Four invests in the Atlantic; fair weather in Arctic to drive rapid sea ice loss

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:38 PM GMT on August 12, 2011

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It's a busy day in the tropical Atlantic, with the National Hurricane Center tracking four areas of interest (Invests.) None of these systems is a danger to any land areas over the next three days. The disturbance of most concern is the one farthest from land, a tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa two days ago. This wave, (Invest 93L), is located about 500 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, and is moving westward at 15 - 20 mph. Recent visible satellite loops show that 93L has lost some of its heavy thunderstorms since yesterday, and the system is poorly organized, though there is a good deal of spin to the system. There is dry air to its north that is interfering with development. The SHIPS model and University of Wisconsin CIMSS wind shear analysis are showing high wind shear in excess 20 knots affecting 93L, which has undoubtedly contributed to the storm's loss of organization. Sea surface temperatures are 27.5°C, which is one degree above the 26.5°C threshold usually needed to support a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite photo of the four Invests in the Atlantic today.

Forecast for 93L
High wind shear above 20 knots is predicted along 93L's path through Saturday afternoon, followed by a drop to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, for the succeeding four days. This should allow the storm to organize over the weekend. The latest 00Z and 06Z model runs of the four best models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET), have only one model, the GFS, that is indicating significant development of 93L. This model brings 93L near the northern Lesser Antilles Islands by Wednesday. NHC gave 93L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8am outlook. Given 93L's recent struggles, I'd put these odds at 30%.

92L
An African wave midway between the northern Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, near 18°N 45°W, is moving west-northwest at 20 mph. This system, (Invest 92L), is being given a 40% chance of development by NHC. Recent visible satellite loops show a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, but no signs of a surface circulation. A Windsat pass from 8:04 am EDT this morning also showed no surface circulation, and noted top winds of around 35 mph. Water vapor satellite loops show that a large area of dry air surrounds 92L, and this dry air is causing problems for the storm. The SHIPS model and University of Wisconsin CIMSS wind shear analysis are showing moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting 92L. Sea surface temperatures are 27 - 27.5°C, which is a degree above the 26.5°C threshold usually needed to support a tropical storm.

Forecast for 92L
Moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots is predicted along 92L's path over the coming five days, which should allow the storm to organize if it can handle the dry air surrounding it. The latest 00Z and 06Z model runs of the four best models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET) show weak development or no development of 92L, and NHC gave 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8am outlook. A steady west-northwest motion for 92L is predicted by all of the models, which should make the storm miss the Lesser Antilles by a comfortable margin. However, Bermuda may be at risk from 92L next week.

94L
A broad low pressure system about 700 miles northeast of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands has developed a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, and may be a threat to become a tropical depression early next week. This system, (Invest 94L), is currently headed west-southwest at 10 mph, but is expected to turn northwest later today. Recent visible satellite loops show some spin to the cloud pattern at middle levels of the atmosphere, but no signs of a surface circulation. This system is also battling dry air, which is keeping the its heavy thunderstorms relatively meager. The SHIPS model is showing moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting 94L. Sea surface temperatures are 28°C.

Forecast for 94L
Moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots is predicted along 94L's path over the coming five days, which should allow slow development, if it can handle the dry air surrounding it. None of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET) show no development of 94L, and NHC gave 94L just a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8am outlook. Bermuda is the only land area that needs to be concerned with 94L.

95L
The final invest out there is an area of disturbed weather along on old frontal boundary several hundred miles off the coast of North Carolina. This sytem, Invest 95L, is headed northeastwards out to sea, and is not a threat to any land areas.



Figure 2. Arctic sea ice extent on August 11, 2011, was the 2nd lowest on record for the date. The Northeast Passage and Northwest Passage (southern route) were both ice-free. Image credit: UIUC Cryosphere Today.

