Here comes Wilma

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:17 PM GMT on October 15, 2005

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Tropical Depression 24 is here, but it won't be called that for very long. All indications are that this will be Tropical Storm Wilma on Sunday, and Hurricane Wilma by Tuesday. The areal coverage of the deep convection continues to increase, low-level spiral banding has appeared, and upper-level outflow is now good on the west and north sides of the depression. The upper level anti-cyclone has overhead has grown better defined, and wind shear remains a low five knots.

Global computer models forecast that the shear will continue to remain low the next several days over the western Caribbean, where the depression is expected to remain. The chances of this storm growing to hurricane strength are high, and I expect this will be a major hurricane of a least Category 3 strength five days from now. The last three GFDL model runs have consistently been bringing the storm to major hurricane strength.


Figure 1. Historical tracks of tropical depressions that have formed in the western Caribbean in October.

Steering currents are expected to remain weak, and the computer models are forecasting a slow movement to the west or west-southwest the next three days. After that, most of the models agree on a more northerly track towards Cuba as a trough of low pressure swinging across the U.S. exerts a pull on the system. This is a typical track for October systems forming in the western Caribbean, as we can see from the historical track map shown in Figure 1. If this system does eventually affect the U.S., the most likely target would be the Florida Keys or the southwest coast of Florida. Historically, however, most storms forming in October in the western Caribbean miss the U.S. entirely, affecting just the Cayman Islands, Cuba, and the Bahamas. There is a chance that this trough would be too weak to recurve the system, and that instead it would continue west or drift southwest towards Honduras like Category 5 Hurricane Mitch did in October 1998.

Cape Verdes tropical disturbance
A tropical disturbance about 500 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands is experiencing high wind shear that will prohibit development for the next few days as it tracks west-northwest over the open ocean.

Katrina's winds revisited
In my last blog entry on this subject, we discussed the Florida Sun-Sentinel article commenting on new findings that indicate Katrina was only a Category 3 hurricane at first landfall near the mouth of the Mississippi, and a Category 1 hurricane over New Orleans. The article was rather imprecise in its use of the Category system for ranking hurricanes, and I interpreted the article to mean that Katrina was a Category 1 at landfall in Mississippi. Upon re-reading the article, I think what they were trying to say was that Katrina had Category 1 force winds over New Orleans, not that the storm itself was a Category 1. As several of you have pointed out, it is pretty difficult to have a hurricane with a 927 mb pressure (Katrina's pressure at landfall in Mississippi) with just Category 1 winds. Katrina was a least a strong Category 2, and perhaps a weak Category 3 hurricane at landfall in Mississippi. While Katrina did have unusualy high winds aloft compared to surface winds (which NHC noted on one of their discussions during the storm), this difference was not enough to make Katrina a Category 1 hurricane at landfall in Mississippi. Sorry for sowing the confusion!

My next post will be Sunday morning about 10 am.

Jeff Masters

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528. snowboy
5:33 PM GMT on October 16, 2005
thanks for the tip, Code1!
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2555
527. hurricanewayne
4:43 PM GMT on October 16, 2005
SO what the heck is Wilma gonna do after it passes CuBA? Will it continue north or will itturn northeast into the Tampa area??
526. buckeyefan1
2:28 PM GMT on October 16, 2005
Good morning all!! Was up until 3 waiting on "Wilma".
Looks like I'm still waiting. Not sure yet as to how the cold front that is expected to come through next week will affect the US. Hopefully nothing bad will happen, but not much luck with the female named storms this year. We still need the rain here, so that would be nice. Anyone want to take a stab yet as to the path?
525. Computermodelsfail2c
2:17 PM GMT on October 16, 2005
Cane,

I am still reviewing my data and will let you know (Probably tomorrow with my current schedule) my assessment. What are your thoughts? TB is not out of the question, but I want to observe Wilma a bit more.
524. code1
1:53 PM GMT on October 16, 2005
Hey snowboy,
Caught your blog on Leftyy's. If you have cable or dsl, just pull up a second browser. That way you can go back and forth without closing either :)
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872
523. HIEXPRESS
1:32 PM GMT on October 16, 2005
Hey 'ologists -
Will a cold front energize the hurricane (prior to any dry air entraining), will the hurricane bring down a stronger cold front, or both, or - is it just a coincidence?
Member Since: October 13, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 2156
522. caneman
1:23 PM GMT on October 16, 2005
for Computermodelsfail2c:

