Tropical Depression Seven forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:25 PM GMT on August 14, 2011

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The latest in our unusual number of weak tropical cyclones this season, Tropical Depression Seven, has formed to the southeast of Bermuda. Unless you live in Bermuda, TD 7 is not going to be a concern. Radar out of Bermuda shows an area of rain on the northern side of TD 7 beginning to approach the island, and rain from the storm will likely affect the island tonight and on Monday. TD 7 is not well-organized, and has only limited heavy thunderstorms, as seen on visible satellite images. While wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, dry air surrounds TD 7, and is keeping the storm from intensifying. None of the computer models foresee that TD 7 will ever become more than a weak tropical storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of TD 7.

92L
TD 7 isn't the only system Bermuda needs to watch, Invest 92L is a day behind it, and will follow a path very similar to TD 7's. The disturbance will pass close to Bermuda on Tuesday, bringing the island a second round of tropical rains. However, Invest 92L is very disorganized, as seen on recent visible satellite loops. Dry air and close proximity to TD 7 will likely keep 92L from showing significant development over the next two days, with NHC giving the system just a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa we've been tracking over the past few days, Invest 93L, has fallen apart and is no longer a threat to develop. This system will need to be watched once it enters the Caribbean later this week, though. None of the reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone formation predict development of this system or any new disturbances over the coming week.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting MississippiWx:


Idiot.

Poof.



Sure wish they would show the amount of minus hits one gets from a post..........LOL
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Quoting twincomanche:
Well is there?


Gert with Bermuda. There, you now have proof there's something out there going to affect someone.
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Quoting help4u:
The only Fujiwhara effect is this year and last year.No landfalling storms and none in the near future.Another quiet year ahead!!Experts were wrong again!


Idiot.

Poof.
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I'm getting pummbled here in D.C with heavy rain and thunder and lightning.I tell ya everytime those pesky meteorologist around here beg for rain oh we get it....but we get it the hard way....And lots of it.Grrrr.(Texans don't be angery at me).
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17829
1371. help4u
The only Fujiwhara effect is this year and last year.No landfalling storms and none in the near future.Another quiet year ahead!!Experts were wrong again!
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1369. JLPR2
Quoting P451:
Just starting to show up on Bermuda radar.



That should be interesting, will give us a better idea of what's going on.
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Great Pic of Redoubt.........



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Quoting P451:
Gert



92L



Both loops ending 115Z


Seems like Gert is not entirely in rhythm vertically. Upper levels responding to strong steering going due north. Surface....seems a little bit of easterly shear pushing it somewhat west (note the dark features in imagery on the west side of the storm 'streaming' westward).

Overall looks poised for strengthening. Yet looks right now as if it might miss Bermuda to the East - that would be a shame they could always use the rain from systems like this one.



92L is just all full of problems as evident on the loop. Stretched out now. Impacted from the NW by Gert and from the SW by the ULL. Just drove itself too fast and is now pinched.

Lot of movement with 92L's convection/cloud tops...some going north, some going southeast, and some going west.
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Quoting 7544:


maybe by aug 24 week we always get one around that time



well see
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115455
Quoting P451:
Just starting to show up on Bermuda radar.



Well, Bermuda's radar is much better than anything in Cuba or the Lesser Antilles. LOL.
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1364. 7544
Quoting Tazmanian:



i want a nic 160mph hurricane


maybe by aug 24 week we always get one around that time
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Jrweatherman,
96L had a surface circulation was parallel to New England kinda like Franklin... Though happy to see NHC didnt spend another name on these type of system...



there all ways post season
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115455
Jrweatherman,
96L had a surface circulation was parallel to New England kinda like Franklin... Though happy to see NHC didnt spend another name on these type of system...
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Gert looks like a fat blob.Also did you know that the 3 letters like the E R and T in Gerts name are right beside each other in the fisrt row?.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17829
Quoting 7544:
yeap we need a real system to track this is getting boring sorry taz lol



i want a nic 160mph hurricane
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115455
Just so there's no confusion...

There is no way a Fujiwhara could occur with Gert and 92L.
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1355. 7544
yeap we need a real system to track this is getting boring sorry taz lol
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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
I didnt even know we had 96L. Is it still here?
What did it look like at its best?


96L went poof
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115455
Quoting twincomanche:
Comon gang there's just nothing cookin right now.


Are you drunk? You've made some odd posts.

Quoting twincomanche:
So is this "move on" ? Just signed on.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


How would a Fujiwhara occur when 92L has no surface reflection? It hardly has any reflection at all. Basically all of 92L's energy is being absorbed into Gert and yes, it could help strengthen her by providing more moisture and lift.


Ya i agree.......you gotta have 2 surface rotations that are fairly strong and almost the same.......that we don't have at all.
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
That observed inverse relationship between the E-Pac and Atlantic Basins has been pretty much thrown out the window this year with multiple storms at the same time on both sides so far.......It has some basis in the MJO cycle but the E-Pac is primed to pop again at the moment while we wait on the next Atlantic system ITCZ wise.
Seems the inverse relationship is only showing itself in the quality of storm i.e. EPac gets hurricanes, we get piddling TS.... I'm quite interested to see the next couple AOIs over there, and noticed that one that was red circled a couple days ago has pretty much... fizzled. If they only get a TS out of this one, to me that's another sign that we're good to go on this side of the isthmus.
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1350. angiest
Since the high has kept the lid on the Gulf this year, if it moves far enough away or just dies before the season is over, we could have a doozy of a late season.  Nothing has been able to make use of all that heat.
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Quoting P451:


Yes. If this map is trustworthy you can see how it's in a poor environment. You can see why the wave axis was forced rapidly forward while the convection was left behind to dissipate. It was essentially sheared apart but in the reverse you'd expect. The surface feature was torn from the upper levels and pushed westward at a quick quick pace.



