Tropical Depression Seven forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:25 PM GMT on August 14, 2011

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The latest in our unusual number of weak tropical cyclones this season, Tropical Depression Seven, has formed to the southeast of Bermuda. Unless you live in Bermuda, TD 7 is not going to be a concern. Radar out of Bermuda shows an area of rain on the northern side of TD 7 beginning to approach the island, and rain from the storm will likely affect the island tonight and on Monday. TD 7 is not well-organized, and has only limited heavy thunderstorms, as seen on visible satellite images. While wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, dry air surrounds TD 7, and is keeping the storm from intensifying. None of the computer models foresee that TD 7 will ever become more than a weak tropical storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of TD 7.

92L
TD 7 isn't the only system Bermuda needs to watch, Invest 92L is a day behind it, and will follow a path very similar to TD 7's. The disturbance will pass close to Bermuda on Tuesday, bringing the island a second round of tropical rains. However, Invest 92L is very disorganized, as seen on recent visible satellite loops. Dry air and close proximity to TD 7 will likely keep 92L from showing significant development over the next two days, with NHC giving the system just a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa we've been tracking over the past few days, Invest 93L, has fallen apart and is no longer a threat to develop. This system will need to be watched once it enters the Caribbean later this week, though. None of the reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone formation predict development of this system or any new disturbances over the coming week.

Jeff Masters

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1325. JLPR2
Quoting BahaHurican:
Want to see it in 36 hrs.... have to admit it has a nice envelope of moisture w/ it...



Yep, needs awhile, this year's waves need 48hrs. xD
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I'm learnin. How could absorbing 92L affect Gert?
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1323. j2008
Quoting BahaHurican:
sometimes u got to just leave it to the season. Who knows? He may be right. But if he isn't, the record will show.

Also note you are arguing apples and oranges here... both fruity, but not really the same in a lot of other ways...


I get what you're saying. Thanks.
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Stupid question, but could Gert go under RI?

It is possible, but IMO it is very unlikely.
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Jrweatherman,
No, those chances for RI are about 15% or less
look for gradual development of Gert...
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Quoting JLPR2:


Yeah, the ITCZ is getting visible once again; but it seems it isn't a very strong pulse as of now.

That TW about to exit Africa still looking nice.
Want to see it in 36 hrs.... have to admit it has a nice envelope of moisture w/ it...

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Quoting TampaSpin:



Thelm i too see some very troubling signs coming for the Bahamas and the Eastern Seaboard. I just don't like what is happening already.


Would you care to expound on the last part? Curious of your thought's......
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Stupid question, but could Gert go under RI?
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Quoting j2008:

Anyone got my back on this. I dont have the resources to explain all of why Shear and SAL will decrease as we go on throught the year. I'm not the best to explain this.
sometimes u got to just leave it to the season. Who knows? He may be right. But if he isn't, the record will show.

Also note you are arguing apples and oranges here... both fruity, but not really the same in a lot of other ways...

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Ge r t

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Quoting Patrap:

Live as if you were to die tomorrow. Learn as if you were to live forever.

Mohandas Gandhi



Pat and Ghandi! Two wise men! ;)
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Quoting JLPR2:
Seems 92L is basically gone.
yep Gert pretty much had it for lunch.
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1311. j2008
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Inflow of Gert is dominating over 92L's inflow...92L is a goner it looks like...

I would be shocked if the NHC didn't eliminate it (or at least downgrade its %) from the next outlook.

10-20% seems like a good estamite, I dont think they will eliminate it at the next TWO.
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Inflow of Gert is dominating over 92L's inflow...92L is a goner it looks like...

I would be shocked if the NHC didn't eliminate it (or at least downgrade its %) from the next outlook.


I've been saying most of the day that Gert is absorbing 92L. If you look at vorticity maps, you can see 92L's vort basically being sucked into Gert.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10250
Quoting JLPR2:
Seems 92L is basically gone.


Inflow of Gert is dominating over 92L's inflow...92L is a goner it looks like...

I would be shocked if the NHC didn't eliminate it (or at least downgrade its %) from the next outlook.
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here is where we stan




round 1


90L bust

91L bust

94L bust

95L be comes ARLENE

96L bust

97L bust

98L be comes BRET

99L be comes CINDY



round 2


90L be comes DON

91L be comes EMILY

92L bust absorbed by Gert.

93L bust

94L be comes GERT

95L be comes FRANKLIN

96L bust
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115131
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Thinking Gert will peak around 60 to 65 Mph TS...
She has about 36 hours so that decent enough for gradual strengthening...

So far this Hurricane Season:
ACE: 10.6

$ in Damage:
$218 Million

Total Amount of Storms:
7 Named Storms
0 Hurricanes
0 Major Hurricanes

1 US Landfall...

Strongest Storms:
Arlene~ 65 Mph TS 993 MB
If Gert doesn't strengthen into a Hurricane, that would be a record for consecutive tropical storms without a Hurricane.
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yup 92 and 93L gone
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115131
WOW...Gert's highest clouds are practically a perfect circle!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/ir4-l.jpg
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1303. JLPR2
Seems 92L is basically gone.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Gert has the appearance of a gradually strengthening tropical storm. Will probably strengthen overnight and affect Bermuda tomorrow with tropical storm conditions.



