Tropical Depression Seven forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:25 PM GMT on August 14, 2011

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The latest in our unusual number of weak tropical cyclones this season, Tropical Depression Seven, has formed to the southeast of Bermuda. Unless you live in Bermuda, TD 7 is not going to be a concern. Radar out of Bermuda shows an area of rain on the northern side of TD 7 beginning to approach the island, and rain from the storm will likely affect the island tonight and on Monday. TD 7 is not well-organized, and has only limited heavy thunderstorms, as seen on visible satellite images. While wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, dry air surrounds TD 7, and is keeping the storm from intensifying. None of the computer models foresee that TD 7 will ever become more than a weak tropical storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of TD 7.

92L
TD 7 isn't the only system Bermuda needs to watch, Invest 92L is a day behind it, and will follow a path very similar to TD 7's. The disturbance will pass close to Bermuda on Tuesday, bringing the island a second round of tropical rains. However, Invest 92L is very disorganized, as seen on recent visible satellite loops. Dry air and close proximity to TD 7 will likely keep 92L from showing significant development over the next two days, with NHC giving the system just a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa we've been tracking over the past few days, Invest 93L, has fallen apart and is no longer a threat to develop. This system will need to be watched once it enters the Caribbean later this week, though. None of the reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone formation predict development of this system or any new disturbances over the coming week.

Jeff Masters

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that wave coming off Africa is very impressive
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Winds 120 mph 954 mb
Formed November 15, 1985
Dissipated November 23, 1985
Areas
affected Cuba, Florida, Georgia
It had some effects on us, here in Puerto Rico in bands of rain and Tropical Storms force winds. I remembered because a TS or a hurricane in Novemer is a very rare event, plus I would never forget the 20'high waves that affected the NW side of the island, very impressive, indeed.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



Hey I think we may need to start turning our attention to the wave coming off of Africa, maybe future 97L or 98L depending on when that AOI north of the Caribbean Islands gets designated.

Thanks taz, would have missed it if you hadn't posted it.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6874
Quoting ncstorm:
From our local TV Weather..

STORMTRACK 3: A cell capable of producing a tornado is moving east at 15 mph over Holly Shelter Game Land.



Oh no. Hope it doesn't get too bad.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 58
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Every cyclone starts off as a "little spin".
will be a keys threat or off with the rest of the them?
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Quoting j2008:

People need to stop wishcasting for hurricanes, they will come, probably very soon in fact. The thing is, I've seen this happen so many times, people will wish for a hurricane so many times, and then a Cat 5 slams into the US and everybody complains about hurricanes. Its a sad fact of life, people love to complain. Dont want it to seem like I'm getting mad at anyone but I dont appriciate how people have been complaining last week. The hurricanes will come, please be safe everyone :).


and yet you are complaining too, kind of ironic to me ;)
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Quoting ncstorm:
From our local TV Weather..

STORMTRACK 3: A cell capable of producing a tornado is moving east at 15 mph over Holly Shelter Game Land.



Yikes! Stay safe.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 572 Comments: 20337
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Every cyclone starts off as a "little spin".


Lol...You mean they don't top the vorticity scale to start with? Crazy stuff.
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815. j2008
Quoting stormhank:
IMO even though we havnet had a hurricane as yet..lets remember that last year when danielle formed on Aug.21st that before the season ended we had 11 hurricanes ..so I think the hurricanes will come .right now I beleive we could see at least 2 hurricanes before August ends. JMHO.

People need to stop wishcasting for hurricanes, they will come, probably very soon in fact. The thing is, I've seen this happen so many times, people will wish for a hurricane so many times, and then a Cat 5 slams into the US and everybody complains about hurricanes. Its a sad fact of life, people love to complain. Dont want it to seem like I'm getting mad at anyone but I dont appriciate how people have been complaining last week. The hurricanes will come, please be safe everyone :).
Member Since: December 19, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 224
Quoting blsealevel:


nice here too, can actully go out side with breakin a sweat


It has been a while since you could do that around here for sure!
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 58
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114910
Quoting deaddude21:

It's a little spin, nothing more. I've seen many greater magnitudes of wannabe storms like that through the years. And then there's TD 10 but conditions went downright PERFECT and it always had a well defined COC.
Every cyclone starts off as a "little spin".
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21098
Quoting tropicfreak:


Last I checked hurricane season ends November 30th, so you can never let your guard down.
Actually I think hurricane season was EXTENDED to November, because, well they were having hurricanes a lot.... there was actually some discussion a few years back about extending the end of season to Dec 15.... lol
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21864
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114910
Lol. Thanks everyone. We'll enjoy it while we can. :)
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 58
807. ackee
Quoting weatherh98:
Poll time

How many storms this year?

A10 or below
B11-15
c over 15

how strong will gert be when it passes bermuda?

a35-45
b45-55
c55-65

What will 96l be at 8??

a0-20%
b30-50%
c60-80%
d td

When will ex93l be rementioned

a8 pm
b2 am
c8 am
d2pm

i think c b b a
c B B D
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From our local TV Weather..

STORMTRACK 3: A cell capable of producing a tornado is moving east at 15 mph over Holly Shelter Game Land.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
WAIT! What is this feeling? I think I'm um actually cold? Lol. Sorry took me a second to recognize the sensation. And this is why we put up with the heat dear friends (at least me anyways). The mercury dropped below 80 and I need to go put socks on. Lol.

Weather Station
Orange (KORG)
Elevation
13 ft
Station Select
Now
Thunderstorm
Thunderstorm
Temperature
75 °F
Feels Like 75 °F



nice here too, can actully go out side with breakin a sweat
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
803. Skyepony (Mod)
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 14th day of the month at 21:52Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Tropical Depression: Number 7 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 18
A. Time of Center Fix: 14th day of the month at 21:23:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 29°23'N 63°06'W (29.3833N 63.1W)
B. Center Fix Location: 226 miles (363 km) to the SSE (153°) from Hamilton, Bermuda (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,493m (4,898ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 41kts (~ 47.2mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 9 nautical miles (10 statute miles) to the NE (42°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 128° at 41kts (From the SE at ~ 47.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles) to the NE (46°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1008mb (29.77 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 13°C (55°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 45kts (~ 51.8mph) in the east quadrant at 20:43:30Z
Displacement of Sfc. Center From Flt. Lvl. Center: Surface center is 9 nautical miles to the S (180°) from the flight level center
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 21°C (70°F) which was observed 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the WSW (240°) from the flight level center
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
VISUAL SFC CENTER 180/09 FROM FLIGHT LEVEL CENTER.
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little spin north of hispanola might be the first of the systems conus homers have to deal with
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IMO even though we havnet had a hurricane as yet..lets remember that last year when danielle formed on Aug.21st that before the season ended we had 11 hurricanes ..so I think the hurricanes will come .right now I beleive we could see at least 2 hurricanes before August ends. JMHO.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Last year had a lot more dry air and SAL.


I thought anomalous upper lows were the culprit?
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 572 Comments: 20337
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
WAIT! What is this feeling? I think I'm um actually cold? Lol. Sorry took me a second to recognize the sensation. And this is why we put up with the heat dear friends (at least me anyways). The mercury dropped below 80 and I need to go put socks on. Lol.

Weather Station
Orange (KORG)
Elevation
13 ft
Station Select
Now
Thunderstorm
Thunderstorm
Temperature
75 °F
Feels Like 75 °F

You guys deserve it after going through all summer with that heat.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
t-storms with ex 93L seem too be weaking some tonight but sould re fire later
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114910
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
WAIT! What is this feeling? I think I'm um actually cold? Lol. Sorry took me a second to recognize the sensation. And this is why we put up with the heat dear friends (at least me anyways). The mercury dropped below 80 and I need to go put socks on. Lol.

Weather Station
Orange (KORG)
Elevation
13 ft
Station Select
Now
Thunderstorm
Thunderstorm
Temperature
75 F
Feels Like 75 F



LOL.

You guys deserve the cooler weather. Probably won't last long though, unfortunately.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
WAIT! What is this feeling? I think I'm um actually cold? Lol. Sorry took me a second to recognize the sensation. And this is why we put up with the heat dear friends (at least me anyways). The mercury dropped below 80 and I need to go put socks on. Lol.

Weather Station
Orange (KORG)
Elevation
13 ft
Station Select
Now
Thunderstorm
Thunderstorm
Temperature
75 °F
Feels Like 75 °F



I'm so happy for you guys though. :)
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 572 Comments: 20337
Quoting nofailsafe:


It's drizzling here in west u. They started to fizzle once they got inside the beltway, as usual... :(


Maybe that second line can hold on long enough it is much stronger...doubt it though it has a long way to go
Member Since: August 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 678
WAIT! What is this feeling? I think I'm um actually cold? Lol. Sorry took me a second to recognize the sensation. And this is why we put up with the heat dear friends (at least me anyways). The mercury dropped below 80 and I need to go put socks on. Lol.

Weather Station
Orange (KORG)
Elevation
13 ft
Station Select
Now
Thunderstorm
Thunderstorm
Temperature
75 °F
Feels Like 75 °F

Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 58
Quoting robert88:


There has been a good amount of SAL in the Atlantic. Dry sinking air is not a good recipe for development. It is a bigger killer than shear majority of the time. The Atlantic just needs more time to squeeze out the remaining bigger spots of dry air. The wave train coming off Africa should moisten it up good in the coming weeks and September should be one crazy active month...especially if the MJO sticks around a little longer.


Last year had a lot more dry air and SAL.
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* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* GERT AL072011 08/14/11 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 44 47 51 54 54 51 45 40 37 34
V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 44 47 51 54 54 51 45 40 37 34
V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 41 44 47 52 55 54 49 46 45 47 51
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP

SHEAR (KT) 6 4 5 7 9 10 4 30 65 58 42 26 28
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 -1 -3 -1 2 5 0 -2 -2 -4 1
SHEAR DIR 295 348 349 13 9 24 201 233 237 238 237 235 241
SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.3 27.6 27.1 26.3 24.5 16.9 10.6 12.7 11.1 11.0 11.5
POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 141 133 128 121 107 77 70 69 67 66 65
ADJ. POT. INT. 125 124 123 117 113 109 97 73 68 67 65 63 63
200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.3 -51.4 -49.7 -49.3 -49.6 -49.4
TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 11 9 4 0 0 0 0 0 0
700-500 MB RH 56 57 58 59 62 65 66 64 56 51 42 46 45
GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 3 2 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -17 -31 -44 -48 -50 -60 -31 31 92 148 169 151 166
200 MB DIV -3 7 3 17 40 17 32 16 22 31 21 10 2
700-850 TADV 4 2 -1 1 5 10 7 -18 -82 -93 -44 -31 -44
LAND (KM) 1160 1240 1290 1242 1162 892 675 277 513 933 1281 1448 1203
LAT (DEG N) 28.6 29.4 30.2 31.6 33.0 36.4 40.3 44.5 48.9 52.1 54.2 55.7 56.0
LONG(DEG W) 63.1 63.4 63.6 63.4 63.1 60.6 56.3 51.4 46.0 41.0 36.5 32.4 28.5
STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 11 14 17 23 27 28 26 20 15 12 11
HEAT CONTENT 29 25 15 8 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=623)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0)
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Quoting P451:
Hypothetical: If the season ends up with let's say 20 named storms, would you look back and say "WOW!! what an active season!" or would you look back and say "Yeah, the numbers are there, but 6 of those were tiny weak short lived systems."


Just wondering what is important to folks when judging a season's importance.

If pple are really honest, they'll say, "It all depends on whether one of those OTHER storms had a direct impact on me."... lol But yeah, doubt most pple would be much concerned about the 6 weak storms if during ASO we had a lot of big bad ones.

