Two African waves, 92L and 93L, worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:59 PM GMT on August 11, 2011

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An African wave is near 13°N 35°W, about 700 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. This system, (Invest 92L), is moving west to west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm before arriving near the northern Lesser Antilles Islands early next week. Recent visible satellite loops show that 92L has less heavy thunderstorm activity near where it is trying to develop its circulation center than yesterday. Water vapor satellite loops that a large area of dry air lies just to the west of 92L, but the atmosphere in the immediate vicinity of 92L is moist. Even so, the decline of heavy thunderstorm activity since yesterday implies that dry air is probably working its way into 92L. The SHIPS model and University of Wisconsin CIMSS wind shear analysis are showing moderate wind shear of 10 - 15 knots affecting 92L. Sea surface temperatures are 26.5° - 27°C, which is very close to the 26.5°C threshold usually needed to support a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite photo of Invest 92L and Invest 93L.

Forecast for 92L
Low to moderate wind shear of 5 - 15 knots is predicted along 92L's path over the coming three days, which should allow the storm to organize, assuming it can shut out any incursions of dry air that might intrude. The latest 00Z and 06Z model runs of the four best models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET) show weak development or no development of 92L, and NHC gave 92L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. A steady west to west-northwest motion for 92L is predicted by all of the models, which would put the storm in the vicinity of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands by Sunday. On Saturday and Sunday, 92L is expected to enter a region where an upper-level low pressure system will bring high wind shear of 20 knots to the storm, which should slow development. This upper-level low is also expected to turn 92L more to the northwest, so the storm is likely to pass north of the Lesser Antilles, though may pass close enough to give heavy rains to the northernmost islands. It is too early to know if 92L will recurve out to sea and potentially threaten Bermuda, or continue to the northwest towards the U.S. East Coast.

93L
An African wave that emerged off the coast of Africa is near 10°N 22°W, a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This system, (Invest 93L), is also moving west at 10 - 15 mph, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm before arriving near the northern Lesser Antilles Islands near the middle of next week. Recent visible satellite loops show that 93L has a decent amount of heavy thunderstorms, but this activity is not well organized. There is not much spin associated with 93L yet. 93L is fairly well-protected from dry air to its north and west. The SHIPS model and University of Wisconsin CIMSS wind shear analysis are showing moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting 93L. Sea surface temperatures are 27.5°C, which is one degree above the 26.5°C threshold usually needed to support a tropical storm.

Forecast for 93L
Moderate wind shear below 20 knots is predicted along 93L's path over the coming five days, which should allow the storm to steadily organize. 93L is about 600 miles east of 92L, which is close enough that the two systems may interfere with each others' organization. The latest 00Z and 06Z model runs of the four best models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET), have only one model, the GFS, that is indicating significant development of 93L. This model brings 93L near the northern Lesser Antilles Islands by Wednesday. NHC gave 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. Due to moister air, the potential for less wind shear, and a more southerly track, 93L is probably a greater threat to the Lesser Antilles than 92L.

Jeff Masters

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1909. largeeyes
6:50 AM GMT on August 15, 2011
Who broke the satelite images?
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1459
1908. Some1Has2BtheRookie
3:58 PM GMT on August 12, 2011
Quoting Floodman:


Two TUTTs and failed recurve


I'm going all in with the Texas Ridge. So far, that has been the winning hand bet on anything in the GOM. The only thing that had a chance this year just evaporated when it was time to show your hand.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4758
1907. kshipre1
3:49 PM GMT on August 12, 2011
I thought 2004 was an el nino year?
Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1130
1906. Floodman
3:44 PM GMT on August 12, 2011
Quoting kmanislander:


Not to mention 2005


Yessir, that would be correct
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
1905. gbreezegirl
3:43 PM GMT on August 12, 2011
Quoting Buhdog:
I call ants in the house and some crawfish crawling to higher ground.

Link


I will let you know what the chickens and the rabbitts are doing later.
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 274
1904. Vincent4989
3:43 PM GMT on August 12, 2011
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: November 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728
1903. Vincent4989
3:43 PM GMT on August 12, 2011
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Invests 94L and 95L have better vorticity than invests 92L and 93L. They might get classified before the two tropical waves in my opinion.

