Four invests in the Atlantic; fair weather in Arctic to drive rapid sea ice loss

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:38 PM GMT on August 12, 2011

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It's a busy day in the tropical Atlantic, with the National Hurricane Center tracking four areas of interest (Invests.) None of these systems is a danger to any land areas over the next three days. The disturbance of most concern is the one farthest from land, a tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa two days ago. This wave, (Invest 93L), is located about 500 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, and is moving westward at 15 - 20 mph. Recent visible satellite loops show that 93L has lost some of its heavy thunderstorms since yesterday, and the system is poorly organized, though there is a good deal of spin to the system. There is dry air to its north that is interfering with development. The SHIPS model and University of Wisconsin CIMSS wind shear analysis are showing high wind shear in excess 20 knots affecting 93L, which has undoubtedly contributed to the storm's loss of organization. Sea surface temperatures are 27.5°C, which is one degree above the 26.5°C threshold usually needed to support a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite photo of the four Invests in the Atlantic today.

Forecast for 93L
High wind shear above 20 knots is predicted along 93L's path through Saturday afternoon, followed by a drop to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, for the succeeding four days. This should allow the storm to organize over the weekend. The latest 00Z and 06Z model runs of the four best models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET), have only one model, the GFS, that is indicating significant development of 93L. This model brings 93L near the northern Lesser Antilles Islands by Wednesday. NHC gave 93L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8am outlook. Given 93L's recent struggles, I'd put these odds at 30%.

92L
An African wave midway between the northern Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, near 18°N 45°W, is moving west-northwest at 20 mph. This system, (Invest 92L), is being given a 40% chance of development by NHC. Recent visible satellite loops show a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, but no signs of a surface circulation. A Windsat pass from 8:04 am EDT this morning also showed no surface circulation, and noted top winds of around 35 mph. Water vapor satellite loops show that a large area of dry air surrounds 92L, and this dry air is causing problems for the storm. The SHIPS model and University of Wisconsin CIMSS wind shear analysis are showing moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting 92L. Sea surface temperatures are 27 - 27.5°C, which is a degree above the 26.5°C threshold usually needed to support a tropical storm.

Forecast for 92L
Moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots is predicted along 92L's path over the coming five days, which should allow the storm to organize if it can handle the dry air surrounding it. The latest 00Z and 06Z model runs of the four best models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET) show weak development or no development of 92L, and NHC gave 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8am outlook. A steady west-northwest motion for 92L is predicted by all of the models, which should make the storm miss the Lesser Antilles by a comfortable margin. However, Bermuda may be at risk from 92L next week.

94L
A broad low pressure system about 700 miles northeast of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands has developed a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, and may be a threat to become a tropical depression early next week. This system, (Invest 94L), is currently headed west-southwest at 10 mph, but is expected to turn northwest later today. Recent visible satellite loops show some spin to the cloud pattern at middle levels of the atmosphere, but no signs of a surface circulation. This system is also battling dry air, which is keeping the its heavy thunderstorms relatively meager. The SHIPS model is showing moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting 94L. Sea surface temperatures are 28°C.

Forecast for 94L
Moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots is predicted along 94L's path over the coming five days, which should allow slow development, if it can handle the dry air surrounding it. None of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET) show no development of 94L, and NHC gave 94L just a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8am outlook. Bermuda is the only land area that needs to be concerned with 94L.

95L
The final invest out there is an area of disturbed weather along on old frontal boundary several hundred miles off the coast of North Carolina. This sytem, Invest 95L, is headed northeastwards out to sea, and is not a threat to any land areas.



Figure 2. Arctic sea ice extent on August 11, 2011, was the 2nd lowest on record for the date. The Northeast Passage and Northwest Passage (southern route) were both ice-free. Image credit: UIUC Cryosphere Today.

