Tropical Depression Seven forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:25 PM GMT on August 14, 2011

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The latest in our unusual number of weak tropical cyclones this season, Tropical Depression Seven, has formed to the southeast of Bermuda. Unless you live in Bermuda, TD 7 is not going to be a concern. Radar out of Bermuda shows an area of rain on the northern side of TD 7 beginning to approach the island, and rain from the storm will likely affect the island tonight and on Monday. TD 7 is not well-organized, and has only limited heavy thunderstorms, as seen on visible satellite images. While wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, dry air surrounds TD 7, and is keeping the storm from intensifying. None of the computer models foresee that TD 7 will ever become more than a weak tropical storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of TD 7.

92L
TD 7 isn't the only system Bermuda needs to watch, Invest 92L is a day behind it, and will follow a path very similar to TD 7's. The disturbance will pass close to Bermuda on Tuesday, bringing the island a second round of tropical rains. However, Invest 92L is very disorganized, as seen on recent visible satellite loops. Dry air and close proximity to TD 7 will likely keep 92L from showing significant development over the next two days, with NHC giving the system just a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa we've been tracking over the past few days, Invest 93L, has fallen apart and is no longer a threat to develop. This system will need to be watched once it enters the Caribbean later this week, though. None of the reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone formation predict development of this system or any new disturbances over the coming week.

Jeff Masters

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1125. Thrawst
Quoting Tazmanian:
\



no it was not a wind shear ma that map it posted was a Shear Tendency map it shows how high and how low the wind shear has been in the last 24hrs and its all so show where the wind shear been Incrasing and dectrasing



some of you guys need too larn your maps be for posting them


I'm not trying to be mean or anything, but I have no idea what you just said... lol.
I understand that it shows a differential in the amount of windshear over a region over a period of 24 hours, but the spelling makes my head spin lol. I respect you though... you obviously have a great interest in the tropics! :-)
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Quoting weatherh98:


I think theres a misunderstanding ik what you mean



nevere mine plzs whats move on
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114721
Quoting Tazmanian:



plzs look at post 1101


I think theres a misunderstanding ik what you mean
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I remember reading, and I don't know the year, in the 70's I believe, that there were flurries in Miami but the interesting part is that it got cold enough that the iguanas were falling out of trees.


Quoting robj144:


I would LOVE to see snow in South FLA. I think most people would think it was the end of the world. It would be amusing.
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in terms of 92l its life depends on how fast tropical storm Gert turns northeastwards and when or if 92l turns north
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Quoting weatherh98:


It's a type of wind shear map is it not



plzs look at post 1101
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114721
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

What a lucky guy.


Yes ik
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1113. JLPR2
Quoting bwi:
I realize NAM isn't designed for tropical cyclone prediction, but it isn't hesitating about depicting a low chugging through the Caribbean. Not going to take my eyes off that area for a while.



Even though the NAM model isn't great with cyclogenesis it did see 94L developing into Gert before any other model, so I say, lets give credit where it is due. XD
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1112. Thrawst
Quoting BahaHurican:
Can we, like, NOT go there? I'm trying to sleep at night. And buy a battery operated fan ASAP.


Hahaha. Just enjoy it right now! Had some good lightning shows past couple of nights! :)
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Quoting deaddude21:

You have it all backwards...you were the one telling me I was objectively wrong and need to grow up because I have an opinion. Those are the kinds of cancerous politicians.


Feel free to go back and find where I said you were objectively wrong and needed to grow up because you have an opinion. And no, I have gone back and changed anything. The original posts are still there.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
\



no it was not a wind shear ma that map it posted was a Shear Tendency map it shows how high and how low the wind shear has been in the last 24hrs and its all so show where the wind shear been Incrasing and dectrasing



some of you guys need too larn your maps be for posting them


It's a type of wind shear map is it not
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Quoting bwi:
I realize NAM isn't designed for tropical cyclone prediction, but it isn't hesitating about depicting a low chugging through the Caribbean. Not going to take my eyes off that area for a while.



Agreed.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 553 Comments: 19915
in the mean time

the E PAC


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN AUG 14 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

ALTHOUGH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS MINIMAL IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1425 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME BETTER
DEFINED DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...AND
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD STILL FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR
10 TO 15 MPH.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY
FAVORABLE...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS STILL
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH.

A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUATEMALA. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 TO 15
MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114721
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Yeah I saw that Taz, should've clarified it, thanks for pointing it out, it does however show decreasing shear ahead.




welcome
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114721
Quoting weatherh98:


Had a guy from pr who live there his whole life and was there and it snowed

What a lucky guy.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


You've never seen or felt snow?!?!?!?!?!?!


You can't have happiness without snow.
'S what I thought about that exotic item... [darkly] until I had to LIVE with it.... tropics or nothing, man.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21485
1102. bwi
I realize NAM isn't designed for tropical cyclone prediction, but it isn't hesitating about depicting a low chugging through the Caribbean. Not going to take my eyes off that area for a while.