Arctic sea ice poised to undergo record decline in mid-August
A strong high pressure system with a central pressure of 1035 mb has developed over the Arctic north of Alaska, and will bring clear skies and warm southerly winds to northeast Siberia and the Arctic during the coming week, accelerating Arctic sea ice loss. Widespread areas of northeastern Siberia are expected to see air temperatures 4 - 12°C (7 - 22°F) above average during the coming week, and the clockwise flow of air around the high pressure system centered north of Alaska will pump this warm air into the Arctic. Arctic sea ice extent, currently slightly higher than the record low values set in 2007, should fall to to its lowest extent for the date by the third week of August as the clear skies and warm southerly winds melt ice and push it away from the coast of Siberia. This weather pattern, known as the Arctic Dipole, was also responsible for the record sea ice loss in 2007, but was stronger that year. The weather conditions that led to the 2007 record were quite extreme--one 2008 study led by Jennifer Kay of the National Center for Atmospheric Research showed that 2007's combination of high pressure and sunny skies in the Arctic occur, on average, only once every 10 - 20 years. The 2011 summer weather pattern in the Arctic has not been nearly as extreme as in 2007, but the total sea ice volume has declined significantly since 2007, leading to much loss of old, thick, multi-year ice, making it easier to set a new low extent record with less extreme weather conditions. The GFS model is predicting that the Arctic Dipole will weaken by 8 - 15 days from now, with cloudier weather and weaker high pressure over the Arctic. This should slow down the rate of Arctic sea ice loss to very near the record low values observed in 2007. It remains to be seen if 2011 Arctic sea ice extent will surpass the all-time low set in September 2007; it will be close, and will depend on the weather conditions of late August and early September, which are not predictable at this time. It is already possible to sail completely around the North Pole in ice-free waters through the Northeast Passage and Northwest Passage, according to sea ice maps maintained by the UIUC Cryosphere Today website. This marks the fourth consecutive year--and the fourth time in recorded history--both of these Arctic shipping routes have melted free. Mariners have been attempting to sail these passages since 1497. This year, the Northeast Passage along the north coast of Russia melted free several weeks earlier than its previous record early opening.

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Jeff Masters

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TORNADO WARNING
ILC177-122315-
/O.NEW.KDVN.TO.W.0017.110812T2239Z-110812T2315Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
539 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN STEPHENSON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 615 PM CDT.

* AT 538 PM CDT...TRAINED SPOTTERS AND DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO NEAR GERMAN VALLEY...OR 11 MILES EAST OF FREEPORT...MOVING
EAST AT 15 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE
INDICATED COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE IN A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT OR INTERIOR ROOM
OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4220 8940 4219 8953 4220 8955 4230 8955
4230 8939 4220 8939
TIME...MOT...LOC 2239Z 271DEG 15KT 4223 8943

$$

DLF
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HIPPOCRITT:
hopefully not on a nut.

Hey, critt... just want 2 let u know u caused me to lose a whole post tryina get a gander of that cute pooch of urs.... lol

Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Another system that probably won't be a hurricane.

6/0/0 is pretty amazing.
1/2 formed as trough splits...
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Quoting galvestonhurricane:
Hey everyone! It looks like 93L will not form until right before/after it reaches the Antilles (just my opinion).


That seems like a reasonable prospect. Models seem to concur. TIA.
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My predictions:

* Franklin at 11PM

* Invest 92L up to 60/70% at 8PM.

* Invest 93L down to 30% at 8PM.

* Invest 94L up to 30/40% at 8PM.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31989
92L up to 70% at 7pm, 93L despite lack of convection will go up to 50-60% JMO.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7862
Hey everyone! It looks like 93L will not form until right before/after it reaches the Antilles (just my opinion).
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94L and 92L have the green light for development (except for dry air)...I am watching the area South and East of TD 6, for the possibility of another frontal low (like Bret and Cindy).
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.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. IT
WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...PASSING THROUGH EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY NIGHT.


look what the 18Z NOGAPS is picking up and has it coming off the NE and heads back south...also develops 93L and heads it towards the conus..

Link

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It is true 93L is confronting a lot of problem two days ago it was a blob of convention now it's more disorganized.

Quoting kmanislander:


Hi there,

93L has three problems, one of which is resolving itself now. The one that is resolving is shear, which has fallen steadily from close to 30 knots all the way down to about 15 knots or less now on the South side of the circulation and still falling.

Problem 2 is that it is still stuck in the monsoon trough and looks to remain there for another day or two.

Problem 3 is a quirky upper level structure. The 850 mb vorticity lags the surface feature by about 200 miles but the 700 mb vort is close to overhead though elongated from East to West. Not quite sure what to make of this but that is what the maps show.Could be the result of mid level shear ( which is fairly high ) hitting the vertical strucutre in such a way to create a "bowing " effect to the East at the low levels around 5000 feet.

Until these three things sort themselves out 93L will just continue chugging along to the West doing little to organise IMO
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My 8pm TWO prediction.

92L: 60%
93L: Remain 40%
94L: 40%
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Quoting P451:


Not as much as it once appeared to. It really looked prime to take off and be a Hurricane approaching the islands.

Now it's just broad and disorganized and devoid of convection.

Still a lot of time to do something before it reaches the islands.

It has gone from a system you could forecast down to a system you're just waiting for signs of organization from.


