Tropical Depression Seven forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:25 PM GMT on August 14, 2011

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The latest in our unusual number of weak tropical cyclones this season, Tropical Depression Seven, has formed to the southeast of Bermuda. Unless you live in Bermuda, TD 7 is not going to be a concern. Radar out of Bermuda shows an area of rain on the northern side of TD 7 beginning to approach the island, and rain from the storm will likely affect the island tonight and on Monday. TD 7 is not well-organized, and has only limited heavy thunderstorms, as seen on visible satellite images. While wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, dry air surrounds TD 7, and is keeping the storm from intensifying. None of the computer models foresee that TD 7 will ever become more than a weak tropical storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of TD 7.

92L
TD 7 isn't the only system Bermuda needs to watch, Invest 92L is a day behind it, and will follow a path very similar to TD 7's. The disturbance will pass close to Bermuda on Tuesday, bringing the island a second round of tropical rains. However, Invest 92L is very disorganized, as seen on recent visible satellite loops. Dry air and close proximity to TD 7 will likely keep 92L from showing significant development over the next two days, with NHC giving the system just a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa we've been tracking over the past few days, Invest 93L, has fallen apart and is no longer a threat to develop. This system will need to be watched once it enters the Caribbean later this week, though. None of the reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone formation predict development of this system or any new disturbances over the coming week.

Jeff Masters

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925. HCW
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Where in TX?


Newton ,TX 10 miles north of Orange Brief Touchdown
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Quoting louisianaboy444:


He is actually one of my best friends

Great! So, like you said, where does he get this stuff?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
There was a tornado reported in Texas.


Same in NC just north of Wilmington, I believe near Wrightsville Beach.

MD in effect for NC and VA, can't believe they didn't do this earlier. Already a confirmed tornado in NC, and another possible one near Winston Salem.

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I know there a few areas of Texas that got a little relief but is there any hope in our near Future. 105 again today and 100 or great since June 26th here, this is getting really old, only difference i have seen in the past 2 weeks is increased humidity and much higher heat indexes but other than that my weather this year has stayed the same, Bone Dry.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


with the wave just coming off Africa well-organized and fitting that timeframe; I see that solution as very plausible
I agree, and it does develop the AEW emerging right now.

Notice how it develops though. Very weak low pressure area that remains below 15˚N as it treks westward. As soon as it reaches 55˚W, it becomes a tropical cyclone.

This is the same scenario that is very possible to occur with 93L considering the relatively favorable atmospheric conditions that await the system in the eastern Caribbean. Definitely an ominous pattern setting up as we head into the heat of the season.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting BahaHurican:
But that's why he - and most of the rest of us - are here, right? To learn? And the rest of the bloggers, who don't necessarily agree with him, should not automatically "knee-jerk" him off your screens...



Sorry, disagree. He is being poofed because of his holier/smarter-than-thou attitude. Does not appear to wanting to learn anything, just wants to tell everyone else how wrong and dumb they are. Any person that has joined less than a month ago with a chip that big on their shoulders is just asking to be run out on a rail. He can't give opinions without dropping the condescending attitude. Without dropping the attitude, well...
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting bappit:

The assertion I object to is that that is the purpose of hurricanes. If that were the purpose, then why is some other phenomenon more effective at accomplishing the transfer of heat to the poles? It is the teleological view that bugs me, like saying invest 93L is a fighter. Or that a system is trying to overcome a dry air intrusion. Sure that creates a nice story line, but no invest or whatever is fighting or trying to do anything. Reminds me of PressLord and humping the ridge.


Read KoritheMan's last post... I think his post is 100% correct. A hurricane is a heat engine, which by definition, is a mechanism of heat transfer. This is entirely the purpose of hurricanes without doubt in my view and in the eyes of most meteorologists.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 825
18Z NOGAPS..

Link
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14674
Quoting bappit:

The assertion I object to is that that is the purpose of hurricanes. If that were the purpose, then why is some other phenomenon more effective at accomplishing the transfer of heat to the poles? It is the teleological view that bugs me, like saying invest 93L is a fighter. Or that a system is trying to overcome a dry air intrusion. Sure that creates a nice story line, but no invest or whatever is fighting or trying to do anything. Reminds me of PressLord and humping the ridge.


Oh yeah i would definately hump that ridge
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916. SLU
The GFS is at it again ..

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Quoting robj144:


Does it matter which is more effective? The statement that hurricanes transfer heat to the poles is still a correct statement.

The assertion I object to is that that is the purpose of hurricanes. If that were the purpose, then why is some other phenomenon more effective at accomplishing the transfer of heat to the poles? It is the teleological view that bugs me, like saying invest 93L is a fighter. Or that a system is trying to overcome a dry air intrusion. Sure that creates a nice story line, but no invest or whatever is fighting or trying to do anything. Reminds me of PressLord and humping the ridge.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
00z ECMWF showed something similar. 12z ECMWF backed off considerably though.


with the wave just coming off Africa well-organized and fitting that timeframe; I see that solution as very plausible
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Quoting deaddude21:

Only named storms wise. I don't see 11 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes between next week and Halloween...with the vast majority in September...we'll see though.
If we do get large numbers, I suspect it'll be at least partially because we continue to see storm formation into NOV...

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21667
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
00z ECMWF showed something similar. 12z ECMWF backed off considerably though.
18z GFS is out to 324 hours right now. Has this system moving over Hispaola, and then this longwave comes right in time to recurve it over the Bahamas before reaching Florida. All about timing. 324 hours below (obviously, this isn't meant to be taking with seriousness).

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
There was a tornado reported in Texas.


Where in TX?
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 682
Quoting JRRP:
192h



Doesn't the ecmwf have a storm somewhere in that neighborhood around that time?
Member Since: June 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1339
Quoting bappit:

lb444 still has a reasonable question. Koritheman is a respected poster. His statements might very well be true, but in this case we have no way of judging whether they are or not.


He is actually one of my best friends and i can assure you he is a very good forecaster... and in regards to respect in the blog everyone should be heard regardless of their "respect" in the blog. I know for one I am not a bad forecaster but I dont post in here nearly as much as i use to back 4 or 5 years ago so people might not take me as seriously as some of the regulars...everyone should have their opinion respected and anyone could be wrong or right at anytime...
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Quoting bappit:

Mid-latitude cyclones are often just as intense as tropical cyclones and are often much larger. They occur more frequently. They occur at all times of the year, over land and water. They are more effective.

But I am repeating myself.



Yes, but my point is that strong winds alone (which is what baroclinic systems provide) aren't enough to transfer heat. Do you see cold fronts cooling ocean temperatures through moist southerly flow? Or do you only experience upwelling in their wake?

Even then, that kind of upwelling isn't the same as taking the heat from one area and depositing it in another.
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Quoting JRRP:
192h

00z ECMWF showed something similar. 12z ECMWF backed off considerably though.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
There was a tornado reported in Texas.



at last some in new for TX
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114792
Quoting islander101010:
this character has been blogging for yrs night shift it knows

lb444 still has a reasonable question. Koritheman is a respected poster. His statements might very well be true, but in this case we have no way of judging whether they are or not.
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There was a tornado reported in Texas.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31603
903. JRRP
192h

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Quoting stormpetrol:
Quoting ackee:
EX 93L nearing 60 W still not organize give it currenT state I am gviing up on EX 93L

I strongly disagree , I think ex93L will be the biggest player of all in about 3-4 days, we here in the western & NW caribbean have to keep a close on it!JMO of course!

yes stormpetrol very true
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
I am making an album blog of past famous and infamous hurricanes and typhoons.If any of you want to add pics,go ahead.

Link


That's neat. Hope you don't mind my entry. :)
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 682
ex 93L 13N/52W
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Quoting islander101010:
this character has been blogging for yrs night shift it knows


In reality i been here longer than him lol ask him he will tell ya ;)
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Quoting bappit:

Mid-latitude cyclones are often just as intense as tropical cyclones and are often much larger. They occur more frequently. They occur at all times of the year, over land and water. They are more effective.

But I am repeating myself.



Does it matter which is more effective? The statement that hurricanes transfer heat to the poles is still a correct statement.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 825


definitely a circulation with ex93L
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Cause I issued forecasts for her. ;)


Lol I gotta go back and look at stuff like that your alot better than me in that regard after a season is over i put it in the past lol...I could bring up a storm from 1895 and you will say "Oh with that one what happened was..." lol your like a human history book
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
29.400N 63.133W

based on recon, that is your center


O_O

That puts her center right under the deepest convection.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31603
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


But, I think she was being sheared a lot more than what Gert is.


Yeah, I guess I should have said the thermodynamic environment was more moist.

However, Shary was also moving fairly quickly, which mitigated the effects of the speed shear. That is probably what allowed her to become a hurricane. High latitude systems are notorious for this.
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Quoting louisianaboy444:


How do you know this c*** lol


Cause I issued forecasts for her. ;)
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Tropical cyclones are much more effective in this endeavor, because they derive their vigor from the latent heat energy of the world's tropical oceans. On the contrary, baroclinic systems derive their energy from temperature and pressure differences, which doesn't make for an effective heat transfer.

Mid-latitude cyclones are often just as intense as tropical cyclones and are often much larger. They occur more frequently. They occur at all times of the year, over land and water. They are more effective.

But I am repeating myself.

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Quoting ackee:
EX 93L nearing 60 W still not organize give it currenT state I am gviing up on EX 93L

I strongly disagree , I think ex93L will be the biggest player of all in about 3-4 days, we here in the western & NW caribbean have to keep a close on it!JMO of course!
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Quoting KoritheMan:


If I'm not mistaken, the environment surrounding Shary was a bit more conducive, as there was no real semblance of dry air. Her satellite presentation definitely wasn't one indicative of dry air intrusion.


But, I think she was being sheared a lot more than what Gert is.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31603
Quoting KoritheMan:


The actual wave axis is actually closer to 45W, as seen here:



old map look at the 18Z

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Quoting KoritheMan:


If I'm not mistaken, the environment surrounding Shary was a bit more conducive, as there was no real semblance of dry air. Her satellite presentation definitely wasn't one indicative of dry air intrusion.
Yes that's right.Gert seems to be getting better organized though.
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Quoting louisianaboy444:


How do you know this c*** lol
this character has been blogging for yrs night shift it knows
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Blog is bringing the lulz this afternoon.





see blog 92L is not has close has you think and you cant tell by looking at some 850mb vort that may have been a part of some in else
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114792
29.400N 63.133W

based on recon, that is your center
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Quoting KoritheMan:


If I'm not mistaken, the environment surrounding Shary was a bit more conducive, as there was no real semblance of dry air. Her satellite presentation definitely wasn't one indicative of dry air intrusion.


How do you know this c*** lol
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Quoting jaxbeachbum:
POOF!!! Your condescending attitude is something else. A lot of people come here to look for valued information, they do not need to see a comment where they should pack up their hurricane supplies. Really?


LOL, dude, even the lurkers are poofing you.... lol

I have to say, we shouldn't poof deaddude... the season will school him as necessary.... and one point he makes is valid; the return time for November hurricanes in the US is pretty high.

His problem is that we then see quite a lot of specious logic and faulty argument in his comments . For example, the fact that we did not see a major hurricane impact the US last year doesn't automatically mean we won't see one this year. Same as always, it's a 1/2 chance; either we do or we don't. Additionally, he is trying to use his point to support the rather... naive... view that only hurricanes that impact the US matter, and that ignoring hurricanes in other parts of the ATL somehow strengthens the US position. Finally, we can tell that he doesn't as yet fully understand the ROLE of the NHC, because he believes that they should only comment on and respond to storms that impact the US - hence his view that the season should end shortly after October. He doesn't recognise the US's role as a leader in the WMO and its commitment to providing accurate and thorough information about tropical cyclones in three tropical basins: the ATL, EPac, and CPac.

But that's why he - and most of the rest of us - are here, right? To learn? And the rest of the bloggers, who don't necessarily agree with him, should not automatically "knee-jerk" him off your screens...

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21667
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
624 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2011

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR EASTERN PENDER COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 630
PM EDT...

AT 620 PM EDT...THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND IS NO LONGER PRODUCING A TORNADO...THUS THE TORNADO WARNING WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE HOLLY SHELTER GAME LAND THROUGH 7 PM.
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Blog is bringing the lulz this afternoon.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting deaddude21:

Or a big spin/more well defined spin...

There is nothing above Hispaniola other than a thunderstorm.


Wow have you ever heard that it split from Gert a few days ago, and it does have good vorticy, get your facts straight.
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Quoting Vincent4989:

that's also made up information.
Link
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Quoting Vincent4989:

that's also made up information.


96L info

not that you deserve this kind of proof, but here
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Quoting j2008:

Need the link to see for yourself??




if he keeps pull this crap am going too give him the poof
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114792
Quoting Vincent4989:

that's also made up information.


No, it isn't. We do have 96L.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31603

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.