Arctic sea ice poised to undergo record decline in mid-August
A strong high pressure system with a central pressure of 1035 mb has developed over the Arctic north of Alaska, and will bring clear skies and warm southerly winds to northeast Siberia and the Arctic during the coming week, accelerating Arctic sea ice loss. Widespread areas of northeastern Siberia are expected to see air temperatures 4 - 12°C (7 - 22°F) above average during the coming week, and the clockwise flow of air around the high pressure system centered north of Alaska will pump this warm air into the Arctic. Arctic sea ice extent, currently slightly higher than the record low values set in 2007, should fall to to its lowest extent for the date by the third week of August as the clear skies and warm southerly winds melt ice and push it away from the coast of Siberia. This weather pattern, known as the Arctic Dipole, was also responsible for the record sea ice loss in 2007, but was stronger that year. The weather conditions that led to the 2007 record were quite extreme--one 2008 study led by Jennifer Kay of the National Center for Atmospheric Research showed that 2007's combination of high pressure and sunny skies in the Arctic occur, on average, only once every 10 - 20 years. The 2011 summer weather pattern in the Arctic has not been nearly as extreme as in 2007, but the total sea ice volume has declined significantly since 2007, leading to much loss of old, thick, multi-year ice, making it easier to set a new low extent record with less extreme weather conditions. The GFS model is predicting that the Arctic Dipole will weaken by 8 - 15 days from now, with cloudier weather and weaker high pressure over the Arctic. This should slow down the rate of Arctic sea ice loss to very near the record low values observed in 2007. It remains to be seen if 2011 Arctic sea ice extent will surpass the all-time low set in September 2007; it will be close, and will depend on the weather conditions of late August and early September, which are not predictable at this time. It is already possible to sail completely around the North Pole in ice-free waters through the Northeast Passage and Northwest Passage, according to sea ice maps maintained by the UIUC Cryosphere Today website. This marks the fourth consecutive year--and the fourth time in recorded history--both of these Arctic shipping routes have melted free. Mariners have been attempting to sail these passages since 1497. This year, the Northeast Passage along the north coast of Russia melted free several weeks earlier than its previous record early opening.

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I'll have a new post by 1pm Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting gulfbreeze:
What is that in the lower right?

You need an eye exam..... He already said it was in the lower right when he posted the image.
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Good morning folks

Notwithstanding the all that is going on in the Atl. things are relatively quiet, as strange as that may sound. We have several features active at one time but none that are doing much that is impressive.This is not entirely surprising given that vertical instability in the Atlantic is below normal for this time of year as are the odds of tropical storm formation. This is shown in the images posted below.

It may take a few days for this to swing the other way
and in the case of 93L probably not until it is very close to the islands near 55W which is a known sweet spot for weak systems.

vertical instability



Climatology for TS formation probability



Anomaly for TS formation



TS formation probability, real time

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Quoting prcane4you:
So,fishes take care/


I have friends with shipping and fishing interests in this area....may they take care too.
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Quoting Jedkins01:


I could of told you from the start it doesn't look promising to become the first big hurricane lol.

You never know though, it looks lame now, but you can't count it out completely. Every Tropical Cyclone has humble beginnings!

I wouldn't be surprised if not much comes about from it though. If it does develop into a strong hurricane, its gonna have tendency to want to curve north out to sea anyway, the trough is just to strong.



Remember that troughs aren't as strong in the summer. This isn't October, it's August.
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Morning everyone, hard to believe it's been 7 years since Charley made landfall here:

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C'mon high BREAK DOWN! Lol



Monitoring possible gulf system in the Tropics...