I lightly superimposed the satellite imagery over the steering map.

Again, those CIMSS maps are not perfect, but that one seemed decent and could be used as a guide here.

It's a 0045Z satellite image posted over a 0000Z steering analysis.

I thought this is how the Ridge would look, pretty far south, which may explain the subsidence over the MDR of the Atlantic. I've noticed how fast this system has been moving and how speed & size is not always a good thing for development either. Thanks for the explanation.
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This season has not impressed me yet, though i have a feeling it will surprise me soon enough.
Tropical Storm Arlene; Eh, Pretty decent storm...
Tropical Storm Bret; Got some attention...
Tropical Storm Cindy; Eh, didnt impress much...
Tropical Storm Don; Ugly, not impressive at all...
Tropical Storm Emily; Eh, Not bad, but not good...
Tropical Storm Franklin; Eh, Kinda Ugly/Worthless...
Tropical Storm Gert; Eh, Decent not too shabby...
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I didnt even know we had 96L. Is it still here?
What did it look like at its best?
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1345. angiest

Quoting MississippiWx:


How would a Fujiwhara occur when 92L has no surface reflection? It hardly has any reflection at all. Basically all of 92L's energy is being absorbed into Gert and yes, it could help strengthen her by providing more moisture and lift.
Thank you, was gonna say much the same but too busy running around.
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Im bout done for today ill be back on tomorrow if i have time with school and all
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Jrweatherman
if 92L is absorbed by Gert a Fujiwhara would occur, and instead of Gert sharing the energy with 92L the energy would focus more and would help Gert some, though it would not trigger any faster intensification... just allow gert to develop convection better...


How would a Fujiwhara occur when 92L has no surface reflection? It hardly has any reflection at all. Basically all of 92L's energy is being absorbed into Gert and yes, it could help strengthen her by providing more moisture and lift.
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Out for now.....Have a Good Evening Folks.
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Quoting TampaSpin:



Without betting my house away......but, I belive 93L will at least get an Invest Status again to monitor once it passes the Eastern Caribbean.


I also believe with the high heat content of the "bath water" down there, I also believe ex-93l could also be a player.......
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so whats are next wave too watch and why?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115455
Jrweatherman,
Thanks, and No Problem...
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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
I'm learnin. How could absorbing 92L affect Gert?


give it more moisture, this whole thing wierd as it is reminds me of a star being sucked apart by a black hole dont ask why
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Jrweatherman
if 92L is absorbed by Gert a Fujiwhara would occur, and instead of Gert sharing the energy with 92L the energy would focus more and would help Gert some, though it would not trigger any faster intensification... just allow gert to develop convection better...

Thanks Dean. As I said a month ago, I like your posts the best!
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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Stupid question, but could Gert go under RI?


No question is stupid, and of course any storm can its just most likely not prolly top out below 70
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Quoting kmanislander:


Wow, where have you been. I miss your circles :-)


Ahhh kmanislander, a true scholar and gentleman! :)

Well sir, in this wonderful economy we have, I have been working twice as hard, making half as much! Thus my "play time" is somewhat limited......

I spend a lot of time advocating for Tax reform here in the US....... thus between my job, my advocacy, and my enjoyment of fine brew...... most times I can just lurk....

Still very much love reading the insightful posts, yours included! Stay safe my friend, with the High Heat Content in the Caribbean, anything heading your way has lots of bath water to feed from!!!
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I just wanted to ask anyone a ?? I see for the next several days we'll have a trough over the US east coast...is this pattern suppose to persist or will they be more ridging taking its place?? I know alot of experts have been sayin more US landfalls this season..any replys appreciated. thanks
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Jrweatherman
if 92L is absorbed by Gert a Fujiwhara would occur, and instead of Gert sharing the energy with 92L the energy would focus more and would help Gert some, though it would not trigger any faster intensification... just allow gert to develop convection better...
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P17L

Marsupially speaking...
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Quoting thelmores:


Likewise Baha...... I consider you Sir as one of fine individuals I mentioned earlier......

I am always lurking, and hope to have more time to Blog...... The Atlantic Hurricane season always brings me out of my shell.....

At peak times however, the blog moves so fast its hard to even keep up, must less participate.

I worry about you and your neighbors this year my friend..... the way the High is setting up further west, I believe your risk is higher this year than any recent year...... stay safe my friend! ;)
I really, really agree with you on this one.... we got a lot of "know-alls" around here who I wish I could fully believe on the "recurve" and "out to sea" calls.... unfortunately I'm the one who's gotten the hits over the last 19 years [starting almost to the week with Andrew], and this year is starting to have that "look".

Don't let blog speed keep you from "surfing" it every now and again. Lots in here have appreciated your input - and wise head - in the past.... and some good advice to the youngster....
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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Stupid question, but could Gert go under RI?


Um...possibly. At least some decent intensification for sure, its small and under rather favorable conditions for intensification plus it's supposed to remain mostly over waters although could come very close to making landfall in Bermuda tomorrow.
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Quoting P451:


Is that what's known as Panama Red?
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Quoting thelmores:


Would you care to expound on the last part? Curious of your thought's......



Yep.......LOOK how far South the Bermuda High has parked.......it is very far South currently it seems than Normal........if it strenghtens some as a storm is forming the Eastern Seaboard will be at a very high risk rather than a recurve out to sea......because it won't get a chance to do the recurve early enough because of the High so far south.


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1325. JLPR2
Quoting BahaHurican:
Want to see it in 36 hrs.... have to admit it has a nice envelope of moisture w/ it...



Yep, needs awhile, this year's waves need 48hrs. xD
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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