Tropical Depression Seven forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:25 PM GMT on August 14, 2011

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The latest in our unusual number of weak tropical cyclones this season, Tropical Depression Seven, has formed to the southeast of Bermuda. Unless you live in Bermuda, TD 7 is not going to be a concern. Radar out of Bermuda shows an area of rain on the northern side of TD 7 beginning to approach the island, and rain from the storm will likely affect the island tonight and on Monday. TD 7 is not well-organized, and has only limited heavy thunderstorms, as seen on visible satellite images. While wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, dry air surrounds TD 7, and is keeping the storm from intensifying. None of the computer models foresee that TD 7 will ever become more than a weak tropical storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of TD 7.

92L
TD 7 isn't the only system Bermuda needs to watch, Invest 92L is a day behind it, and will follow a path very similar to TD 7's. The disturbance will pass close to Bermuda on Tuesday, bringing the island a second round of tropical rains. However, Invest 92L is very disorganized, as seen on recent visible satellite loops. Dry air and close proximity to TD 7 will likely keep 92L from showing significant development over the next two days, with NHC giving the system just a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa we've been tracking over the past few days, Invest 93L, has fallen apart and is no longer a threat to develop. This system will need to be watched once it enters the Caribbean later this week, though. None of the reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone formation predict development of this system or any new disturbances over the coming week.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Hellsniper223:
Seems like Ex93L May be a problematic system. We'll probably see another flare up and die down as it continues to moisten its environment. I'm under the impression that it'll eventually kill the dry air in its immediate vicinity and should be able to close a wet MLC/LLC... From there... Wind shear shouldn't be too much of an issue, as it's trending towards being at least moderately favorable.

Keep an eye on that 850mb vort map tomorrow and Tuesday. Study your Wv imagery... And if you live Between Cancun and Maimi prepare yourself for a hypercane. Ex93L has the potential to be a HUGE system. lAwl

My opinion...
Ex93L

Genesis probability:
24hr 10%
48hr 20%
72hr 50%

I didn't review any of the comments in this thread before I posted.... All apologies if I'm beating a dead horse.
no apology needed. i just posted aout 93l as well. i was saying that i thought that earlier this week everyone was saying that 93l wouldn't be able to do anything until it got into the caribbean. i agree 100%. i also think that we may see something from 93l in a few days, but i also won't place a bet on it, cuz these past 2 seasons have given even the best of the best a run for their money. although the caribbean may have all the right spices, it still has yet to cook up anything real good:)
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looks like ex93l isnt doing too good on convection right now
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1172. K8eCane
they cant make up their mind if i am an this tornado warning area or not
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Quoting jaxbeachbum:


Same here in Jacksonville, flurries. Kids were disappointed it didn't stick. At least they did get to experience snow though. Last year in Atlanta, visiting my sister, it snowed. We actually got snowed in because living in Florida you do not have to worry about ice and snow or preparing your car for such nonsense. All four of them were making snowballs and snow angels. They didn't even realize they could put the gloves on I had bought them. I grew up in the north, snow and all, loved it!


My only white christmas was in Ocala,Florida :)
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Just did a blog on Gert, if anyone wants to read.

I'm out. Be back later this evening, most likely.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21231
Hello all :)

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Quoting jaxbeachbum:
I remember reading, and I don't know the year, in the 70's I believe, that there were flurries in Miami but the interesting part is that it got cold enough that the iguanas were falling out of trees.




1977 snow in Pompano Beach , I was here in south Florida and witnessed it but don't remember any iguanas back then . It was 2 years ago when it was cold long enough for thousands of them to fall out of the trees and many died .
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Quoting flwthrfan:


That was a huge deal! Was in class then and everyone ran outside to see and feel it! Was gone as soon as it hit the ground but an amazing
event.


Same here in Jacksonville, flurries. Kids were disappointed it didn't stick. At least they did get to experience snow though. Last year in Atlanta, visiting my sister, it snowed. We actually got snowed in because living in Florida you do not have to worry about ice and snow or preparing your car for such nonsense. All four of them were making snowballs and snow angels. They didn't even realize they could put the gloves on I had bought them. I grew up in the north, snow and all, loved it!
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Quoting HurricaneNewb:
Taz we need to Rip ex93l then maybe it will come back hehe..



good thinking i send 93L a docer bill for $100,000
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
Quoting robj144:


Could be wrong, but isn't one a tendency map and the other just a shear map?