What is your take on the path of this thing? I've seen some models taking it to TB, others smacking the keys and taking a path similar to Charley. Your thoughts?
Member Since: May 27, 2003 Posts: 14 Comments: 100
521. caneman
1:22 PM GMT on October 16, 2005
000
WTNT34 KNHC 161138
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING LITTLE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL
OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.4 WEST OR
ABOUT 200 MILES... 325 KM... SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

THE DEPRESSION HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT A
GENERAL WEST OR SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK SO SOME
ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST... AND THE DEPRESSION
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA... WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 8 TO 12
INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...17.1 N... 79.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
Member Since: May 27, 2003 Posts: 14 Comments: 100
520. Hecker
1:14 PM GMT on October 16, 2005
Member Since: June 29, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 311
519. Computermodelsfail2c
12:26 PM GMT on October 16, 2005
I will take a stab at it and say that it will be a strong category 2 hurricane in 72 hours. It appears that it will remain in an extremely favorable environment and I would not be surprised if it becomes a major hurricane.
518. caneman
12:16 PM GMT on October 16, 2005
Anyone want to take a stab at the intensity say, 72 hrs from now?
Member Since: May 27, 2003 Posts: 14 Comments: 100
517. IKE
11:46 AM GMT on October 16, 2005
I think a trough is suppose to come down the end of next week...with an associated cold front coming through the panhandle of Florida Friday thru Saturday and with the stronger westerlies this time of year it should force the system more northeastward sparring NW Florida..at least that's what the thinking is now...
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
516. alabamawatcher
11:40 AM GMT on October 16, 2005
Any thoughts on this being the last TD/Hurricane of the season? Any reason why it cannot go in to the Gulf and due north? Since this has been a season for the strangest movements I was wondering.
515. snowboy
10:17 AM GMT on October 16, 2005
Olefosse, current forecast does indeed indicate FLA set for a hit, but it is way far out yet. The TD which will become Wilma is still forming, and until she does and has a well-defined center it is very hard to try to predict a course (which is why the huge cone-of-uncertainty on the NHC forecast).

FLA could get off easier if Wilma goes over Cuba first (and weakens), things look grimmer if she threads the needle and sneaks around the western end (of Cuba). I'd not be making any plans for a big family barbecue for next next weekend...
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2555
514. snowboy
10:01 AM GMT on October 16, 2005
wievs?
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2555
513. olefosse
10:01 AM GMT on October 16, 2005
"Wievs" - geesh - should be "Views", of course. Sorry folks, typo again.
512. snowboy
9:58 AM GMT on October 16, 2005
Hey alpha, welcome aboard. Glad to see you're in PR and out of the way of Wilma. Predictions are that this season is the start of a busy cycle for hurricanes, though seems hard to imagine we'll get a season to top this one anytime soon.
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2555
511. olefosse
9:57 AM GMT on October 16, 2005
Nice to see the discussion here has taken a turn in the right direction, i.e. towards what we are here to discuss - WEATHER, not personal issues.

The latest NHC forecast seems to indicate TD24 hitting Florida, alas. Wievs, anyone? I know it's getting late for most of you, but maybe some are still awake and online?

Link
510. alpha992000
9:50 AM GMT on October 16, 2005
Hey guys!

Greetings from a not so wet (for now) but extremely humid San Juan, Puerto Rico. I've been reading your comments for quite some time and finally today I decided to join the blogs. I've been a weather nut since Hurricane Hugo hit us hard in 1989. I was only 7 years old, but I still remember it well. After that, not much happened (pretty bad Luis, Marilyn and Hortense floodings, but not a direct hit) until Georges in 1998. You all know how the story with that hurricane goes.

As a frustrated meteorologist (can't stand maths but strangely enough I'm good at physics) it's barely impossible not to feel excited at this year's extremely active season. At the same time, hurts to see all the damage caused by all those major hurricanes. While I am praying for a "Hurricane Alpha" to form so we can break previous records, at the same time I hope no one gets hurt by it. I don't know if I'm making much sense (probably not, I have not sleep tonight waiting for the latest on soon to be Wilma), but that's basically how I feel, and a lot of people think I'm crazy because of that. I just want to know how this hurricane season's going to go down in history; if people's going to remember the strange things that happened (Hurricane Vince, Katrina the HUGE storm, such an active June/July...) or if we are going to forget. Hopefully we won't.