Quoting deaddude21:
Tropicalanalyst: But that's what I mean, cold water and shear from troughs is too much to allow anything strong to hit the CONUS in November. Ida was pretty weak to begin with though the most interesting storm of the terribly weak season.

When you think of the November hurricanes in recent history -- Lenny, Paloma, Tomas. What happens in every case? They go ENE out to sea or die before they approach Florida or the Gulf Coast. Ida was the best candidate, just too weak.
Frankly, should I care so much if they don't hit the US, so long as they DO hit:

Any Lesser Antilles island
Caymans
Jamaica
Hispaniola
Cuba
The Bahamas / TCI???

All this is pretty subjective. I agree with the person who said the season isn't over until 30 Nov. The fact that YOU haven't been hit before doesn't mean that you can't get hit. With SSTs staying anomalously warmer later into the season, the possibilities are still there.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21864
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Pretty well-defined upper level anticyclone atop 93L. Favorable upper-level conditions are also present over the AOI north of Hispañola.

96L is diving into an area of 40 knot westerly upper-level winds.

I think 93L will probally develop while in the carribean.Or at least have the chances upped for development.
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Quoting stormhank:
Anyone think 93l could be reclassified by the NHC by tomorrow? I believe its movin into more favorable conditions?


I think they will wait until Tuesday.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 572 Comments: 20337
785. j2008
Quoting stormhank:
Anyone think 93l could be reclassified by the NHC by tomorrow? I believe its movin into more favorable conditions?

Yup I think so...
Member Since: December 19, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 224
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This sudden burst of activity is just a glimpse of what we will see later this month and into the month of September. MJO is expected to enter the basin and stick around through the end of this month, and probably longer. Wind shear is now very low across the tropical Atlantic, and once the MJO enters the region, so will be much of the dry air and SAL. Sea Surface temperatures are boiling, and TCHP in the western Caribbean is now skyrocketing.

I seriously doubt we won't reach at least 18 named storms, and there is a good chance of tying, or surpassing, last years numbers. Not trying to spell doom, just posting what I see.





There has been a good amount of SAL in the Atlantic. Dry sinking air is not a good recipe for development. It is a bigger killer than shear majority of the time. The Atlantic just needs more time to squeeze out the remaining bigger spots of dry air. The wave train coming off Africa should moisten it up good in the coming weeks and September should be one crazy active month...especially if the MJO sticks around a little longer.
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Quoting stormhank:
Anyone think 93l could be reclassified by the NHC by tomorrow? I believe its movin into more favorable conditions?



i do
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114910
Anyone think 93l could be reclassified by the NHC by tomorrow? I believe its movin into more favorable conditions?
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XX/AOI/XL
MARK
13.33N/53.23W


07L/TS/G/CX
invest 92L TO SE BEING ABSORBED



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Quoting MississippiWx:


Yeah, the vort is a little stronger. Needs to get a lot stronger than that to be a player, though.


Yeah. I do remember way back when it had support that the models showed it would be a slow development.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 58
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:





My philosiphy.... Report ignore move on
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6468
98E is not looking healthy at all right now. Its thunderstorm activity is separated well away from its center of circulation. Chances aren't looking good for classification at this time, and it doesn't deserve a code red.

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I guess I was wrong on 93, it seems to have vanished! Well almost.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Nice Banner!!!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This sudden burst of activity is just a glimpse of what we will see later this month and into the month of September. MJO is expected to enter the basin and stick around through the end of this month, and probably longer. Wind shear is now very low across the tropical Atlantic, and once the MJO enters the region, so will be much of the dry air and SAL. Sea Surface temperatures are boiling, and TCHP in the western Caribbean is now skyrocketing.

I seriously doubt we won't reach at least 18 named storms, and there is a good chance of tying, or surpassing, last years numbers. Not trying to spell doom, just posting what I see.



I agree.
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looking at recon, Gert may sadly have the strongest circulation of any system this season lol
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.