Tropical Depression Seven forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:25 PM GMT on August 14, 2011

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The latest in our unusual number of weak tropical cyclones this season, Tropical Depression Seven, has formed to the southeast of Bermuda. Unless you live in Bermuda, TD 7 is not going to be a concern. Radar out of Bermuda shows an area of rain on the northern side of TD 7 beginning to approach the island, and rain from the storm will likely affect the island tonight and on Monday. TD 7 is not well-organized, and has only limited heavy thunderstorms, as seen on visible satellite images. While wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, dry air surrounds TD 7, and is keeping the storm from intensifying. None of the computer models foresee that TD 7 will ever become more than a weak tropical storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of TD 7.

92L
TD 7 isn't the only system Bermuda needs to watch, Invest 92L is a day behind it, and will follow a path very similar to TD 7's. The disturbance will pass close to Bermuda on Tuesday, bringing the island a second round of tropical rains. However, Invest 92L is very disorganized, as seen on recent visible satellite loops. Dry air and close proximity to TD 7 will likely keep 92L from showing significant development over the next two days, with NHC giving the system just a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa we've been tracking over the past few days, Invest 93L, has fallen apart and is no longer a threat to develop. This system will need to be watched once it enters the Caribbean later this week, though. None of the reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone formation predict development of this system or any new disturbances over the coming week.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting MississippiWx:
We can't forget about this little critter north of Hispaniola either. It's quietly making its way around the Southern periphery of the Bermuda High...once it gets closer to the Bahamas, it might encounter more favorable conditions. Still has a nice area of vorticity.

favorite blues band is n. miss allstars what about ex 93?
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Quoting P451:


Ida was in ruins prior to landfall in Florida and by then her identity had begun to switch to developing a large extratropical system off of the Pressolina Coastline.


See my blog entries on IDA if you're interested in her entire start to finish process - of about 30 days of life from the SW Caribbean to Morocco.


History of IDA - Part one

History of IDA - Part two


Ah I remember Ida.. Was the most excitement we had on the blog in 2009 and it was in November lol. The suspense of how well Ida would turn out to be after it crossed central America was like Apollo 13's re-entry to some here. XD
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723. 900MB
Quoting MississippiWx:
92L is about to be absorbed by Gert. Could add an extra boost of energy to the storm...



It doesn't happen often, but I agree, 92L seems to be in the perfect position to feed in.

Meanwhile, almost 5 inches of rain in Central Park, 6"+ in Queens, might as well be a tropical storm right here in NYC!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yeah, it definitely deserves a mention in the Tropical Weather Outlook. IMO, it deserves at least a 60% code red, but they won't be so fast about it and start it out as a yellow circle or maybe an orange.

May end up like 95L last season...Deserved declaration, but never happened (That is argumentative).
In my opinion this should have been circled since at least 24 hours ago. I think it has already peaked. Conditions are no longer favorable for development. May be classified in post-season analysis.
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The average number of named storms by August 14 is three. We are now more than twice that.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32260
all that matter if it hits people so far so good this yr
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We can't forget about this little critter north of Hispaniola either. It's quietly making its way around the Southern periphery of the Bermuda High...once it gets closer to the Bahamas, it might encounter more favorable conditions. Still has a nice area of vorticity.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting AllStar17:
2010 certainly had its fare share of recurving/North Atlantic open water storms. But they all developed in the MDR and recurved. I've never seen as many frontal-type developments in one season before and its not even September yet.

Yep, this year is definitely a bit odd with all the frontal origins of development. That is one thing I like about weather. Expect the unexpected when dealing with mother nature.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Seems about right to me. Just an increase in convective organization and we have another system. Surprised this isn't even circled in the TWO.


Yeah, it definitely deserves a mention in the Tropical Weather Outlook. IMO, it deserves at least a 60% code red, but they won't be so fast about it and start it out as a yellow circle or maybe an orange.