Link

Doubt it, because these two blobs have a problem. 95L has only a limited time before merging, and 94L has an appearance of a sheared storm.
Member Since: November 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728
1902. CarolinaHurricanes87
3:42 PM GMT on August 12, 2011
Maybe I am just too impatient! Just seems like these CV waves are trying to form painfully slow.... which in turn makes forecasting their paths basically impossible. I guess its still August, and my boredem makes things seem to happen slower than they really are haha
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 631
1901. Floodman
3:41 PM GMT on August 12, 2011
Quoting tiggeriffic:


im drinking mt dew...dont drink brown soda anymore... if i drank a 5 hour energy i would NEVER sleep lol, i barely sleep now, and room air is dif where you are lol


Hmmm...hallucinogenic air? That might explain Rick Perry
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
1900. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:41 PM GMT on August 12, 2011
XX/INV/95L
MARK
34N/66W


XX/INV/94L
MARK
25N/55W


XX/INV/93L
MARK
11.35N/30.30W


XX/INV/92L
MARK
18.85N/45.89W




Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54847
1899. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:41 PM GMT on August 12, 2011
Quoting SQUAWK:


What does all this mean?
MODEL GUIDANCE MESSAGE FOR EACH INVEST WITH EXPECTED DEV AND CURRENT LOC AND CONDITIONS

READ IT
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54847
1898. Atlantica
3:40 PM GMT on August 12, 2011
Hi All, tropics finally picking up as the waves off africa start to pile up.  IMO I believe the CONUS will be affected at some point this year, because i believe in the law of averages.  As long as well all are prepared there is nothing to worry about, you can replace property, but not life.
Member Since: June 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4
1897. hydrus
3:40 PM GMT on August 12, 2011
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21744
1896. Neapolitan
3:40 PM GMT on August 12, 2011
NEW BLOG ENTRY
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13603
1895. nigel20
3:39 PM GMT on August 12, 2011
What if we had two or three hurricanes at the same time, then there would be like a 100 post per minute
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8317
1894. tropicfreak
3:39 PM GMT on August 12, 2011
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
What I don't like about the tropics this year is that it is resembling 2005, where tropical waves don't develop until about 55W. As a result, you get a much greater threat to landfalls.


Yep, tropical waves that develop at 55W and 20 or 25N are serious threats to the coast.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
1893. kmanislander
3:39 PM GMT on August 12, 2011
Quoting Floodman:


I'll bet it is; lots of low shear environment and a more westerly steering schema, traditionally. Plenty of mid lattitude storms going long track; weren't Gilbert and Ivan both neutral ENSO storms? I think I'm remembering correctly, 1988 and 2004 were both neutral years...


Not to mention 2005
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15857
1892. CybrTeddy
3:39 PM GMT on August 12, 2011
Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:
Is there any type of weather pattern or feature currently causing these storms to strengthen so slowly (if at all?) Is it because its still relatively early in the season? Too much dry air? Or is the case different for each storm right now?

I just dont remember a season where every storm has so much trouble becoming organized... and once/if they do, strengthening.


I can name several, last year and 2007 to name examples.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24471
1891. SouthDadeFish
3:39 PM GMT on August 12, 2011
Invests 94L and 95L have better vorticity than invests 92L and 93L. They might get classified before the two tropical waves in my opinion.

Link
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
1890. SQUAWK
3:38 PM GMT on August 12, 2011
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
099

WHXX01 KWBC 121230

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1230 UTC FRI AUG 12 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952011) 20110812 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110812 1200 110813 0000 110813 1200 110814 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 34.8N 66.8W 35.8N 64.0W 36.7N 61.9W 37.5N 60.2W

BAMD 34.8N 66.8W 37.1N 62.5W 39.7N 57.8W 42.2N 51.0W

BAMM 34.8N 66.8W 36.6N 63.3W 38.4N 60.0W 40.0N 56.1W

LBAR 34.8N 66.8W 37.1N 63.0W 40.4N 58.8W 43.8N 53.2W

SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS 43KTS

DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS 43KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110814 1200 110815 1200 110816 1200 110817 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 38.4N 58.6W 39.7N 54.0W 40.7N 49.8W 42.6N 45.3W

