Two African waves, 92L and 93L, worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:59 PM GMT on August 11, 2011

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An African wave is near 13°N 35°W, about 700 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. This system, (Invest 92L), is moving west to west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm before arriving near the northern Lesser Antilles Islands early next week. Recent visible satellite loops show that 92L has less heavy thunderstorm activity near where it is trying to develop its circulation center than yesterday. Water vapor satellite loops that a large area of dry air lies just to the west of 92L, but the atmosphere in the immediate vicinity of 92L is moist. Even so, the decline of heavy thunderstorm activity since yesterday implies that dry air is probably working its way into 92L. The SHIPS model and University of Wisconsin CIMSS wind shear analysis are showing moderate wind shear of 10 - 15 knots affecting 92L. Sea surface temperatures are 26.5° - 27°C, which is very close to the 26.5°C threshold usually needed to support a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite photo of Invest 92L and Invest 93L.

Forecast for 92L
Low to moderate wind shear of 5 - 15 knots is predicted along 92L's path over the coming three days, which should allow the storm to organize, assuming it can shut out any incursions of dry air that might intrude. The latest 00Z and 06Z model runs of the four best models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET) show weak development or no development of 92L, and NHC gave 92L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. A steady west to west-northwest motion for 92L is predicted by all of the models, which would put the storm in the vicinity of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands by Sunday. On Saturday and Sunday, 92L is expected to enter a region where an upper-level low pressure system will bring high wind shear of 20 knots to the storm, which should slow development. This upper-level low is also expected to turn 92L more to the northwest, so the storm is likely to pass north of the Lesser Antilles, though may pass close enough to give heavy rains to the northernmost islands. It is too early to know if 92L will recurve out to sea and potentially threaten Bermuda, or continue to the northwest towards the U.S. East Coast.

93L
An African wave that emerged off the coast of Africa is near 10°N 22°W, a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This system, (Invest 93L), is also moving west at 10 - 15 mph, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm before arriving near the northern Lesser Antilles Islands near the middle of next week. Recent visible satellite loops show that 93L has a decent amount of heavy thunderstorms, but this activity is not well organized. There is not much spin associated with 93L yet. 93L is fairly well-protected from dry air to its north and west. The SHIPS model and University of Wisconsin CIMSS wind shear analysis are showing moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting 93L. Sea surface temperatures are 27.5°C, which is one degree above the 26.5°C threshold usually needed to support a tropical storm.

Forecast for 93L
Moderate wind shear below 20 knots is predicted along 93L's path over the coming five days, which should allow the storm to steadily organize. 93L is about 600 miles east of 92L, which is close enough that the two systems may interfere with each others' organization. The latest 00Z and 06Z model runs of the four best models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET), have only one model, the GFS, that is indicating significant development of 93L. This model brings 93L near the northern Lesser Antilles Islands by Wednesday. NHC gave 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. Due to moister air, the potential for less wind shear, and a more southerly track, 93L is probably a greater threat to the Lesser Antilles than 92L.

Jeff Masters

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1559. ncstorm
It might just be a little something for everyone with these Invests developing..
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are you referring to 94-L? Crown weather is saying that the system should move WSW towards Puerto Rico and the Bahamas before being turned NE by a trough of low pressure coming off the east coast

Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1133
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


TRIO OF INVESTS


Getting ready to be a quad of invests
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Quoting angelafritz:
The Atlantic is a mess this morning!
lol Thanks Angela.

Now, any downcasters saying all of the 4 invests will not develop or some, if not all will be fish? I'm not a downcaster so i really don't doubt some, if not all will develop or not doubt that all will become fish..
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1555. Hugo7
95 will pop up in the carr with the thunderstorm activity there. very low chance of anything happening with it though. 94 is emily, please look back at were the disturbance tracked and you will see that it is her.
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1554. ncstorm
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Quoting angelafritz:
The Atlantic is a mess this morning!



Aren't you in San Francisco? Are you up really early or up really late??

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within 48 hrs 10% 10% 70% 10% only reason my character gets it right is by luck
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Will be off for a while to update my computer.
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TRIO OF INVESTS
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Quoting pottery:

Actually, rethinking that.... (it's early and my brain is slow...)
55w 13n would more likely result in fine and clear weather here at 61w 11n, as the weather will tend to be lifted north of here into that system.
If it pans out.


The GFS takes it into the Caribbean near 14N, too high to give you much in the way of rain.
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Invest 92L looking pretty good right now..



Invest 94L is looking good right now too.



