Tropical Depression Seven forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:25 PM GMT on August 14, 2011

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The latest in our unusual number of weak tropical cyclones this season, Tropical Depression Seven, has formed to the southeast of Bermuda. Unless you live in Bermuda, TD 7 is not going to be a concern. Radar out of Bermuda shows an area of rain on the northern side of TD 7 beginning to approach the island, and rain from the storm will likely affect the island tonight and on Monday. TD 7 is not well-organized, and has only limited heavy thunderstorms, as seen on visible satellite images. While wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, dry air surrounds TD 7, and is keeping the storm from intensifying. None of the computer models foresee that TD 7 will ever become more than a weak tropical storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of TD 7.

92L
TD 7 isn't the only system Bermuda needs to watch, Invest 92L is a day behind it, and will follow a path very similar to TD 7's. The disturbance will pass close to Bermuda on Tuesday, bringing the island a second round of tropical rains. However, Invest 92L is very disorganized, as seen on recent visible satellite loops. Dry air and close proximity to TD 7 will likely keep 92L from showing significant development over the next two days, with NHC giving the system just a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa we've been tracking over the past few days, Invest 93L, has fallen apart and is no longer a threat to develop. This system will need to be watched once it enters the Caribbean later this week, though. None of the reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone formation predict development of this system or any new disturbances over the coming week.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


It is scary that we are approaching 2005's numbers at this time, IIRC they had 9 systems by now...We have 7.
What is IIRC?
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
You can actually see Bermuda on the Water Vapor imagery, lol. The atmosphere surrounding Gert is moist, and should allow for the system to make a run at the strongest system thus far this season.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32335
Maybe when we talk about active periods, it may not actually be THAT active, maybe due to increaased knowledge and satelittes of increased the num of storms
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
the new two sould be out any time
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115252
Quoting robj144:


Yeah, then wait into you get into grad. school... qualifiers, dissertations, etc. :) Just kidding.


Bring it on :)
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 1352
Quoting deaddude21:
One more thing...people shouldn't automatically assume that a user is new just because his reg date says "2011". It's almost insulting, since most places could tell a regular apart from a newbie. But I understand you guys...even in 2006 you were like no other, even -- often -- your attitude towards me.


Not trying to be rude, but people are having a sucky attitude towards you because of the stupid remarks you have been made such as people should start putting their hurricane preparedness items away after September.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32335
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


It is scary that we are approaching 2005's numbers at this time, IIRC they had 9 systems by now...We have 7.



and AUGS is not done yet


i think we could see at lest 4 too 5 more name storms be for AUGS is done
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115252
Trace of rain is all I could get..we need a TROPICAL downpour to save my yard!
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Quoting louisianaboy444:


Your in high school man just wait college is a whole new ballgame...especially when you get into Calculus, physics, and Linear algebra :)


Yeah, then wait into you get into grad. school... qualifiers, dissertations, etc. :) Just kidding.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 825
Quoting louisianaboy444:


Well when he asked what was the purpose of a drought you have to start thinking about how the longwave patterns that bring rain to certain areas work and if warming of the Earth has maybe change those patterns


The point I've been trying to make is that there is no purpose...it's science. The outcome of a hurricane, via a scientific view, is that they transfer heat. In that sense, that is the "purpose" of a hurricane.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 825
Quoting CycloneUK:


It is scary that we are approaching 2005's numbers at this time, IIRC they had 9 systems by now...We have 7.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32335
Quoting deaddude21:
What about my brain? I maintain a GPA of 4.00...currently ranked #1 in my class of over 600...5-A school no less.

And whatever your views on life are...there should be no denying that the socialistic redistribution of wealth is evil. That is all.

Lastly...I think by now we all know the 250+ hour GFS isn't even worth taking seriously. But it's funny, so keep posting it.


Your in high school man just wait college is a whole new ballgame...especially when you get into Calculus, physics, and Linear algebra :)
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 1352
Quoting CycloneUK:


I like this. Shows the differences between 2010 and 2005 and this year... and average. thanks.
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1006.9 mb
(~ 29.73 inHg)
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115252
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Quoting robj144:


Whether you like it or not, this is how nature works. An earthquake relieves the stress on tectonic plates. Storms transport water from water sources to areas without a direct water source. It's not a conscious decision... it's physics and science.


