Tropical Depression Seven forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:25 PM GMT on August 14, 2011

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The latest in our unusual number of weak tropical cyclones this season, Tropical Depression Seven, has formed to the southeast of Bermuda. Unless you live in Bermuda, TD 7 is not going to be a concern. Radar out of Bermuda shows an area of rain on the northern side of TD 7 beginning to approach the island, and rain from the storm will likely affect the island tonight and on Monday. TD 7 is not well-organized, and has only limited heavy thunderstorms, as seen on visible satellite images. While wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, dry air surrounds TD 7, and is keeping the storm from intensifying. None of the computer models foresee that TD 7 will ever become more than a weak tropical storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of TD 7.

92L
TD 7 isn't the only system Bermuda needs to watch, Invest 92L is a day behind it, and will follow a path very similar to TD 7's. The disturbance will pass close to Bermuda on Tuesday, bringing the island a second round of tropical rains. However, Invest 92L is very disorganized, as seen on recent visible satellite loops. Dry air and close proximity to TD 7 will likely keep 92L from showing significant development over the next two days, with NHC giving the system just a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa we've been tracking over the past few days, Invest 93L, has fallen apart and is no longer a threat to develop. This system will need to be watched once it enters the Caribbean later this week, though. None of the reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone formation predict development of this system or any new disturbances over the coming week.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting deaddude21:

Once again, it's fascism to think that "different opinion" translates into an objective "error". Not calling you a fascist, but that's one major principle of fascism, or dictatorship. The "pulverize the Eiffel towers who criticize your government, kill all the idiots that don't agree" mentality.


Okay. I will use simpler terms. You did not learn in 2006 (if in fact you were here) that categorizing anyone who disagrees with you (fascism) while categorically dismissing what others believe to be true because you think you are the most knowledgeable person on the subject (look up hypocrisy,) convinces people that you know what you are talking about. Yet you don't understand why others don't want to have a discussion with you.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
000
ABNT20 KNHC 142342
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GERT...LOCATED ABOUT 215 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT
THE SYSTEM STILL DOES NOT HAVE A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION...AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ONLY MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE
ITS PROXIMITY TO TROPICAL STORM GERT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM GERT ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2. FORECAST/ADVISORIES
ON TROPICAL STORM GERT ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115244
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GERT...LOCATED ABOUT 215 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT
THE SYSTEM STILL DOES NOT HAVE A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION...AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ONLY MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE
ITS PROXIMITY TO TROPICAL STORM GERT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM GERT ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2. FORECAST/ADVISORIES
ON TROPICAL STORM GERT ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1072. wn1995
NHC didn't even mention 96l haha!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ncstorm:


Look at the last frame coming off Africa..already a TS..whoa!


can you post it? TIA
Member Since: June 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1349
Quoting Tazmanian:




see post 1041


ok thanks. another one up there :-Z looks like some weather pattern change globally.
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Wow...No mention on 96L? Seriously?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32286
1067. JLPR2
Quoting wn1995:


It was impressive earlier! They made it an invest a little late, lol!


Yes, when it had convection it looked decently impressive.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8735
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GERT...LOCATED ABOUT 215 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT
THE SYSTEM STILL DOES NOT HAVE A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION...AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ONLY MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE
ITS PROXIMITY TO TROPICAL STORM GERT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM GERT ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2. FORECAST/ADVISORIES
ON TROPICAL STORM GERT ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32286
1065. robj144
Post 1061.. don't think he saw that.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 825
Quoting donna1960ruled:
Any word on Emily? I miss her.

I heard she died due to cold front absorption. But Gert is her daughter.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

I'd imagine what would people think if it snowed in PR lol.


It has in the mountains, once didn't stick 39 degrees
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Ex93L still has a chance...



Are my eyes deceiving me 5 knot wind shear in the caribbean!



Don't give up on ex93L yet!




the 2nd map is not a wind shear map


this is


Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115244
Ex93L still has a chance...



Are my eyes deceiving me 5 knot wind shear in the caribbean!



Don't give up on ex93L yet!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting P451:
Storm in the Mid Atlantic/North East





That thing is so annoying. We still have to wait for it to clear the coast or where ever its going and it's just been sitting in Ohio all day. It hasn't stopped raining here across NY. Over 10 inches across parts of the NYC metro area. Link
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Quoting JLPR2:
96L not impressive at all.


I disagree.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32286
Quoting JLPR2:
96L not impressive at all.



so ture will find out what the nhc says in a few sac
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115244
1055. wn1995
Quoting JLPR2:
96L not impressive at all.


It was impressive earlier! They made it an invest a little late, lol!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting robj144:


I would LOVE to see snow in South FLA. I think most people would think it was the end of the world. It would be amusing.

