Tropical Depression Seven forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:25 PM GMT on August 14, 2011

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The latest in our unusual number of weak tropical cyclones this season, Tropical Depression Seven, has formed to the southeast of Bermuda. Unless you live in Bermuda, TD 7 is not going to be a concern. Radar out of Bermuda shows an area of rain on the northern side of TD 7 beginning to approach the island, and rain from the storm will likely affect the island tonight and on Monday. TD 7 is not well-organized, and has only limited heavy thunderstorms, as seen on visible satellite images. While wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, dry air surrounds TD 7, and is keeping the storm from intensifying. None of the computer models foresee that TD 7 will ever become more than a weak tropical storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of TD 7.

92L
TD 7 isn't the only system Bermuda needs to watch, Invest 92L is a day behind it, and will follow a path very similar to TD 7's. The disturbance will pass close to Bermuda on Tuesday, bringing the island a second round of tropical rains. However, Invest 92L is very disorganized, as seen on recent visible satellite loops. Dry air and close proximity to TD 7 will likely keep 92L from showing significant development over the next two days, with NHC giving the system just a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa we've been tracking over the past few days, Invest 93L, has fallen apart and is no longer a threat to develop. This system will need to be watched once it enters the Caribbean later this week, though. None of the reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone formation predict development of this system or any new disturbances over the coming week.

Jeff Masters

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looking at recon, Gert may sadly have the strongest circulation of any system this season lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormhank:
Im thinking we will prob have more landfalls this year also... Im gonna go with at least 2 hurricane landfalls could be more. Hopefully everyone is prepared and ready.


The continued lack of hurricane strikes is NOT a good thing. This same situation occurred in the early 1970s, and was even noted by former senior hurricane specialist Miles Lawrence, who retired from the NHC in 2005.

All it does is breed complacency, which in the end costs more lives and money than it otherwise would have.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Pretty well-defined upper level anticyclone atop 93L. Favorable upper-level conditions are also present over the AOI north of HispaƱola.

96L is diving into an area of 40 knot westerly upper-level winds.

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Quoting MississippiWx:
More evidence that 92L is getting absorbed into Gert...Look at the 850mb vort:

6 hours ago:



Now:



Notice that that area near Puerto Rico has completely split from Gert.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6877
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Looks like 93l's got a little stronger?


Yeah, the vort is a little stronger. Needs to get a lot stronger than that to be a player, though.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10247
Quoting thunderbug91:
Will ex-93L regain classification as 93L? Or will it get a new name, like 97L or 98L...
Basic rule of reclassification is whether or not the entity has completely dissipated and / or interacted with other entities. Even though 93L was deactivated, the actual weather feature i.e. the associated Twave never completely disappeared. So because it is the same feature, it gets the same name / number. Other features, e.g. Emily the second time around, which have been absorbed by other weather systems, will not get back their old name. That's because they're a composite of the old, named feature and the new feature. The most notable example of this for me is Hurricane Katrina.
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Im thinking we will prob have more landfalls this year also... Im gonna go with at least 2 hurricane landfalls could be more. Hopefully everyone is prepared and ready.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:
More evidence that 92L is getting absorbed into Gert...Look at the 850mb vort:

6 hours ago:



Now:



Looks like 93l's got a little stronger?
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 151
Quoting KoritheMan:
Long-range (10 to 15 day) GFS continues to indicate a much more favorable synoptic steering regime for United States landfalls, with ridging over the east, and troughing over the south



ouch
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115097
Quoting deaddude21:

Fine, be that way. Iggy me. Thin skin is going to destroy America faster than the faux bird flu pandemic would have in 2006.



<
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Long-range (10 to 15 day) GFS continues to indicate a much more favorable synoptic steering regime for United States landfalls, with ridging over the east, and troughing over the south
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Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This sudden burst of activity is just a glimpse of what we will see later this month and into the month of September. MJO is expected to enter the basin and stick around through the end of this month, and probably longer. Wind shear is now very low across the tropical Atlantic, and once the MJO enters the region, so will be much of the dry air and SAL. Sea Surface temperatures are boiling, and TCHP in the western Caribbean is now skyrocketing.