Well when he asked what was the purpose of a drought you have to start thinking about how the longwave patterns that bring rain to certain areas work and if warming of the Earth has maybe change those patterns
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 1352
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


You know what else is dangerous? This:









Interesting that the Bahamas has the warmest waters in the Atlantic. Approaching 32C-33C. o.O if a Cape-Verde hurricane with an anticyclone over it came over here... NOT pretty.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


We shall see soon.




late tonight we sould see
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115252
Quoting bluenosedave:


I think I get your point. It's like the people who learned at some point that most phenomena are governed by laws of cause and effect, and have translated this into "everything happens for a reason". And what that means to them is that everything happens for a purpose, which means it's all part of some grand preconceived plan of some sort.

BTW, I think it's "pumping the ridge", but I may be mis-remembering.


It's not a purpose... it's physics. Things naturally want to evolve to equilibrium because it's the lowest energy state. One can open a debate on why the universe does this, but nonetheless, it does.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 825
Quoting bluenosedave:


I think I get your point. It's like the people who learned at some point that most phenomena are governed by laws of cause and effect, and have translated this into "everything happens for a reason". And what that means to them is that everything happens for a purpose, which means it's all part of some grand preconceived plan of some sort.

BTW, I think it's "pumping the ridge", but I may be mis-remembering.



You're right, its pumping the ridge.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32335
Quoting Tazmanian:




ouch ex93L sould love that


We shall see soon.
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Quoting bappit:

The assertion I object to is that that is the purpose of hurricanes. If that were the purpose, then why is some other phenomenon more effective at accomplishing the transfer of heat to the poles? It is the teleological view that bugs me, like saying invest 93L is a fighter. Or that a system is trying to overcome a dry air intrusion. Sure that creates a nice story line, but no invest or whatever is fighting or trying to do anything. Reminds me of PressLord and humping the ridge.


I think I get your point. It's like the people who learned at some point that most phenomena are governed by laws of cause and effect, and have translated this into "everything happens for a reason". And what that means to them is that everything happens for a purpose, which means it's all part of some grand preconceived plan of some sort.

BTW, I think it's "pumping the ridge", but I may be mis-remembering.
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Quoting aislinnpaps:


It doesn't have to be a major to do damage. Ask those of us who had Ike and Gustov. Though I understand your point about major.


For all intents and purposes, there is only a categorical difference between a high end Category 2 hurricane (as in Ike's case) and a low end Category 3. Fundamentally, they are the same.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 587 Comments: 20877
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Impressive wave now,but will it meet the fate that 93L has been thru?

Possibly. But if it were to have the same fate as 93L, that's just a bigger problem for the Caribbean down the road.
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Quoting deaddude21:

After Epsilon, yes. And then people realized that storms like that are twice-per-century anomalies.
LOL... I think Epsilon was just the straw.... there'd been a few Dec storms in the previous 5-7 seasons.... made pple think there was going to be a shift....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22357
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


You know what else is dangerous? This:











ouch ex93L sould love that
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115252
Quoting JRRP:

yeap.. very dangerous position


You know what else is dangerous? This:







Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32335
945. JLPR2

It seems here we go again.
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Quoting bappit:

Oh, jeepers. It mainly transports heat vertically. The air coming out the top can go in any direction. Also, the upwelling is accompanied by downwelling. The strong winds mix the surface water. I'm sure the same thing occurs in strong mid-latitude cyclones.

Now can you tell me what the purpose of a drought is?


Whether you like it or not, this is how nature works. An earthquake relieves the stress on tectonic plates. Storms transport water from water sources to areas without a direct water source. It's not a conscious decision... it's physics and science.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 825
943. JRRP
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I agree, and it does develop the AEW emerging right now.

Notice how it develops though. Very weak low pressure area that remains below 15˚N as it treks westward. As soon as it reaches 55˚W, it becomes a tropical cyclone.

This is the same scenario that is very possible to occur with 93L considering the relatively favorable atmospheric conditions that await the system in the eastern Caribbean. Definitely an ominous pattern setting up as we head into the heat of the season.

yeap.. very dangerous position
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Quoting robert88:
The last major hurricane to hit the US was on 10/24/05...it's been a while


It doesn't have to be a major to do damage. Ask those of us who had Ike and Gustov. Though I understand your point about major.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
41 knots, SFMR.


Alright, so they will leave Gert at 45 MPH for the 8PM Intermediate Adivsory.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32335
Quoting Neapolitan:

The ridge is forecast to rebuild and stick around for a while longer; Dallas, Wichita Falls, Waco, and Austin are forecast to be back in the 100s all of the coming week.

On a somewhat related note, some long-range forecasts are calling for a heavy-duty heat wave for the northeast a few weeks from now; it remains to be seen whether that will pan out, of course...
There are Isolated Storms 30 miles Northeast of me, not moving but that does not help my 105. Come on tropical anything into Texas, I will take 3 waves and a clap.
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Quoting bohonkweatherman:
I know there a few areas of Texas that got a little relief but is there any hope in our near Future. 105 again today and 100 or great since June 26th here, this is getting really old, only difference i have seen in the past 2 weeks is increased humidity and much higher heat indexes but other than that my weather this year has stayed the same, Bone Dry.


The 10-15 day GFS has shown below normal 500 mb heights (lower pressure) across almost all of Texas for the last several days. Maybe it'll pan out.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 587 Comments: 20877
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
What is the strongest, accurate wind speed that the hurricane hunters found in Gert?

41 knots, SFMR.
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Quoting louisianaboy444:


Yes he is right. The way a Hurricane is a heat engine is because it is constantly replenishing itself... Evaporation off the warm water cools the column of air and makes the air more unstable..as the parcel rises it gets gets cooler and cooler until it condensates all the water out of itself which is a warming process and the whole cycle repeats again..so yes the atmosphere always tries to be in what we call equilibrium but it never will this is the reason that air rushes in and converges towards low pressure centers and the reason warm ocean currents are always trying to bring warm waters to the poles and vice versa


To state it a little more directly, a heat engine extracts work (winds) from a hot reservoir (ocean) and is exhausts into a cooler reservoir (outflow).
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 825
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I agree, and it does develop the AEW emerging right now.

Notice how it develops though. Very weak low pressure area that remains below 15˚N as it treks westward. As soon as it reaches 55˚W, it becomes a tropical cyclone.

This is the same scenario that is very possible to occur with 93L considering the relatively favorable atmospheric conditions that await the system in the eastern Caribbean. Definitely an ominous pattern setting up as we head into the heat of the season.


Impressive wave now,but will it meet the fate that 93L has been thru?

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14407
Quoting HCW:


Newton ,TX 10 miles north of Orange Brief Touchdown


Ok. Thank you. Just to my north. I've got kids in different towns around here. I appreciate that. :)
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What is the strongest, accurate wind speed that the hurricane hunters found in Gert?

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32335
Quoting deaddude21:

I don't wish it on any of those countries.....[snip]
This isn't about wishing it on somebody. This is about facts. You said pple could put away their hurricane kits in October, and the reality is, that's just not true. There has been sufficient incidence of hurricane strikes in the US to justify a Nov 30 close date there. Since the NHC has responsibility for more than just the US in this basin, as well as a responsibility to keep a thorough record as a part of the WMO, there is much greater justification for the current season end date. Because this blog caters to and is frequented by more than just US residents, your comment becomes even more egregiously inaccurate. Supporting with US specific data implies you are either unaware of or unwilling to accept the reality of the composition of the ATL basin.

In your mind you have to separate between your social / political views, to which you are welcome, and the science of weather, such as it is. We're pretty tolerant here, and generally can agree to disagree about political views [which is one reason why politics gets [-]ed here - it's a real hot-button topic]. However, people are not particularly supportive of arrogant attitudes which also express intolerance and ego/ethnocentrism.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22357
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
I know there a few areas of Texas that got a little relief but is there any hope in our near Future. 105 again today and 100 or great since June 26th here, this is getting really old, only difference i have seen in the past 2 weeks is increased humidity and much higher heat indexes but other than that my weather this year has stayed the same, Bone Dry.

The ridge is forecast to rebuild and stick around for a while longer; Dallas, Wichita Falls, Waco, and Austin are forecast to be back in the 100s all of the coming week.

On a somewhat related note, some long-range forecasts are calling for a heavy-duty heat wave for the northeast a few weeks from now; it remains to be seen whether that will pan out, of course...
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Quoting robj144:


Read KoritheMan's last post... I think his post is 100% correct. A hurricane is a heat engine, which by definition, is a mechanism of heat transfer. This is entirely the purpose of hurricanes without doubt in my view and in the eyes of most meteorologists.

Oh, jeepers. It mainly transports heat vertically. The air coming out the top can go in any direction. Also, the upwelling is accompanied by downwelling. The strong winds mix the surface water. I'm sure the same thing occurs in strong mid-latitude cyclones.

Now can you tell me what the purpose of a drought is?
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The last major hurricane to hit the US was on 10/24/05...it's been a while
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929. j2008
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I agree, and it does develop the AEW emerging right now.

Notice how it develops though. Very weak low pressure area that remains below 15˚N as it treks westward. As soon as it reaches 55˚W, it becomes a tropical cyclone.

This is the same scenario that is very possible to occur with 93L considering the relatively favorable atmospheric conditions that await the system in the eastern Caribbean. Definitely an ominous pattern setting up as we head into the heat of the season.

Definatly very scary..... I dont like the way its setting up. I know I've said that alot but its still got that feeling.
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Quoting robj144:


Read KoritheMan's last post... I think his post is 100% correct. A hurricane is a heat engine, which by definition, is a mechanism of heat transfer. This is entirely the purpose of hurricanes without doubt in my view and in the eyes of most meteorologists.


Yes he is right. The way a Hurricane is a heat engine is because it is constantly replenishing itself... Evaporation off the warm water cools the column of air and makes the air more unstable..as the parcel rises it gets gets cooler and cooler until it condensates all the water out of itself which is a warming process and the whole cycle repeats again..so yes the atmosphere always tries to be in what we call equilibrium but it never will this is the reason that air rushes in and converges towards low pressure centers and the reason warm ocean currents are always trying to bring warm waters to the poles and vice versa
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 1352
Quoting PcolaDan:


Sorry, disagree. He is being poofed because of his holier/smarter-than-thou attitude. Does not appear to wanting to learn anything, just wants to tell everyone else how wrong and dumb they are. Any person that has joined less than a month ago with a chip that big on their shoulders is just asking to be run out on a rail. He can't give opinions without dropping the condescending attitude. Without dropping the attitude, well...


agreed
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I see your points and agree, he did make some valid arguments. I also know the bloggers I choose to follow, you being one of them. Trust me, that wasn't a knee jerk reaction. I have four kids, two of them teenagers, so I can handle pretty much everything that spews from the mouth. Yes, he has a LOT of learning to do. Hopefully, he sits back, reads and learns.

I really do enjoy reading most everyone's comments, the sarcasm and humor that comes from this blog.

Back to lurking


Quoting BahaHurican:
LOL, dude, even the lurkers are poofing you.... lol

I have to say, we shouldn't poof deaddude... the season will school him as necessary.... and one point he makes is valid; the return time for November hurricanes in the US is pretty high.

His problem is that we then see quite a lot of specious logic and faulty argument in his comments . For example, the fact that we did not see a major hurricane impact the US last year doesn't automatically mean we won't see one this year. Same as always, it's a 1/2 chance; either we do or we don't. Additionally, he is trying to use his point to support the rather... naive... view that only hurricanes that impact the US matter, and that ignoring hurricanes in other parts of the ATL somehow strengthens the US position. Finally, we can tell that he doesn't as yet fully understand the ROLE of the NHC, because he believes that they should only comment on and respond to storms that impact the US - hence his view that the season should end shortly after October. He doesn't recognise the US's role as a leader in the WMO and its commitment to providing accurate and thorough information about tropical cyclones in three tropical basins: the ATL, EPac, and CPac.

But that's why he - and most of the rest of us - are here, right? To learn? And the rest of the bloggers, who don't necessarily agree with him, should not automatically "knee-jerk" him off your screens...

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925. HCW
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Where in TX?


Newton ,TX 10 miles north of Orange Brief Touchdown
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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