Four invests in the Atlantic; fair weather in Arctic to drive rapid sea ice loss

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:38 PM GMT on August 12, 2011

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It's a busy day in the tropical Atlantic, with the National Hurricane Center tracking four areas of interest (Invests.) None of these systems is a danger to any land areas over the next three days. The disturbance of most concern is the one farthest from land, a tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa two days ago. This wave, (Invest 93L), is located about 500 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, and is moving westward at 15 - 20 mph. Recent visible satellite loops show that 93L has lost some of its heavy thunderstorms since yesterday, and the system is poorly organized, though there is a good deal of spin to the system. There is dry air to its north that is interfering with development. The SHIPS model and University of Wisconsin CIMSS wind shear analysis are showing high wind shear in excess 20 knots affecting 93L, which has undoubtedly contributed to the storm's loss of organization. Sea surface temperatures are 27.5°C, which is one degree above the 26.5°C threshold usually needed to support a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite photo of the four Invests in the Atlantic today.

Forecast for 93L
High wind shear above 20 knots is predicted along 93L's path through Saturday afternoon, followed by a drop to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, for the succeeding four days. This should allow the storm to organize over the weekend. The latest 00Z and 06Z model runs of the four best models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET), have only one model, the GFS, that is indicating significant development of 93L. This model brings 93L near the northern Lesser Antilles Islands by Wednesday. NHC gave 93L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8am outlook. Given 93L's recent struggles, I'd put these odds at 30%.

92L
An African wave midway between the northern Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, near 18°N 45°W, is moving west-northwest at 20 mph. This system, (Invest 92L), is being given a 40% chance of development by NHC. Recent visible satellite loops show a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, but no signs of a surface circulation. A Windsat pass from 8:04 am EDT this morning also showed no surface circulation, and noted top winds of around 35 mph. Water vapor satellite loops show that a large area of dry air surrounds 92L, and this dry air is causing problems for the storm. The SHIPS model and University of Wisconsin CIMSS wind shear analysis are showing moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting 92L. Sea surface temperatures are 27 - 27.5°C, which is a degree above the 26.5°C threshold usually needed to support a tropical storm.

Forecast for 92L
Moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots is predicted along 92L's path over the coming five days, which should allow the storm to organize if it can handle the dry air surrounding it. The latest 00Z and 06Z model runs of the four best models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET) show weak development or no development of 92L, and NHC gave 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8am outlook. A steady west-northwest motion for 92L is predicted by all of the models, which should make the storm miss the Lesser Antilles by a comfortable margin. However, Bermuda may be at risk from 92L next week.

94L
A broad low pressure system about 700 miles northeast of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands has developed a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, and may be a threat to become a tropical depression early next week. This system, (Invest 94L), is currently headed west-southwest at 10 mph, but is expected to turn northwest later today. Recent visible satellite loops show some spin to the cloud pattern at middle levels of the atmosphere, but no signs of a surface circulation. This system is also battling dry air, which is keeping the its heavy thunderstorms relatively meager. The SHIPS model is showing moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting 94L. Sea surface temperatures are 28°C.

Forecast for 94L
Moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots is predicted along 94L's path over the coming five days, which should allow slow development, if it can handle the dry air surrounding it. None of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET) show no development of 94L, and NHC gave 94L just a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8am outlook. Bermuda is the only land area that needs to be concerned with 94L.

95L
The final invest out there is an area of disturbed weather along on old frontal boundary several hundred miles off the coast of North Carolina. This sytem, Invest 95L, is headed northeastwards out to sea, and is not a threat to any land areas.



Figure 2. Arctic sea ice extent on August 11, 2011, was the 2nd lowest on record for the date. The Northeast Passage and Northwest Passage (southern route) were both ice-free. Image credit: UIUC Cryosphere Today.