Posted: Aug 13, 2011 6:49 AM CDT
By Patrick Vaughn

A tropical wave around Latitude 12N...Longitude 34W will be monitored closely over the coming week. While there are three other systems in the Tropical Atlantic, it appears that they will not make it to the Gulf of Mexico (GOM). The fourth system has a decent chance to do so. It appears weak at this time, but there are signs, from model forecasts, that it will develop. This forecast is based upon the reliable European Model. The wave is expected to move into the Eastern Caribbean Monday Night, August 16th. The pivotal day will be a week later on Monday Night August 22nd. From there, it becomes murky on where the storm will head. It appears there are two possible tracks it could take. During this time, blocking upper-level high pressure will be over Texas and over the Bahamas. The storm may turn north and move in-between the two highs towards Mobile to the Florida Panhandle in a weakness. The second possible path will be to just continue moving west, cross the Yucatan and slide under the Texas High and make a final landfall in Mexico. Should the high over Texas weaken then things will become interesting. At this point, though it looks like Southeast Texas is in good shape, but we will closely monitor model trends over the coming week.


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Quoting clwstmchasr:


93L has been the one that every expert was worried that this would become our first big hurricane. Looking at the visible this morning there is basically nothing left (hence the lowering to 10%). This is a very weird year so far. 7 storms, no hurricanes.


I could of told you from the start it doesn't look promising to become the first big hurricane lol.

You never know though, it looks lame now, but you can't count it out completely. Every Tropical Cyclone has humble beginnings!

I wouldn't be surprised if not much comes about from it though. If it does develop into a strong hurricane, its gonna have tendency to want to curve north out to sea anyway, the trough is just to strong.
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Quoting gulfbreeze:
What is that in the lower right?

92L...
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1552. Patrap
Not much left of any of those pumpers that had the thread in a Tizzy.

Itsa gonna be nuther 7-9 days before the Atlantic spits out one to worry bout.
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Complete Update

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI





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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
94L (center) and 92L (lower right):
What is that in the lower right?
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1549. SLU
Quoting hunkerdown:
where do you see that ? NHC still has at 40...


From the 12z satellite classification.
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1548. Patrap
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INITIATE MERGE ALARM!
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Told you guys these things weren't coming to Florida! lol
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Quoting SLU:
FRANKLIN now up to 45mph.
where do you see that ? NHC still has at 40...
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Quoting mcluvincane:
Wave train went bye bye just as fast as it came.


Yup...exit..stage right..
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Quoting mcluvincane:
Wave train went bye bye just as fast as it came.


I don't think so going by this.

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Quoting txjac:
KanKunKid, would never have you on ignore ..love your sense of humor!


Same for me.....have always enjoyed his sharp wit , and he certainly comes across with an honest common sense syle :)
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Wave train went bye bye just as fast as it came.
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Quoting johnbluedog69:
Morning Aqua and all friends,I love me some dunkin donuts original blend whole bean ground up strong with milk and lotsa sugar.Watching the tropics this morning from the DelMarVa peninsula:)

I've just had half a block of chocolate, a handful of gummy bears and now having a soothing cuppa tea.

Currently
53.8°F heading for a low of 46°F.
Could be worse, could be in New Zealand going by this.

New Zealand braces for an intense winter storm.

A powerful winter storm that is barreling towards New Zealand will bring a gale force and bitterly cold southwest change that will drop snowfalls to sea-level.

A low is sitting just to the north of the country, but as it continues its track to the east it will send the first round of cold air in today. Showers and brisk southwest winds will spread into the south and snow levels will drop to around 300 metres tonight.

The low will intensify to the southeast of New Zealand over the next few days, dragging a polar airmass far north. Sunday through Tuesday is when the coldest of this wintry blast will engulf the country.

Snow will fall to near sea level in eastern and southern parts of the South Island and to low levels across the North Island. The gale force winds combined with heavy snow could create blizzard conditions over parts of the south.

This unusually cold polar blast will cause travel headaches as snow falls in areas that are not prone to the wintry weather. Major centres that are likely to be affected by the low level snow include, Dunedin, Christchurch and Wellington.

The wintry blast will batter New Zealand until Wednesday, before conditions finally ease.

- Weatherzone
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Quoting redwagon:


Does your forecast also say 0% chance of rain with a sunny 103o high?

LOL! Let me check...nope...103 with 10%...hahaha 10%
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Quoting redwagon:

Where are you, txjac? This storm looks pretty all-inclusive, making blueberry french toast to celebrate.

