Four invests in the Atlantic; fair weather in Arctic to drive rapid sea ice loss

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:38 PM GMT on August 12, 2011

Share this Blog
28
+

It's a busy day in the tropical Atlantic, with the National Hurricane Center tracking four areas of interest (Invests.) None of these systems is a danger to any land areas over the next three days. The disturbance of most concern is the one farthest from land, a tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa two days ago. This wave, (Invest 93L), is located about 500 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, and is moving westward at 15 - 20 mph. Recent visible satellite loops show that 93L has lost some of its heavy thunderstorms since yesterday, and the system is poorly organized, though there is a good deal of spin to the system. There is dry air to its north that is interfering with development. The SHIPS model and University of Wisconsin CIMSS wind shear analysis are showing high wind shear in excess 20 knots affecting 93L, which has undoubtedly contributed to the storm's loss of organization. Sea surface temperatures are 27.5°C, which is one degree above the 26.5°C threshold usually needed to support a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite photo of the four Invests in the Atlantic today.

Forecast for 93L
High wind shear above 20 knots is predicted along 93L's path through Saturday afternoon, followed by a drop to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, for the succeeding four days. This should allow the storm to organize over the weekend. The latest 00Z and 06Z model runs of the four best models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET), have only one model, the GFS, that is indicating significant development of 93L. This model brings 93L near the northern Lesser Antilles Islands by Wednesday. NHC gave 93L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8am outlook. Given 93L's recent struggles, I'd put these odds at 30%.

92L
An African wave midway between the northern Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, near 18°N 45°W, is moving west-northwest at 20 mph. This system, (Invest 92L), is being given a 40% chance of development by NHC. Recent visible satellite loops show a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, but no signs of a surface circulation. A Windsat pass from 8:04 am EDT this morning also showed no surface circulation, and noted top winds of around 35 mph. Water vapor satellite loops show that a large area of dry air surrounds 92L, and this dry air is causing problems for the storm. The SHIPS model and University of Wisconsin CIMSS wind shear analysis are showing moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting 92L. Sea surface temperatures are 27 - 27.5°C, which is a degree above the 26.5°C threshold usually needed to support a tropical storm.

Forecast for 92L
Moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots is predicted along 92L's path over the coming five days, which should allow the storm to organize if it can handle the dry air surrounding it. The latest 00Z and 06Z model runs of the four best models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET) show weak development or no development of 92L, and NHC gave 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8am outlook. A steady west-northwest motion for 92L is predicted by all of the models, which should make the storm miss the Lesser Antilles by a comfortable margin. However, Bermuda may be at risk from 92L next week.

94L
A broad low pressure system about 700 miles northeast of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands has developed a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, and may be a threat to become a tropical depression early next week. This system, (Invest 94L), is currently headed west-southwest at 10 mph, but is expected to turn northwest later today. Recent visible satellite loops show some spin to the cloud pattern at middle levels of the atmosphere, but no signs of a surface circulation. This system is also battling dry air, which is keeping the its heavy thunderstorms relatively meager. The SHIPS model is showing moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting 94L. Sea surface temperatures are 28°C.

Forecast for 94L
Moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots is predicted along 94L's path over the coming five days, which should allow slow development, if it can handle the dry air surrounding it. None of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET) show no development of 94L, and NHC gave 94L just a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8am outlook. Bermuda is the only land area that needs to be concerned with 94L.

95L
The final invest out there is an area of disturbed weather along on old frontal boundary several hundred miles off the coast of North Carolina. This sytem, Invest 95L, is headed northeastwards out to sea, and is not a threat to any land areas.



Figure 2. Arctic sea ice extent on August 11, 2011, was the 2nd lowest on record for the date. The Northeast Passage and Northwest Passage (southern route) were both ice-free. Image credit: UIUC Cryosphere Today.