Arctic sea ice poised to undergo record decline in mid-August
A strong high pressure system with a central pressure of 1035 mb has developed over the Arctic north of Alaska, and will bring clear skies and warm southerly winds to northeast Siberia and the Arctic during the coming week, accelerating Arctic sea ice loss. Widespread areas of northeastern Siberia are expected to see air temperatures 4 - 12°C (7 - 22°F) above average during the coming week, and the clockwise flow of air around the high pressure system centered north of Alaska will pump this warm air into the Arctic. Arctic sea ice extent, currently slightly higher than the record low values set in 2007, should fall to to its lowest extent for the date by the third week of August as the clear skies and warm southerly winds melt ice and push it away from the coast of Siberia. This weather pattern, known as the Arctic Dipole, was also responsible for the record sea ice loss in 2007, but was stronger that year. The weather conditions that led to the 2007 record were quite extreme--one 2008 study led by Jennifer Kay of the National Center for Atmospheric Research showed that 2007's combination of high pressure and sunny skies in the Arctic occur, on average, only once every 10 - 20 years. The 2011 summer weather pattern in the Arctic has not been nearly as extreme as in 2007, but the total sea ice volume has declined significantly since 2007, leading to much loss of old, thick, multi-year ice, making it easier to set a new low extent record with less extreme weather conditions. The GFS model is predicting that the Arctic Dipole will weaken by 8 - 15 days from now, with cloudier weather and weaker high pressure over the Arctic. This should slow down the rate of Arctic sea ice loss to very near the record low values observed in 2007. It remains to be seen if 2011 Arctic sea ice extent will surpass the all-time low set in September 2007; it will be close, and will depend on the weather conditions of late August and early September, which are not predictable at this time. It is already possible to sail completely around the North Pole in ice-free waters through the Northeast Passage and Northwest Passage, according to sea ice maps maintained by the UIUC Cryosphere Today website. This marks the fourth consecutive year--and the fourth time in recorded history--both of these Arctic shipping routes have melted free. Mariners have been attempting to sail these passages since 1497. This year, the Northeast Passage along the north coast of Russia melted free several weeks earlier than its previous record early opening.

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Jeff Masters

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Quoting Levi32:
I wonder how many have lost hope of ever seeing below normal 500mb heights over Texas this summer. The GFS shows it at the end of the run.


Lies!
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Tropical Update With Video
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I'd like to see Jeff and Angela take advantage of all this Atlantic activity to post a dual, "he said, she said' style entry so we could compare their views, approaches, etc....the more they were in disagreement, the more interesting it would be...
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"1. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES NORTH OF BERMUDA HAS BECOME MUCH
BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY BEFORE THIS DISTURBANCE
MERGES WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH."


The NHC has officially cancelled the weekend.
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Quoting emcf30:


Central Florida Hurricane Center has been around since 1995. It is a tropical weather site which includes maps, updates, and a blog.
Link


Didnt know it existed...I took a look at it..lots of good info.
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254. Skyepony (Mod)
Flood~ That's what..I mean It wouldn't have mattered had I been there~ it landed where I park the truck.

Atmo~ Had it gone through the tent it would have been a vacation wrecker & not the first vacation where we went tent shopping. Sorry about your tent.
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I stand by my morning forecast...

Meh.
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XX/INV/95L
MARK
34N/66W


XX/INV/94L
MARK
25N/55W


XX/INV/93L
MARK
11.35N/30.30W


XX/INV/92L
MARK
18.85N/45.89W




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20% on 94L.
40% on 93L.
50% on 92L.
60% on 95L.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24449
Wow, 30 to 60% on 95L.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24449
Quoting Levi32:


I don't recall it showing much breakdown of the ridge before now. Of course it may not happen, but it is encouraging to see at least some signs of it showing up on a model.

It will be indeed a blessing if the GFS solution works out we need any moisture we can get, even if we have to endure a hurricane to get it!!! LOL
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 121754
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES NORTH OF BERMUDA HAS BECOME MUCH
BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY BEFORE THIS DISTURBANCE
MERGES WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.

A SHARP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT NEAR
20 MPH. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED...THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS
TIME. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 525 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20
MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ABOUT 700 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD AT
ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

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The blog died for about 5 minutes there, lol.
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Going to happen eventually.

One could almost make a permanent sign, though: "Below normal 500mb heights over Texas coming in 2 weeks" based on GFS...


I don't recall it showing much breakdown of the ridge before now. Of course it may not happen, but it is encouraging to see at least some signs of it showing up on a model.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


95L could be a tropical depression later today, depending on the NHC's belief of warm-core characteristics and whether they believe it is detached enough from the frontal boundary.


Really???????
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Anybody think we'll see any red alerts in the TWO? I think 95L may get one, but none of the others just yet.
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Quoting CorneliaMarie:
Proposed Solar Project Sparks Fear of Desert Tortoise Wipeout


By Stephen Clark

Published August 12, 2011
| FoxNews.com



A proposed massive solar project in the California desert that is part of President Obama’s commitment to clean energy has sparked fears that rare tortoises in the area will be pushed to brink of extinction even though the Interior Department is forcing the developer to purchase habitat elsewhere.


But environmental activists say it remains to be seen whether the tortoises will ultimately survive the changes.

“Only time will tell,” said Donna Charpied, executive director of Citizens for the Chuckwalla Valley, who openly opposes the project but has worked with the developer on mitigation measures.

Interior Secretary Ken Salazar approved the 550-megawatt project this week. The Desert Sunlight Solar Farm will be built in the desert east of Palm Springs on 4,100 acres of public lands.Federal officials say the solar project will generate enough energy to power over 165,000 homes, create more than 630 jobs and infuse $336 million into the local economy.

