Four invests in the Atlantic; fair weather in Arctic to drive rapid sea ice loss

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:38 PM GMT on August 12, 2011

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It's a busy day in the tropical Atlantic, with the National Hurricane Center tracking four areas of interest (Invests.) None of these systems is a danger to any land areas over the next three days. The disturbance of most concern is the one farthest from land, a tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa two days ago. This wave, (Invest 93L), is located about 500 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, and is moving westward at 15 - 20 mph. Recent visible satellite loops show that 93L has lost some of its heavy thunderstorms since yesterday, and the system is poorly organized, though there is a good deal of spin to the system. There is dry air to its north that is interfering with development. The SHIPS model and University of Wisconsin CIMSS wind shear analysis are showing high wind shear in excess 20 knots affecting 93L, which has undoubtedly contributed to the storm's loss of organization. Sea surface temperatures are 27.5°C, which is one degree above the 26.5°C threshold usually needed to support a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite photo of the four Invests in the Atlantic today.

Forecast for 93L
High wind shear above 20 knots is predicted along 93L's path through Saturday afternoon, followed by a drop to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, for the succeeding four days. This should allow the storm to organize over the weekend. The latest 00Z and 06Z model runs of the four best models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET), have only one model, the GFS, that is indicating significant development of 93L. This model brings 93L near the northern Lesser Antilles Islands by Wednesday. NHC gave 93L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8am outlook. Given 93L's recent struggles, I'd put these odds at 30%.

92L
An African wave midway between the northern Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, near 18°N 45°W, is moving west-northwest at 20 mph. This system, (Invest 92L), is being given a 40% chance of development by NHC. Recent visible satellite loops show a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, but no signs of a surface circulation. A Windsat pass from 8:04 am EDT this morning also showed no surface circulation, and noted top winds of around 35 mph. Water vapor satellite loops show that a large area of dry air surrounds 92L, and this dry air is causing problems for the storm. The SHIPS model and University of Wisconsin CIMSS wind shear analysis are showing moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting 92L. Sea surface temperatures are 27 - 27.5°C, which is a degree above the 26.5°C threshold usually needed to support a tropical storm.

Forecast for 92L
Moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots is predicted along 92L's path over the coming five days, which should allow the storm to organize if it can handle the dry air surrounding it. The latest 00Z and 06Z model runs of the four best models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET) show weak development or no development of 92L, and NHC gave 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8am outlook. A steady west-northwest motion for 92L is predicted by all of the models, which should make the storm miss the Lesser Antilles by a comfortable margin. However, Bermuda may be at risk from 92L next week.

94L
A broad low pressure system about 700 miles northeast of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands has developed a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, and may be a threat to become a tropical depression early next week. This system, (Invest 94L), is currently headed west-southwest at 10 mph, but is expected to turn northwest later today. Recent visible satellite loops show some spin to the cloud pattern at middle levels of the atmosphere, but no signs of a surface circulation. This system is also battling dry air, which is keeping the its heavy thunderstorms relatively meager. The SHIPS model is showing moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting 94L. Sea surface temperatures are 28°C.

Forecast for 94L
Moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots is predicted along 94L's path over the coming five days, which should allow slow development, if it can handle the dry air surrounding it. None of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET) show no development of 94L, and NHC gave 94L just a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8am outlook. Bermuda is the only land area that needs to be concerned with 94L.

95L
The final invest out there is an area of disturbed weather along on old frontal boundary several hundred miles off the coast of North Carolina. This sytem, Invest 95L, is headed northeastwards out to sea, and is not a threat to any land areas.



Figure 2. Arctic sea ice extent on August 11, 2011, was the 2nd lowest on record for the date. The Northeast Passage and Northwest Passage (southern route) were both ice-free. Image credit: UIUC Cryosphere Today.

