Four invests in the Atlantic; fair weather in Arctic to drive rapid sea ice loss

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:38 PM GMT on August 12, 2011

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It's a busy day in the tropical Atlantic, with the National Hurricane Center tracking four areas of interest (Invests.) None of these systems is a danger to any land areas over the next three days. The disturbance of most concern is the one farthest from land, a tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa two days ago. This wave, (Invest 93L), is located about 500 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, and is moving westward at 15 - 20 mph. Recent visible satellite loops show that 93L has lost some of its heavy thunderstorms since yesterday, and the system is poorly organized, though there is a good deal of spin to the system. There is dry air to its north that is interfering with development. The SHIPS model and University of Wisconsin CIMSS wind shear analysis are showing high wind shear in excess 20 knots affecting 93L, which has undoubtedly contributed to the storm's loss of organization. Sea surface temperatures are 27.5°C, which is one degree above the 26.5°C threshold usually needed to support a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite photo of the four Invests in the Atlantic today.

Forecast for 93L
High wind shear above 20 knots is predicted along 93L's path through Saturday afternoon, followed by a drop to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, for the succeeding four days. This should allow the storm to organize over the weekend. The latest 00Z and 06Z model runs of the four best models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET), have only one model, the GFS, that is indicating significant development of 93L. This model brings 93L near the northern Lesser Antilles Islands by Wednesday. NHC gave 93L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8am outlook. Given 93L's recent struggles, I'd put these odds at 30%.

92L
An African wave midway between the northern Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, near 18°N 45°W, is moving west-northwest at 20 mph. This system, (Invest 92L), is being given a 40% chance of development by NHC. Recent visible satellite loops show a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, but no signs of a surface circulation. A Windsat pass from 8:04 am EDT this morning also showed no surface circulation, and noted top winds of around 35 mph. Water vapor satellite loops show that a large area of dry air surrounds 92L, and this dry air is causing problems for the storm. The SHIPS model and University of Wisconsin CIMSS wind shear analysis are showing moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting 92L. Sea surface temperatures are 27 - 27.5°C, which is a degree above the 26.5°C threshold usually needed to support a tropical storm.

Forecast for 92L
Moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots is predicted along 92L's path over the coming five days, which should allow the storm to organize if it can handle the dry air surrounding it. The latest 00Z and 06Z model runs of the four best models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET) show weak development or no development of 92L, and NHC gave 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8am outlook. A steady west-northwest motion for 92L is predicted by all of the models, which should make the storm miss the Lesser Antilles by a comfortable margin. However, Bermuda may be at risk from 92L next week.

94L
A broad low pressure system about 700 miles northeast of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands has developed a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, and may be a threat to become a tropical depression early next week. This system, (Invest 94L), is currently headed west-southwest at 10 mph, but is expected to turn northwest later today. Recent visible satellite loops show some spin to the cloud pattern at middle levels of the atmosphere, but no signs of a surface circulation. This system is also battling dry air, which is keeping the its heavy thunderstorms relatively meager. The SHIPS model is showing moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting 94L. Sea surface temperatures are 28°C.

Forecast for 94L
Moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots is predicted along 94L's path over the coming five days, which should allow slow development, if it can handle the dry air surrounding it. None of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET) show no development of 94L, and NHC gave 94L just a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8am outlook. Bermuda is the only land area that needs to be concerned with 94L.

95L
The final invest out there is an area of disturbed weather along on old frontal boundary several hundred miles off the coast of North Carolina. This sytem, Invest 95L, is headed northeastwards out to sea, and is not a threat to any land areas.



Figure 2. Arctic sea ice extent on August 11, 2011, was the 2nd lowest on record for the date. The Northeast Passage and Northwest Passage (southern route) were both ice-free. Image credit: UIUC Cryosphere Today.

Arctic sea ice poised to undergo record decline in mid-August
A strong high pressure system with a central pressure of 1035 mb has developed over the Arctic north of Alaska, and will bring clear skies and warm southerly winds to northeast Siberia and the Arctic during the coming week, accelerating Arctic sea ice loss. Widespread areas of northeastern Siberia are expected to see air temperatures 4 - 12°C (7 - 22°F) above average during the coming week, and the clockwise flow of air around the high pressure system centered north of Alaska will pump this warm air into the Arctic. Arctic sea ice extent, currently slightly higher than the record low values set in 2007, should fall to to its lowest extent for the date by the third week of August as the clear skies and warm southerly winds melt ice and push it away from the coast of Siberia. This weather pattern, known as the Arctic Dipole, was also responsible for the record sea ice loss in 2007, but was stronger that year. The weather conditions that led to the 2007 record were quite extreme--one 2008 study led by Jennifer Kay of the National Center for Atmospheric Research showed that 2007's combination of high pressure and sunny skies in the Arctic occur, on average, only once every 10 - 20 years. The 2011 summer weather pattern in the Arctic has not been nearly as extreme as in 2007, but the total sea ice volume has declined significantly since 2007, leading to much loss of old, thick, multi-year ice, making it easier to set a new low extent record with less extreme weather conditions. The GFS model is predicting that the Arctic Dipole will weaken by 8 - 15 days from now, with cloudier weather and weaker high pressure over the Arctic. This should slow down the rate of Arctic sea ice loss to very near the record low values observed in 2007. It remains to be seen if 2011 Arctic sea ice extent will surpass the all-time low set in September 2007; it will be close, and will depend on the weather conditions of late August and early September, which are not predictable at this time. It is already possible to sail completely around the North Pole in ice-free waters through the Northeast Passage and Northwest Passage, according to sea ice maps maintained by the UIUC Cryosphere Today website. This marks the fourth consecutive year--and the fourth time in recorded history--both of these Arctic shipping routes have melted free. Mariners have been attempting to sail these passages since 1497. This year, the Northeast Passage along the north coast of Russia melted free several weeks earlier than its previous record early opening.

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I'll have a new post by 1pm Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting stormhank:
Pardon me if Im wrong ,but I cant recall the last season where the first six named storms were all TS's so if all the hurricane forecasts hold true that means most of the remaining named storms for this year could possibly be our worst storms before the season ends, I also see the MJO is showin alot of upward motion between now and the end of the month for the eastern atlantic and Africa so the big boys/girls may make their appearance before August ends


Gaze eyes and thoughts back to 2002 and you'll find your answer.

That is the only season to do that, however.
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Other than Alex, 2010 didn't get a hurricane until August 23. From July 1 to August 21, all we had was TD2, Bonnie, Colin, and TD5. There were a lot of people calling that season pathetic too.. In that same timeframe we've had Bret, Cindy, Don, Emily, and Franklin, and we could probably squeeze one or two more out of our current invests.

Although even with all these small storms, we are probably behind on ACE. However, we are ahead of last year at this time in terms of ACE.
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


I disagree. Arlene, Bret, Emily, and probably Cindy looked as good or better than Franklin at one point in their lives.. Bret when he was developing an eye, Emily when she was first classified and looked a lot stronger than she actually was.
I'm crying Franklin is only 40 mph.What a sad day.
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1458. msphar
93 is a massive 10 degree wide by 10 degree latitude. the center was last seen near 12 N 34W. not very threatening at present.
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Quoting aquak9:
Good Saturday morning from NE Fla. I don't see many of the weekend crew here- Hi AtHome, got any donuts?

The tropics have moved forward, NHC's been a little busier, and the models are flopping around like a wet fish on a hot boat.

Looks like only 93L may have a chance to get past the curiosity stage; still gonna hang with the 15/50 rule.

Who wants coffee?

Coffee sounds good. I'd like a tall half-skinny/half 1% extra-hot split-quad-shot (two shots decaf, two shots regular) latte with whip, please. Or, you know, just black, if that's too much trouble. ;-)

The tropics are indeed ticking. I sense a lot of frustration with Mother Nature because she's produced nothing yet but a bunch of relative runts that have stayed for the most part over open water--six named storms with a total ACE of just 10.6, less than was accumulated on just September 15th last year--but if I know her, she's gonna make up for it. Big time. By way of comparison, last year on this date there was nothing going on; it had been six days since Colin spun out north of Bermuda, and Danielle's birth was still nine days away.

Watch and wait. That's my advice.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13461
Pardon me if Im wrong ,but I cant recall the last season where the first six named storms were all TS's so if all the hurricane forecasts hold true that means most of the remaining named storms for this year could possibly be our worst storms before the season ends, I also see the MJO is showin alot of upward motion between now and the end of the month for the eastern atlantic and Africa so the big boys/girls may make their appearance before August ends
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1439. tropicfreak

Poll time!
What will 92L be at the next advisory?
A.20%
B.30%
C.40%
D.50%

What will 93L be in the next advisory?
A.20%
B.30%
C.40%
D.50%
What will 94L be in the next advisory?
A.20%
B.30%
C.40%
D.50%
How strong will Franklin be?
A.40 mph
B.45 mph
C.50 mph
D.60 mph
Will there be any new circles? If so where
A.Yes
B.No
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Breezy? Its certainly been that already here for the summer. Its like the summer that never was lately.
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1453. aquak9
Quoting HurricanePookie:


Shoot, Aquak9, I'm dying to hear it!


You drive a dependable car, that you keep quite clean. Your home is orderly, and you look at expiration dates on everything you purchase. You don't like loud, noisy, self-centered people.

Yeah?
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Quoting tropicfreak:
I'll tell ya, Franklin's putting on quite a show this morning.

The greatest fish storms season ever.
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Quoting aquak9:
EEEWWWW!!! CocaCola for breakfast?? T'Freak you're scarin' me!

HurricanePookie- if you're still here? I did a CoffeeCast a few weeks back, like a palm reading defined by the coffee you drink. Wanna hear yours?


Well what else is there to drink? I don't like coffee, nor am I a big fan of orange juice.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6874
what happened to 93? its august for poops sake.. 2011= the season with a bunch of wimpy little 40mph TS
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If you look at the archived TWO's, that area just northeast of the Azores/north west of Spain is still part of what was Emily



(according to post 1411, looks like it has better convection than franklin/the invests)
Should be out of the frame by tonight
Just thought it was kind of interesting that she can still be traced :P

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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN...LOCATED ABOUT 460 MILES
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

A WELL-DEFINED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A
SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM
IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING...BUT
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT AROUND 20 MPH.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ONLY
LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN A FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA
IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
OR NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 131145
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN...LOCATED ABOUT 460 MILES
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

A WELL-DEFINED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A
SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM
IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING...BUT
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT AROUND 20 MPH.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ONLY
LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN A FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA
IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
OR NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT31 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT21 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT1.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6874
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
This is pretty sad. Franklin is only a 40mph TS but he looks like the best one we have had this season in terms of looks.


I disagree. Arlene, Bret, Emily, and probably Cindy looked as good or better than Franklin at one point in their lives.. Bret when he was developing an eye, Emily when she was first classified and looked a lot stronger than she actually was.
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Quoting aquak9:
EEEWWWW!!! CocaCola for breakfast?? T'Freak you're scarin' me!

HurricanePookie- if you're still here? I did a CoffeeCast a few weeks back, like a palm reading defined by the coffee you drink. Wanna hear yours?


Shoot, Aquak9, I'm dying to hear it!
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Between my post and aquak's post, 5 minutes. Wow, kinda strange when we have several disturbances and a TS.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6874
1443. aquak9
hey aussie- I gotta forward it on to my work email, so I can print it. Good job there.
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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
This is pretty sad. Franklin is only a 40mph TS but he looks like the best one we have had this season in terms of looks.


Arlene looked pretty darn good!
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6874
Quoting aquak9:
Hey gambler. No high demands for you, eh?
Here's the bread.
There's the toaster.
Knock yourself out. :)

Can ya come here in 12hrs and cook me some breakfast please.

Btw, did ya manage to get the UNICEF PDF?
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This is pretty sad. Franklin is only a 40mph TS but he looks like the best one we have had this season in terms of looks.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Poll time!

What will 92L be at the next advisory?
A.20%
B.30%
C.40%
D.50%

What will 93L be in the next advisory?
A.20%
B.30%
C.40%
D.50%

What will 94L be in the next advisory
A.20%
B.30%
C.40%
D.50%

How strong will Franklin be?
A.40 mph
B.45 mph
C.50 mph
D.60 mph

Will there be any new circles? If so where
A.Yes(off of Africa)
B.No
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6874


The remnants of Franklin aren't much, it appears to be the low northwest of the Iberian Peninsula attached to the front.
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1437. aquak9
EEEWWWW!!! CocaCola for breakfast?? T'Freak you're scarin' me!

HurricanePookie- if you're still here? I did a CoffeeCast a few weeks back, like a palm reading defined by the coffee you drink. Wanna hear yours?
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Quoting Cotillion:
Mornin' Aqua. Already breakfasted, no demands for me.




Parents never told you to say please? ;)


Oh might as well, sorry I'm starving.


PLEASE :D
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6874
1435. msphar
92L seems to be jerkin 93L with a chain of weather.
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Quoting aquak9:
Good Saturday morning from NE Fla. I don't see many of the weekend crew here- Hi AtHome, got any donuts?

The tropics have moved forward, NHC's been a little busier, and the models are flopping around like a wet fish on a hot boat.

Looks like only 93L may have a chance to get past the curiosity stage; still gonna hang with the 15/50 rule.

Who wants coffee?


Got the coffee already (Home Roasted Costa Rican coffee, fresh ground, with light cream). It's keeping me alert so I can keep an eye on that 93L here in St. Pete. This one concerns me, especially after seeing some of the latest model runs. Have no desire for a TC knocking on my back door, although a weak system with some more rain would be nice for my plants.

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Mornin' Aqua. Already breakfasted, no demands from me.


Quoting tropicfreak:


Cook me up a sausage biscuit with egg sandwich, scrambled eggs and pancakes. Oh and while you're at it, a glass of coke would be nice, I need it for tracking the busy tropics today.