How do ya make french toast? How hot does the fire have to be and how long does a french-man take to cook?
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Quoting muddertracker:
Come on down, storms! Central Texas welcomes you :) You can do it..


Does your forecast also say 0% chance of rain with a sunny 103o high?
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


3/6 of our named storms came from trough splits, those almost always go out to sea and very rarely become Hurricanes. Arlene, Don, and Emily all effected land however.. that should tell you something. Also, 2002 didn't see its first hurricane until the 'G' name AND they had to wait until September. The fact that we're already on our 6th storm is impressive as it is, and I suspect like 2002 and 2010 we'll be cranking out hurricanes very soon. In 2010 Alex was the offset, and we had to wait until late August for another hurricane.

Well, that explains it.
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Come on down, storms! Central Texas welcomes you :) You can do it..
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Quoting aspectre:
1505 WeatherNerdPR "94L (center) and 92L (lower left)" [photo]

92 is lower right. 93L is off screen to the right.

XD Sorry, lol Fixed it.
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Last year I disagreed with a lot of the downcasters at the begining of the season, granted a lot didn't know WTH they were talking about but as the season progressed they ended up being the right forecasters. I have done the same this year, disagreeing with most downcasters. It seems as this season is the same. All storms struggle to develope or OTS. The downcasters are winning the forecast fight at the moment, I wonder if they will be right for the rest of the season? Hmmmmm.....
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1530. Patrap
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Quoting SLU:
FRANKLIN now up to 45mph.
So,fishes take care/
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1528. Patrap
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Quoting clwstmchasr:


93L has been the one that every expert was worried that this would become our first big hurricane. Looking at the visible this morning there is basically nothing left (hence the lowering to 10%). This is a very weird year so far. 7 storms, no hurricanes.


Development is not expected until the Caribbean, 10% makes sense at this time.
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1526. SLU
FRANKLIN now up to 45mph.
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1525. SLU
033

WHXX01 KWBC 131301

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1301 UTC SAT AUG 13 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL CYCLONE FRANKLIN (AL062011) 20110813 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110813 1200 110814 0000 110814 1200 110815 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 38.6N 58.9W 39.9N 55.6W 40.6N 51.6W 40.6N 47.8W

BAMD 38.6N 58.9W 40.8N 53.0W 41.8N 45.5W 42.0N 38.2W

BAMM 38.6N 58.9W 40.2N 54.2W 40.8N 48.5W 40.3N 43.1W

LBAR 38.6N 58.9W 40.8N 53.8W 42.9N 47.6W 44.2N 40.5W

SHIP 40KTS 49KTS 54KTS 55KTS

DSHP 40KTS 49KTS 54KTS 55KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110815 1200 110816 1200 110817 1200 110818 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 39.9N 44.9W 38.1N 42.2W 36.4N 42.4W 36.2N 42.8W

BAMD 42.2N 32.7W 44.4N 22.0W 47.7N 8.1W 52.9N 3.9E

BAMM 39.2N 39.6W 37.6N 36.3W 36.3N 35.9W 36.5N 37.0W

LBAR 45.3N 33.2W .0N .0W .0N .0W .0N .0W

SHIP 53KTS 40KTS 19KTS 0KTS

DSHP 53KTS 40KTS 19KTS 0KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 38.6N LONCUR = 58.9W DIRCUR = 55DEG SPDCUR = 19KT

LATM12 = 36.2N LONM12 = 62.6W DIRM12 = 58DEG SPDM12 = 18KT

LATM24 = 34.7N LONM24 = 66.7W

WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT

CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = 45NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN





375

WHXX01 KWBC 131304

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1304 UTC SAT AUG 13 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942011) 20110813 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110813 1200 110814 0000 110814 1200 110815 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 27.1N 59.4W 28.1N 61.0W 29.1N 62.4W 30.5N 63.4W