Hi there,

93L has three problems, one of which is resolving itself now. The one that is resolving is shear, which has fallen steadily from close to 30 knots all the way down to about 15 knots or less now on the South side of the circulation and still falling.

Problem 2 is that it is still stuck in the monsoon trough and looks to remain there for another day or two.

Problem 3 is a quirky upper level structure. The 850 mb vorticity lags the surface feature by about 200 miles but the 700 mb vort is close to overhead though elongated from East to West. Not quite sure what to make of this but that is what the maps show.Could be the result of mid level shear ( which is fairly high ) hitting the vertical strucutre in such a way to create a "bowing " effect to the East at the low to mid levels around 5000 feet.

Until these three things sort themselves out 93L will just continue chugging along to the West doing little to organise IMO
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


There is a new African wave ready to go out to the Atlantic ocean have you guys notice?
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I don't post as much here anymore since it has gotten kinda trollish...but I think it is super interesting how many exclusive tropical storms have formed in a row so far this season 5+TD 6 (which will soon be Franklin). No hurricane as of yet. I think 94L has a shot of becoming a STS or TS over the next day or two, and 92L could do the same. 93L is a non existent in my mind right now.
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Quoting stormpetrol:
92L IMO close to TD status, 93L lacking convection but organizing IMO , probably the only player down the road!



hey we got TD 6 and all so 94L is all so geting close too TD


all so we need too watch NC off the cost for per 96L
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Needs some Visine

Ouch

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92L IMO close to TD status, 93L lacking convection but organizing IMO , probably the only player down the road!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7862
Dry mid-levels

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Can't 93L's disorganization be attributed to the fact it may be separating from the ITCZ?


No, because it isn't. The monsoon trough is up at 12-13N.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
833. JLPR2
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


I remember all the "doom" tracks everyone was forecasting.

From NOLA to Florida.

Wound up just dying in Central America.


That 96L was actually the first invest I tracked. It was a torture to watch it. xD

In the 18z GFS run 93L gets together at 168hrs.
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94L,92L and 93L, later guys.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7997
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31989
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Can't 93L's disorganization be attributed to the fact it may be separating from the ITCZ?



Good thinking!
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6877
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


The track is beginning to worry me.

Not about serious effects on land, more that I'm concerned 93L is going to do something extremely similar to Emily...


Henceforth, Emily will be know as 'That E Storm'. I don't think any of us want to revisit That E Storm again.
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Can't 93L's disorganization be attributed to the fact it may be separating from the ITCZ?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31989
Quoting JLPR2:


Did I hear Dry Bud 96L?

XD


I remember all the "doom" tracks everyone was forecasting.

From NOLA to Florida.

Wound up just dying in Central America.
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18z GFSI track
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825. JLPR2
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
18z GFS appears to send 93L through the Caribbean without developing.

Just screams 96L from 2007 all over again.

Not sure how many were around for that. lol


Did I hear Dry Bud 96L?

XD
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Quoting P451:


Such as...
Remain broad, disorganized, and extremely annoying to track?



Something like that... lol.
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Quoting P451:


Not as much as it once appeared to. It really looked prime to take off and be a Hurricane approaching the islands.

Now it's just broad and disorganized and devoid of convection.

Still a lot of time to do something before it reaches the islands.

It has gone from a system you could forecast down to a system you're just waiting for signs of organization from.


Emily..........
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Houston hit 101 degrees today, extending its 100-degree-day streak to 12. Longest ever is 14 days, set in 1980. Records go back to 1895.

Hopefully the streak will end here as tomorrow it is forecast to be 99 degrees and a 20% chance of rain. That equals to an 80% chance of foul language.
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Quoting NICycloneChaser:


The track is beginning to worry me.

Not about serious effects on land, more that I'm concerned 93L is going to do something extremely similar to Emily...


No please don't go there lol.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6877
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
18z GFS sends 93L through the Caribbean without developing.

Just screams 96L from 2007 all over again.

Not sure how many were around for that. lol


The track is beginning to worry me.

Not about serious effects on land, more that I'm concerned 93L is going to do something extremely similar to Emily...
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


At least 50%, IMO.


60%, just like with post 95L (now TD 6)
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6877
18z GFS appears to send 93L through the Caribbean without developing.

Just screams 96L from 2007 all over again.

Not sure how many were around for that. lol
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
We now have surface obs showing a WSW wind. Worthy of code red in my opinion.



At least 50%, IMO.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31989
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
94L



ok
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Quoting Tazmanian:




wish is that for 92 93 or 94L?
94L
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
We now have surface obs showing a WSW wind. Worthy of code red in my opinion.





wish is that for 92 93 or 94L?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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