I'd imagine what would people think if it snowed in PR lol.
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1052. JLPR2
96L not impressive at all.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8735
Quoting AllStar17:


Really? I thought it was north of Bermuda.


Oh, never mind, I'm completely wrong.
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1050. robj144
Quoting deaddude21:
It never snows here in San Antonio...we get 5-10 freezing rain days every winter though. Headache for commuters. They even cancelled school once last year.


I would LOVE to see snow in South FLA. I think most people would think it was the end of the world. It would be amusing.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 825
Quoting P451:
Storm in the Mid Atlantic/North East





Looks cool.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32286
Quoting WeatherfanPR:



and where ?




see post 1041
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115244
Quoting BahaHurican:
Which gives us 2 weeks to watch it.... lol

One hundred percent agree with the bolded part. I said:

And the rest of the bloggers, who don't necessarily agree with him, should not automatically "knee-jerk" him off your screens...

i.e. we should all be big enough to "agree to disagree" as it were, on the weather. OTOH, if you can't stand his attitude, you are well within your rights to poof at will.

I disagree that he's not wanting to learn anything. He just thinks that being arrogant about things will make him "fit in" and be quickly accepted. So he's gotta be schooled. I guess I give him a little credit because he conducted himself in a lot more reasonable manner yesterday. [shrugs] If he can lose the immature attitude, I think he has potential. But we'll see if he lasts that long.



He's on my ignore list and I reported him I feel that I'm on this site to learn and he's prohibiting it so that's what. I did
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1043. ncstorm
Quoting CybrTeddy:
NOGAPS agrees with the GFS on a new system near the islands. However, as we saw with 93L we cannot take them for stalk unless every single model is onboard and consistent.
Link


Look at the last frame coming off Africa..already a TS..whoa!
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15699
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GERT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072011
800 PM AST SUN AUG 14 2011

...GERT EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR BERMUDA ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 63.2W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32286
Quoting AllStar17:


Really? I thought it was north of Bermuda.



96L is north of Bermuda.



the new two sould be out any time now
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115244
Quoting Tazmanian:



96L is not N of Hispaniola



and where ?
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Yeah, that makes me feel better, XD


LOL.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32286
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Just north of Hispaniola.


Really? I thought it was north of Bermuda.
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Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Just north of Hispaniola.


No, to the north of Bermuda.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32286
And again this is really off-topic so please nobody report but is anyone on here into gaming? I have COD Black Ops and i'm looking for new people to play with...my gamertag is eyetothesky25 yeah i know real fitting right?! Lol add me if yall like
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 1352
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Just north of Hispaniola.



96L is not N of Hispaniola
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115244
Quoting deaddude21:

Once again, it's fascism to think that "different opinion" translates into an objective "error". Not calling you a fascist, but that's one major principle of fascism, or dictatorship. The "pulverize the Eiffel towers who criticize your government, kill all the idiots that don't agree" mentality.
Please define your terms. A Fascist? This relates to weather?
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Quoting WeatherfanPR:
96L ? where ?


Just north of Hispaniola.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


You've never seen or felt snow?!?!?!?!?!?!


You can't have happiness without snow.

Yeah, that makes me feel better, XD
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96L ? where ?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


You've never seen or felt snow?!?!?!?!?!?!


You can't have happiness without snow.


Yeah! For me if Hurricane season becomes dull the fun doesn't stop after Nov. 30th Thats when i start snowcasting! :)
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 1352
Quoting jaxbeachbum:
I see your points and agree, he did make some valid arguments. I also know the bloggers I choose to follow, you being one of them. Trust me, that wasn't a knee jerk reaction. I have four kids, two of them teenagers, so I can handle pretty much everything that spews from the mouth. Yes, he has a LOT of learning to do. Hopefully, he sits back, reads and learns.

I really do enjoy reading most everyone's comments, the sarcasm and humor that comes from this blog.

Back to lurking


Jax, the fact that YOU poofed him is what got my attention... lol it was like [go to corner and THINK about what you just said].... lol

I think we sometimes get a knee-jerk reaction after wading through masses of genuine trolls, who will likely be out in numbers once things get going in the next 5-10 days. Annoying as this kid has been today, I think his interest in weather is genuine. I haven't poofed him myself - YET.... lol
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22322
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

I've never seen or felt snow...


You've never seen or felt snow?!?!?!?!?!?!


You can't have happiness without snow.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32286
1025. angiest
Just got back home from north of Dallas. It actually rained a little on the way back, but so far nothing at home, it seems. I will be getting some pictures taken from the Lake Somerville Dam posted shortly. The Lake is probably below 50% by now (it was just under 52% a week ago, and dropping about 1.5%-3.0%/week lately.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.