This will probably be Invest 95L soon, I think.



Invest 93L is looking a little disorganized, probably because its trying to lift out of the ITCZ.



See ya guys.
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1547. ncstorm
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Excerpt from CW. Seems like each model run brings it just a little further south and west.


As for a forecast track, given its performance so far this Hurricane Season and in past seasons, I am leaning more towards the westward track of the European model guidance. I think given its current position that it will miss the trough of low pressure that will track east-northeastward off of the US East Coast during the early and middle part of next week. This means that Invest 93L should continue to track on a westward course. Yesterday afternoon’s European model forecast showed a track that took it across the northern most Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday and Thursday. The latest European model forecast shows a much further south track and forecasts Invest 93L to track across Martinique on Tuesday night and then westward from there to impact Jamaica next Friday, the Cayman Islands next Friday night into next Saturday morning and then ultimately the Yucatan Peninsula next Sunday.


the GFS OOZ had it recurving towards Bermuda, thats not south and west..006 is the only run bringing it south and west into Texas..GFDL keeps it south and west but hardly develops it and I doubt that 93L is not going to develop before reaching the islands..we shall see though..ECWMF also first run keeping it south..but these are only one model run..nothing consistent in those solutions coming from the models
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Quoting pottery:

55w 13n would mean rain here.
Could use some of that, but I would rather it were just some ITCZ showers.......

Not liking that track forecast.


I dont like it either but there is a long way to go before it becomes a threat to anyone.
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1544. pottery
Quoting pottery:

55w 13n would mean rain here.
Could use some of that, but I would rather it were just some ITCZ showers.......

Not liking that track forecast.

Actually, rethinking that.... (it's early and my brain is slow...)
55w 13n would more likely result in fine and clear weather here at 61w 11n, as the weather will tend to be lifted north of here into that system.
If it pans out.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24927
I cant see most of 93L, METEOSAT sucks.
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Quoting ncstorm:


on one model run he is saying that?
Excerpt from CW. Seems like each model run brings it just a little further south and west.


As for a forecast track, given its performance so far this Hurricane Season and in past seasons, I am leaning more towards the westward track of the European model guidance. I think given its current position that it will miss the trough of low pressure that will track east-northeastward off of the US East Coast during the early and middle part of next week. This means that Invest 93L should continue to track on a westward course. Yesterday afternoon’s European model forecast showed a track that took it across the northern most Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday and Thursday. The latest European model forecast shows a much further south track and forecasts Invest 93L to track across Martinique on Tuesday night and then westward from there to impact Jamaica next Friday, the Cayman Islands next Friday night into next Saturday morning and then ultimately the Yucatan Peninsula next Sunday.
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Just stopping in before I head to school - Now we have 94L? So...92L, 93L, 94L...Is there going to be a 95L before I get back from school, lol.

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30, 20, 40, 40

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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Crownweather says some models are showing 93L(or whatever it becomes) crossing over Ja. next Friday and the Cayman Islands Fri-Sat.


Long range the GFS takes it right over us and into the GOM intensifying through the Yucatan channel. Too far out to worry about for now.
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Ummm... The Gfs can't make up it's poor little mind. 6 hour difference in the run and 2 way different solutions. 93L recurving now 93L hitting Mid Texas. GFS has major issues.
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1536. ackee
WOW can any one post NHC outlook 8am 3 meduim and one low chance of devlopment would be something if all 4 devlop in a name storm
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1535. ncstorm
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Crownweather says some models are showing 93L(or whatever it becomes) crossing over Ja. next Friday and the Cayman Islands Fri-Sat.


on one model run he is saying that?
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1534. SLU
000
ABNT20 KNHC 121156
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1175 MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT NEAR 20
MPH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
ABOUT 160 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE THIS DISTURBANCE MERGES WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD
LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 700 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



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1533. ncstorm
Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning

92L seems to be heading off to the WNW and eventually the N Atl. 93L, though somewhat weaker this morning, is the threat to watch for downstream. The GFS takes it all the way to the central Caribbean just South of Haiti at a lat. of about 15N on the 19th. The last run does not show a strong system at this time but that does not mean much this far out. The ridge of high pressure is shown as stretching all the way to the SE coast of the US by next Friday with the flow continuing West through the GOM.

For now just watch to see if the Westerly track verifies to a position near 55W and 13N.

