Tropical Depression Seven forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:25 PM GMT on August 14, 2011

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The latest in our unusual number of weak tropical cyclones this season, Tropical Depression Seven, has formed to the southeast of Bermuda. Unless you live in Bermuda, TD 7 is not going to be a concern. Radar out of Bermuda shows an area of rain on the northern side of TD 7 beginning to approach the island, and rain from the storm will likely affect the island tonight and on Monday. TD 7 is not well-organized, and has only limited heavy thunderstorms, as seen on visible satellite images. While wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, dry air surrounds TD 7, and is keeping the storm from intensifying. None of the computer models foresee that TD 7 will ever become more than a weak tropical storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of TD 7.

92L
TD 7 isn't the only system Bermuda needs to watch, Invest 92L is a day behind it, and will follow a path very similar to TD 7's. The disturbance will pass close to Bermuda on Tuesday, bringing the island a second round of tropical rains. However, Invest 92L is very disorganized, as seen on recent visible satellite loops. Dry air and close proximity to TD 7 will likely keep 92L from showing significant development over the next two days, with NHC giving the system just a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa we've been tracking over the past few days, Invest 93L, has fallen apart and is no longer a threat to develop. This system will need to be watched once it enters the Caribbean later this week, though. None of the reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone formation predict development of this system or any new disturbances over the coming week.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting weatherh98:


Hot hot hot hot there will be storms


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1224. scott39
Quoting TampaSpin:


If it has not developed before reaching the Windward Islands into the Eastern Caribbean it won't develop. Need to watch the progress into the Central and Western Caribbean which it appears to be destined to go.
So Eastern Caribbean...dead!! Central/Western...watch it!!
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1223. JLPR2

Will be interesting to see if 93L refires later tonight.
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1222. Mucinex
Quoting NHCaddict:


Definitely flurries in Miami in the mid/late 70s. My husband was in college there at the time.


It flurried in Oakland Park 2 years ago.
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Was placed under ANOTHER tornado warning while I was gone...two times in two hours.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32802
Quoting deaddude21:

I remember you from long ago. I didn't know you still existed here. Great to have you back, honestly.


Not really "back", just trying to keep you from self destructing! LOL

You Young Man, are a diamond in the rough, but part of maturing is not "bragging" on how much you know, but rather realizing your mortality, and admitting how much you really don't know!

I appreciate your political inklings, it is sorely lacking in the majority of our youth...... but I would "strongly" suggest leaving it out of this weather blog. Besides the obvious of banned, you loose respect by throwing around political sentiments......

Just for the record, if I didn't see your potential, I wouldn't waste my time! ;) Food for thought, some of the most brilliant people in our history, were also ones in many cases who had the most humility.......

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Big wave coming off Africa.
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CIMSS

24-hour Atmospheric Shear Tendency

The change in deep-layer wind shear over 24 four hours is plotted with the line contours. An increase in shear is shown as a positive value (solid lines), a decrease is negative (dashed lines). The current upper level shear is shown with the colored background contours.

Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
Quoting MississippiWx:


The MJO is already returning over our basin.



when sould it fully be back
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115453
Quoting tropicfreak:


93L has an anticyclone over it tampa.




The very dry air is what is preventing it from forming!!!!!





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1215. klew136
Quoting j2008:

We had one hurricane last year at this time, that was Alex. Don't go counting out this year, just look at what happened last year.

look what happened in 1992,, didn't have a hurricane until Aug 23 first named entity ANDREW
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Quoting jaxbeachbum:
I remember reading, and I don't know the year, in the 70's I believe, that there were flurries in Miami but the interesting part is that it got cold enough that the iguanas were falling out of trees.




Definitely flurries in Miami in the mid/late 70s. My husband was in college there at the time.

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CIMSS

Atmospheric Motion Vector (AMV) Gridded Analysis

Analyses are calculated utilizing gridded output from the auto editing process of the satellite atmospheric motion vector (AMV) fields. The AMV data are fit to a one degree grid at the following heights (100, 150, 200, 250, 300, 350, 400, 500, 600, 700, 775, 850, and 925 hPa), with data sparse regions at each height filled with numerical model output. Grids consist of u and v wind components.

The background model used is usually the United States Navy's NOGAPS, but NOAA's GFS model serves as a back up.