Different sites calculate the shear differently. SSD uses strictly the 850-200 mb layers, while CIMSS uses a layer mean, the 150-350 mean and the 700-925 mean.
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Quoting deaddude21:
The "ignore user" feature is IMO one of the worst things that can exist on a site...Having a feature to delete another person's posts from your sight breeds thin-skinnedness which is so much the problem with today's society. If I see a post that is pro-communism, or pro-global warming, sure I'm going to argue with it, but I'm not going to be like, "OMG TROLL!" or "CHILD!" or "YOU STUPID LITTLE ****!" attempting to treat the user as inferior.

That's what the problem with today's mainstream politics is, politicians use these inferior-treatment tactics against each other, and the people get offended and fight back even harder and bash each other to death and the wrong things get done.

There are still people ignoring global warming??????
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Taz we need to Rip ex93l then maybe it will come back hehe..
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Quoting Neapolitan:
TD7 a bit stronger:

AL, 07, 2011081500, , BEST, 0, 295N, 632W, 40, 1008, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 60, 0, 0, 1014, 130, 25, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GERT, D,


You mean gert.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
1158. robj144
Quoting Landfall2004:


I don't think we have had flurries since about 1975. It also tried in the early 90's.


There have been very brief periods of snow since then, but I'm talking about an accumulation of snow really.

Also, I was referring to the winter of 2010 as the winter where the iguanas were falling out of trees, not that it snowed.
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Quoting deaddude21:
What about my brain? I maintain a GPA of 4.00...currently ranked #1 in my class of over 600...5-A school no less.


Having intelligence, and using intelligence, is two different things!

You are obviously bright, be perhaps you should consider my first statement.

In you click of 600, you may be the most intelligent, but here, you are just a pimple on the blog's rear.....

Use your intelligence to further the discussion. Back your discussion with facts, figures, diagrams, and pictures...... and if you are expressing your "gut" feeling, ensure people know you are doing so!

Against the advice of many, there are a lot of people who read what is written here as gospel, when it should just be seen as what it is...... a learning tool.

Don't want to sound like a old fart, but I miss the days back in 2005, when the blog was at its finest moment...... other than some random rants by StormTop, and a troll here of there...... the conversation and level of knowledge was so much more fun...... I don't post mush anymore, I do however consider some of the folks on this blog to be fine individuals....... even Dr. Masters, despite our many arguments about Global Warming.

Howdy to all my long time friends....... and I often wonder what happened to many of the great bloggers of the past......
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TD7 a bit stronger:

AL, 07, 2011081500, , BEST, 0, 295N, 632W, 40, 1008, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 60, 0, 0, 1014, 130, 25, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GERT, D,
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ex 93L lost all most all of it t-storms tonight
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
Quoting cloudburst2011:




once they are affected by the SAL they go to pieces like patsy cline...i said it a few weeks ago in here the CV season would not amount to much this year because of the strong SAL....
Ooo... credit for the nifty allusion+simile.... I do agree we're not going to see more than average CV activity.... not a sign, though that there won't be storms. Just, unfortunately, IMO increased likelihood that what does form will do so W of 45W, therefore increased probability of landfall.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22687
Quoting AllStar17:
EPAC is heating up and the Atlantic remains active.

Ex-93L is still a threat and I am interested to see if the area north of Hispaniola tries to cause some mischief in the Bahamas region.


Lovely... :P
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Quoting robj144:


That was last winter. The iguanas have only been around for the pat 10 years or so.


I don't think we have had flurries since about 1975. It also tried in the early 90's.
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1150. robj144
Quoting deaddude21:

Then why do the maps consistently show different amounts of shear?


Could be wrong, but isn't one a tendency map and the other just a shear map?
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Seems like Ex93L May be a problematic system. We'll probably see another flare up and die down as it continues to moisten its environment. I'm under the impression that it'll eventually kill the dry air in its immediate vicinity and should be able to close a wet MLC/LLC... From there... Wind shear shouldn't be too much of an issue, as it's trending towards being at least moderately favorable.

Keep an eye on that 850mb vort map tomorrow and Tuesday. Study your Wv imagery... And if you live Between Cancun and Maimi prepare yourself for a hypercane. Ex93L has the potential to be a HUGE system. lAwl

My opinion...
Ex93L

Genesis probability:
24hr 10%
48hr 20%
72hr 50%

I didn't review any of the comments in this thread before I posted.... All apologies if I'm beating a dead horse.
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Quoting jaxbeachbum:
I remember reading, and I don't know the year, in the 70's I believe, that there were flurries in Miami but the interesting part is that it got cold enough that the iguanas were falling out of trees.




That was a huge deal! Was in class then and everyone ran outside to see and feel it! Was gone as soon as it hit the ground but an amazing event.
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EPAC is heating up and the Atlantic remains active.