BAMD 43.4N 42.5W 44.5N 25.9W 46.7N 8.0W 48.6N 8.5E

BAMM 41.1N 51.8W 42.1N 43.7W 40.9N 38.3W 39.3N 37.2W

LBAR 46.2N 45.1W .0N .0W .0N .0W .0N .0W

SHIP 44KTS 34KTS 21KTS 0KTS

DSHP 44KTS 34KTS 21KTS 0KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 34.8N LONCUR = 66.8W DIRCUR = 55DEG SPDCUR = 19KT

LATM12 = 32.5N LONM12 = 70.6W DIRM12 = 53DEG SPDM12 = 19KT

LATM24 = 30.4N LONM24 = 74.0W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN





640

WHXX01 KWBC 121239

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1239 UTC FRI AUG 12 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932011) 20110812 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110812 1200 110813 0000 110813 1200 110814 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 11.3N 30.3W 11.2N 31.8W 11.0N 33.8W 10.8N 36.1W

BAMD 11.3N 30.3W 11.4N 32.9W 11.4N 35.5W 11.5N 38.0W

BAMM 11.3N 30.3W 11.3N 32.5W 11.1N 34.8W 11.2N 37.2W

LBAR 11.3N 30.3W 11.7N 33.8W 12.0N 37.3W 12.4N 40.7W

SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 29KTS 33KTS

DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 29KTS 33KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110814 1200 110815 1200 110816 1200 110817 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 11.0N 38.7W 12.4N 44.1W 14.7N 50.8W 17.0N 58.9W

BAMD 11.6N 40.4W 12.4N 44.5W 14.1N 48.4W 16.7N 52.1W

BAMM 11.4N 39.6W 12.6N 44.3W 14.5N 49.5W 16.9N 55.0W

LBAR 12.8N 44.1W 13.1N 49.9W 12.1N 53.1W .0N .0W

SHIP 41KTS 55KTS 63KTS 65KTS

DSHP 41KTS 55KTS 63KTS 65KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 11.3N LONCUR = 30.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 19KT

LATM12 = 11.0N LONM12 = 26.5W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 19KT

LATM24 = 10.6N LONM24 = 22.8W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN





352

WHXX01 KWBC 121243

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1243 UTC FRI AUG 12 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942011) 20110812 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110812 1200 110813 0000 110813 1200 110814 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 24.7N 54.7W 25.5N 56.6W 26.3N 58.7W 27.2N 60.5W

BAMD 24.7N 54.7W 25.1N 56.4W 25.9N 57.7W 26.7N 58.8W

BAMM 24.7N 54.7W 25.5N 56.5W 26.4N 58.2W 27.4N 59.4W

LBAR 24.7N 54.7W 25.1N 56.7W 26.1N 58.7W 26.9N 60.7W

SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS

DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110814 1200 110815 1200 110816 1200 110817 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 28.0N 62.0W 30.6N 64.5W 36.2N 63.0W 41.7N 53.0W

BAMD 27.4N 59.6W 29.1N 60.6W 31.1N 61.0W 34.6N 58.9W

BAMM 28.4N 60.2W 31.0N 60.4W 33.7N 58.1W 35.5N 54.3W

LBAR 28.1N 62.2W 31.7N 63.0W 37.1N 59.0W 41.8N 49.6W

SHIP 48KTS 55KTS 54KTS 51KTS

DSHP 48KTS 55KTS 54KTS 51KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 24.7N LONCUR = 54.7W DIRCUR = 255DEG SPDCUR = 9KT

LATM12 = 25.2N LONM12 = 52.7W DIRM12 = 253DEG SPDM12 = 9KT

LATM24 = 26.0N LONM24 = 50.9W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN





429

WHXX01 KWBC 121245

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1245 UTC FRI AUG 12 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922011) 20110812 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110812 1200 110813 0000 110813 1200 110814 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 17.8N 45.3W 19.0N 48.9W 20.3N 52.6W 22.0N 55.9W

BAMD 17.8N 45.3W 19.0N 48.5W 20.1N 51.5W 21.2N 54.1W

BAMM 17.8N 45.3W 19.0N 48.6W 20.3N 51.9W 21.7N 54.8W

LBAR 17.8N 45.3W 19.5N 48.8W 21.2N 52.2W 22.9N 55.3W

SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 38KTS

DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 38KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110814 1200 110815 1200 110816 1200 110817 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 23.5N 58.8W 27.0N 63.4W 31.6N 65.2W 37.3N 60.5W