Using the gridded atmospheric motion vector output u and v AMV components are averaged over an upper layer (150, 200, 250, 300, and 350 hPa) and a lower layer (700, 775, 850, and 925 hPa). The difference in these averaged components is used to compute the speed shear between the upper and lower layers. The contours show the vector magnitude shear (absolute value). The streamlines indicate the direction of the shear.


Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
1212. JLPR2
Quoting MississippiWx:


The MJO is already returning over our basin.





Yeah, the ITCZ is getting visible once again; but it seems it isn't a very strong pulse as of now.

That TW about to exit Africa still looking nice.
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Africa's wave train

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15/0000 UTC 12.4N 128.9W T2.0/2.0 98E -- East Pacific
14/2345 UTC 29.3N 63.5W T2.5/2.5 GERT -- Atlantic
14/2345 UTC 24.9N 60.4W TOO WEAK 92L -- Atlantic
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115453
Quoting TampaSpin:



Dry air is a larger problem for ex 93L then is Shear it appears......Looks like about 20-25mph in Shear which is not very good but not unreasonable for slow development if the Dry air was not present.


93L has an anticyclone over it tampa.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
Quoting scott39:
Do you think this is the one for the Caribbean...or another DUD??


If it has not developed before reaching the Windward Islands into the Eastern Caribbean it won't develop. Need to watch the progress into the Central and Western Caribbean which it appears to be destined to go.
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Quoting P451:


Supposedly.... but I'm not sure how much you can trust the short range forecasts on that. Doesn't appear it will happen in time.

93L's only real shot is the western Caribbean - provided there is anything left with it by then.



The MJO is already returning over our basin.



Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
They bought 30% of US debt...

They have their own new "Stealth fighter"

They have a new aircraft carrier (3 additional under construction)

They have their own GPS satellite system

And Soon they are going to have their new Stealth helicopter....

Pakistan let China see crashed U.S. "stealth" copter
ISLAMABAD (Reuters) - Pakistan gave China access to the previously unknown U.S. "stealth" helicopter that crashed during the commando raid that killed Osama bin Laden in May despite explicit requests from the CIA not to, the Financial Times reported on Sunday. Link

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Dry air is a larger problem for ex 93L then is Shear it appears......Looks like about 20-25mph in Shear which is not very good but not unreasonable for slow development if the Dry air was not present.
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1204. scott39
Quoting TampaSpin:
Do you think this is the one for the Caribbean...or another DUD??
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Quoting thelmores:


Having intelligence, and using intelligence, is two different things!

You are obviously bright, be perhaps you should consider my first statement.

In you click of 600, you may be the most intelligent, but here, you are just a pimple on the blog's rear.....

Use your intelligence to further the discussion. Back your discussion with facts, figures, diagrams, and pictures...... and if you are expressing your "gut" feeling, ensure people know you are doing so!

Against the advice of many, there are a lot of people who read what is written here as gospel, when it should just be seen as what it is...... a learning tool.

Don't want to sound like a old fart, but I miss the days back in 2005, when the blog was at its finest moment...... other than some random rants by StormTop, and a troll here of there...... the conversation and level of knowledge was so much more fun...... I don't post mush anymore, I do however consider some of the folks on this blog to be fine individuals....... even Dr. Masters, despite our many arguments about Global Warming.

Howdy to all my long time friends....... and I often wonder what happened to many of the great bloggers of the past......


Miss your drawings highlighting the structure of a system
Member Since: August 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 678
1200. j2008
Quoting cloudburst2011:



you just dont get it...i will say it for you can understand it 3 words...SHEAR,SAL,AND TROFS FREQUENTLY COMING DOWN THE EAST COAST..forget about last season thats history ...

Anyone got my back on this. I dont have the resources to explain all of why Shear and SAL will decrease as we go on throught the year. I'm not the best to explain this.
Member Since: December 19, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 224
Quoting cloudburst2011:



you just dont get it...i will say it for you can understand it 3 words...SHEAR,SAL,AND TROFS FREQUENTLY COMING DOWN THE EAST COAST..forget about last season thats history ...


Hot hot hot hot there will be storms
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Quoting Neapolitan:
Pressure dropped just a bit for 92L:

AL, 92, 2011081500, , BEST, 0, 248N, 607W, 20, 1012, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,



hmmm still looks like the same to me
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115453
Quoting P451:


Well, that was the opinion of some bloggers, yes.

The problem now is if it doesn't (and likely it won't) develop before the Islands the next chance is beyond 70W. The East Caribbean is not favorable for development at all - especially for beat up systems like 93L.