Ex-93L is still a threat and I am interested to see if the area north of Hispaniola tries to cause some mischief in the Bahamas region.
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Quoting dfwstormwatch:
do you all think 92l has any chance of developing after having the life sucked out of it by t.s gert?



yes once are TS move far a way it will have a better ch this needs too get its 850mb vort back
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
1143. Dennis8
Quoting Thrawst:


Nah, just light speed typing without editing! :D Lol it's funny. now, it's QUITE possible i could be tipsy ATM, but at least my spelling isn't outta whack!


LOL...I HEARD THAT.
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do you all think 92l has any chance of developing after having the life sucked out of it by t.s gert?
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A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUATEMALA. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 TO 15
MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Re: EPac.... is this the Twave that just went over onto that side? If so, may be the next TC. And if they get another 'cane over there, I say nix on anything stronger than TS over here before next weekend...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22687
1138. robj144
Quoting jaxbeachbum:
I remember reading, and I don't know the year, in the 70's I believe, that there were flurries in Miami but the interesting part is that it got cold enough that the iguanas were falling out of trees.




That was last winter. The iguanas have only been around for the pat 10 years or so.
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Quoting P451:


Large circulation = bad. They take a ridiculous amount of time to organize and this entity doesn't have that much time left.
Large amounts of dry air = bad. That doesn't seem to be changing anytime soon.

93L is of no threat to develop prior to the islands.
It's next shot of development, if it even exists by then, will be the Caribbean west of 70W.

The conditions ahead of it are not conducive for development of a tropical cyclone let alone a thundershower at this point in time.



We just have to all own up, except for a select few (such as kman), that 93L fooled us by looking so good off of Africa. It has been a nothing system since and has been in such poor shape for so long that there is no significant surface feature that you would worry about down the road.

wasn't it thought about a week ago that 93l would not develop until it hit the caribbean? i am pretty sure i remember reading this on this site. i guess i could be wrong as i so often am with tropical weather. lol!
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1136. Thrawst
Quoting Dennis8:



LOL..DRUNK?


Nah, just light speed typing without editing! :D Lol it's funny. now, it's QUITE possible i could be tipsy ATM, but at least my spelling isn't outta whack!
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Quoting Thrawst:


I'm not trying to be mean or anything, but I have no idea what you just said... lol.
I understand that it shows a differential in the amount of windshear over a region over a period of 24 hours, but the spelling makes my head spin lol. I respect you though... you obviously have a great interest in the tropics! :-)


Lol i see you just met taz
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Quoting robj144:


I would LOVE to see snow in South FLA. I think most people would think it was the end of the world. It would be amusing.
It's happened a few times. NOT fun... unless u r only watching....

Quoting jaxbeachbum:
I believe he is genuinely interested in weather. Sometimes people come off being brash but then after reading a quoted post, noting his age, I now realize that I'm dealing with my seventeen year old son. They know everything and you can't tell them otherwise. So yeah, it was like me saying, "go sit in the corner and think about what you just said". Of course, I'm training two five month old German Shepherds who think they know everything as well. Maybe I got confused with the species I was dealing with. Lol!


LOL... so true... it helps to have that parenting background sometimes on this blog... we got a run on 12 - 21 year-olds in here from time to time.... lol

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22687
Quoting deaddude21:



You have been arguing with us and provoking others. A PURE TROLL.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
Quoting cloudburst2011:




really pathetic.........




you are pathetic POOF
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
Quoting deaddude21:
Anyone bring up the SSD shear map? That one tends to be the most reliable and accurate. The one everyone posts now is the erratic and often overblown CIMSS map.


They aren't models deaddude, they are dead right about the current shear.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
Quoting P451:


Large circulation = bad. They take a ridiculous amount of time to organize and this entity doesn't have that much time left.
Large amounts of dry air = bad. That doesn't seem to be changing anytime soon.

93L is of no threat to develop prior to the islands.
It's next shot of development, if it even exists by then, will be the Caribbean west of 70W.

The conditions ahead of it are not conducive for development of a tropical cyclone let alone a thundershower at this point in time.



We just have to all own up, except for a select few (such as kman), that 93L fooled us by looking so good off of Africa. It has been a nothing system since and has been in such poor shape for so long that there is no significant surface feature that you would worry about down the road.


+1
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1125. Thrawst
Quoting Tazmanian:
\



no it was not a wind shear ma that map it posted was a Shear Tendency map it shows how high and how low the wind shear has been in the last 24hrs and its all so show where the wind shear been Incrasing and dectrasing



some of you guys need too larn your maps be for posting them


I'm not trying to be mean or anything, but I have no idea what you just said... lol.
I understand that it shows a differential in the amount of windshear over a region over a period of 24 hours, but the spelling makes my head spin lol. I respect you though... you obviously have a great interest in the tropics! :-)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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