BAMD 22.2N 56.4W 24.0N 60.3W 25.7N 64.1W 27.9N 66.4W

BAMM 23.1N 57.4W 26.0N 61.5W 29.6N 64.0W 34.9N 62.0W

LBAR 24.5N 57.7W 28.1N 59.9W 31.5N 59.3W 32.8N 56.7W

SHIP 43KTS 48KTS 52KTS 61KTS

DSHP 43KTS 48KTS 52KTS 61KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 17.8N LONCUR = 45.3W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 20KT

LATM12 = 16.2N LONM12 = 41.4W DIRM12 = 294DEG SPDM12 = 20KT

LATM24 = 14.6N LONM24 = 37.4W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN


What does all this mean?
Member Since: December 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2498
1889. kmanislander
3:38 PM GMT on August 12, 2011
Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:
Is there any type of weather pattern or feature currently causing these storms to strengthen so slowly (if at all?) Is it because its still relatively early in the season? Too much dry air? Or is the case different for each storm right now?

I just dont remember a season where every storm has so much trouble becoming organized... and once/if they do, strengthening.


In the early part of the season SAL acts to inhibit development. Even after an outbreak subsides it takes several days for the dry air to be mixed away by the moisture of tropical waves heading West. It sometimes takes a few waves to moisten the atmosphere enough for those that follow to develop. We are seeing some of that happening now.

Past years have seen dry air plague storms all the way into September and beyond but this does not look like one of those years.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15857
1888. Floodman
3:38 PM GMT on August 12, 2011
Quoting kmanislander:


This is a neutral ENSO year and that is a big concern for me.


I'll bet it is; lots of low shear environment and a more westerly steering schema, traditionally. Plenty of mid lattitude storms going long track; weren't Gilbert and Ivan both neutral ENSO storms? I think I'm remembering correctly, 1988 and 2004 were both neutral years...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
1887. Matt74
3:37 PM GMT on August 12, 2011
Quoting xtremeweathertracker:
If the 6Z GFS is correct then the GOM and Texas better closely monitor 93L!!!

Yea but there's no way that can happen unless this high moves out.
Member Since: June 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 329
1886. Vincent4989
3:37 PM GMT on August 12, 2011
Quoting atmoaggie:
You quoting the whole thing was the right thing to do...

lol funny mistake
Member Since: November 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728
1885. HOTWHEELS99
3:37 PM GMT on August 12, 2011
7 AM EDT 12 August 2011 Update
The tropics continue to bubble today with 4 separate areas worth watching. A broad low area northeast of the Caribbean has "broke off" from the remnants of Emily and moved with the flow back south. This is very weak at the moment, but based on the time of year it has to be watched to see if something comes of it, it is not being tracked as an invest it this time. Of all the systems currently highlighted in the Atlantic, this may wind up being the most interesting and it should be watched closely to see if anything forms out of it, if it does it has a higher than usual chance to affect the Bahamas and possibly the coast. Thankfully it is the least likely to develop out of all the systems in the Hurricane Center's outlook.

92L remains weak and by far most likely to recurve before reaching any land.

93L, if it remains weak and in the shadow will likely continue westward, if it were develop and strengthen chances of it moving north and recurving are much greater. It too will have to be monitored, but it is still most likely to recurve at some point. (Although like yesterday, it's much too far out to be certain of it)

It is likely the latter half of August will be busy in the tropics, with a good number of storms, but few making it close enough to worry about. The most concerning systems will be the ones that form closer toward the US or off of old fronts or systems
Member Since: August 10, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 55
1884. mcluvincane
3:36 PM GMT on August 12, 2011
enough of those long post please
Member Since: June 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1390
1883. CybrTeddy
3:36 PM GMT on August 12, 2011
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Hard times...



Surprised that it held on as long as it did, thought it would look like that yesterday. Gradual development, it needs to consolidate more while working on the closed LLC. Was never as organized as it looked, most of the convection was ITCZ, what I think we're also seeing is beginning to lift out of the ITCZ.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24471
1882. hydrus
3:36 PM GMT on August 12, 2011
Quoting nigel20:
The blog is currently on overdrive.
And will stay that way for a while i think..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21744
1881. CarolinaHurricanes87
3:36 PM GMT on August 12, 2011
And to add to my last post.... has the fact that the "invests" have organized so slowly and not become strong quickly had any effect on what I view to be poor forecasting this season? Every storm that has formed, the path seems to be swinging wildly and not close to what actually happened (until the very last day).

Is this because the storms arent formed completely and strong enough to follow the patterns expected?
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 631
1880. SouthDadeFish
3:36 PM GMT on August 12, 2011
What I don't like about the tropics this year is that it is resembling 2005, where tropical waves don't develop until about 55W. As a result, you get a much greater threat to landfalls.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
1879. tiggeriffic
3:34 PM GMT on August 12, 2011
Quoting Floodman:


Sorry, hon...no secret here, it's 5 hour energy, Dr. Pepper and room air...



im drinking mt dew...dont drink brown soda anymore... if i drank a 5 hour energy i would NEVER sleep lol, i barely sleep now, and room air is dif where you are lol
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3650
1878. atmoaggie
3:34 PM GMT on August 12, 2011
Quoting Vincent4989:

Ridiculously long post!
You quoting the whole thing was the right thing to do...
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
1877. kmanislander
3:34 PM GMT on August 12, 2011
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
mornin kman ya stealth mode is the worse mode come up on ya all of a sudden without warning out of the clear blue sky


Hiya KEEP, the Atl. is becoming a busy place. I dont like those low riders though but we should expect several this year, it being ENSO neutral.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15857
1876. nigel20
3:33 PM GMT on August 12, 2011
The blog is currently on overdrive.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8317
1875. Vincent4989
3:32 PM GMT on August 12, 2011
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
099

WHXX01 KWBC 121230

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1230 UTC FRI AUG 12 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952011) 20110812 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110812 1200 110813 0000 110813 1200 110814 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 34.8N 66.8W 35.8N 64.0W 36.7N 61.9W 37.5N 60.2W

BAMD 34.8N 66.8W 37.1N 62.5W 39.7N 57.8W 42.2N 51.0W

BAMM 34.8N 66.8W 36.6N 63.3W 38.4N 60.0W 40.0N 56.1W

LBAR 34.8N 66.8W 37.1N 63.0W 40.4N 58.8W 43.8N 53.2W

SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS 43KTS

DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS 43KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110814 1200 110815 1200 110816 1200 110817 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 38.4N 58.6W 39.7N 54.0W 40.7N 49.8W 42.6N 45.3W

BAMD 43.4N 42.5W 44.5N 25.9W 46.7N 8.0W 48.6N 8.5E

BAMM 41.1N 51.8W 42.1N 43.7W 40.9N 38.3W 39.3N 37.2W

LBAR 46.2N 45.1W .0N .0W .0N .0W .0N .0W

SHIP 44KTS 34KTS 21KTS 0KTS

DSHP 44KTS 34KTS 21KTS 0KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 34.8N LONCUR = 66.8W DIRCUR = 55DEG SPDCUR = 19KT

LATM12 = 32.5N LONM12 = 70.6W DIRM12 = 53DEG SPDM12 = 19KT

LATM24 = 30.4N LONM24 = 74.0W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN





640

WHXX01 KWBC 121239

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1239 UTC FRI AUG 12 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932011) 20110812 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110812 1200 110813 0000 110813 1200 110814 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 11.3N 30.3W 11.2N 31.8W 11.0N 33.8W 10.8N 36.1W

BAMD 11.3N 30.3W 11.4N 32.9W 11.4N 35.5W 11.5N 38.0W

BAMM 11.3N 30.3W 11.3N 32.5W 11.1N 34.8W 11.2N 37.2W

LBAR 11.3N 30.3W 11.7N 33.8W 12.0N 37.3W 12.4N 40.7W

SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 29KTS 33KTS

DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 29KTS 33KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110814 1200 110815 1200 110816 1200 110817 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 11.0N 38.7W 12.4N 44.1W 14.7N 50.8W 17.0N 58.9W

BAMD 11.6N 40.4W 12.4N 44.5W 14.1N 48.4W 16.7N 52.1W

BAMM 11.4N 39.6W 12.6N 44.3W 14.5N 49.5W 16.9N 55.0W

LBAR 12.8N 44.1W 13.1N 49.9W 12.1N 53.1W .0N .0W

SHIP 41KTS 55KTS 63KTS 65KTS

DSHP 41KTS 55KTS 63KTS 65KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 11.3N LONCUR = 30.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 19KT

LATM12 = 11.0N LONM12 = 26.5W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 19KT

LATM24 = 10.6N LONM24 = 22.8W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN





352

WHXX01 KWBC 121243

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1243 UTC FRI AUG 12 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942011) 20110812 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110812 1200 110813 0000 110813 1200 110814 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 24.7N 54.7W 25.5N 56.6W 26.3N 58.7W 27.2N 60.5W

BAMD 24.7N 54.7W 25.1N 56.4W 25.9N 57.7W 26.7N 58.8W

BAMM 24.7N 54.7W 25.5N 56.5W 26.4N 58.2W 27.4N 59.4W

LBAR 24.7N 54.7W 25.1N 56.7W 26.1N 58.7W 26.9N 60.7W

SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS

DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110814 1200 110815 1200 110816 1200 110817 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 28.0N 62.0W 30.6N 64.5W 36.2N 63.0W 41.7N 53.0W

BAMD 27.4N 59.6W 29.1N 60.6W 31.1N 61.0W 34.6N 58.9W

BAMM 28.4N 60.2W 31.0N 60.4W 33.7N 58.1W 35.5N 54.3W

LBAR 28.1N 62.2W 31.7N 63.0W 37.1N 59.0W 41.8N 49.6W

SHIP 48KTS 55KTS 54KTS 51KTS

DSHP 48KTS 55KTS 54KTS 51KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 24.7N LONCUR = 54.7W DIRCUR = 255DEG SPDCUR = 9KT

LATM12 = 25.2N LONM12 = 52.7W DIRM12 = 253DEG SPDM12 = 9KT

LATM24 = 26.0N LONM24 = 50.9W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN





429

WHXX01 KWBC 121245

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1245 UTC FRI AUG 12 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922011) 20110812 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110812 1200 110813 0000 110813 1200 110814 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 17.8N 45.3W 19.0N 48.9W 20.3N 52.6W 22.0N 55.9W

BAMD 17.8N 45.3W 19.0N 48.5W 20.1N 51.5W 21.2N 54.1W

BAMM 17.8N 45.3W 19.0N 48.6W 20.3N 51.9W 21.7N 54.8W

LBAR 17.8N 45.3W 19.5N 48.8W 21.2N 52.2W 22.9N 55.3W

SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 38KTS

DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 38KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110814 1200 110815 1200 110816 1200 110817 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 23.5N 58.8W 27.0N 63.4W 31.6N 65.2W 37.3N 60.5W

BAMD 22.2N 56.4W 24.0N 60.3W 25.7N 64.1W 27.9N 66.4W

BAMM 23.1N 57.4W 26.0N 61.5W 29.6N 64.0W 34.9N 62.0W

LBAR 24.5N 57.7W 28.1N 59.9W 31.5N 59.3W 32.8N 56.7W

SHIP 43KTS 48KTS 52KTS 61KTS

DSHP 43KTS 48KTS 52KTS 61KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 17.8N LONCUR = 45.3W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 20KT

LATM12 = 16.2N LONM12 = 41.4W DIRM12 = 294DEG SPDM12 = 20KT

LATM24 = 14.6N LONM24 = 37.4W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN

Ridiculously long post!
Member Since: November 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728
1874. CarolinaHurricanes87
3:32 PM GMT on August 12, 2011
Is there any type of weather pattern or feature currently causing these storms to strengthen so slowly (if at all?) Is it because its still relatively early in the season? Too much dry air? Or is the case different for each storm right now?

I just dont remember a season where every storm has so much trouble becoming organized... and once/if they do, strengthening.
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 631
1873. blsealevel
3:32 PM GMT on August 12, 2011
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


here is full view



Thank You
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
1872. Floodman
3:31 PM GMT on August 12, 2011
Quoting tiggeriffic:


may i, can i, have some of what you are having please...i wanna have that much fun... :P


Sorry, hon...no secret here, it's 5 hour energy, Dr. Pepper and room air...

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
1871. Vincent4989
3:31 PM GMT on August 12, 2011
Quoting hydrus:

Why is there a dark blue area in the Hebert box?
Member Since: November 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728
1870. tiggeriffic
3:31 PM GMT on August 12, 2011
ok...bbl...gotta grab some lunch...thinkin it is a sushi kind of day...YUM!
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3650
1869. weathermanwannabe
3:31 PM GMT on August 12, 2011
Hear is another good sat link to our AOI's showing the transitions since yesterday on 92L and 93L....Let it load up.........93L looks like a keeper for sure.

Link
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9329
1868. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:31 PM GMT on August 12, 2011
099

WHXX01 KWBC 121230

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1230 UTC FRI AUG 12 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952011) 20110812 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110812 1200 110813 0000 110813 1200 110814 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 34.8N 66.8W 35.8N 64.0W 36.7N 61.9W 37.5N 60.2W

BAMD 34.8N 66.8W 37.1N 62.5W 39.7N 57.8W 42.2N 51.0W

BAMM 34.8N 66.8W 36.6N 63.3W 38.4N 60.0W 40.0N 56.1W

LBAR 34.8N 66.8W 37.1N 63.0W 40.4N 58.8W 43.8N 53.2W

SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS 43KTS

DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS 43KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110814 1200 110815 1200 110816 1200 110817 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 38.4N 58.6W 39.7N 54.0W 40.7N 49.8W 42.6N 45.3W

BAMD 43.4N 42.5W 44.5N 25.9W 46.7N 8.0W 48.6N 8.5E

BAMM 41.1N 51.8W 42.1N 43.7W 40.9N 38.3W 39.3N 37.2W

LBAR 46.2N 45.1W .0N .0W .0N .0W .0N .0W

SHIP 44KTS 34KTS 21KTS 0KTS

DSHP 44KTS 34KTS 21KTS 0KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 34.8N LONCUR = 66.8W DIRCUR = 55DEG SPDCUR = 19KT

LATM12 = 32.5N LONM12 = 70.6W DIRM12 = 53DEG SPDM12 = 19KT

LATM24 = 30.4N LONM24 = 74.0W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN





640

WHXX01 KWBC 121239

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1239 UTC FRI AUG 12 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932011) 20110812 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110812 1200 110813 0000 110813 1200 110814 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 11.3N 30.3W 11.2N 31.8W 11.0N 33.8W 10.8N 36.1W

BAMD 11.3N 30.3W 11.4N 32.9W 11.4N 35.5W 11.5N 38.0W

BAMM 11.3N 30.3W 11.3N 32.5W 11.1N 34.8W 11.2N 37.2W

LBAR 11.3N 30.3W 11.7N 33.8W 12.0N 37.3W 12.4N 40.7W

SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 29KTS 33KTS

DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 29KTS 33KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110814 1200 110815 1200 110816 1200 110817 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 11.0N 38.7W 12.4N 44.1W 14.7N 50.8W 17.0N 58.9W

BAMD 11.6N 40.4W 12.4N 44.5W 14.1N 48.4W 16.7N 52.1W

BAMM 11.4N 39.6W 12.6N 44.3W 14.5N 49.5W 16.9N 55.0W

LBAR 12.8N 44.1W 13.1N 49.9W 12.1N 53.1W .0N .0W

SHIP 41KTS 55KTS 63KTS 65KTS

DSHP 41KTS 55KTS 63KTS 65KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 11.3N LONCUR = 30.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 19KT

LATM12 = 11.0N LONM12 = 26.5W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 19KT

LATM24 = 10.6N LONM24 = 22.8W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN





352

WHXX01 KWBC 121243

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1243 UTC FRI AUG 12 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942011) 20110812 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110812 1200 110813 0000 110813 1200 110814 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 24.7N 54.7W 25.5N 56.6W 26.3N 58.7W 27.2N 60.5W

BAMD 24.7N 54.7W 25.1N 56.4W 25.9N 57.7W 26.7N 58.8W

BAMM 24.7N 54.7W 25.5N 56.5W 26.4N 58.2W 27.4N 59.4W

LBAR 24.7N 54.7W 25.1N 56.7W 26.1N 58.7W 26.9N 60.7W

SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS

DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110814 1200 110815 1200 110816 1200 110817 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 28.0N 62.0W 30.6N 64.5W 36.2N 63.0W 41.7N 53.0W

BAMD 27.4N 59.6W 29.1N 60.6W 31.1N 61.0W 34.6N 58.9W

BAMM 28.4N 60.2W 31.0N 60.4W 33.7N 58.1W 35.5N 54.3W

LBAR 28.1N 62.2W 31.7N 63.0W 37.1N 59.0W 41.8N 49.6W

SHIP 48KTS 55KTS 54KTS 51KTS

DSHP 48KTS 55KTS 54KTS 51KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 24.7N LONCUR = 54.7W DIRCUR = 255DEG SPDCUR = 9KT

LATM12 = 25.2N LONM12 = 52.7W DIRM12 = 253DEG SPDM12 = 9KT

LATM24 = 26.0N LONM24 = 50.9W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN





429

WHXX01 KWBC 121245

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1245 UTC FRI AUG 12 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922011) 20110812 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110812 1200 110813 0000 110813 1200 110814 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 17.8N 45.3W 19.0N 48.9W 20.3N 52.6W 22.0N 55.9W

BAMD 17.8N 45.3W 19.0N 48.5W 20.1N 51.5W 21.2N 54.1W

BAMM 17.8N 45.3W 19.0N 48.6W 20.3N 51.9W 21.7N 54.8W

LBAR 17.8N 45.3W 19.5N 48.8W 21.2N 52.2W 22.9N 55.3W

SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 38KTS

DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 38KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110814 1200 110815 1200 110816 1200 110817 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 23.5N 58.8W 27.0N 63.4W 31.6N 65.2W 37.3N 60.5W

BAMD 22.2N 56.4W 24.0N 60.3W 25.7N 64.1W 27.9N 66.4W

BAMM 23.1N 57.4W 26.0N 61.5W 29.6N 64.0W 34.9N 62.0W

LBAR 24.5N 57.7W 28.1N 59.9W 31.5N 59.3W 32.8N 56.7W

SHIP 43KTS 48KTS 52KTS 61KTS

DSHP 43KTS 48KTS 52KTS 61KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 17.8N LONCUR = 45.3W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 20KT

LATM12 = 16.2N LONM12 = 41.4W DIRM12 = 294DEG SPDM12 = 20KT

LATM24 = 14.6N LONM24 = 37.4W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54847
1867. kmanislander
3:30 PM GMT on August 12, 2011
Quoting Floodman:


Apparently my first response got lost sonewhere...Hey, kman! Been in and out myself though I've been busy and don't typically post much the last few weeks or so...

As for our traffic jam in the Atlantic? You are absolutely correct: the ones that stay small have the greatest chance of missing the predicted turns, continuing westward and causing serious trouble for someone. I dread to think what will happen if something small but organized hits the GOM or the Caribbean low...the potential is pretty disastrous


This is a neutral ENSO year and that is a big concern for me.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15857
1866. nigel20
3:29 PM GMT on August 12, 2011
Is it possible that 94L and 92L will interact or impede each other?
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8317
1865. hydrus
3:28 PM GMT on August 12, 2011
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21744
1864. tiggeriffic
3:28 PM GMT on August 12, 2011
Quoting Floodman:


"PROGRAM! GET YOUR PROGRAM! You won't be able to tell one Invest from another without your PROGRAM!"



may i, can i, have some of what you are having please...i wanna have that much fun... :P
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3650
1863. hydrus
3:26 PM GMT on August 12, 2011
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21744
1862. Floodman
3:26 PM GMT on August 12, 2011
Quoting nigel20:

94L is nw of 92L and 95L is nw of 94L


"PROGRAM! GET YOUR PROGRAM! You won't be able to tell one Invest from another without your PROGRAM!"

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
1861. nigel20
3:25 PM GMT on August 12, 2011
Quoting tropicfreak:



Thanks!

No problem.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8317
1860. Vincent4989
3:25 PM GMT on August 12, 2011
Quoting tropicfreak:
Anyone know which one is 94L, and do we have 95L? Hopefully someone sees this before a troll removes it.

The blob NW of 92L.
Also i noticed that 92L transformed from a big broad disorganized swirl to a tiny blob
Member Since: November 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728
1859. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:25 PM GMT on August 12, 2011
Quoting blsealevel:

water vapor upper level and mid level






here is full view

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54847

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.