OK, I've talked too much for now. Just keep up the great work you guys are doing. I've been learning quite a lot from you. Just one last thing before I go. I would like to know, what's your gut feeling about the 2006's season? Is it going to be less, the same or more active than this year's?

See ya later!


Michelle Marie
Member Since: October 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 126
509. snowboy
9:42 AM GMT on October 16, 2005
Excerpts from latest (5 am) NHC discussion (below), indicates we should have another BIG one on our hands and only a matter of time before Wilma gets officially named:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY GET BETTER ORGANZIED... WITH
EMPHASIS ON THE WORD SLOWLY. DEEP CONVECTION AND BANDING FEATURES
HAVE INCREASED... BUT DRY MID-LEVEL AIR PUNCHING IN FROM THE NORTH
HAS SPLIT THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN IN TWO. BOTH TAFB AND SAB CAME IN
WITH A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5/35 KT. HOWEVER
...OFTENTIMES THE SURFACE WIND FIELD OF LARGE DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS LIKE THIS ONE WILL LAG ABOUT 12 HOURS BEHIND THE
SATELLITE SIGNATURE. THEREFORE... THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS ONLY
BEEN INCREASED TO 30 KT... WHICH MAY BE A LITTLE GENEROUS BASED ON
NEARBY NOAA BUOY WIND REPORTS.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN DRIFTING WEST TO SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE PAST
12 HOURS... WITH A MOTION BETWEEN 240-270 DEGREES AND NO MORE THAN
3 KT. THE CYCLONE IS CAUGHT BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS... WITH THE MORE DOMINANT ONE BEING LOCATED OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WEAK WESTWARD STEERING PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO... (yadda yadda) ... WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO
MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARD WESTERN CUBA OR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL... OR
POSSIBLY EVEN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY DAY 5.

MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT NOTED IN BOTH 00Z UPPER-AIR DATA
ACROSS FLORIDA AND IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT... A VERY FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN AND WARM SSTS OF MORE THAN 29C SHOULD
ALLOW FOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION. IN FACT... THE GLOBAL MODELS
MAINTAIN THE CURRENT DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNEL PATTERN FOR THE NEXT 5
DAYS... AND DECREASE THE VERTICAL SHEAR TO LESS THAN 5 KT AFTER 48
HOURS. SUCH AN ENVIRONMENTAL PATTERN IS USUALLY FAVORABLE FOR RAPID
INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR AND FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES TO BECOME MAJOR
HURRICANES. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE
SHIPS MODEL... WHICH BRINGS THE CYCLONE UP TO 88 KT BY 96 HOURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0900Z 17.0N 79.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 16/1800Z 16.9N 79.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 17/0600Z 16.9N 80.1W 40 KT
36HR VT 17/1800Z 17.0N 80.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 18/0600Z 17.3N 81.2W 60 KT
72HR VT 19/0600Z 18.0N 82.6W 70 KT
96HR VT 20/0600Z 19.5N 83.5W 80 KT
120HR VT 21/0600Z 22.0N 84.0W 95 KT...NEAR WESTERN CUBA

$$
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2555
508. ndcohn
8:08 AM GMT on October 16, 2005
Organization isnt much better... looks like there are 2 low level centers(?) on infrared... It could be a 30kt depression (probably not) at 5AM, Id be pretty surprised if it was wilma though.
507. DocNDswamp
7:35 AM GMT on October 16, 2005
Late nite/good early morning all,

OK, took me over 2 hrs. catching up to posts....don't know where to begin. 1st - sorry to see that we, as the brotherhood of weathernuts, have gone down a rough path tonite...we should agree to disagree at times, some right/some wrong..And tell the truth, we have all been both...but mostly on timing...no, PR system didn't prove trop cyclone, but tell that to our New England friends flooded from over 6 days hvy. rain...and in that period num. surface lows rushed across path (the GFS models many of us quoted) and tried to develope system but couldn't due to strength of ULL...net result same..tropical downpours..finally over for NE... THIS is model going back 2 weeks ago...It correctly showed trouble and it manifested, right to the path/target area...

For the record, I agreed thinking we would get a nor'easter cane out of all that convective activity...cane didn't form, but all else did...

1 week ago, model showed surface low possible where we now find TD24/TS Wilma...as some felt would happen based climatologically and abundance of tropical energy....it's happenin'.....plenty to justify all solutions....WE ARE ALL MOSTLY CORRECT IN OUR FORECASTS of trop trouble from 10 days ago to present as I see it....