BAMD 27.1N 59.4W 27.6N 60.8W 28.2N 62.1W 28.9N 63.4W

BAMM 27.1N 59.4W 27.9N 60.9W 28.6N 62.2W 29.7N 63.4W

LBAR 27.1N 59.4W 28.4N 60.7W 29.6N 61.7W 31.2N 62.2W

SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 37KTS

DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 37KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110815 1200 110816 1200 110817 1200 110818 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 32.5N 63.7W 38.2N 59.9W 42.3N 50.8W 45.4N 40.5W

BAMD 30.1N 64.7W 35.3N 66.4W 42.6N 62.2W 48.6N 40.1W

BAMM 31.2N 64.3W 37.0N 63.3W 43.3N 55.3W 48.6N 37.7W

LBAR 32.7N 61.9W 36.6N 58.8W 40.2N 52.7W 42.5N 41.4W

SHIP 41KTS 51KTS 55KTS 52KTS

DSHP 41KTS 51KTS 55KTS 52KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 27.1N LONCUR = 59.4W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 11KT

LATM12 = 25.8N LONM12 = 57.2W DIRM12 = 298DEG SPDM12 = 11KT

LATM24 = 25.0N LONM24 = 55.4W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN

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1524. txjac
KanKunKid, would never have you on ignore ..love your sense of humor!
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Wow, this season keeps barfing out tropical storms.


3/6 of our named storms came from trough splits, those almost always go out to sea and very rarely become Hurricanes. Arlene, Don, and Emily all effected land however.. that should tell you something. Also, 2002 didn't see its first hurricane until the 'G' name AND they had to wait until September. The fact that we're already on our 6th storm is impressive as it is, and I suspect like 2002 and 2010 we'll be cranking out hurricanes very soon. In 2010 Alex was the offset, and we had to wait until late August for another hurricane.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24021
1505 WeatherNerdPR "94L (center) and 92L (lower left)" [photo]

92 is lower right. 93L is off screen to the right.
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1521. txjac
Quoting redwagon:

DFW broke the squall line up, but the storm otherwise is holding it's strength. Only 150 more miles to get to Austin.



Hopefully it holds together and we get rain ...I cant believe how excited I am just for rain and clouds ...hopefully thunder too ...love thunder
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Quoting txjac:



I'm on the west side of Houston ...if you're close to me I'm on my way for the french toast!

DFW broke the squall line up, but the storm otherwise is holding it's strength. Only 150 more miles to get to Austin.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Good morning! Franklin's formation marks the us being 2 days ahead of 2008 for our named storm.. though Franklin will not become a hurricane. 93L continues to look sick, and will not develop until it reaches the Caribbean. The GFS and CMC both show 93L developing as it trucks into the Caribbean, which means over the next 5 days we'll be watching 93L closely. I suspect the earliest window of opportunity for development is Thursday.

Wow, this season keeps barfing out tropical storms.
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Good morning! Franklin's formation marks the us being 2 days ahead of 2008 for our named storm.. though Franklin will not become a hurricane. 93L continues to look sick, and will not develop until it reaches the Caribbean. The GFS and CMC both show 93L developing as it trucks into the Caribbean, which means over the next 5 days we'll be watching 93L closely. I suspect the earliest window of opportunity for development is Thursday.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24021
1516. txjac
Quoting redwagon:

Where are you, txjac? This storm looks pretty all-inclusive, making blueberry french toast to celebrate.



I'm on the west side of Houston ...if you're close to me I'm on my way for the french toast!
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Quoting txjac:


Been watching that in Texas and praying that it will come my way ...that would totally make my weekend!

Where are you, txjac? This storm looks pretty all-inclusive, making blueberry french toast to celebrate.
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1513. txjac
Quoting islander101010:
nothing to worry about in the tropical atlantic looks like texas is getting alittle


Been watching that in Texas and praying that it will come my way ...that would totally make my weekend!
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nothing to worry about in the tropical atlantic looks like texas is getting alittle
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also notice a possible new disturbance north of Puerto Rico !!! The NAM model agrees !!!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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