Tropical Depression Seven forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:25 PM GMT on August 14, 2011

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The latest in our unusual number of weak tropical cyclones this season, Tropical Depression Seven, has formed to the southeast of Bermuda. Unless you live in Bermuda, TD 7 is not going to be a concern. Radar out of Bermuda shows an area of rain on the northern side of TD 7 beginning to approach the island, and rain from the storm will likely affect the island tonight and on Monday. TD 7 is not well-organized, and has only limited heavy thunderstorms, as seen on visible satellite images. While wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, dry air surrounds TD 7, and is keeping the storm from intensifying. None of the computer models foresee that TD 7 will ever become more than a weak tropical storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of TD 7.

92L
TD 7 isn't the only system Bermuda needs to watch, Invest 92L is a day behind it, and will follow a path very similar to TD 7's. The disturbance will pass close to Bermuda on Tuesday, bringing the island a second round of tropical rains. However, Invest 92L is very disorganized, as seen on recent visible satellite loops. Dry air and close proximity to TD 7 will likely keep 92L from showing significant development over the next two days, with NHC giving the system just a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa we've been tracking over the past few days, Invest 93L, has fallen apart and is no longer a threat to develop. This system will need to be watched once it enters the Caribbean later this week, though. None of the reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone formation predict development of this system or any new disturbances over the coming week.

Jeff Masters

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1425. angiest

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
There is no 93L.
It went down the memory hole?
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1424. angiest

Quoting emcf30:
I have to admit, I am impressed with Gert. I would have never expected her to try to blossom like she is now. Center trying to tighten up a bit. We will see if you can hold on.
What it, she will get herself together and make a run at hurricane. :P
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Model Alert! 00z nam is out now
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1422. pottery
Quoting dfwstormwatch:

why are you showing that? 93's the one thats heading towards the carribean

And ??????
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There is no 93L.
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Quoting TampaSpin:
Do you all realize we are now on our 7th named storm of the year........although of little threat to land so far......its still 7 named storms......this one very active season.......we might just see 20 named storms this year at this pace......JUST SAYN!
You obviously missed all the ACE-related "discussion" we had on here earlier.... lol Something to note about our "little threat to land" season....

Arlene - hit Mexico
Bret - hit the Bahamas
Don - "hit" Texas
Emily - did a driveby on most of the Lesser and Greater Antilles, as well as the Bahamas
Gert - scheduled to do a hit or brush on Bermuda

So four of the seven systems made landfall, and a fifth one may also make landfall.

This is what bothers me. It's ok when it's a Bret or an Emily doing a driveby.... don't want that Cat 5 Taz was looking forward to making any of the above described trips.....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22728
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:



why are you showing that? 93's the one thats heading towards the carribean
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Complete Update

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI






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Full Tropical Storm Gert Update:
Forecast Track~


Watches And Warnings; TS Wind Radius


Forecast Wind Speed Strength:


Hurricane Force Wind Probability:


Latest Discussion:
000
WTNT42 KNHC 150232
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072011
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 14 2011

ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...GERT IS CHARACTERIZED BY A FAIRLY CIRCULAR
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION BUT IS LACKING IN BANDING FEATURES. A
SMALL UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE THAT FORMED OVER THE STORM IS
PROVIDING SOME MODEST OUTFLOW...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS
FROM A FEW HOURS AGO...THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40
KT...WHICH IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES.
GERT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS AND IN A WEAK SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
INTENSIFICATION. BY AROUND 48 HOURS...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE AN
ABRUPT INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR AS GERT APPROACHES A BELT OF
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SLIGHTLY BELOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IN 72 HOURS...PERHAPS
SOONER...GERT IS LIKELY TO BECOME EMBEDDED IN A FRONTAL ZONE AND
TRANSFORMED INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGE HIGH-LATITUDE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE FORWARD SPEED IS
INCREASING AND THE MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 345/10. GERT
IS MOVING BETWEEN A RATHER DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS NEARING
THE U.S. EAST COAST AND A SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH...THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE LATEST
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS NHC
FORECAST.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST
TRACK OF GERT AS ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE LEFT DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS COULD BRING STRONG WINDS CLOSE TO...OR OVER...THE
ISLAND.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 30.2N 63.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 31.9N 63.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 34.7N 62.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 38.5N 59.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 42.0N 55.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 47.0N 40.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


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1415. emcf30
I have to admit, I am impressed with Gert. I would have never expected her to try to blossom like she is now. Center trying to tighten up a bit. We will see if you can hold on.
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1414. pottery
Quoting prweatherwatcher:



12.5 N 53W Invest 93 coc this will be fun to watch!

Looks like we will get some rain from the southern side of whatever that is (LOL) by tomorrow evening.
Not complaining. It's been a very dry 2 weeks.
Most strange for August....
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Quoting prweatherwatcher:
93 l is coming back to live in a hurry feeding of the ITZC. See wv sat.What is the next name? Will be a famous one


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
WTNT42 KNHC 150232
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072011
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 14 2011

ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...GERT IS CHARACTERIZED BY A FAIRLY CIRCULAR
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION BUT IS LACKING IN BANDING FEATURES. A
SMALL UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE THAT FORMED OVER THE STORM IS
PROVIDING SOME MODEST OUTFLOW...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS
FROM A FEW HOURS AGO...THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40
KT...WHICH IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES.
GERT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS AND IN A WEAK SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
INTENSIFICATION. BY AROUND 48 HOURS...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE AN
ABRUPT INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR AS GERT APPROACHES A BELT OF
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SLIGHTLY BELOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IN 72 HOURS...PERHAPS
SOONER...GERT IS LIKELY TO BECOME EMBEDDED IN A FRONTAL ZONE AND
TRANSFORMED INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGE HIGH-LATITUDE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE FORWARD SPEED IS
INCREASING AND THE MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 345/10. GERT
IS MOVING BETWEEN A RATHER DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS NEARING
THE U.S. EAST COAST AND A SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH...THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE LATEST
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS NHC
FORECAST.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST
TRACK OF GERT AS ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE LEFT DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS COULD BRING STRONG WINDS CLOSE TO...OR OVER...THE
ISLAND.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 30.2N 63.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 31.9N 63.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 34.7N 62.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 38.5N 59.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 42.0N 55.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 47.0N 40.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting dfwstormwatch:

harvey



12.5 N 53W Invest 93 coc this will be fun to watch!
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Quoting TampaSpin:


History has shown that you are very predictable about what you might do when a great opportunity might come along..........LOL.......:)


I can remember a couple times Taz "lost it"....... Taz is very passionate....... sometimes that PASSION can be used against you! :D
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1409. j2008
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Wait a minute...was 96L that feature N of Bermuda?


Yep it was. It was more impressive before it was designated. LOL
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1408. emcf30
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Wait a minute...was 96L that feature N of Bermuda?


yep
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1407. help4u
Abe was the best!!A man of great wisdom.
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Quoting j2008:

Yea we did, just breafly today. It desinigrated pretty fast.


Wait a minute...was 96L that feature N of Bermuda?

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Quoting help4u:
The only Fujiwhara effect is this year and last year.No landfalling storms and none in the near future.Another quiet year ahead!!Experts were wrong again!


"Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt." Abraham Lincoln

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Quoting TampaSpin:



Yep.......LOOK how far South the Bermuda High has parked.......it is very far South currently it seems than Normal........if it strenghtens some as a storm is forming the Eastern Seaboard will be at a very high risk rather than a recurve out to sea......because it won't get a chance to do the recurve early enough because of the High so far south.


Yep. That's what I've been thinking since mid July. That high location not only reduces early recurvature possibilities, it also increases SAL concentration in the EATL and keeps Twaves moving at a detrimental 20kt clip to the W.... which means best formation possibilities start AFTER 45W.... also increasing chances that storms will recurve through the Caribbean or across the Bahamas and / or SE US. Unfortunately the pattern, unless we see some modulation this week or next, seems pretty set for the next little while.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22728
TS.Gert's_12amGMT_ATCF and 92L's_12amGMT_ATCF
Starting 14August_12amGMT and ending 15August_12amGMT

The 4 short line-segments represent TS.Gert's path and
the longest line-segment is the straightline projection.
The southernmost grouping of red dots represents 92L's path.

TropicalStormGert's travel-speed was 10.3mph(16.6k/h) on a heading of 354.4degrees(N)
Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6pmGMT then 12amGMT :
TS.Gert was headed toward passage over OsborneHarbour,NovaScotia 3days21hours from now

Copy&paste 27.7n61.4w-28.0n62.2w, 28.0n62.2w-28.1n62.9w, 28.1n62.9w-28.6n63.1w, 28.6n63.1w-29.5n63.2w, bda, 28.6n63.1w-43.716n65.105w, yhz, 21.6n56.6w, 22.3n58.0w, 22.8n59.0w, 23.9n60.0w, 24.8n60.7w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mappings (for 14August_6pmGMT)
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:
96L? We didn't have that yet...


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1401. emcf30
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Stupid question, but could Gert go under RI?

** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072011 GERT 08/15/11 00 UTC **

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 55.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.8%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 5.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 3.4%)
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1400. j2008
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
96L? We didn't have that yet...

Yea we did, just breafly today. It desinigrated pretty fast.
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Quoting TampaSpin:
Do you all realize we are now on our 7th named storm of the year........although of little threat to land so far......its still 7 named storms......this one very active season.......we might just see 20 named storms this year at this pace......JUST SAYN!
It was mentioned earlier on the blog that we could surpass or tie last year.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17807
96L? We didn't have that yet...
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
This season has not impressed me yet, though i have a feeling it will surprise me soon enough.
Tropical Storm Arlene; Eh, Pretty decent storm...
Tropical Storm Bret; Got some attention...
Tropical Storm Cindy; Eh, didnt impress much...
Tropical Storm Don; Ugly, not impressive at all...
Tropical Storm Emily; Eh, Not bad, but not good...
Tropical Storm Franklin; Eh, Kinda Ugly/Worthless...
Tropical Storm Gert; Eh, Decent not too shabby...
Canadian, eh?
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Do you all realize we are now on our 7th named storm of the year........although of little threat to land so far......its still 7 named storms......this one very active season.......we might just see 20 named storms this year at this pace......JUST SAYN!
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Quoting Tazmanian:
here is where we stan




round 1


90L bust

91L bust

94L bust

95L be comes ARLENE

96L bust

97L bust

98L be comes BRET

99L be comes CINDY



round 2


90L be comes DON

91L be comes EMILY

92L bust absorbed by Gert.

93L bust

94L be comes GERT

95L be comes FRANKLIN

96L bust


93L isn't bust, remember it can still develop.
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1393. help4u
Taz is alaways good for a beat down on dumb posts but alaways is an expert on pin-hole eye spotting!!Love Taz keeps the board alive!!
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Quoting prweatherwatcher:
93 l is coming back to live in a hurry feeding of the ITZC. See wv sat.What is the next name? Will be a famous one

harvey
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Quoting TampaSpin:



Yep.......LOOK how far South the Bermuda High has parked.......it is very far South currently it seems than Normal........if it strenghtens some as a storm is forming the Eastern Seaboard will be at a very high risk rather than a recurve out to sea......because it won't get a chance to do the recurve early enough because of the High so far south.




That my friend has been my basic thinking as well..... told my wife earlier this evening, that if the Bahama's or East Coast does not get hit by a Hurricane this year, it will be just short of a miracle......

Having said that, I would gladly take a weak tropical storm that could bring us significant rain.......

But like you, I have a bad feeling about the way things are setting up......
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Quoting TampaSpin:


History has shown that you are very predictable about what you might do when a great opportunity might come along..........LOL.......:)



LOL ok
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Quoting Tazmanian:



would i evere go crazy on you guys


History has shown that you are very predictable about what you might do when a great opportunity might come along..........LOL.......:)
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93 l is coming back to live in a hurry feeding of the ITZC. See wv sat.What is the next name? Will be a famous one
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Quoting TampaSpin:



Course then TAZ would really go crazy on us all........LMAO



would i evere go crazy on you guys
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Rain glorious rain here in Durham, NC...the sound is so soothing

And as for 93L, not looking like it's going to get its act together.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


LOL...I have apparently skipped over him.
He gets alot of minuses anyway.It depends on what setting you have it on.Usually he's blocked.
Quoting twincomanche:
Outta here nothing happening tonight. Like you all. Back as soon as I hear a whisper of some weather in the tropics.
Oh yes it is.Gert looks like a fat cow.Lol.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17807
Quoting TampaSpin:



Sure wish they would show the amount of minus hits one gets from a post..........LOL



Course then TAZ would really go crazy on us all........LMAO
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Quoting P451:
Just starting to show up on Bermuda radar.


looks like its going more wnw then nnw as of now
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Quoting washingtonian115:
You shoulda been poofed him a long time ago.He's been on the blog for a while now making rediculous post.


LOL...I have apparently skipped over him.
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Quoting help4u:
The only Fujiwhara effect is this year and last year.No landfalling storms and none in the near future.Another quiet year ahead!!Experts were wrong again!




Idiot.


poof
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Quoting MississippiWx:


Idiot.

Poof.
You shoulda been poofed him a long time ago.He's been on the blog for a while now making rediculous post.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17807
Quoting MississippiWx:


Idiot.

Poof.



lol
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Quoting MississippiWx:


Idiot.

Poof.



Sure wish they would show the amount of minus hits one gets from a post..........LOL
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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