Arctic sea ice poised to undergo record decline in mid-August
A strong high pressure system with a central pressure of 1035 mb has developed over the Arctic north of Alaska, and will bring clear skies and warm southerly winds to northeast Siberia and the Arctic during the coming week, accelerating Arctic sea ice loss. Widespread areas of northeastern Siberia are expected to see air temperatures 4 - 12°C (7 - 22°F) above average during the coming week, and the clockwise flow of air around the high pressure system centered north of Alaska will pump this warm air into the Arctic. Arctic sea ice extent, currently slightly higher than the record low values set in 2007, should fall to to its lowest extent for the date by the third week of August as the clear skies and warm southerly winds melt ice and push it away from the coast of Siberia. This weather pattern, known as the Arctic Dipole, was also responsible for the record sea ice loss in 2007, but was stronger that year. The weather conditions that led to the 2007 record were quite extreme--one 2008 study led by Jennifer Kay of the National Center for Atmospheric Research showed that 2007's combination of high pressure and sunny skies in the Arctic occur, on average, only once every 10 - 20 years. The 2011 summer weather pattern in the Arctic has not been nearly as extreme as in 2007, but the total sea ice volume has declined significantly since 2007, leading to much loss of old, thick, multi-year ice, making it easier to set a new low extent record with less extreme weather conditions. The GFS model is predicting that the Arctic Dipole will weaken by 8 - 15 days from now, with cloudier weather and weaker high pressure over the Arctic. This should slow down the rate of Arctic sea ice loss to very near the record low values observed in 2007. It remains to be seen if 2011 Arctic sea ice extent will surpass the all-time low set in September 2007; it will be close, and will depend on the weather conditions of late August and early September, which are not predictable at this time. It is already possible to sail completely around the North Pole in ice-free waters through the Northeast Passage and Northwest Passage, according to sea ice maps maintained by the UIUC Cryosphere Today website. This marks the fourth consecutive year--and the fourth time in recorded history--both of these Arctic shipping routes have melted free. Mariners have been attempting to sail these passages since 1497. This year, the Northeast Passage along the north coast of Russia melted free several weeks earlier than its previous record early opening.

Next post
I'll have a new post by 1pm Saturday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 911 - 861

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37Blog Index

911. nigel20
11:42 PM GMT on August 12, 2011

TD6
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 8472
910. BahaHurican
11:42 PM GMT on August 12, 2011
Quoting P451:


It's not just that but so far we've had nothing but crappy systems that struggled to organize. Half of which that track to no man's land.
Interestingly, only one storm so far DIDN'T hit land... 2 if u count upcoming Franklin-from-TD-6. And as somebody said already, conditions here [in the ATL] have been pretty crappy. These tracks so far have not inspired me to believe we won't get a couple of noxious hits as conditions improve into Sept....

Quoting tropicfreak:


Wow LOL they may have to end up designating two tropical systems today. Would it be named Emily if it develops?
Doubt it... some of the energy came from elsewhere, and the nominal coc of Emily went off to the NE...

Quoting Trouper415:
CyberTeddy,

At the end of that loop, it definetly looks like 94L could be getting it's act together.


ITS act; no apostrophe needed unless meaning it is.

Quoting angiest:


Arguments worthy of when Ivan reformed and trek'd across the Gulf.
94L is more like Katrina in this sense. Katrina's complex cyclogenesis involved a part of the entity formerly known as TD10...

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22728
909. CaribBoy
11:42 PM GMT on August 12, 2011
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Caribboy,
if 93L forms in the "dead zone" that would be amazing...


Where is the "Dead Zone"?
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6455
908. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:41 PM GMT on August 12, 2011
Quoting portcharlotte:
Isn't this a repeat of last year with all the SAL...everyone was saying this year would have less SAL..Well so far it's still there


This year does have less SAL, but that doesn't mean it isn't there.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32822
907. HurricaneDean07
11:40 PM GMT on August 12, 2011
Caribboy,
if 93L forms in the "dead zone" that would be amazing...
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
906. portcharlotte
11:39 PM GMT on August 12, 2011
Isn't this a repeat of last year with all the SAL...everyone was saying this year would have less SAL..Well so far it's still there
Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 703
904. HurricaneDean07
11:38 PM GMT on August 12, 2011
Wow, very strong move with the NHC...
92L: down to 40
93L: down to 30
94L: up to 30