Parents never told you to say please? ;)
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Quoting WxLogic:


I expect Franklin to be absorbed and bring breezy to windy conditions to areas of Europe(if its structure survives), but not much than what they might already be used to.


Quite.

Yeah, I wasn't being too facetious on the previous page...

This summer hasn't been the best, though there have been worse in recent memory.
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Quoting WxLogic:


Can't be ruled out since SAT loops do show this area being quite persistent and moving WSW to SW away from from 94L.


It sure does look like it's trying to run from 94L to the SW on SAT loops.

I'll be curious to see if this gets itself together and that model verifies. Just wish I could remember where I saw it. Seems like it was a Thursday run.

I can remember seeing that model run and thinking that it was a bit of a surprise feature (or at least I was surprised).

Should be something to watch over the weekend.
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Quoting aquak9:
Hey gambler. No high demands for you, eh?
Here's the bread.
There's the toaster.
Knock yourself out. :)


Cook me up a sausage biscuit with egg sandwich, scrambled eggs and pancakes. Oh and while you're at it, a glass of coke would be nice, I need it for tracking the busy tropics today.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6874
1429. msphar
the reality of 93L is less impressive than the projected model tracks. I like that. hopefully it will be yet another wossie storm event.
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1428. aquak9
Hey gambler. No high demands for you, eh?
Here's the bread.
There's the toaster.
Knock yourself out. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1427. WxLogic
Quoting largeeyes:
Whats the effect of Franklin and the front going to be on Europe next week?


I expect Franklin to be absorbed and bring breezy to windy conditions to areas of Europe(if its structure survives), but not much than what they might already be used to.
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I'll tell ya, Franklin's putting on quite a show this morning.

Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6874
1425. WxLogic
Quoting whepton3:


Interesting logic...

Saw a model a couple of days back... though I can't remember which one or which run that suggested the start of something in that area near PR or NE of Hispaniola first part of this coming week.


Can't be ruled out since SAT loops do show this area being quite persistent and moving WSW to SW away from from 94L.
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Whats the effect of Franklin and the front going to be on Europe next week?
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Quoting aquak9:
Good Saturday morning from NE Fla. I don't see many of the weekend crew here- Hi AtHome, got any donuts?

The tropics have moved forward, NHC's been a little busier, and the models are flopping around like a wet fish on a hot boat.

Looks like only 93L may have a chance to get past the curiosity stage; still gonna hang with the 15/50 rule.

Who wants coffee?
Morning Water Puppy and crew. I'll take my coffee with eggs, bacon, grits, and biscuts thank you. Please
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Pretty good article on New Orleans residents who ended up in Houston Post Katrina.

Did a lot of volunteer work at the Astrodome for those few weeks between Katrina and Rita, most of it in the processing area where the buses arrived and later working to get families reunited.

It was all pretty sobering and ended with that crazy evacuation that Rita caused.

Link
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The SHIPS model takes 92L and 93L to Hurricanes in 5 days or less. They take 94L to 73mph which is an estimate, so they all could be hurricanes. I dont see how. Whats wrong with 93L?
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1420. rod2635
The Conus bakes in drought and heat
The Tropics yield up pitiable treats
Pathetic storms and tepid waves
Will no Name step up to save the day?
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1419. HCW
Yikes


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Quoting msphar:
Putting a name on storms is good for Insureance companies. I get no joy out of those events but they certainly get financial benefits.


They have been weak and pathetic so far, but at some point during their lives...all six storms met the requirements to be classified.

It is impossible to deny that.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15788
Quoting WxLogic:
Watch the disturbed region as NE of PR as a piece of energy attempts to break off from 94L:





If it's successful at such then we could have 96L coming soon.


Interesting logic...

Saw a model a couple of days back... though I can't remember which one or which run that suggested the start of something in that area near PR or NE of Hispaniola first part of this coming week.
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1416. aquak9
Good Saturday morning from NE Fla. I don't see many of the weekend crew here- Hi AtHome, got any donuts?

The tropics have moved forward, NHC's been a little busier, and the models are flopping around like a wet fish on a hot boat.

Looks like only 93L may have a chance to get past the curiosity stage; still gonna hang with the 15/50 rule.

Who wants coffee?
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06z NAM FWIW

92L and 94L

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15788
1414. WxLogic
Quoting AussieStorm:

We could have Gert, Harvey and Irene by this time next week.


We could...

00Z CMC now showing development of 93L @144HR in the W Caribbean when before it wasn't which now joins ECMWF, GFS, and to some extend NGP.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Exposed LLC.

Another weak system on the way?



That would be pre-Gert, (94L) Which one has the models taking it to Bermuda? 92L or 94L? Either way they're going to get whacked.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.