, though. None of the reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone formation predict development of this system or any new disturbances over the coming week.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting washingaway:
The 18Z NAM - 84 hours out.





looks like it froms ex93L
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115453
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I just went back and must admit that was quite the post. Lol. You should screen shot that. 51 likes is like a blog record.

Btw, I agree thoroughly with all the points you made in that post.

Each season HAS to have a hurricane. Tropical systems are mother nature's form of transporting heat from the tropics towards the poles. Weak tropical cyclones aren't gonna cut it.
And with those sst and TCHP something has to use it.Or else something waaaaay woarse will happen to us.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17794
The 18Z NAM - 84 hours out.

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Looks like I'm not done yet...

The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
southeastern Jasper County in southeast Texas...
southwestern Newton County in southeast Texas...
this includes Deweyville...
Orange County in southeast Texas...
this includes... West Orange... Vidor... Orange... Mauriceville...
southwestern Calcasieu Parish in southwest Louisiana...
northwestern Cameron Parish in southwest Louisiana...

* until 430 PM CDT

* at 345 PM CDT... National Weather Service meteorologists detected a
line of severe thunderstorms... capable of producing damaging winds
in excess of 60 mph... from 6 miles west of Deweyville to 9 miles
northeast of Orange... moving south at 15 mph.

* Other locations in the warning include but are not limited to
gist... Weiss Bluff... Lakeview... Orangefield and Pine Forest

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

If you are caught outside... do not seek shelter under a tree.
Instead... head indoors away from windows.
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Quoting weatherh98:


It's getting eaten by gert





gert is moveing a way from 92L so it may not be has close has you may think it is
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115453

at least there's a chance
Member Since: July 31, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 891
Quoting deaddude21:
Wow, the US is likely to be spared landfalls yet another hurricane season. This will make 5 out of 6 years...during an extensively active portion of an already active period...amazing.

And yes, Fabian is the last serious Bermuda hit. People complaining that "it's not a fish storm, it might hit Bermuda" need to get a reality check. A fish/recurving OTS storm has about 1 in 1,000 chance of a serious impact on Bermuda. Fabian is to Bermuda as say, Iniki is to Hawaii, or Hurricane Juan is to Halifax. Those places just don't get seriously hit by formidable hurricanes very often.
I wouldn't be to fast to say the U.S is spared.It's not September yet.And the U.S can also get hit in October.Everything will be clear come 11/30/11.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17794
Quoting Tazmanian:
i think 92L will with stan a better ch once are TS move out of the way a little


It's getting eaten by gert
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
96L. If this becomes Harvey we'd be talking about another non-Hurricane, I don't think the blog can handle that.. I'd have to post more posts like post 201.
I just went back and must admit that was quite the post. Lol. You should screen shot that. 51 likes is like a blog record.

Btw, I agree thoroughly with all the points you made in that post.

Each season HAS to have a hurricane. Tropical systems are mother nature's form of transporting heat from the tropics towards the poles. Weak tropical cyclones aren't gonna cut it.
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Quoting stormpetrol:
ex93L has a large circulation and growing, wouldn't be surprised if it is soon reactivated!



SW Caribbean looking interesting too.
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i think 92L will with stan a better ch once are TS move out of the way a little
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115453
Quoting Stats56:


Very nice thunderstorm at my house in The Woodlands. Hope it heads your way.


Well, they just crossed into the beltway and forming a nice line, so we should down here in West U!
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Quoting thunderbug91:


Thanks.... looks like the NHC can't keep ignoring its reexisience in the TWO too much longer...



yup
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115453
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT07/refresh /AL0711_PROB64_F120 gif/204113.gif
at least there's a chance...
Member Since: July 31, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 891
Quoting rv1pop:
Science is repeatable.


I've found that even if the theory should be correct, the execution may take some work. As a synthetic chemist I run into more reactions that don't work the first time you run them than do, even if they're well known or documented procedures. Sometimes it's a bad batch of a reagent, or there's some other environmental factor. Sometimes it's just whether or not you've sacrificed a hamster that day.

Unless of course you're Bengu Sezen, look her up sometime. Now that's a bedtime story for the ages.

*Oh, and I'm not disagreeing with you, I just thought I'd throw in my two cents.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



it will still be 93L


Thanks.... looks like the NHC can't keep ignoring its reexisience in the TWO too much longer...
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Quoting thunderbug91:
Will ex-93L regain classification as 93L? Or will it get a new name, like 97L or 98L...



it will still be 93L
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115453
Will ex-93L regain classification as 93L? Or will it get a new name, like 97L or 98L...
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Quoting stormpetrol:
ex93L has a large circulation and growing, wouldn't be surprised if it is soon reactivated!



yup
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115453
looks like TS Gert is either going to make a direct hit on bermuda or pass just east of the island
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I always see these things too late. lol.

... Significant weather advisory for Jasper... Newton and Orange
counties until 415 PM CDT...

At 327 PM CDT... National Weather Service meteorologists detected a
line of strong thunderstorms... along a line extending from call to
Deweyville... moving south at 15 mph.

The line of strong thunderstorms will affect areas in and around...
Hartburg... Forest Heights... Wrights settlement... Buna...
Mauriceville... Orange... gist... Bridge City and Vidor.