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Quoting Tazmanian:
\



no it was not a wind shear ma that map it posted was a Shear Tendency map it shows how high and how low the wind shear has been in the last 24hrs and its all so show where the wind shear been Incrasing and dectrasing



some of you guys need too larn your maps be for posting them
Yeah I saw that Taz, should've clarified it, thanks for pointing it out, it does however show decreasing shear ahead.
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Quoting presslord:
Baha....I hope you're doing well.....it's good to see you...
I wish you guys would stop making me laugh.... lol

How was the airport? I really felt your pain, though I didn't get to enjoy the remedy you had for it...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21485
Quoting extreme236:
96L might just be an area their privately watching. Not likely to develop.


Not tropical
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


You've never seen or felt snow?!?!?!?!?!?!


You can't have happiness without snow.
Believe me we live more than happy without the "white stuff" in paradise ! ;)
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Lowest temp ever was 40 degrees. I've heard of hail here, but not snow.


Had a guy from pr who live there his whole life and was there and it snowed
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Quoting weatherh98:


That was a shear map just about what has happened in the last day or so so yea he was right
\



no it was not a wind shear ma that map it posted was a Shear Tendency map it shows how high and how low the wind shear has been in the last 24hrs and its all so show where the wind shear been Incrasing and dectrasing



some of you guys need too larn your maps be for posting them
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114721
Quoting robj144:


I would LOVE to see snow in South FLA. I think most people would think it was the end of the world. It would be amusing.


Lol! It snowed here a couple years ago. My son was driving his 18 wheeler. He just got all bent out of shape about it!! Hated it! He didn't like it at all that he couldn't see through that rain!!!! Lol. My little Texas boy. :)
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 676
96L might just be an area their privately watching. Not likely to develop.
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Oh...I see the problem now.



Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31462
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:



You're right, its pumping the ridge.
There is a definite difference between "pumping" the ridge and "humping" the ridge.

Quoting Thrawst:


Interesting that the Bahamas has the warmest waters in the Atlantic. Approaching 32C-33C. o.O if a Cape-Verde hurricane with an anticyclone over it came over here... NOT pretty.
Can we, like, NOT go there? I'm trying to sleep at night. And buy a battery operated fan ASAP.


Quoting deaddude21:
What about my brain? [snip]
Yep. I see why so many have u on ignore. You really think u r smarter than everybody else! LOL.... even if you are right all the time, it will eventually make no difference, because nobody will be listening to you. Sad.

Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Intellect and wisdom are not to be confused.
I also feel for this minnow; the first time he's wrong about anything will prolly blow his mind...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21485
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


No, it deserves to be classified as an invest. It has a well-defined, closed circulation. However, convection is not one of 96L's strong points.

Where are you looking at the system north of Gert?
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Invests dont always get mentioned in the TWO...we had 92L and 93L both as invests before they were mentioned in the TWO.
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I believe he is genuinely interested in weather. Sometimes people come off being brash but then after reading a quoted post, noting his age, I now realize that I'm dealing with my seventeen year old son. They know everything and you can't tell them otherwise. So yeah, it was like me saying, "go sit in the corner and think about what you just said". Of course, I'm training two five month old German Shepherds who think they know everything as well. Maybe I got confused with the species I was dealing with. Lol!


Quoting BahaHurican:
Jax, the fact that YOU poofed him is what got my attention... lol it was like [go to corner and THINK about what you just said].... lol

I think we sometimes get a knee-jerk reaction after wading through masses of genuine trolls, who will likely be out in numbers once things get going in the next 5-10 days. Annoying as this kid has been today, I think his interest in weather is genuine. I haven't poofed him myself - YET.... lol
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1086. ncstorm
Quoting mcluvincane:


can you post it? TIA


I myself cant post it until it gets on the FSU or PSU site which I dont think they post the 18Z run..I dont have the software like the other bloggers to capture the image from the Navy site, I can only post the link, sorry..hopefully someone else will will post the image..
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Quoting Tazmanian:




the 2nd map is not a wind shear map


this is


Oh well still 10 knots is not bad, just some dry air to deal with, but I hear the MOJO is coming around.
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Copy and paste on the TWO lol.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting GTcooliebai:
I'm starting to wonder if that was a mistake by the Navy NRL.


No, it deserves to be classified as an invest. It has a well-defined, closed circulation. However, convection is not one of 96L's strong points. Not usually one to bash the National Hurricane Center, but a bad call by the organization. Should have deserved at least a yellow circle.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31462
Quoting Tazmanian:




the 2nd map is not a wind shear map


this is




That was a shear map just about what has happened in the last day or so so yea he was right
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am starting too wounder if some one made a opps on 96L
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114721
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Wow...No mention on 96L? Seriously?
I'm starting to wonder if that was a mistake by the Navy NRL.
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Gaahh!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Wow...No mention on 96L? Seriously?




nop
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114721
Quoting weatherh98:


It has in the mountains, once didn't stick 39 degrees

Lowest temp ever was 40 degrees. I've heard of hail here, but not snow.
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Quoting deaddude21:

Once again, it's fascism to think that "different opinion" translates into an objective "error". Not calling you a fascist, but that's one major principle of fascism, or dictatorship. The "pulverize the Eiffel towers who criticize your government, kill all the idiots that don't agree" mentality.


Okay. I will use simpler terms. You did not learn in 2006 (if in fact you were here) that categorizing anyone who disagrees with you (fascism) while categorically dismissing what others believe to be true because you think you are the most knowledgeable person on the subject (look up hypocrisy,) convinces people that you know what you are talking about. Yet you don't understand why others don't want to have a discussion with you.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.