May end up like 95L last season...Deserved declaration, but never happened (That is argumentative).
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32260
Quoting AllStar17:
2010 certainly had its fare share of recurving/North Atlantic open water storms. But they all developed in the MDR and recurved. I've never seen as many frontal-type developments in one season before and its not even September yet.


2001 had several (Gabrielle, Humberto, Karen, Lorenzo, Noel, and Olga). This year is very similar in that regard.
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1006.6 mb
(~ 29.72 inHg
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92L is about to be absorbed by Gert. Could add an extra boost of energy to the storm...

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Seems about right to me. Just an increase in convective organization and we have another system. Surprised this isn't even circled in the TWO.



well not yet any way but it will


i all so hop they say a little some in about ex 93L
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2010 certainly had its fare share of recurving/North Atlantic open water storms. But they all developed in the MDR and recurved. I've never seen as many frontal-type developments in one season before and its not even September yet.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Seems about right to me. Just an increase in convective organization and we have another system. Surprised this isn't even circled in the TWO.


Looks imbedded in the front to me.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
If I know one thing about 96L for sure, its that it has a well-defined circulation and it is closed. The only thing it lacks to become a tropical system is organized convection, and the center is going through times when it can be seen, and when it is obscured by strong thunderstorm activity. If shear were to lower for a just a little while, and even if it doesn't, there is still a good chance of this becoming a tropical depression or storm.

Seems about right to me. Just an increase in convective organization and we have another system. Surprised this isn't even circled in the TWO.
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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32260
Quoting deaddude21:

But that's my point troughs are just too strong.

IMO hurricane season should be June 15 to Nov. 5th, which still gives a few leeway days. Very little forms outside of those parameters.


I have an idea, why don't you suggest that to the NHC since you know more than they do.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
Ts IN HOUSTON! AFTER OUR 14TH CONSECUTIVE DAY ABOVE 100 DEGREES...It has dropped from 103 to 94!
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Quoting mcluvincane:


That's when he lost all credability. Almost trollish words he speaks
he is spouting his religion....... He has only pseudo-faith, no truth to back it up.
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Ex-93L is just starting to tap the warmer waters and is certainly more convectively (word?) active today as compared to yesterday. I see some spin/vorticity at about 52W. The whole system needs to slow down though, it is zipping westward.
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Quoting deaddude21:

But that's my point troughs are just too strong.

IMO hurricane season should be June 15 to Nov. 5th, which still gives a few leeway days. Very little forms outside of those parameters.
That would mean that only the U.S. matters to landfalls, and still would be inaccurate.

What about Paloma or Lenny? It goes to November 30 for a reason...
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Link


thanks
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s fl. was lucky with wilma what if she turned into a cat 5 then turned ne instead of crashing into the yucatan? could of had a cat 4 at leastin s fl.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


92L is being absorbed into Tropical Storm Gert IMO, it may be part of the tropical system soon. As for 93L, the chances for development prior to the Caribbean are Near 0%, but it will need to be watched in the Central/Western Caribbean for development.



ok thanks
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96L should have been declared an invest 24 hours ago. I pointed it out yesterday when it was NW of Bermuda and it had a decent low level circulation at that time. Seems like the NHC was too busy to declare another one. If you're going to declare one, you have to be consistent and declare all of these little areas.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
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When oh when will otherwise good members here learn to sniff out trolls and simply ignore them? (HINT: s/he's not here to expand upon his or her knowledge of tropical weather.)
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Maybe where you live, but in South Florida October is a busy month.

Excerpt:

Although overall tropical activity typically begins to quiet down in the Atlantic Basin during the month of October, south Florida is still prone to a tropical cyclone strike. In fact, since 1851 more hurricanes have struck the south Florida mainland in October than in any other month of the season. A total of 19 hurricanes have impacted the south Florida mainland in October, compared to 15 in September. A total of 30 tropical cyclones (tropical storms and hurricanes) have affected mainland south Florida, also the most of any month. Although the number of hurricanes peak in October, the number of major hurricanes (Category 3 or greater) which have impacted the area is less than in September. Since 1851, a total of 7 major hurricanes have affected the area, ranking behind September which has had 11 major hurricanes.

+1,000
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Quoting Tazmanian:




can have a link of where you got that photo from thanks all so plzs look at post 683


Link
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32260
Quoting Tazmanian:
TropicalAnalystwx13: what do you think about ex 93L it sure has made a good come back today


all so what you think of 92L i think 92L will have a btter ch once gret moves a way some


92L is being absorbed into Tropical Storm Gert IMO, it may be part of the tropical system soon. As for 93L, the chances for development prior to the Caribbean are Near 0%, but it will need to be watched in the Central/Western Caribbean for development.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32260
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
If I know one thing about 96L for sure, its that it has a well-defined circulation and it is closed. The only thing it lacks to become a tropical system is organized convection, and the center is going through times when it can be seen, and when it is obscured by strong thunderstorm activity. If shear were to lower for a just a little while, and even if it doesn't, there is still a good chance of this becoming a tropical depression or storm.





can have a link of where you got that photo from thanks all so plzs look at post 683
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Quoting deaddude21:

Note the major hurricane difference. Sure every 8 years or so you'll get a weakling that manages to travel through the Caribbean Hebert Box and hit Florida but I dare you to find me another Wilma.


Hurricane King developed over the western Caribbean Sea, tracked northeast across central Cuba, then turned north-northwest, making landfall at Miami just before midnight on October 17, 1950 as a major Category 3 hurricane.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Gladly.



Hurricane Ida (2009). May not have been a hurricane at landfall, but it had been a hurricane within the past 48 hours prior to landfall.

Good afternoon all.

I hurricane in 1925 made landfall in the US in December
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If I know one thing about 96L for sure, its that it has a well-defined circulation and it is closed. The only thing it lacks to become a tropical system is organized convection, and the center is going through times when it can be seen, and when it is obscured by strong thunderstorm activity. If shear were to lower for a just a little while, and even if it doesn't, there is still a good chance of this becoming a tropical depression or storm.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32260
Quoting washingtonian115:
Dude!!.Some of the woarst hurricanes to happen in the carribean have happened in October-Novemeber.And you say just becuase no storms that come to the U.S have no chance??.Oh it's not important just becuase it doesn't hit the U.S???.Wilma cuased much damage to Mexico and the U.S!! the U.S.Opal much!!!!??.Don't try to write something off.Where the hell is your facts?.


That's when he lost all credability. Almost trollish words he speaks
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TropicalAnalystwx13: what do you think about ex 93L it sure has made a good come back today


all so what you think of 92L i think 92L will have a btter ch once gret moves a way some
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Anyways...Don't give up hope for 96L just yet. You know the storms in past seasons such as Grace in 2009 couldn't have had favorable environmental conditions that far north, could it have?


Vince is another great example.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Anyways...Don't give up hope for 96L just yet. You know the storms in past seasons such as Grace in 2009 couldn't have had favorable environmental conditions that far north, could it have?

But yet, it formed.



vary ture
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Quoting starbuck02:


Wasn't Wilma close to November? Maybe my memory isn't that great.
Oct 15-26.
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You know my favorite bumper sticker? 'Hire a teenager while they still know it all'. I still have two teens at home and two that are now in their twenties. I keep waiting for one of them to get me that bumper sticker. The older two now quote it.
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Quoting deaddude21:

October 24th. Did you really believe Gamma was going to intensify to a major and hit you?


Last I checked hurricane season ends November 30th, so you can never let your guard down.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
Anyways...Don't give up hope for 96L just yet. You know the storms in past seasons such as Grace in 2009 couldn't have had favorable environmental conditions that far north, could it have?

But yet, it formed.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32260
Quoting P451:
Hypothetical: If the season ends up with let's say 20 named storms, would you look back and say "WOW!! what an active season!" or would you look back and say "Yeah, the numbers are there, but 6 of those were tiny weak short lived systems."


Just wondering what is important to folks when judging a season's importance.



That's a real good question. ACE? Number of named storms? Human impact? Each category is valid.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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