The primary threats from these storms are continuous lightning and
wind gusts 35 to 45 mph... which could down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe home or building
until these storms have passed.

These storms could produce rainfall amounts of one to two inches in a
short period of time... resulting in ponding of water around low lying
roadways. Remember... do not drive your vehicle into water covered
roadways. The depth may be too great to allow a safe crossing.
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ex93L has a large circulation and growing, wouldn't be surprised if it is soon reactivated!
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
96L. If this becomes Harvey we'd be talking about another non-Hurricane, I don't think the blog can handle that.. I'd have to post more posts like post 201.
This rememnds me of the 2003 atlantic hurricane season.Where the storms were mostly weak until late August when Fabian came around.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17794
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
359. deaddude21 6:31 PM GMT on August 14, 2011

This is not a political or religious blog, get that crap out of here.

When you offend me with your views on politics or religion and I make a comment about your views, why do you report me? When your "science" is theory aka theology it is a religion. Science is repeatable. Thank you. NOIBN.
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97L might not be far away. Keep an eye on the trough East of the Bahamas.
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595. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Bermuda Hurricane history..

2003 Sept 5th Hurricane Fabian hits with 120mph winds

2006 Sept 11th, Hurricane Florence passes approx 50 to 60 miles west

2010 Sept 19th Hurricane Igor passes just west
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...GERT SLOWLY STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES TOWARD BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 63.2W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

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593. Skyepony (Mod)
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 14th day of the month at 20:32Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Tropical Depression: Number 7 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 14
A. Time of Center Fix: 14th day of the month at 20:08:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 29°08'N 63°09'W (29.1333N 63.15W)
B. Center Fix Location: 240 miles (386 km) to the SSE (156°) from Hamilton, Bermuda (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,494m (4,902ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 29kts (~ 33.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 48 nautical miles (55 statute miles) to the NW (307°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 24° at 17kts (From the NNE at ~ 19.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the WNW (287°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1009mb (29.80 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,526m (5,007ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 42kts (~ 48.3mph) in the northeast quadrant at 19:17:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 37kts (~ 42.6mph) in the southeast quadrant at 20:21:00Z
Displacement of Sfc. Center From Flt. Lvl. Center: Surface center is 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the S (180°) from the flight level center
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
CENTER CLOUDY. VISUAL SFC CENTER SOUTH OF FLIGHT LEVEL CENTER.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Depends on your definition of 'direct hit'

My definition calls that Florence was the last direct hit.



ok
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115453
wounder what mode runs show on it
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115453
Quoting Tazmanian:



not sure


Depends on your definition of 'direct hit'

My definition calls that Florence was the last direct hit.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
If this becomes Harvey we'd be talking about another non-Hurricane, I don't think the blog can handle that.. I'd have to post more posts like post 201.


my favorite post ever
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96L. If this becomes Harvey we'd be talking about another non-Hurricane, I don't think the blog can handle that.. I'd have to post more posts like post 201.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
1006.9 mb
(~ 29.73 inHg)


40.2 mph just found three times
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Quoting LADobeLady:


People who have never had to live in the aftermath of a bad storm. You can survive a hurricane, you evacuate. It's the aftermath that just about kills you, the clean-up. No electricity in the deep south in August/Sept. Dealing with the life draining insurance companies.
Even though I live in D.C when Isabel came through I felt the after math.There was no power for 2 weeks.And here in D.C it can still get hot in Septemeber.Luckily I had some relitives in Maryland.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17794
Link

Could that little mess down by the Central American region be what the models are hitting on
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Woooohoooo, the little low preasure area finally gets the recognition it deserves, LOL. Considering it has a decent low pressure area, and marginally organized convection, I wouldn't be surprised if we knock out yet another name on another system that wouldn't be able to achieve anything more than 50-60mph.
Miami so far so good for Florida and the eastern seaboard
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367N, 638W would be this guy.
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581. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13
3:00 AM JST August 15 2011
==============================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1008 hPa) located at 36.0N 147.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving east northeast at 10 knots



Sea east of Japan
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
Taz was Hurricane Fabian the last hurricane to make a direct hit on Bermuda



not sure
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115453
Quoting Tazmanian:



thanks
Taz was Hurricane Fabian the last hurricane to make a direct hit on Bermuda
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Quoting Neapolitan:
And another one

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al962011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201108142020
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 96, 2011, DB, O, 2011081418, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL962011
AL, 96, 2011081418, , BEST, 0, 367N, 638W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
Woooohoooo, the little low preasure area finally gets the recognition it deserves, LOL. Considering it has a decent low pressure area, and marginally organized convection, I wouldn't be surprised if we knock out yet another name on another system that wouldn't be able to achieve anything more than 50-60mph.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
That's the same area we were looking at earlier, at the end of the trough, right?

All this added activity all over the place seems to suggest we're moving out of that "stable air" period we were in...

Awful far north: 400 miles north of Bermuda, and 700 miles east of Norfolk, Virginia.
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
taz its directly North of bermuda



thanks
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115453
1006.9 mb
(~ 29.73 inHg)
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115453

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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