Arctic sea ice poised to undergo record decline in mid-August
A strong high pressure system with a central pressure of 1035 mb has developed over the Arctic north of Alaska, and will bring clear skies and warm southerly winds to northeast Siberia and the Arctic during the coming week, accelerating Arctic sea ice loss. Widespread areas of northeastern Siberia are expected to see air temperatures 4 - 12°C (7 - 22°F) above average during the coming week, and the clockwise flow of air around the high pressure system centered north of Alaska will pump this warm air into the Arctic. Arctic sea ice extent, currently slightly higher than the record low values set in 2007, should fall to to its lowest extent for the date by the third week of August as the clear skies and warm southerly winds melt ice and push it away from the coast of Siberia. This weather pattern, known as the Arctic Dipole, was also responsible for the record sea ice loss in 2007, but was stronger that year. The weather conditions that led to the 2007 record were quite extreme--one 2008 study led by Jennifer Kay of the National Center for Atmospheric Research showed that 2007's combination of high pressure and sunny skies in the Arctic occur, on average, only once every 10 - 20 years. The 2011 summer weather pattern in the Arctic has not been nearly as extreme as in 2007, but the total sea ice volume has declined significantly since 2007, leading to much loss of old, thick, multi-year ice, making it easier to set a new low extent record with less extreme weather conditions. The GFS model is predicting that the Arctic Dipole will weaken by 8 - 15 days from now, with cloudier weather and weaker high pressure over the Arctic. This should slow down the rate of Arctic sea ice loss to very near the record low values observed in 2007. It remains to be seen if 2011 Arctic sea ice extent will surpass the all-time low set in September 2007; it will be close, and will depend on the weather conditions of late August and early September, which are not predictable at this time. It is already possible to sail completely around the North Pole in ice-free waters through the Northeast Passage and Northwest Passage, according to sea ice maps maintained by the UIUC Cryosphere Today website. This marks the fourth consecutive year--and the fourth time in recorded history--both of these Arctic shipping routes have melted free. Mariners have been attempting to sail these passages since 1497. This year, the Northeast Passage along the north coast of Russia melted free several weeks earlier than its previous record early opening.

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Jeff Masters

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morning SLU

what is your take on 93L? I JUST DON'T TRUST THESE SLEEPING MONSTERS.
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it seems alot of the times the yrs to really be aware are the yrs of nothing until boom 92
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1759. nigel20

Good morning guys.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8229
Time for errands. Have a great day and will check in this evening.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9265
1757. SLU
Quoting Vincent4989:
93L's problems:
1.Dry air
2.SAL
3.Moderate wind shear
4.The wire connecting it to 92L
Quoting Vincent4989:
93L's problems:
1.Dry air
2.SAL
3.Moderate wind shear
4.The wire connecting it to 92L


The "wire connecting it to 92L" is a line of convergence caused by the increase in the tradewinds in the wake of 92L. When there are multiple systems, they are normally "connected" by these convergence lines.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
One of the links above is about weather stations; it's pretty informative and has a list of brands / stations that work with Wunderground. Also one of our regular bloggers, aquak9, has some interests in that kind of business. She and her husband have a nifty website at rainmanweather.com that you can check out.


Oh cool, thanks for the info.
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Quoting E46Pilot:
Hi everyone. I want to get one of those weather stations to put outside, to measure wind etc. What is good one? What are you using?
I use the La Crosse ws-2812 runs around 200.00 and is all wireless. However i beleve Home Depot and walmart carry some that run around 100.00 and less
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hopefully these fish tales continues
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Quoting Vincent4989:

i know, i made it bold to mark that problem as

weird.


oh sorry fo the misunderstanding
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Quoting E46Pilot:
Hi everyone. I want to get one of those weather stations to put outside, to measure wind etc. What is good one? What are you using?
One of the links above is about weather stations; it's pretty informative and has a list of brands / stations that work with Wunderground. Also one of our regular bloggers, aquak9, has some interests in that kind of business. She and her husband have a nifty website at rainmanweather.com that you can check out.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22359
Quoting weatherh98:


all of those is the problem

i know, i made it bold to mark that problem as

weird.
Member Since: November 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728
1750. DFWjc
Quoting sunlinepr:


What's causing the invest train to curve back out into the Atlantic?
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Quoting Jedkins01:


Ehhh not really. Mathematically speaking, the probability of Tampa being hit has not changed. Its just that Tampa has a low chance of a direct hurricane strike.

Remember, when we are talking accuracy, there is no such thing as luck. There is also no such thing as "overdue". Probability is probability. If you say, flip a coin, even if you flip on tails say, 6 times in a row. The chance is always 50%, that it will land on tales or heads. It would be inaccurate to say its overdue to land on heads because it landed on tails 6 times in a row.

Therefore, the same goes for hurricanes. The probability of hurricane hitting Tampa directly is low. I'm not sure what the percentage chance is, but it is very low, so Tampa is not "overdue".


Now, math does not have a bias, or superstition like people can have, it just tells the honest truth. The fact is, Tampa has a low probability of a hurricane strike. But because the chance does exist, Tampa could be hit again as it has before. One day it will be hit again, be we cannot say how long it will take. It could happen this year, or Tampa may go another 40 or 50 years without a direct strike.


Ultimately, we should always be prepared for a potential strike living in Tampa Bay, we should never blow off a threatening hurricane. But we should not fear that Tampa must get hit soon because it hasn't in a while, there is not overdue. The probability is the same.


Like tht
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Quoting sunlinepr:
See this "glitch" in this PW animation?

For some guys out there, they would blame that to a "Massive HF HAARP" application to 93L, in order to destroy it..... From where? From US muclear ships that have HAARP systems incorporated...



A lot of conspiracy theorists in the Net...



There was a really big solar flare event a few days ago. Was probably from that.
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Quoting sunlinepr:
See this "glitch" in this PW animation?

For some guys out there, they would blame that to a "Massive HF HAARP" application to 93L, in order to destroy it..... From where? From US muclear ships that have HAARP systems incorporated...


So let's see now, they're upsetting the balance of fever in the Atlantic basin for how long? Destroying the conveyor belt for what purpose? Adjusting weather patterns in Europe and the rest of the world, without any notice by other advanced nations?

Get real, there are dozens of scientists monitoring this activity as noise in their ionosphere research. Do you think they would all keep their mouths tightly shut? Not a chance.

Do your homework before you go babbling this crazy crap here. It's nonsense, and would be considered an act of war by any nation suffering drought or other weather related disaster as even a suspected indirect result.
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Quoting weatherh98:



THE BLOB!!!!! THE CHART!!!! POST PICTURES OF THEM BOTH


Member Since: November 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728
for the 1st time i am starting too see some deeper t-storms for 93L showing up
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Somewhere over the Texas
T'was so dry
There's a park that I heard of
The trees were left to die

Sometime over the Texas
Sky so blue
And the sights that you dare to see
Really speak to you

Some night I'll wish to the moonlight
And wake as the clouds roll on high
Pouring rain.
Where rain doesn't turn to virga
If it does y'all be in Sparta
Where you'll find our pain.

Someday over the Texas
Raindrops fly.
Clouds fly over the Texas
When will it rain tonight?

If those welcomed thunderstorms fly
Beyond the Texas
When will it rain tonight?


-Astro


astro-nomical thats was awesome your a poeet and i know it
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1695. Jedkins01 11:34 AM EDT on August 13, 2011

Good Morning Folks. You raise some interesting points. Main one being that we cannot accurately predict general landfall locations until less than a week out and even then things can change at the last minute. Many of the papers out there focus on percentage probabilities during a particular ENSO cycle (Neutral-Nina-Nino) for a particular general area (Caribbean-Gulf-East Coast)and higher or lower strike probability based on observed analog years. However, the ENSO component of any specific season is only half of the story when you consider ridging and trof patterns which can change during the season regardless of the ENSO cycle. We have gotten closer with the numbers over the years (below avg-average-above average with a few exceptions like 2005)but predicting large scale synoptic patterns at any specific time are much more difficult to nail down; the "fish" pattern last year just happened to stay in place during the peak but I could not tell you whether that will be the case this year.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9265
Quoting Jedkins01:


Ehhh not really. Mathematically speaking, the probability of Tampa being hit has not changed. Its just that Tampa has a low chance of a direct hurricane strike.

Remember, when we are talking accuracy, there is no such thing as luck. There is also no such thing as "overdue". Probability is probability. If you say, flip a coin, even if you flip on tails say, 6 times in a row. The chance is always 50%, that it will land on tales or heads. It would be inaccurate to say its overdue to land on heads because it landed on tails 6 times in a row.

Therefore, the same goes for hurricanes. The probability of hurricane hitting Tampa directly is low. I'm not sure what the percentage chance is, but it is very low, so Tampa is not "overdue".


Now, math does not have a bias, or superstition like people can have, it just tells the honest truth. The fact is, Tampa has a low probability of a hurricane strike. But because the chance does exist, Tampa could be hit again as it has before. One day it will be hit again, be we cannot say how long it will take. It could happen this year, or Tampa may go another 40 or 50 years without a direct strike.


Ultimately, we should always be prepared for a potential strike living in Tampa Bay, we should never blow off a threatening hurricane. But we should not fear that Tampa must get hit soon because it hasn't in a while, there is not overdue. The probability is the same.
,vounerable yes,overdue no +1
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1740. 7544
Quoting MississippiWx:
94L would be a TD with a slight increase in convection close to the center.

Really surprised to see what has happened to 93L.


is it 94l the cmc shows heading to fla tia
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Quoting Vincent4989:
93L's problems:
1.Dry air
2.SAL
3.Moderate wind shear
4.The wire connecting it to 92L


all of those is the problem
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1738. DFWjc
Quoting txjac:


Quit keeping it all to yourself!! Send some to Houston please! lol


No way, after 43 days of no rain and over 100+ LOL
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"Plop Plop Fizz Fizz Oh what a relief it is..LOL! :)
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Quoting 12george1:

I think 8 consecutive hurricanes in 1992 is the record.


It looks like it.

Funnily enough, the Atlantic can go a bit better than that (I suppose a fair few more seasons to go at).
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Just a reminder that, climatologically-speaking, the sixth named storm of the average Atlantic hurricane season (1966-2009) doesn't appear until September 8; the average by this date is three storms. (However, the first hurricane usually appears on August 10.)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
93L's problems:
1.Dry air
2.SAL
3.Moderate wind shear
4.The wire connecting it to 92L
Member Since: November 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728
Quoting MississippiWx:
94L would be a TD with a slight increase in convection close to the center.

Really surprised to see what has happened to 93L.


The pattern so far is waves looking fenomenal as they emerge Africa,but as soon they hit the dry zone,they turn into nothing.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1732. SLU
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
Don't forget that that's half of Emily. I called her the Wicked Witch of the East reborn, and she's living up to her name.


It certainly has a better skeleton than EMILY.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Vincent4989:

Wait......
94L was rejected from the remains of Emily which is- son of......


wait for it.......




THE BLOB!!!!!!!!!!!








THE BLOB!!!!! THE CHART!!!! POST PICTURES OF THEM BOTH
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1730. IKE

Quoting CaneHunter031472:
Atlantic update

Fish - Fish - Fish - Fizzle
lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
94L is not exactly moving according to plan. West we Go is the latest I can see.

Granted, Emily reborn is a naked swirl at the moment, but she may be waiting for her next chance at stardom ...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
See this "glitch" in this PW animation?

For some guys out there, they would blame that to a "Massive HF HAARP" application to 93L, in order to destroy it..... From where? From US muclear ships that have HAARP systems incorporated...



A lot of conspiracy theorists in the Net...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GTcooliebai:
sorry to say, but I believe our luck will run out soon enough.


Ehhh not really. Mathematically speaking, the probability of Tampa being hit has not changed. Its just that Tampa has a low chance of a direct hurricane strike.

Remember, when we are talking accuracy, there is no such thing as luck. There is also no such thing as "overdue". Probability is probability. If you say, flip a coin, even if you flip on tails say, 6 times in a row. The chance is always 50%, that it will land on tales or heads. It would be inaccurate to say its overdue to land on heads because it landed on tails 6 times in a row.

Therefore, the same goes for hurricanes. The probability of hurricane hitting Tampa directly is low. I'm not sure what the percentage chance is, but it is very low, so Tampa is not "overdue".


Now, math does not have a bias, or superstition like people can have, it just tells the honest truth. The fact is, Tampa has a low probability of a hurricane strike. But because the chance does exist, Tampa could be hit again as it has before. One day it will be hit again, be we cannot say how long it will take. It could happen this year, or Tampa may go another 40 or 50 years without a direct strike.


Ultimately, we should always be prepared for a potential strike living in Tampa Bay, we should never blow off a threatening hurricane. But we should not fear that Tampa must get hit soon because it hasn't in a while, there is not overdue. The probability is the same.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7687
Quoting Tazmanian:







i dont call this better looking to me
neither do i, getting sheared and llc exposed,looks like all the other has been or wannabe atlantic TD/TS
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hi everyone. I want to get one of those weather stations to put outside, to measure wind etc. What is good one? What are you using?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
Don't forget that that's half of Emily. I called her the Wicked Witch of the East reborn, and she's living up to her name.

Wait......
94L was rejected from the remains of Emily which is- son of......


wait for it.......




THE BLOB!!!!!!!!!!!





Member Since: November 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Somewhere over the Texas
T'was so dry
There's a park that I heard of
The trees were left to die

Sometime over the Texas
Sky so blue
And the sights that you dare to see
Really speak to you

Some night I'll wish to the moonlight
And wake as the clouds roll on high
Pouring rain.
Where rain doesn't turn to virga
If it does y'all be in Sparta
Where you'll find our pain.

Someday over the Texas
Raindrops fly.
Clouds fly over the Texas
When will it rain tonight?

If those welcomed thunderstorms fly
Beyond the Texas
When will it rain tonight?


-Astro

AMAZING!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Vincent4989:
Anyone knows where 93L's COC is? looking like a mess today.


missingin action
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
94L would be a TD with a slight increase in convection close to the center.

Really surprised to see what has happened to 93L.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting Vincent4989:
Anyone knows where 93L's COC is? looking like a mess today.



93L is so weak right now that is now a open wave
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Somewhere over the Texas
T'was so dry
There's a park that I heard of
The trees were left to die

Sometime over the Texas
Sky so blue
And the sights that you dare to see
Really speak to you

Some night I'll wish to the moonlight
And wake as the clouds roll on high
Pouring rain.
Where rain doesn't turn to virga
If it does y'all be in Sparta
Where you'll find our pain.

Someday over the Texas
Raindrops fly.
Clouds fly over the Texas
When will it rain tonight?

If those welcomed thunderstorms fly
Beyond the Texas
When will it rain tonight?


-Astro


WOW!!! NICE! GREAT JOB!! :) I like it!!! :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Anyone knows where 93L's COC is? looking like a mess today.
Member Since: November 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728
000
NOUS42 KNHC 131515
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT SAT 13 AUGUST 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 14/1100Z TO 15/1100Z AUGUST 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-074

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA #1 (94L...NEAR BERMUDA)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 14/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST
C. 14/1500Z
D. 31.5N 62.5W
E. 14/1730Z TO 14/2230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUSPECT AREA #2 (92L...SOUTH OF BERMUDA)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 15/1200Z
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST
C. 15/0900Z
D. 30.0N 64.5W
E. 15/1130Z TO 15/1630Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

3. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE FIX MISSION FOR
16/0000Z NEAR 34.0N 64.0W IF SECOND SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
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Quoting SLU:
94L is getting better defined and the center appears to be tightening up. I needs more deep convection to be called a TD. Meanwhile 92L is in very bad shape now.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic
Don't forget that that's half of Emily. I called her the Wicked Witch of the East reborn, and she's living up to her name.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Somewhere over the Texas
T'was so dry
There's a park that I heard of
The trees were left to die

Sometime over the Texas
Sky so blue
And the sights that you dare to see
Really speak to you

Some night I'll wish to the moonlight
And wake as the clouds roll on high
Pouring rain.
Where rain doesn't turn to virga
If it does y'all be in Sparta
Where you'll find our pain.

Someday over the Texas
Raindrops fly.
Clouds fly over the Texas
When will it rain tonight?

If those welcomed thunderstorms fly
Beyond the Texas
When will it rain tonight?


-Astro
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well, yeah, now I am looking at 93L it does look pretty rough, hopefully it can get it's act together, but I guess only time will tell with ANY system. It is a wait/wait situation....fer sure...
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Quoting 12george1:

I think 8 consecutive hurricanes in 1992 is the record.
Coincidentally the same year Hurricane Andrew devastated South Fla. while you had Hurricane Lester simultaneously spinning towards the Baja Peninsula which eventually ended up in Arizona as a tropical storm. EPAC had 31 storms formed that yr, and it was an El Nino yr. which again goes to show you it only takes 1 to make it a bad yr.
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Quoting SLU:


The circulation is better defined now than it was at first light this morning. Deep convection is still lacking but there signs of development.


I can agree with that
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1711. SLU
Quoting Tazmanian:







i dont call this better looking to me
Quoting tropicfreak:





??????


The circulation is better defined now than it was at first light this morning. Deep convection is still lacking but there signs of development.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.