92L,93L just took a seat, and their falling backward
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
903. CaribBoy
11:37 PM GMT on August 12, 2011
I have the feeling that 93L will stay a wave until it reaches the Eastern Caribbean or even a little further west.
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6455
902. Tazmanian
11:36 PM GMT on August 12, 2011
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI AUG 12 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN
AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO
MEXICO. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE
SLOW TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 975 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD AT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
901. Levi32
11:36 PM GMT on August 12, 2011
ECMWF ensembles show their suggestions of where 93L should be in 10 days with their member variance (purple/pink colors). The mean is farther north than the operational run, which I mentioned this morning may be a bit too aggressive on the southerly track. The weakest link in the ridge should remain near the eastern seaboard, Florida, and southeast U.S. area, which could still pull this northward a little bit as it comes through the Caribbean area. Fine details of track are unknown right now as we have a weak system that could dissipate or develop several days from now when it finally gets into more favorable conditions farther west. If it does develop, chances are it will threaten land, as the pattern is shaping itself into the kind of pattern that can draw storms toward the Caribbean islands and SE US if they are coming in from far enough south.

Additionally, the models are hinting at the Texas ridge finally breaking down during the 10-15 day period. Could the drought at last be ready to let up? We will see. This would open up a whole new set of Gulf of Mexico possibilities as well if it comes true.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 122331
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON NEWLY-FORMED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX...LOCATED ABOUT 260 MILES NORTH OF BERMUDA.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT NEAR
20 MPH. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME...
AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND IT HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 575 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20
MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED
ABOUT 675 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD HAS BECOME
A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED SLOW
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW
MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

40, 30, 30... not surprised really




so oh got the 40 and oh got the 30
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
000
ABNT20 KNHC 122331
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON NEWLY-FORMED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX...LOCATED ABOUT 260 MILES NORTH OF BERMUDA.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT NEAR
20 MPH. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME...
AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND IT HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 575 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20
MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED
ABOUT 675 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD HAS BECOME
A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED SLOW
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW
MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

40, 30, 30... not surprised really
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
so oh got what %
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
897. IKE

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
and f5 commences
See post 893.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Jrweatherman,
just a tweak here...
94L forms if any formation occurs at all Saturday night/sunday morning
92L forms right before or right after...
93L forms into a TD in 4 to 5 days
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
and f5 commences
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56059
Quoting HuracanTaino:
I'm not an expert but is obvious, to much dry air to fight,marginal SST,27 degrees or so, wind shear 20 TO 25MPH. but perhaps, like most of the storm once they approach the lesser antilles and Climatology in favor, anything could happen.



Please correct me if I am wrong but it looks like 5-10 kts of shear in the area of 93L.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
893. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON NEWLY-FORMED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX...LOCATED ABOUT 260 MILES NORTH OF BERMUDA.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT NEAR
20 MPH. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME...
AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND IT HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 575 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20
MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED
ABOUT 675 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD HAS BECOME
A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED SLOW
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW
MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT31 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT21 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT1.


$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
I cant post a blog page because my computer won't let me, but I would say a lot of my opinions if I could.
In a short form, I think 94L will be a TD by 11:00 tommorow night.
93L will develop into a TD in 3-4 days
92L will develop at 5:00 A.M. tommorow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting P451:


Not as much as it once appeared to. It really looked prime to take off and be a Hurricane approaching the islands.

Now it's just broad and disorganized and devoid of convection.

Still a lot of time to do something before it reaches the islands.