C' mon guys...we are all here for the love/hate of weather...if we pick, let's do it in a gentleman's manner... I value everyone's positive input..as we all have contributions to make...

If you really need to piss on someone, piss on me, hell I'm from Louisiana and plenty used to it lately! Don't really want to respond to some of the crap dished out lately towards those "idiot people who weren't prepared in LA"...but you've been following.....

Tropical Weather discussion:
TD 24 looking healthy...should be TS Wilma by 11 am advisory or sooner if convective activity remains constant/increases...showing good organization around llc, esp. w quad indicating far less shear..would expect substantial strengthening possible next 24-36 hrs. and beyond. Good outflow pattern, although orientation still evidences slight tilt northeastward toward remnant trof. Main steering guidance weak as system is on fringes of high pressure ridge to the north.. w/ a weakness in atmosphere (w/sw flow aloft) progressing easterly across S FL/Bahamas that could tug it, but probably bypass, leaving system moving slowly westward under building Gulf ridge...until next trof approaches-timing uncertain...

As for steering clues based on ULL associated movement - still looking for possibility on WV Loop...the type I'm looking for is generally considered small w/ little convective activity, and referred to as an upper low feature - not the monster ULL's we've seen common along E Coast recently. Watching slight upper swirl poss E of Yucatan..might be nothing....

However, the ULL northeast of islands near 19N 61W appears to me as not a major steering factor on Carib storm...but I've been observing characteristics of that ULL that point to signs of future possible sub-tropical development itself...as ULL's go, it's not a deep upper atmos. system, smaller more mid-sized...conversion wouldn't be difficult....

Just have to keep watching and learning as we go.....

Sheesh man, been writing another damn hour and half...way too slow to keep up... everyone I intended to reach w/ this probably asleep....Guess I will too.....
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4803
506. hurricanewayne
5:21 AM GMT on October 16, 2005
Damn! looks like the west coast of FL isnt going to escape this year without a Hurricane. jeezz
505. CosmicEvents
5:00 AM GMT on October 16, 2005
bu-bye
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5689
504. leftyy420
4:55 AM GMT on October 16, 2005
iam noit back. going back my blog now peace
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
503. Skyepony (Mod)
4:52 AM GMT on October 16, 2005
welcome back Lefty!

Before i'm off to dreamland once again, I dreamed lastnight that i's hit by a hurricane. funnything i was at clemson (a school i once attended), to see a football game (though it's not something i did but like 2x's), but in the past,i've only dreamed of the canes when they were comin for me (david~ jeanne).
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 226 Comments: 39442
502. subtropic
4:50 AM GMT on October 16, 2005
lefty, I was wondering that myself. The way I saw it, the ridge retreating to the west would be what allowed it to turn north. Seems odd that this would introduce westerly sheer. Unless there is something else going on that I am not seeing yet.
Member Since: August 29, 2002 Posts: 209 Comments: 4434
501. leftyy420
4:48 AM GMT on October 16, 2005
hawke where do you see it suggest the strong westerly shear. if u don;t mind
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
500. subtropic
4:47 AM GMT on October 16, 2005
Thanks lefty.
Member Since: August 29, 2002 Posts: 209 Comments: 4434
499. leftyy420
4:45 AM GMT on October 16, 2005
quick post as i am no longer posting in here. i am now only posting in my personal blog. u guys should check out the 8oopm gfs run. looking like charley

Link
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
498. subtropic
4:44 AM GMT on October 16, 2005
David,
The way they name the storms in the Pacific, it is broken into regions (ie, they don't use one set of names for the entire Pacific basin), so I doubt they have a naming scheme beyond the standard one.
Here is a link to names. Scroll down for the various Pacific region names: Link
Member Since: August 29, 2002 Posts: 209 Comments: 4434
497. 8888888889gg
4:39 AM GMT on October 16, 2005
dos any one no if the East Pacific have Greek alphabet or what do the do if they run out? any one let me no
496. code1
4:38 AM GMT on October 16, 2005
Nite gables.
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872
495. Hawkeyewx
4:36 AM GMT on October 16, 2005
For what it's worth, the 0z GFS just out takes TD24 west a bit faster, turns it north through the Yucatan channel, makes it a strong hurricane, then abruptly accelerates the storm ene into the west-central coast of Florida as the strong westerlies grab ahold of it. The GFS also suggests the upper level westerly shear may become quite strong before the storm would make landfall. This will no doubt change many times over the next several days, and with luck Wilma won't even hit the US, but this scenario is certainly a possibility.

Link
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1924
494. cirrocumulus
4:35 AM GMT on October 16, 2005
Later!
Member Since: September 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606
493. Skyepony (Mod)
4:34 AM GMT on October 16, 2005
Cosmic, I remember the eastward moving storm. I guess, i've never really mentioned why I look at the models (though i'm well aware of your view of them this time of year). In my life i've found: if that a model has a line through my house i'm safe from the worst of the storm. The rest watch to see if one seems to have a good handle, them take with grain of salt.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 226 Comments: 39442
492. subtropic
4:32 AM GMT on October 16, 2005
nite cgables.
Member Since: August 29, 2002 Posts: 209 Comments: 4434
491. cgableshurrycanegal
4:31 AM GMT on October 16, 2005
this could also do a Mitch... if it sits and stews long enough and drifts SW far enough it might not get caught up by any trof of front... I think we're going to be stuck wondering for several days, once again.
On that firm note, I'm off to sleepy-land!
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 212
490. subtropic
4:27 AM GMT on October 16, 2005
cirro.. I rarely make predictions on here (I do that for myself), but my gut tells me this could indeed be something along the lines of Irene.
Member Since: August 29, 2002 Posts: 209 Comments: 4434
489. cgableshurrycanegal
4:26 AM GMT on October 16, 2005
Cosmic, I believe you are referring to an L storm that did a great deal of damage to PR as well, now that you mention it!
subtropic, yes, thx, responded.
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 212
488. cirrocumulus
4:25 AM GMT on October 16, 2005
Is this another Irene type path?
Member Since: September 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606
487. CosmicEvents
4:23 AM GMT on October 16, 2005
skyponey.....I wish that more models would show this as well.....but I just don't believe the models are as accurate at this time of year as compared to August-September anyway. I think more of general climatology mixed in with chaos theory at this time of year. I recall a cyclone about 5 years ago that was in a similar spot to TD24 that wound up moving unexpectedly towards the East!....and was a fairly signifigant storm when it hit the Virgin Islands. We'll see.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5689
486. cirrocumulus
4:22 AM GMT on October 16, 2005
88888: I believe we are tied now with 1933? And next year will be big again but the intensity could be hard to predict on whether and if a category five will drive into the United States as an actual category five. There could be a few less storms next year but we are in a pattern of numerous hurricanes.
Member Since: September 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606
485. subtropic
4:18 AM GMT on October 16, 2005
cgables... you have mail.
Member Since: August 29, 2002 Posts: 209 Comments: 4434
484. FLPanhandle
4:18 AM GMT on October 16, 2005
If it continues probably will be Wilma by 4 AM Advisory.
483. cgableshurrycanegal
4:17 AM GMT on October 16, 2005
Hi all, hey code.
it's been a rough few days, and now I see the blob that's trying to eat Jamaica might want to get us in FL??? UGH.
Local news coming on late due to NASCAR, wonder what they'll have to say...
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 212
482. 8888888889gg
4:17 AM GMT on October 16, 2005
would this be the frist time evere that we had a W storm and would this be the frist time evere that we evere got from A to W wow what a year i do not think we will see this for the next 2 years any ? on this let me no
481. cirrocumulus
4:14 AM GMT on October 16, 2005
FLPanhandle:

Storms are exploding in a good pattern I would say. This storm looks like it is going to transport energy in in a classic pattern.
Member Since: September 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606
480. Skyepony (Mod)
4:14 AM GMT on October 16, 2005
cosmic i was just contimplating that thought. That's the reason I don't find the canadian all that far fetched. The ull that's been behind the band of moisture all this time, suddenly ends up close enough to pull from td as the ull gets swept up by the cool front that cleared fl today. ull heads northeast, ripping up the following td. This could be our hope. Wish more than one model was showin it.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 226 Comments: 39442
479. subtropic
4:11 AM GMT on October 16, 2005
code1, I just sent her an email to her WU mail.
Member Since: August 29, 2002 Posts: 209 Comments: 4434
478. FLPanhandle
4:11 AM GMT on October 16, 2005
Intellicast has the 3:30 AM Sat loop.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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