The company, Desert Sunlight Holdings, LLC, a subsidiary of First Solar Inc, is paying $1.37 million per year for 30 years to rent the public lands, which amounts to $41 million for taxpayers.

First Solar will purchase an additional 7,500 acres of habitat for the desert tortoise.

“The BLM is committed to supporting a clean energy future for America by responsibly developing renewable energy on our country’s public lands,” BLM Director Bob Abbey said in a statement. “And part of that responsibility lies in mitigating the potential impacts of energy development on our wildlife and our lands.”

A BLM spokeswoman told FoxNews.com that the agency identified some area of private lands that it would prefer First Solar to acquire as part of the mitigation for the project. But it is up to the company to find willing sellers and negotiate a price.

First Solar did not respond to a request for comment.

The private lands “would provide connectivity for desert tortoise, allowing them to move from the Chuckwalla Bench area to Joshua Tree and areas north,” BLM spokeswoman Erin Curtis said.

She said the project will be built on “already disturbed lands that are considered marginal habitat for desert tortoise.” The area has already been used heavily by industry, including Kaiser mine and the Colorado River Aqueduct.

If tortoises are encountered during construction, they will be translocated, Curtis said.

During initial surveys, only a two or three tortoises were found in the project area, she said.

But Charpied said she has seen many more than that over the past 30 years that she has lived on her farm that is 600 feet away from the project. She noted that tortoises are shy creatures that may not have revealed themselves during the count.

Charpied said she has cooperated with the company after raising concerns because she realized “the project is going to happen.”

“So just to ignore it and not have anything in place would be sheer murder,” she said.

She said by engaging with the company, “we were able to forge the best mitigation that will provide extra levels of protection for our home, farm and community.”

Curtis noted that BLM reduced First Solar’s proposed total footprint from 19,000 acres down to 4,144 during a year-and-half review and came up with additional mitigation measures after hearing concerns about a number of issues.

“We have a multiple-use mission and part of that is protecting natural resources and part of multiple use is considering the use of land,” Curtis told FoxNews.com. “It’s certainly part of our multiple-use mission, conducted throughout our analysis, to come up with a project that is a win for all.”

Charpied said the BLM is doing its job and just following orders from the president. But she took issue with the president’s energy plan.

“I believe that President Obama’s energy plan is misguided,” she said. “It would be nice to have solar panels on rooftops, parking lots, next to transmission lines. But a lot of these projects targeting this area are the complete opposite of what the energy plan should be.”


Enviromentalistic cannibalism.....
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95L could become a TD later on but, see what's below at the end. I wonder...
Cindy began quite like that
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Pretty amazing how far meteorology, including tropical, has come in the tech age. At "site" observations upon impact (too late); onsite observations from ships and other locations and relay of info to others down the line by morse/telegraph/call (something may be headed your way); satellites and more sophisticated charts (something is definitely headed your way); and now models (something "may" be headed your way in a few weeks)............We have come full circle in many ways.
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That Star in the CENTER OF THE SOLAR SYSTEM????;

-Heats only the central US
--Cannot be seen specially during night
--The big star heats the earth, and the moon cools it
--responsible for every warm day in human history
--able to travel 93 million miles and reach our planet is as little as eight and a half minutes
--we can't see them, we're fairly certain these infrared rays strike Earth's surface, become trapped by the atmosphere, and just heat everything up like a great big oven
--It's the reason why it is uncomfortable to walk on asphalt barefoot
--with a surface temperature of nearly 10,900 degrees Fahrenheit
--he star seems to disappear every night, 24-hour reports from around the world seem to indicate the star never leaves Earth entirely.
--it's gigantic simply because it's closer to us than any other star,---"Which would also account for why we feel this particular star's heat during the day but are not warmed by the tiny blinking stars we see at night."

Maybe it is responsible for the US Trillion dollar debt and the Wall Street Panic...


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Quoting Buhdog:
and the blog takes 1 big chill pill.....Levi and kman are like sedatives. Levity is a wonderful thing.

hmm storms moving inland from the coast/ rain moving away from coast...weird flow off of SWFL
Link
Good afternoon all. Buhdog, thanks for noticing that. It has been strange the way our weather has been coming out of the N-NW lately here in Key West. Looking at the radar, you might think something is trying to form. Isn't that the tail end of the trough sitting off shore?
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Quoting Levi32:
I wonder how many have lost hope of ever seeing below normal 500mb heights over Texas this summer. The GFS shows it at the end of the run.

Going to happen eventually.

One could almost make a permanent sign, though: "Below normal 500mb heights over Texas coming in 2 weeks" based on GFS...
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Quoting presslord:
Does Floodman need adult supervision in here?


