Tropical Depression Seven forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:25 PM GMT on August 14, 2011

Share this Blog
14
+

The latest in our unusual number of weak tropical cyclones this season, Tropical Depression Seven, has formed to the southeast of Bermuda. Unless you live in Bermuda, TD 7 is not going to be a concern. Radar out of Bermuda shows an area of rain on the northern side of TD 7 beginning to approach the island, and rain from the storm will likely affect the island tonight and on Monday. TD 7 is not well-organized, and has only limited heavy thunderstorms, as seen on visible satellite images. While wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, dry air surrounds TD 7, and is keeping the storm from intensifying. None of the computer models foresee that TD 7 will ever become more than a weak tropical storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of TD 7.

92L
TD 7 isn't the only system Bermuda needs to watch, Invest 92L is a day behind it, and will follow a path very similar to TD 7's. The disturbance will pass close to Bermuda on Tuesday, bringing the island a second round of tropical rains. However, Invest 92L is very disorganized, as seen on recent visible satellite loops. Dry air and close proximity to TD 7 will likely keep 92L from showing significant development over the next two days, with NHC giving the system just a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa we've been tracking over the past few days, Invest 93L, has fallen apart and is no longer a threat to develop. This system will need to be watched once it enters the Caribbean later this week, though. None of the reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone formation predict development of this system or any new disturbances over the coming week.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 675 - 625

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40Blog Index

Quoting P451:
Hypothetical: If the season ends up with let's say 20 named storms, would you look back and say "WOW!! what an active season!" or would you look back and say "Yeah, the numbers are there, but 6 of those were tiny weak short lived systems."


Just wondering what is important to folks when judging a season's importance.



That's a real good question. ACE? Number of named storms? Human impact? Each category is valid.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting deaddude21:

Meh, that might be what the media will tell you, but in fact you can start putting away your hurricane equipment when September passes and the pattern begins to revert to fast troughs, and store them away for good as soon you start buying candy for trick-or-treaters. It's as close to impossible as it gets to have a US landfalling hurricane in November. There's just too many troughs and too much cold water. I'd like someone to show me an example to prove me wrong but it's just darn near impossible. Even October US hits are unlikely (10+ years apart from each other) and always come from the Caribbean so they're predictable.


Maybe where you live, but in South Florida October is a busy month.

Excerpt:

Although overall tropical activity typically begins to quiet down in the Atlantic Basin during the month of October, south Florida is still prone to a tropical cyclone strike. In fact, since 1851 more hurricanes have struck the south Florida mainland in October than in any other month of the season. A total of 19 hurricanes have impacted the south Florida mainland in October, compared to 15 in September. A total of 30 tropical cyclones (tropical storms and hurricanes) have affected mainland south Florida, also the most of any month. Although the number of hurricanes peak in October, the number of major hurricanes (Category 3 or greater) which have impacted the area is less than in September. Since 1851, a total of 7 major hurricanes have affected the area, ranking behind September which has had 11 major hurricanes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nofailsafe:


I've found that even if the theory should be correct, the execution may take some work. As a synthetic chemist I run into more reactions that don't work the first time you run them than do, even if they're well known or documented procedures. Sometimes it's a bad batch of a reagent, or there's some other environmental factor. Sometimes it's just whether or not you've sacrificed a hamster that day.

Unless of course you're Bengu Sezen, look her up sometime. Now that's a bedtime story for the ages.

*Oh, and I'm not disagreeing with you, I just thought I'd throw in my two cents.
And I agree completely ... kinda ... were you talking about science, religion or both? If both, we have agreement. Some variables are either unknown or hidden in both! (in "religion" they call it faith.)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting deaddude21:
All due respect, -AMO periods favor that more

And that's two in 100 years. Both Cat 1's too, imo November shouldn't be considered part of the season


Wasn't Wilma close to November? Maybe my memory isn't that great.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


My point is that, even though there haven't had many hurricane landfalls on the USA after October, you can't say that you could go ahead and put away all your hurricane preparedness supplies, because anything is possible.
Furthermore, there are more people on here than just the ones in the US. Hurricane Paloma 2008 hit the Cayman Islands as a Cat 4 in November.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Michelle in 2001 was a hurricane that came very close to Florida in November. Easily could have been a Florida landfall if the trough came in a little later.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting P451:
Hypothetical: If the season ends up with let's say 20 named storms, would you look back and say "WOW!! what an active season!" or would you look back and say "Yeah, the numbers are there, but 6 of those were tiny weak short lived systems."


Just wondering what is important to folks when judging a season's importance.



It just takes one bad storm for a season to be bad.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting deaddude21:
All due respect, -AMO periods favor that more

And that's two in 100 years. Both Cat 1's too, imo November shouldn't be considered part of the season


Why? Because we don't have many hurricane landfalls in November?

Tropical Storms can be very bad also, and there have been a lot of them over the past century.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Part of learning is to be always open to new ideas, changing opinions and the desire to continue learning.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting deaddude21:
Tropicalanalyst: But that's what I mean, cold water and shear from troughs is too much to allow anything strong to hit the CONUS in November. Ida was pretty weak to begin with though the most interesting storm of the terribly weak season.

When you think of the November hurricanes in recent history -- Lenny, Paloma, Tomas. What happens in every case? They go ENE out to sea or die before they approach Florida or the Gulf Coast. Ida was the best candidate, just too weak.
Dude!!.Some of the woarst hurricanes to happen in the carribean have happened in October-Novemeber.And you say just becuase no storms that come to the U.S have no chance??.Oh it's not important just becuase it doesn't hit the U.S???.Wilma cuased much damage to Mexico and the U.S!! the U.S.Opal much!!!!??.Don't try to write something off.Where the hell is your facts?.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting deaddude21:
Wow, the US is likely to be spared landfalls yet another hurricane season. This will make 5 out of 6 years...during an extensively active portion of an already active period...amazing.

And yes, Fabian is the last serious Bermuda hit. People complaining that "it's not a fish storm, it might hit Bermuda" need to get a reality check. A fish/recurving OTS storm has about 1 in 1,000 chance of a serious impact on Bermuda. Fabian is to Bermuda as say, Iniki is to Hawaii, or Hurricane Juan is to Halifax. Those places just don't get seriously hit by formidable hurricanes very often.


That is the dumbest thing I have ever heard. We haven't even peaked and you are already saying that the US will be spared???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormwatcherCI:



Hurricane Kate 1985
Winds 120 mph 954 mb
Formed November 15, 1985
Dissipated November 23, 1985
Areas
affected Cuba, Florida, Georgia
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting deaddude21:
Tropicalanalyst: But that's what I mean, cold water and shear from troughs is too much to allow anything strong to hit the CONUS in November. Ida was pretty weak to begin with though the most interesting storm of the terribly weak season.

When you think of the November hurricanes in recent history -- Lenny, Paloma, Tomas. What happens in every case? They go ENE out to sea or die before they approach Florida or the Gulf Coast. Ida was the best candidate, just too weak.


My point is that, even though there haven't had many hurricane landfalls on the USA after October, you can't say that you could go ahead and put away all your hurricane preparedness supplies, because anything is possible.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Lol I bet when the East Pacific spits out a storm that fails to hit hurricane status, the Atlantic will manage to spin up one that does.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting deaddude21:

Meh, that might be what the media will tell you, but in fact you can start putting away your hurricane equipment when September passes and the pattern begins to revert to fast troughs, and store them away for good as soon you start buying candy for trick-or-treaters. It's as close to impossible as it gets to have a US landfalling hurricane in November. There's just too many troughs and too much cold water. I'd like someone to show me an example to prove me wrong but it's just darn near impossible. Even October US hits are unlikely (10+ years apart from each other) and always come from the Caribbean so they're predictable.



Hurricane Kate 1985
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting deaddude21:

I'd like someone to show me an example to prove me wrong


Okay.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks fellow bloggers for taking care of Deaddude21 for me.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Fine.



LOL.. take that deandude
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting deaddude21:

Meh, that might be what the media will tell you, but in fact you can start putting away your hurricane equipment when September passes and the pattern begins to revert to fast troughs, and store them away for good as soon you start buying candy for trick-or-treaters. It's as close to impossible as it gets to have a US landfalling hurricane in November. There's just too many troughs and too much cold water. I'd like someone to show me an example to prove me wrong but it's just darn near impossible. Even October US hits are unlikely (10+ years apart from each other) and always come from the Caribbean so they're predictable.


Sorry, Dude, after Wilma spanked us, I don't put away hurricane kit until AFTER November 30th.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
CybrTeddy: +56
Dr. Masters: +7

Good fight, Dr. Masters.

On a side note, convection is starting to wane with 96L as it encounters a region of higher wind shear.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Already posted
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Take 1992 for example. That season started off with 3 or 4 (sub?)tropical depressions. What happened in August? Andrew.
I suspect in late August we'll get our first hurricane even major.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting islander101010:
sorry taz you got my vote about 4 yrs ago but im rooting against formation could be a angry one



lol ok
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115241
Quoting deaddude21:

Then what are the two light teal dots above the northernmost white dot doing? ZING.


Fine.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:



it will am rooting for it
sorry taz you got my vote about 4 yrs ago but im rooting against formation could be a angry one
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
theirs something their







Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting deaddude21:

Meh, that might be what the media will tell you, but in fact you can start putting away your hurricane equipment when September passes and the pattern begins to revert to fast troughs, and store them away for good as soon you start buying candy for trick-or-treaters. It's as close to impossible as it gets to have a US landfalling hurricane in November. There's just too many troughs and too much cold water. I'd like someone to show me an example to prove me wrong but it's just darn near impossible. Even October US hits are unlikely (10+ years apart from each other) and always come from the Caribbean so they're predictable.
y

Someone who says the U.S. will not be impacted by a hurricane this far out is out of touch, completly idiotic. Guess your some sort of pshycic or something. Good thing I dont believe in that type of stuff
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
201. CybrTeddy 5:12 PM GMT on August 14, 2011 +56

if thats not a record for not only the post of the year but post of WU history then i dont know what is LOL.


TS gert.


96L
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I think Cybr's post should be one of the below.

A) under Dr M's right before where you click on comments

B) at the top of each page

C) required reading before joining.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting islander101010:
there is now some spin with ex 93 but it needs to develop soon or it might have to wait to the central carib



it will am rooting for it
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115241
there is now some spin with ex 93 but it needs to develop soon or it might have to wait to the central carib
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting deaddude21:

Meh, that might be what the media will tell you, but in fact you can start putting away your hurricane equipment when September passes and the pattern begins to revert to fast troughs, and store them away for good as soon you start buying candy for trick-or-treaters. It's as close to impossible as it gets to have a US landfalling hurricane in November. There's just too many troughs and too much cold water. I'd like someone to show me an example to prove me wrong but it's just darn near impossible. Even October US hits are unlikely (10 years apart from each other) and always come from the Caribbean so they're predictable.


Gladly.



Hurricane Ida (2009). May not have been a hurricane at landfall, but it had been a hurricane within the past 48 hours prior to landfall.

Good afternoon all.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It just got DARK here! Fixing to get loud I imagine.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
And with those sst and TCHP something has to use it.Or else something waaaaay woarse will happen to us.
Take 1992 for example. That season started off with 3 or 4 (sub?)tropical depressions. What happened in August? Andrew.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
633. SLU
Quoting CybrTeddy:



.. your kidding right? You do realize, that every hurricane season since the beginning of the satellite era has seen a hurricane? And why don't you give facts to back that up, you've been saying for a few days that there won't be any hurricanes this year and why is that? Look at the SST's in the Atlantic, they're sky rocking above normal.

You know why there is dry air? Downward MJO causing suppressing convection and an average amount of SAL. You know why half our systems are weak this year? They're trough splits.. tell me when was the last time you saw a trough split form off the eastern seaboard that became a Category 3-4 hurricane? 1984 is your answer. Then finally look at last year, one quick glance at wiki would be all it would take - here, I'll link it for you. Link. Ignore Alex, Alex was a one-off, not even 2005 saw a Category 2 in the Gulf in June. Please, look at TD2, Bonnie, Colin then TD5. Then also remember we had several other invests that attempted to become tropical depressions that year.. then look at when we had our first true major hurricane, and our first hurricane in over two months.

The 2nd to last week of August, then what happened with the upward MJO came spinning around? Season went out of hand. Okay sure - no US landfalls. Sorry to break it to you, the USA is not the only country on the map. You want to hear something? Karl caused $5.6 billion dollars in damages.. one Category. It was IIRC the 3rd most destructive hurricane to hit Mexico. It was not retired because Mexico didn't request it. Please, look at the facts and stop making assumptions 'oh, its only mid-August and no hurricanes season is a bust inactive', and I'm tired of stressing this point if no one is going to listen and I had to rant and annoy you all for it last year too if you remember - we are ahead of schedule and conditions are primed for a change. The ECMWF shows a hurricane hitting the islands.. and that reverts right back to what I just said, do people on the islands not count? I know people who live in Barbados, I would be very upset if a bad hurricane hit them anytime soon.

Then look at this - this season the conditions are the same as last year and we're cranking out more storms that are facing the same conditions. What does that tell you? Once conditions lessen up, like they did last year, like they do EVERY year.. things will get active. You'll get your hurricane.

Sorry everyone, had to rant, very grumpy this PM, lol.


LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Anyone having trouble with google earth's cloud layer? I still have Emily on there
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
all so with gret moveing a way i noted there is a big blow up with 92L
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115241
Quoting Tazmanian:





gert is moveing a way from 92L so it may not be has close has you may think it is


It's sucking the life out of 92 l either way the vorticity is way down and it's losing storms fast
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
628. Skyepony (Mod)
Today's pass on an anemic Gert. Large quicktime..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:




looks like it froms ex93L


Yup
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting P451:


It's been raining for 15 consecutive hours where I am in SE NY State - approx 30 miles north of NYC.

They have 6-8"+ from Staten Island into Brooklyn.


It's a very fall-like system but not nor'easter like. The surface low is sliding northward through NJ along a front right now.

Had it done that off the coast of the DelMarVa we might have seen the winds crank up, the temperatures drop, and we would have seen a nor'easter develop.

Regardless of that it's a very impressive system - upper low over Ohio is amazing looking.



yup
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115241
Quoting washingaway:
The 18Z NAM - 84 hours out.





looks like it froms ex93L
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115241

Viewing: 675 - 625

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.