Tropical Depression Seven forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:25 PM GMT on August 14, 2011

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The latest in our unusual number of weak tropical cyclones this season, Tropical Depression Seven, has formed to the southeast of Bermuda. Unless you live in Bermuda, TD 7 is not going to be a concern. Radar out of Bermuda shows an area of rain on the northern side of TD 7 beginning to approach the island, and rain from the storm will likely affect the island tonight and on Monday. TD 7 is not well-organized, and has only limited heavy thunderstorms, as seen on visible satellite images. While wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, dry air surrounds TD 7, and is keeping the storm from intensifying. None of the computer models foresee that TD 7 will ever become more than a weak tropical storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of TD 7.

92L
TD 7 isn't the only system Bermuda needs to watch, Invest 92L is a day behind it, and will follow a path very similar to TD 7's. The disturbance will pass close to Bermuda on Tuesday, bringing the island a second round of tropical rains. However, Invest 92L is very disorganized, as seen on recent visible satellite loops. Dry air and close proximity to TD 7 will likely keep 92L from showing significant development over the next two days, with NHC giving the system just a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa we've been tracking over the past few days, Invest 93L, has fallen apart and is no longer a threat to develop. This system will need to be watched once it enters the Caribbean later this week, though. None of the reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone formation predict development of this system or any new disturbances over the coming week.

Jeff Masters

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1474. Thrawst
Quoting MrstormX:
Gerty just got a whole lot improved on microwave:



possible formation of a partial eyewall?
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Quoting sunlinepr:

I woutld like to see of D-Max in the morn will help alot with ex-93L's convection problem
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1472. 19N81W
August 11, 2010 ... CALGARY - The recent storm that hammered the Calgary area with golf-ball-sized ... filed following the July 12 storm have caused the total damage estimate for homes, business and vehicles to skyrocket to $400 million. ... "For an expert, it's pretty easy to determine what's hail damage and what isn't." ...
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Fresh radar image; 2 minutes old:

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Quoting spathy:


From what?
Blog stress medication?


It hit Hispaniola and rained for nearly 2 days there, ya know...
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Quoting MrstormX:


I doubt it is a true eye, but radar should show us what is going on very soon.


Yeah...I guess a true eye would show a solid yellow or red circle on radar reflectivity....this one is more green (less intense) and ragged if there is one....
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Quoting 19N81W:
wow the deep tropics just cant produce anything....just trying to produce marginal tropical storm status...I have no doubt we may see a hurricane..but when....has there ever been a season with no hurricanes?


Okay, listen. Go back to my post at 201.. the one that got 62 likes.. because I really am not up to posting that again. If that doesn't convince you that there will be hurricanes this season, absolutely nothing will.
Link
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Emily damage totaled about 5 million 2011 US$.
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Wait...is that the center of Gert on the Bermuda radar...just outside of the 240 km circle? If so...it sort of looks like a ragged eye.


I doubt it is a true eye, but radar should show us what is going on very soon.
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1463. j2008
Quoting NCHurricane2009:




Yep...Gert could be pulling a fast one!

I agree, the radar is looking quite impressive!
Quoting MrstormX:


I agree, playing the waiting game...radar updates every 10 minutes. So next update at 11:31

Cant wait to see it!!
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Quoting MrstormX:


Wait...is that the center of Gert on the Bermuda radar...just outside of the 240 km circle? If so...it sort of looks like a ragged eye.
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What's left of 93L.... Lets see what happens after the islands...
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Quoting Gearsts:
That allows the waters to warm even more so when the cape verde season really gets going we are gona get strong system im afraid.


The only problem is that the CV season has started.
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Checking back this evening on tropics....

...my opinion on Gert's strength is changing...this storm could actually make it to hurricane strength. The circular CDO (central dense overcast) is aligning over the center. It also has a good anticyclone established over it as discussed in the NHC 5 PM EDT advisory discussion. And on top of that, Gert is a small storm...so it also has a higher chance of rapid strengthening


Quoting HurricaneDean07:
According to microwave imagery Gerty might start developing an eye well, should be interestin to see if it keeps up, all it needs to do get stronger winds and finish off the "Eye well" feature on the SE side and we COULD see Hurricane Gert, though its gonna have to take her all to get it done...

Good Night everyone... back in the morning...


Yep...Gert could be pulling a fast one!
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1458. Gearsts
Quoting 19N81W:
wow the deep tropics just cant produce anything....just trying to produce marginal tropical storm status...I have no doubt we may see a hurricane..but when....has there ever been a season with no hurricanes?
That allows the waters to warm even more so when the cape verde season really gets going we are gona get strong system im afraid.
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Quoting j2008:

Center should be appearing soon. I think......


I agree, playing the waiting game...radar updates every 10 minutes. So next update at 11:31
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1456. 19N81W
wow the deep tropics just cant produce anything....just trying to produce marginal tropical storm status...I have no doubt we may see a hurricane..but when....has there ever been a season with no hurricanes?
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1455. j2008
Quoting MrstormX:

Center should be appearing soon. I think......
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TS Gert

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1449. pottery
Quoting prweatherwatcher:



where you at pot?

Trinidad.
11n 61w (aprox)
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Quoting pottery:

Looks like we will get some rain from the southern side of whatever that is (LOL) by tomorrow evening.
Not complaining. It's been a very dry 2 weeks.
Most strange for August....



where you at pot?
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
According to microwave imagery Gerty might start developing an eye well, should be interestin to see if it keeps up, all it needs to do get stronger winds and finish off the "Eye well" feature on the SE side and we COULD see Hurricane Gert, though its gonna have to take her all to get it done...

Good Night everyone... back in the morning...


Once more of Gert comes into radar range, we will get a better gauge of intensity.
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Quoting thelmores:


"Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt." Abraham Lincoln



Abe was paraphrasing a biblical proverb: Proverbs 17:28
"Even fools are thought wise if they keep silent, and discerning if they hold their tongues."
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Quoting AllStar17:
This Gert is poised to be more impressive than 2005's Gert (although 05's Gert did cause 1 fatality):


Yep, but this Gert certainly won't exceed 1999's monster Category 4 Gert....
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Quoting pottery:

www.brohavwx.com is a site in Barbados with links to Barbados radar, lightening strikes etc.
Very good.
If you want to see ex-93L go by there....



thanks i will bookmark it
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This Gert is poised to be more impressive than 2005's Gert (although 05's Gert did cause 1 fatality):
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According to microwave imagery Gerty might start developing an eye well, should be interestin to see if it keeps up, all it needs to do get stronger winds and finish off the "Eye well" feature on the SE side and we COULD see Hurricane Gert, though its gonna have to take her all to get it done...

Good Night everyone... back in the morning...
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1440. pottery
Quoting Tazmanian:
ex93L dos not no when too stop it seen like that ex 93L is fireing off new t-storms

www.brohavwx.com is a site in Barbados with links to Barbados radar, lightening strikes etc.
Very good.
If you want to see ex-93L go by there....
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Quoting j2008:

Yep it was. It was more impressive before it was designated. LOL


Darn...I am getting annoyed from this year's secret society of Invests....first 90L in March...now this 96L that came and went in a matter of under 12 hours...WOW!

90L and 96L can now register themselves in the freemasons society....
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I agree with the NHC right now... 65 Mph Gert...
if something were to occur and gert were to get more organized(Structure wise), then possibly 70 mph, though hurricane status cant be outruled...
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Gerty just got a whole lot improved on microwave:

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1434. emcf30
Quoting Tazmanian:
ex93L dos not no when too stop it seen like that ex 93L is fireing off new t-storms


Yea Taz I have a feeling Ex 93L is going to drive us nuts.
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ex93L dos not no when too stop it seen like that ex 93L is fireing off new t-storms
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114781
1432. emcf30
Quoting angiest:

What it, she will get herself together and make a run at hurricane. :P


With the way Gert is looking at the moment, I would not count that out. She has only about 48 hours before the Sheer starts picking up greatly according to SHIPS intensity and making the transition to Extra-tropical.

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hmm whats that at the bottom of the screen near d.r invest 93 any1?
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Quoting BahaHurican:
You obviously missed all the ACE-related "discussion" we had on here earlier.... lol Something to note about our "little threat to land" season....

Arlene - hit Mexico
Bret - hit the Bahamas
Don - "hit" Texas
Emily - did a driveby on most of the Lesser and Greater Antilles, as well as the Bahamas
Gert - scheduled to do a hit or brush on Bermuda

So four of the seven systems made landfall, and a fifth one may also make landfall.

This is what bothers me. It's ok when it's a Bret or an Emily doing a driveby.... don't want that Cat 5 Taz was looking forward to making any of the above described trips.....


Thanks, I realize the land falling ones......i was just referring to the fact they have been no threat to become anything like TAZ is wishing for. So far just some rain makers.
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TS Gert looks impressive....4 hours and she has become a tight organized storm.
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1427. emcf30
She is a little lop sided. If Gert stays on her projected course, Bermuda should fair well being on the West side of the storm.

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Well, I'm off to bed. I may, if so led, check in around 2 a.m. EDT.

Ya'll rest well, and as for the night shift... keep it going, guys...

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21606
1425. angiest

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
There is no 93L.
It went down the memory hole?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.