I seriously doubt we won't reach at least 18 named storms, and there is a good chance of tying, or surpassing, last years numbers. Not trying to spell doom, just posting what I see.





I think this season will surpass last year's total TS numbers, but not ACE or hurricane numbers. Might be close though.
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Quoting deaddude21:

+1 for having SOME reason.
Lol now I only have "some" reason. How am I not fully reasonable....? Oh well... I tried.

Anyway, 93L may be in the most favorable environment out of all the tropical entities we are watching now. If it can acquire more vorticity, look out.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This sudden burst of activity is just a glimpse of what we will see later this month and into the month of September. MJO is expected to enter the basin and stick around through the end of this month, and probably longer. Wind shear is now very low across the tropical Atlantic, and once the MJO enters the region, so will be much of the dry air and SAL. Sea Surface temperatures are boiling, and TCHP in the western Caribbean is now skyrocketing.

I seriously doubt we won't reach at least 18 named storms, and there is a good chance of tying, or surpassing, last years numbers. Not trying to spell doom, just posting what I see.



Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32040
More evidence that 92L is getting absorbed into Gert...Look at the 850mb vort:

6 hours ago:



Now:

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10247
Quoting weatherh98:
Poll time

How many storms this year?

A10 or below
B11-15
c over 15

how strong will gert be when it passes bermuda?

a35-45
b45-55
c55-65

What will 96l be at 8??

a0-20%
b30-50%
c60-80%
d td

When will ex93l be rementioned

a8 pm
b2 am
c8 am
d2pm

i think c b b a

CCCA
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5682
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Time to pull out the sweaters!


Might have to call out the salt trucks.

Oh, and: Evacuate the Katy Prairie! oh noes...!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting islander101010:
favorite blues band is n. miss allstars what about ex 93?


Lol...Nice. We have a lot of talent here in MS. Anywhere from music, to athletics, to movie stars...you name it. We got it! :-)

Anyway, x93L needs to be watched, especially down the road in the Caribbean. As for now, it has lost all model support. The Euro tries to develop it in the extreme Western Caribbean before coming ashore in Central America. If it can keep any sort of vorticity going, it will have favorable conditions in the Caribbean with the MJO, low shear, and very high SSTs.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10247
Quoting weatherh98:
Poll time

How many storms this year?

A10 or below
B11-15
c over 15

how strong will gert be when it passes bermuda?

a35-45
b45-55
c55-65

What will 96l be at 8??

a0-20%
b30-50%
c60-80%
d td

When will ex93l be rementioned

a8 pm
b2 am
c8 am
d2pm

i think c b b a


CCBC.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32040
Quoting KoritheMan:


They will come. 2001 did not see its first hurricane until September 9, which is nearly a month later than now. That season went on to produce 9 hurricanes, and 4 majors.



ok
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115097
Quoting weatherh98:
Poll time

How many storms this year?

A10 or below
B11-15
c over 15

how strong will gert be when it passes bermuda?

a35-45
b45-55
c55-65

What will 96l be at 8??

a0-20%
b30-50%
c60-80%
d td

When will ex93l be rementioned

a8 pm
b2 am
c8 am
d2pm

i think c b b a


C
C
A
D
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
POOF!!! Your condescending attitude is something else. A lot of people come here to look for valued information, they do not need to see a comment where they should pack up their hurricane supplies. Really?


Quoting deaddude21:
LOL at me being JFV, Jason, or a troll.

Some people are being fascists here, everyone who doesn't conform or comply to popular opinion is a troll.

Really, instead of posting on a blog, on WU, the blog posts on you.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Dennis8:
Ts IN HOUSTON! AFTER OUR 14TH CONSECUTIVE DAY ABOVE 100 DEGREES...It has dropped from 103 to 94!