It has gone from a system you could forecast down to a system you're just waiting for signs of organization from.
I'm not an expert but is obvious, to much dry air to fight,marginal SST,27 degrees or so, wind shear 20 TO 25MPH. but perhaps, like most of the storm once they approach the lesser antilles and Climatology in favor, anything could happen.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Okay shift in forecast for me...
92L: 60% ;Up
93L: 30% ;Down
94L: 50% ;Up
NC AOI: 10%, wont become an invest at all(though if does, wont form into a TC)

August Forecast:
5 Named Storms(Total: 9 Named Storms)
3 Hurricanes(Total: 3 Hurricanes)
1 Major Hurricane(Total: 1 Major Hurricane)


Thinkings of TC Formation in the next 120 hours for each invest:
92L: 73% of TC Formation
93L: 46% of TC Formation
94L: 55% of TC Formation

Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting P451:


Of course they do. They have many more resources at their fingertips than we do.

We can't access all the imagery they can.




yup
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
92L and 94L have really good chances of becoming Gert/Harvey if TD #6 becomes Franklin. With that being said, if they both develop, and 93L eventually develops, that would give us 5 named storms for August.

* Emily

* TD #6 (Franklin)

* 92L?

* 94L?

* 93L?



and its olny AUG 12th lol
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


They aren't as close as you think. In fact, they may be of a greater distance than what 92L and 93L were when they were both in the extreme Eastern Atlantic.



92L is moving at 20mph while 94L is only moving 10mph

they are fairly close already, and will only get closer
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
92L and 94L have really good chances of becoming Gert/Harvey if TD #6 becomes Franklin. With that being said, if they both develop, and 93L eventually develops, that would give us 5 named storms for August.

* Emily

* TD #6 (Franklin)

* 92L?

* 94L?

* 93L?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32822
92 / 94 are not as close as he thinks, but 92L is running up on 94L at full speed... IMO something's going to get wiped out. Should be interesting the next 24.....


OK. Gone to read back some...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22728
Quoting CaribBoy:


Generous!



thanks
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Quoting Tazmanian:
92L 70%

94L 70%

93L 60%

per 96L 10 or 20%


Generous!
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6455
93L will come back tonight
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
dont for get and i keep saying this be come the nhc may have tool that we cant even ues or see so they may no more whats going on then we do
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
TD6 came so fast!! .... while focus was mostly on 93L, currently looking quite bad..
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6455
Quoting Hurricanes101:


I think they all stay the same, and there is no other circle added

to me nothing warrants an upgrade for now

I think either 92L or 94L wont develop because of the other one; they are too close together


They aren't as close as you think. In fact, they may be of a greater distance than what 92L and 93L were when they were both in the extreme Eastern Atlantic.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32822
If any AOI warrants a percentage upgrade, it'll probably be 94L IMO.

Other than that, everything will probably remain the same with 93L possibly getting a decrease in chances.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
T.C.F.W
06L/TS/F/CX
MARK
36N/61W


T.C.F.A.
XX/INV/94L
MARK
25N/55W


POSS T.C.F.A.
XX/INV/93L
MARK
11.35N/30.30W


T.C.F.A.
XX/INV/92L
MARK
18.85N/45.89W

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56059
Quoting Hurricanes101:


I think they all stay the same, and there is no other circle added

to me nothing warrants an upgrade for now

I think either 92L or 94L wont develop because of the other one; they are too close together



ok will see
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Quoting Tazmanian:
92L 70%

94L 70%

93L 60%

per 96L 10 or 20%


I think they all stay the same, and there is no other circle added

to me nothing warrants an upgrade for now

I think either 92L or 94L wont develop because of the other one; they are too close together
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
93l not doing much.....that said given the gfs i am ok with that!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just got back on.... internet problem again.

I see they did upgrade 95L.... as we expected. Agree with the pple who think an upgrade to TS is likely in the next 12 hrs...

Am I the only one thinking there's likely to be some kind of interaction between 92L and 94L? [going back to read some back pages, but curious as to whether anybody else has an opinion on this.]
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22728
92L 70%

94L 70%

93L 60%

per 96L 10 or 20%
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
My predictions:

* Franklin at 11PM

* Invest 92L up to 60/70% at 8PM.

* Invest 93L down to 30% at 8PM.

* Invest 94L up to 30/40% at 8PM.



TD 6 (still) at 11
Invest 92L same
Invest 93L 30%
Invest 94L 30%
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 911 - 861

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
26 °F
Overcast

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron