Tropical Depression Seven forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:25 PM GMT on August 14, 2011

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The latest in our unusual number of weak tropical cyclones this season, Tropical Depression Seven, has formed to the southeast of Bermuda. Unless you live in Bermuda, TD 7 is not going to be a concern. Radar out of Bermuda shows an area of rain on the northern side of TD 7 beginning to approach the island, and rain from the storm will likely affect the island tonight and on Monday. TD 7 is not well-organized, and has only limited heavy thunderstorms, as seen on visible satellite images. While wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, dry air surrounds TD 7, and is keeping the storm from intensifying. None of the computer models foresee that TD 7 will ever become more than a weak tropical storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of TD 7.

92L
TD 7 isn't the only system Bermuda needs to watch, Invest 92L is a day behind it, and will follow a path very similar to TD 7's. The disturbance will pass close to Bermuda on Tuesday, bringing the island a second round of tropical rains. However, Invest 92L is very disorganized, as seen on recent visible satellite loops. Dry air and close proximity to TD 7 will likely keep 92L from showing significant development over the next two days, with NHC giving the system just a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa we've been tracking over the past few days, Invest 93L, has fallen apart and is no longer a threat to develop. This system will need to be watched once it enters the Caribbean later this week, though. None of the reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone formation predict development of this system or any new disturbances over the coming week.

Jeff Masters

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1025. angiest
Just got back home from north of Dallas. It actually rained a little on the way back, but so far nothing at home, it seems. I will be getting some pictures taken from the Lake Somerville Dam posted shortly. The Lake is probably below 50% by now (it was just under 52% a week ago, and dropping about 1.5%-3.0%/week lately.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I remember the morning of my huge Physics final my car froze over and i was trying to pour water on it to go to school and i had spent all night studying...yeah that was not fun
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 1352
are we talking about ex 93L?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
1022. robj144
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

I've never seen or felt snow...


You're missing out... go to the northeast during a Nor'easter sometime. I do recommend shoveling a driveway and scraping the ice off someone's car. So much fun.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 825
Quoting CybrTeddy:
NOGAPS agrees with the GFS on a new system near the islands. However, as we saw with 93L we cannot take them for stalk unless every single model is onboard and consistent.
Link


And even then you cant take it serious lol
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 1352
Quoting CybrTeddy:
00z ECMWF developed this into a hurricane, but has dropped. The 18z GFS is now developing this into a hurricane.


Models have to latch on one system and be consistent for a few runs to then be credible.Let's see if they are consistent from now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Intellect and wisdom are not to be confused.


And GPA and intelligence are not directly proportionate.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting Tazmanian:



snow snow snow i love snow

I've never seen or felt snow...
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
NOGAPS agrees with the GFS on a new system near the islands. However, as we saw with 93L we cannot take them for stalk unless every single model is onboard and consistent.
Link
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24552
1016. robj144
Quoting louisianaboy444:


I know i was being Sarcastic lol


Sorry...sarcasm never comes through here. I myself have tried a number of times with no luck. :)
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 825
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


It has a fair amount of rotation according to that image. Can tell that without even having to have it animated, lol.



for that storm 92 ex93 grat or 96L?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
Baha....I hope your doing well.....its good to see you...
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Quoting PcolaDan:


Is it your avatars lost pet? ;)

LOL
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
Quoting robj144:


Nope...it's No S___ (don't want to get in trouble).


I know i was being Sarcastic lol
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 1352
Quoting presslord:
Snow is evil...it is of Satan...please do not even speak of it...


Snowalina?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32710
Quoting louisianaboy444:


WTH dude didnt La Nina just happen why is it back already ugh lol


*sigh*

I'm deeply distressed by the prospect too, dude. This heat has worn out its welcome, to be quite honest.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 601 Comments: 21230
Quoting louisianaboy444:
EHIA...Everything Here Is Abbreviated
Yeah no kidding, I thought it was something like ITCZ, or something to do with the Indian Ocean or Rapid Intensification.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting presslord:
Snow is evil...it is of Satan...please do not even speak of it...



snow snow snow i love snow
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
I see HAARP & the Gates' Ice Ships are still hard at work. Any takers on the 60 hr front tailend GOM TS???
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
00z ECMWF developed this into a hurricane, but has dropped. The 18z GFS is now developing this into a hurricane.


It has a fair amount of rotation according to that image. Can tell that without even having to have it animated, lol.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32710
1006.1 mb
(~ 29.71 inHg)
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
1004. robj144
Quoting louisianaboy444:


Non-Smoker?


Nope...it's No S___ (don't want to get in trouble).
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 825
Quoting deaddude21:
The wave coming off Africa...is two weeks away.
Which gives us 2 weeks to watch it.... lol

Quoting PcolaDan:


Sorry, disagree. He is being poofed because of his holier/smarter-than-thou attitude. Does not appear to wanting to learn anything, just wants to tell everyone else how wrong and dumb they are. Any person that has joined less than a month ago with a chip that big on their shoulders is just asking to be run out on a rail. He can't give opinions without dropping the condescending attitude. Without dropping the attitude, well...
One hundred percent agree with the bolded part. I said:

And the rest of the bloggers, who don't necessarily agree with him, should not automatically "knee-jerk" him off your screens...

i.e. we should all be big enough to "agree to disagree" as it were, on the weather. OTOH, if you can't stand his attitude, you are well within your rights to poof at will.

I disagree that he's not wanting to learn anything. He just thinks that being arrogant about things will make him "fit in" and be quickly accepted. So he's gotta be schooled. I guess I give him a little credit because he conducted himself in a lot more reasonable manner yesterday. [shrugs] If he can lose the immature attitude, I think he has potential. But we'll see if he lasts that long.

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1001. PcolaDan
11:26 PM GMT on August 14, 2011
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Your avatar...it's hilarious.


Is it your avatars lost pet? ;)
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
1000. bluenosedave
11:26 PM GMT on August 14, 2011
Quoting robj144:


It's not a purpose... it's physics. Things naturally want to evolve to equilibrium because it's the lowest energy state. One can open a debate on why the universe does this, but nonetheless, it does.


I agree, it's physics. No purpose involved.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 369
999. ShenValleyFlyFish
11:26 PM GMT on August 14, 2011
Quoting deaddude21:
What about my brain? I maintain a GPA of 4.00...currently ranked #1 in my class of over 600...5-A school no less.

And whatever your views on life are...there should be no denying that the socialistic redistribution of wealth is evil. That is all.

Lastly...I think by now we all know the 250+ hour GFS isn't even worth taking seriously. But it's funny, so keep posting it.
Intellect and wisdom are not to be confused.
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
998. bappit
11:26 PM GMT on August 14, 2011
Interesting morsel from Wikipedia.

Huracan (also Hurakan, Harakan and Jurakan), in Mayan understandable as Jun Raqan "one legged", often referred to as U K'ux Kaj 'Heart of Sky')[1] was a K'iche' Mayan god of wind, storm, fire and one of the creator deities who participated in all three attempts at creating humanity.[2] He also caused the Great Flood after the second generation of humans angered the gods. He supposedly lived in the windy mists above the floodwaters and repeatedly invoked "earth" until land came up from the seas.

In modern day mythology, Huracan is the heat mover god, god of heat engines.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6147
997. louisianaboy444
11:25 PM GMT on August 14, 2011
Quoting robj144:


NS!!! (You figure that one out.) :)


Non-Smoker?
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 1352
996. JRRP
11:25 PM GMT on August 14, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


You know what else is dangerous? This:








wepa!!
high TCHP
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6212
995. CybrTeddy
11:25 PM GMT on August 14, 2011
00z ECMWF developed this into a hurricane, but has dropped. The 18z GFS is now developing this into a hurricane.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24552
994. HurricaneSwirl
11:25 PM GMT on August 14, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Probably not, since we should be trending back towards La Nia in the coming months. El Nio is always better for southern Snow.


Which ticks me the heck off. Everyone said earlier this year that this upcoming winter would be an El Nino one. And now the ENSO has done a freaking 180 and is heading back into La Nina land. /whiny rant

Oh well. I should be grateful we've gotten snow 3 years in a row in Macon, GA.. And who knows. Last winter was a La Nina winter and a blocking pattern apparently associated with the NAO resulted in about an inch for me (plus .5 inch of ice) and about 7 or so inches for suburbs of Atlanta.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
993. louisianaboy444
11:25 PM GMT on August 14, 2011
Quoting KoritheMan:


With La Nina returning, I doubt it, unfortunately.


WTH dude didnt La Nina just happen why is it back already ugh lol
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 1352
992. robj144
11:24 PM GMT on August 14, 2011
Quoting louisianaboy444:
EHIA...Everything Here Is Abbreviated


NS!!! (You figure that one out.) :)
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 825
991. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:24 PM GMT on August 14, 2011
Quoting louisianaboy444:
EHIA...Everything Here Is Abbreviated


IKR. (I know Right)

lol.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32710
990. Dennis8
11:24 PM GMT on August 14, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Probably not, since we should be trending back towards La Niña in the coming months. El Niño is always better for southern Snow.



Southern snows are freaks of nature and I have lived here for 49 years....I have been in the Christmas Eve snow of 2004 in Corpus Christi 5". I would not try to predict snow in the south. It snows when it snows. JUST like these tropical storms do what they do despite our in depth analysis. MOTHER NATURE
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 446
989. GTcooliebai
11:24 PM GMT on August 14, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


If I Remember Correctly.
Oh :P LOL, I thought it was a tropical acronym. thanks.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
988. rv1pop
11:24 PM GMT on August 14, 2011
Quoting Tazmanian:




if he keeps pull this crap am going too give him the poof
already did why the quoting?
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 191
987. KoritheMan
11:24 PM GMT on August 14, 2011
Quoting louisianaboy444:
Who knows maybe this winter?


With La Nina returning, I doubt it, unfortunately.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 601 Comments: 21230
986. louisianaboy444
11:23 PM GMT on August 14, 2011
EHIA...Everything Here Is Abbreviated
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 1352
985. KoritheMan
11:23 PM GMT on August 14, 2011
Quoting GTcooliebai:
What is IIRC?


If I recall correctly.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 601 Comments: 21230
983. WeatherNerdPR
11:23 PM GMT on August 14, 2011
Quoting PcolaDan:


I see you don't learn from past errors in judgement do you.

Your avatar...it's hilarious.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
982. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:22 PM GMT on August 14, 2011
Quoting PcolaDan:


I see you don't learn from past errors in judgement do you.


That Dog seems to be having fun.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32710
980. PcolaDan
11:22 PM GMT on August 14, 2011
Quoting deaddude21:
One more thing...people shouldn't automatically assume that a user is new just because his reg date says "2011". It's almost insulting, since most places could tell a regular apart from a newbie. But I understand you guys...even in 2006 you were like no other, even -- often -- your attitude towards me.


I see you don't learn from past errors in judgement do you.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
979. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:22 PM GMT on August 14, 2011
Quoting louisianaboy444:
Really off topic but to get people in the Winter/Snow mood i was reading up on the Gulf Coast snow storm of 1895 the other day...Galveston received i think 19 inches of snow with areas near Lake Charles getting an unconfirmed amount of 30+ inches! Rayne, Louisiana seen 24 inches which is still a state record and it went all the way to the Florida Panhandle...I would die to see something like that again..Who knows maybe this winter?


Probably not, since we should be trending back towards La Niña in the coming months. El Niño is always better for southern Snow.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32710
978. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:21 PM GMT on August 14, 2011
Quoting GTcooliebai:
What is IIRC?


If I Remember Correctly.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32710
977. louisianaboy444
11:20 PM GMT on August 14, 2011
Really off topic but to get people in the Winter/Snow mood i was reading up on the Gulf Coast snow storm of 1895 the other day...Galveston received i think 19 inches of snow with areas near Lake Charles getting an unconfirmed amount of 30+ inches! Rayne, Louisiana seen 24 inches which is still a state record and it went all the way to the Florida Panhandle...I would die to see something like that again..Who knows maybe this winter?
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 1352
976. AtHomeInTX
11:20 PM GMT on August 14, 2011
Quoting Thrawst:


Interesting that the Bahamas has the warmest waters in the Atlantic. Approaching 32C-33C. o.O if a Cape-Verde hurricane with an anticyclone over it came over here... NOT pretty.


Yeah the waters off the coast here is insanely hot. But they're not deep. Some said that could weaken an approaching storm. I don't know. Humberto fed off it like crazy.

Coastal Marine Forecast
Posted: Jan 20, 2010 12:48 PM CST Updated: Aug 13, 2011 4:54 PM CDT

Sunday's Forecast

Winds: W 5 -10 Knots

Seas: 1-2 Feet
State: Mostly Smooth

Current Water Temperature: 90 Degrees

Sabine Pass Tides - Sunday 8/14/2011
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
975. GTcooliebai
11:20 PM GMT on August 14, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


It is scary that we are approaching 2005's numbers at this time, IIRC they had 9 systems by now...We have 7.
What is IIRC?
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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