Time to pull out the sweaters!
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11155
Quoting MississippiWx:
We can't forget about this little critter north of Hispaniola either. It's quietly making its way around the Southern periphery of the Bermuda High...once it gets closer to the Bahamas, it might encounter more favorable conditions. Still has a nice area of vorticity.



Noticed that area several times on vorticy maps.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6877
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yeah, we are slightly behind there. The average number of hurricanes by now is one. We have zero, but that will change as we head later into the month and into next month, no doubt.



i sure hop so
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115097
Quoting CitikatzSouthFL:
Pouring rain in Port St. Lucie, FL...thunder and lightning! Love it!


I just have cloudy skies in st lucie west. Not fair lol.
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Quoting brazocane:
Of course that nice little line of storms cant make it to Galveston County....uggggh


It's drizzling here in west u. They started to fizzle once they got inside the beltway, as usual... :(
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormhank:
At this point it seems Gert will remain a TS..now has this ever happened before? first 7 named storms bein TS's and none becomin hurricanes??


If Harvey doesn't become a hurricane, it will be a record.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32040
Quoting stormhank:
At this point it seems Gert will remain a TS..now has this ever happened before? first 7 named storms bein TS's and none becomin hurricanes??


To my knowledge, no.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherh98:
Poll time

How many storms this year?

A10 or below
B11-15
c over 15

how strong will gert be when it passes bermuda?

a35-45
b45-55
c55-65

What will 96l be at 8??

a0-20%
b30-50%
c60-80%
d td

When will ex93l be rementioned

a8 pm
b2 am
c8 am
d2pm

i think c b b a


CCBA
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:



and no hurricane yet lol


They will come. 2001 did not see its first hurricane until September 9, which is nearly a month later than now. That season went on to produce 9 hurricanes, and 4 majors.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Of course that nice little line of storms cant make it to Galveston County....uggggh
Member Since: August 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 678
Quoting stormhank:
At this point it seems Gert will remain a TS..now has this ever happened before? first 7 named storms bein TS's and none becomin hurricanes??


Nope, never happened. Record was 6 in 2002 and another year in the mid 1900's or something. And if 96L gets named it will make 8 lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Poll time

How many storms this year?

A10 or below
B11-15
c over 15

how strong will gert be when it passes bermuda?

a35-45
b45-55
c55-65

What will 96l be at 8??

a0-20%
b30-50%
c60-80%
d td

When will ex93l be rementioned

a8 pm
b2 am
c8 am
d2pm

i think c b b a
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:



and no hurricane yet lol


Yeah, we are slightly behind there. The average number of hurricanes by now is one. We have zero, but that will change as we head later into the month and into next month, no doubt.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32040
Pouring rain in Port St. Lucie, FL...thunder and lightning! Love it!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
730. ackee
I wonder what the outlook will be 96L and EX93L at 8pm 96L looks medium dont think the NHC will mention ex93L UNTIL it get better organize
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Wait, we actually have 96L now? Must have missed that. Wasn't that the area off of the NC coast a couple days ago that I and others were talking about? It was on the same front as Franklin right? If this forms, that means we would have TWO pairs of frontal tropical storms that formed off of the same trough.
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At this point it seems Gert will remain a TS..now has this ever happened before? first 7 named storms bein TS's and none becomin hurricanes??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting deaddude21:
LOL at me being JFV, Jason, or a troll.

Some people are being fascists here, everyone who doesn't conform or comply to popular opinion is a troll.

Really, instead of posting on a blog, on WU, the blog posts on you.
I thought you had interesting points, I just strongly disagree with them. I could see where you are coming from though with the strong troughs.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The average number of named storms by August 14 is three. We are now more than twice that.




and no hurricane yet lol
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115097
Quoting MississippiWx:
We can't forget about this little critter north of Hispaniola either. It's quietly making its way around the Southern periphery of the Bermuda High...once it gets closer to the Bahamas, it might encounter more favorable conditions. Still has a nice area of vorticity.

favorite blues band is n. miss allstars what about ex 93?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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