Checking back this evening on tropics....

...my opinion on Gert's strength is changing...this storm could actually make it to hurricane strength. The circular CDO (central dense overcast) is aligning over the center. It also has a good anticyclone established over it as discussed in the NHC 5 PM EDT advisory discussion. And on top of that, Gert is a small storm...so it also has a higher chance of rapid strengthening

And because Gert is a small storm and hooking northward right now...the worst weather should pass east of Bermuda. I wouldn't be suprised if all they see is some light rain with winds staying under tropical storm force sustained.
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Quoting P451:


That rapid increase in steering layer forward motion isn't helping either. The wave axis was sheared far ahead of the area of convection once it felt the influence of the upward speed of the steering layer.



Is this an indication of how strong the Ridging is?
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Quoting P451:


Not enough to salvage x93L before 70W.

The Caribbean is a dead zone and I don't think you see a rapid change in that (next 72 hours if you will).



Why is this so? (real question, I have no idea why)
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Quoting klew136:

The iguanas falling out of trees happened two years also, in the Keys, we didn't go over 55 for a period of at least four weeks, and the lows were in the 40's and no one has heat in their house. We weren't upset over the iguanas because they are not suppose to live here, but we were upset over the fish kill due to cold temps on the surface and no oxygen to the fish.


I would like to see the NWS daily temp log for that 4 week stretch -seems like an exaggeration.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


It's embedded in a large moisture field, though. Dry air isn't going to kill it enough for it totally dissipate. The biggest issue is whether it can obtain a decent low level center.



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1297. JLPR2
Quoting xcool:



Tropical Cyclone Forecast System
(provides probabilitity of tropical cyclone occurence associated with
convectively coupled equatorial waves, ENSO, and the MJO)


Hey xcool! Hadn't seen you in awhile.
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Thinking Gert will peak around 60 to 65 Mph TS...
She has about 36 hours so that decent enough for gradual strengthening...

So far this Hurricane Season:
ACE: 10.6

$ in Damage:
$218 Million

Total Amount of Storms:
7 Named Storms
0 Hurricanes
0 Major Hurricanes

1 US Landfall...

Strongest Storms:
Arlene~ 65 Mph TS 993 MB
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That observed inverse relationship between the E-Pac and Atlantic Basins has been pretty much thrown out the window this year with multiple storms at the same time on both sides so far.......It has some basis in the MJO cycle but the E-Pac is primed to pop again at the moment while we wait on the next Atlantic system ITCZ wise.
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1293. pottery
Quoting scott39:
So you think ex93L is dead dead dead!!??

It is now!
But Zombies do appear from time to time.
When least expected.
So watch out!
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Quoting daddyjames:


Complete with the cool hairdos ;D
Well IDK who it really is, still what a site it must have been, I could only imagine the school children going outside, especially those who have never seen snow or had the chance to roll up in it, trying to make tiny snowballs and throw it at one another.
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Quoting P451:


Not enough to salvage x93L before 70W.

The Caribbean is a dead zone and I don't think you see a rapid change in that (next 72 hours if you will).



It's embedded in a large moisture field, though. Dry air isn't going to kill it enough for it totally dissipate. The biggest issue is whether it can obtain a decent low level center.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10250
Quoting WhoDat1:


Is that a dinosaur in the background..


hey watch it with the dinosaur caomments - doesn't seem that long ago to some of us. :D

Well, gotta go, dinner's burning and kids are "dying" of hunger . . . thanks for the trip down memory lane.
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1289. scott39
Quoting P451:


Not enough to salvage x93L before 70W.

The Caribbean is a dead zone and I don't think you see a rapid change in that (next 72 hours if you will).

So you think ex93L is dead dead dead!!??
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Gert has the appearance of a gradually strengthening tropical storm. Will probably strengthen overnight and affect Bermuda tomorrow with tropical storm conditions.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32072
1286. xcool



Tropical Cyclone Forecast System
(provides probabilitity of tropical cyclone occurence associated with
convectively coupled equatorial waves, ENSO, and the MJO)
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Week 2



MJO loves the Atlantic!
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10250
Quoting GTcooliebai:

Like this :)



Complete with the cool hairdos ;D
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That was the scariest lightning strike I have ever seen in my lifetime.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32072
nrtiwlnvragn, I posted earlier about 96L being deleited at atcf. My question is why they didn't deactivated 96L but deleited it?

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Quoting TampaSpin:


Nope Rod Stewart with his hair dyed!
Tony Orlando!
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Quoting blsealevel:


welcome; but i got that off their site most folks dont read the instruction manuel :)


Thanks for post the info; I prefer to stick with the simpler description; relative sheer equals the difference between upper level and lower level winds in a particular geographic area............. :)
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Sorry thelmores, seems like you were wasting your breath.
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Quoting angiest:
As promised, photos from Lake Somerville earlier today.  The lake is at or below 50% capacity.
That is a pretty large lake, sad that the drought is doing this :(
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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