When you look ahead the environment from 93L westward all the way to the SW Caribbean is atrocious.

Wouldn't MJO bring moisture back up into the Caribbean, been hearing it's suppose to swing around here soon?
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Quoting P451:


Well, that was the opinion of some bloggers, yes.

The problem now is if it doesn't (and likely it won't) develop before the Islands the next chance is beyond 70W. The East Caribbean is not favorable for development at all - especially for beat up systems like 93L.

When you look ahead the environment from 93L westward all the way to the SW Caribbean is atrocious.

A lot more subsidence located it the eastern Caribbean...more so than I previously thought. 93L's large moisture field will probably help it though...however chances of cyclogenesis won't be too high until the system reaches the central Caribbean.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting sarahjola:
no apology needed. i just posted aout 93l as well. i was saying that i thought that earlier this week everyone was saying that 93l wouldn't be able to do anything until it got into the caribbean. i agree 100%. i also think that we may see something from 93l in a few days, but i also won't place a bet on it, cuz these past 2 seasons have given even the best of the best a run for their money. although the caribbean may have all the right spices, it still has yet to cook up anything real good:)


It wasn't supposed to develop until the Caribbean per the models before they dropped it. My local TV guy said they're still going to watch it even though the NHC has written it ff for now. Never know. But the models have missed a couple this season. :)
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
1192. JLPR2
Quoting P451:


Well, that was the opinion of some bloggers, yes.

The problem now is if it doesn't (and likely it won't) develop before the Islands the next chance is beyond 70W. The East Caribbean is not favorable for development at all - especially for beat up systems like 93L.

When you look ahead the environment from 93L westward all the way to the SW Caribbean is atrocious.



Seems to have created its own little bubble of humid air, but yeah, Emily(aka 91L) looked much better at this area and it had a hard time in the Eastern Caribbean, what could a weak system like 93L accomplish?
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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
I still believe that Gert will become a hurricane.


60 mph besto
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Quoting PRZEDCASTER:


1977 snow in Pompano Beach , I was here in south Florida and witnessed it but don't remember any iguanas back then . It was 2 years ago when it was cold long enough for thousands of them to fall out of the trees and many died .


You're right, no iguanas back in 70's. It was last year and it would have been a perfect time to gather up a large population and take them back to their rightful place.

My last white Christmas was in 1985, Kentucky. We moved to Florida summer of 1986.
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1185. Thrawst
Quoting BahaHurican:
LOL, being able to read bad spelling can sometimes be a virtue on here...

U r absolutely right... this weekend's disease is impatience....



A. I've lived with it since childhood. I remember my teacher in 8th grade couldn't spell... lol awk right?
B. I think it's with every satellite image that comes in, people make a new decision on the cyclone/disturbance... in other words... no confidence in their predictions.
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I still believe that Gert will become a hurricane.
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1183. j2008
Quoting cloudburst2011:



ok look at the facts we have had 7 tropical storms NO HURRICANES we are in mid august...if you look on the pacific side they out number us 100/1 on hurricanes...the NHC has to name these fish storms but this season has been a dud so far...SAL does not show any signs of weakening...yes we may have a few landfalls on the us but we are not talking about a record breaking season in here like some of you think...bottom line we may have a FEW HURRICANES THIS YEAR...

We had one hurricane last year at this time, that was Alex. Don't go counting out this year, just look at what happened last year.
Member Since: December 19, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 224
Quoting thelmores:



Howdy to all my long time friends....... and I often wonder what happened to many of the great bloggers of the past......
Good to see you thel.... hope u have time to swing through here a little more regular this season.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22725
Pressure dropped just a bit for 92L:

AL, 92, 2011081500, , BEST, 0, 248N, 607W, 20, 1012, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
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1179. JGreco
Quoting Tazmanian:
ex 93L lost all most all of it t-storms tonight


But it still seems like in the most recent satellite pictures, were the center was has a blow up of showers starting. It's as if this former invest is playing mind games with everybody.:o
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Quoting Thrawst:


Nah, just light speed typing without editing! :D Lol it's funny. now, it's QUITE possible i could be tipsy ATM, but at least my spelling isn't outta whack!
LOL, being able to read bad spelling can sometimes be a virtue on here...

Quoting sarahjola:

wasn't it thought about a week ago that 93l would not develop until it hit the caribbean? i am pretty sure i remember reading this on this site. i guess i could be wrong as i so often am with tropical weather. lol!
U r absolutely right... this weekend's disease is impatience....

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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