Why would we want any adults in here?
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Quoting MississippiWx:


95L could be a tropical depression later today, depending on the NHC's belief of warm-core characteristics and whether they believe it is detached enough from the frontal boundary.



Well I think 95L will be the big upset of the season, beating forecasted 93 or 92L to become Franklin.
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Milankovitch Cycles
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Not bad at all.


95L could be a tropical depression later today, depending on the NHC's belief of warm-core characteristics and whether they believe it is detached enough from the frontal boundary.
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I see cyclonic spin in 92L.
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Not bad at all.
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Quoting Levi32:
I wonder how many have lost hope of ever seeing below normal 500mb heights over Texas this summer. The GFS shows it at the end of the run.



Lol...That looks like the exact setup we had when Katrina hit on almost the exact same date.

I'll believe that setup when I see it...
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Quoting Skyepony:
Jed~ You haven't been kidding..your hogging all the rain! Incredible pics.

Here's that pic I promised from my vacation in Mills River, NC a few weeks ago where a 20' long poplar tree top nearly took out my tent. Was ironic after all my "tents won't protect you from trees" preaching. I'd went to a friend's house for the storm.


If it had hit you it would be un-poplar.
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This is what the streamers from 94l did this morning in pr!

UPDATE...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE OBSERVED THIS
MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS
ACTIVITY PRODUCED HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 KTS...
MAINLY ACROSS VEGA ALTA AND VEGA BAJA WHERE DOWNED POWER LINES
AND BLOWN ZINC ROOFS WERE REPORTED
. MORNING SHOWERS HAD DISSIPATED...
BUT EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
HEAVY RAIN...OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. STREAMERS WILL DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM
OF CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND USVI THIS AFTERNOON. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
MADE TO INHERITED FORECAST THIS MORNING AS IT REMAINS IN LINE WITH
LATEST THINKING.

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I wonder how many have lost hope of ever seeing below normal 500mb heights over Texas this summer. The GFS shows it at the end of the run.

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I will give a high 71% ch for 95L

I will all so give 92L a high 60 too 72% ch


94L will go up too 43%

93L wish is trying will go up too 51.5%
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92L as got in a lot better ORGANIZED


so here what i think will see at the new two


i will give a high 70% ch for 95L

i will all so give 92L a high 60 too 70% ch


94L will go up too 40%

93L wish is trying will go up too 50%
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I feel like a Hurricane this seasons will hit a large random landmass to the South of Texas. Experts say its kinda like a sandbar for the United States. Btw I'm making fun of the Onion video.
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A fairly uniform upper easterly flow over the top of 93L doesn't easily support deep convection, which is also contributing to its weak look right now. Farther west over warmer water and with the MJO pulse forecasted to come back into the Caribbean, that may change.

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Quoting presslord:
Does Floodman need adult supervision in here?


We would need an adult for that Press...roflmbo...i tried once or twice but gave up and joined in... gettin dark here in S. Windermere...thundering but no rain yet
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93L is about 2000 miles from the windward islands. conditions ahead of this system will get better as per the models' forecast. this system should not be written off,as there is much time to wait and see.
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Quoting presslord:
Does Floodman need adult supervision in here?
Yeah, do you know any adults?
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Does Floodman need adult supervision in here?
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219. Skyepony (Mod)
Fresh Oceansat of 92l & 93L.
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Quoting tiggeriffic:


im trying to figure out how it would be possible still, i mean think of our "SUN" which is really nothing more than a star...it is a known fact that venus is closer than earth and is too hot to inhabit, and mars is further away is is colder than our coldest place here on earth...how then could something that far away have an effect here on earth...i will have to read more into that


The article is tongue and cheek and quite funny..... :)
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12.5N/77.5W looking a alittle interesting on visible sat now too.
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Invests 92L, 93L, and 94L:

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*chuckle*
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
180. Baybuddy 12:58 PM EDT on August 12, 2011

If there is any truth to that star/heat wave issue then we are all looking in the wrong direction for DOOM; we need to keep looking up..........


im trying to figure out how it would be possible still, i mean think of our "SUN" which is really nothing more than a star...it is a known fact that venus is closer than earth and is too hot to inhabit, and mars is further away is is colder than our coldest place here on earth...how then could something that far away have an effect here on earth...i will have to read more into that
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Quoting Floodman:


No, the one with the mobile HAARP...ooops, sorry PrivateIdaho, HFAARP device...LOL
Hehehe...I'm a trend setter.
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once 93L finds some lower wind shear it will really take off this like 92L is doing in face 92L is on it way
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180. Baybuddy 12:58 PM EDT on August 12, 2011

If there is any truth to that star/heat wave issue then we are all looking in the wrong direction for DOOM; we need to keep looking up..........
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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