GFS next Wednesday






its one run..lets see if its consistent which unfortunately it hasnt been since this storm came off the coast..frankly, it may come down to satellite images and throw the models out when forecasting these storms as they approach land masses because they are going back and forth with different directions.
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1532. pottery
Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning

92L seems to be heading off to the WNW and eventually the N Atl. 93L, though somewhat weaker this morning, is the threat to watch for downstream. The GFS takes it all the way to the central Caribbean just South of Haiti at a lat. of about 15N on the 19th. The last run does not show a strong system at this time but that does not mean much this far out. The ridge of high pressure is shown as stretching all the way to the SE coast of the US by next Friday with the flow continuing West through the GOM.

For now just watch to see if the Westerly track verifies to a position near 55W and 13N.

GFS next Wednesday





55w 13n would mean rain here.
Could use some of that, but I would rather it were just some ITCZ showers.......

Not liking that track forecast.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24927
Quoting ackee:
0Z6 GFS and EURO seem to be in some agreement interms of track an intensity


I was just going to say that. A long way out. But I wouldn't hate this.



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finally!

00
ABNT20 KNHC 121156
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1175 MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT NEAR 20
MPH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
ABOUT 160 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE THIS DISTURBANCE MERGES WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD
LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 700 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning

92L seems to be heading off to the WNW and eventually the N Atl. 93L, though somewhat weaker this morning, is the threat to watch for downstream. The GFS takes it all the way to the central Caribbean just South of Haiti at a lat. of about 15N on the 19th. The last run does not show a strong system at this time but that does not mean much this far out. The ridge of high pressure is shown as stretching all the way to the SE coast of the US by next Friday with the flow continuing West through the GOM.

For now just watch to see if the Westerly track verifies to a position near 55W and 13N.

GFS next Wednesday




Crownweather says some models are showing 93L(or whatever it becomes) crossing over Ja. next Friday and the Cayman Islands Fri-Sat.
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Quoting angelafritz:
The Atlantic is a mess this morning!


I know, what to do with 92 l and 93 l and then comes 94 l the nhc has some work to do
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1527. ackee
Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning

92L seems to be heading off to the WNW and eventually the N Atl. 93L, though somewhat weaker this morning, is the threat to watch for downstream. The GFS takes it all the way to the central Caribbean just South of Haiti at a lat. of about 15N on the 19th. The last run does not show a strong system at this time but that does not mean much this far out. The ridge of high pressure is shown as stretching all the way to the SE coast of the US by next Friday with the flow continuing West through the GOM.

For now just watch to see if the Westerly track verifies to a position near 55W and 13N.

GFS next Wednesday




0Z6 GFS and EURO seem to be in some agreement interms of track an intensity
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Quoting Tazmanian:



i wounder where 94L is

24.9N/54.5W. IOW, the 10% (yellow) AOI. (As ncstorm says, what was left of Emily, but given a new ID.)
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And the full 94L file:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al942011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201108121145
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 94, 2011, DB, O, 2011081212, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL942011
AL, 94, 2011081106, , BEST, 0, 266N, 503W, 25, 1014, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2011081112, , BEST, 0, 260N, 509W, 25, 1014, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 250, 50, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2011081118, , BEST, 0, 255N, 518W, 25, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 300, 40, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2011081200, , BEST, 0, 252N, 527W, 25, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 300, 50, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2011081206, , BEST, 0, 250N, 536W, 25, 1013, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 300, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning

92L seems to be heading off to the WNW and eventually the N Atl. 93L, though somewhat weaker this morning, is the threat to watch for downstream. The GFS takes it all the way to the central Caribbean just South of Haiti at a lat. of about 15N on the 19th. The last run does not show a strong system at this time but that does not mean much this far out. The ridge of high pressure is shown as stretching all the way to the SE coast of the US by next Friday with the flow continuing West through the GOM.

For now just watch to see if the Westerly track verifies to a position near 55W and 13N.

GFS next Wednesday




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1523. ncstorm
Quoting angelafritz:
The Atlantic is a mess this morning!


A hot mess! LOL!
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94L already designated?

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1521. ackee
WOW if 94L 93L and 92L intresting I think the race is on see who will become the next name storm
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1520. angelafritz (Admin)
The Atlantic is a mess this morning!
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Link?


Here's the link to the NAM model:

CLICK HERE
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1518. ncstorm
Quoting hunkerdown:
in some manner but seems to be treated as a whole new entity


okay thanks
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1517. ncstorm
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Quoting ncstorm:


Emily?
in some manner but seems to be treated as a whole new entity
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Quoting Neapolitan:

24.9N/54.5W. IOW, the 10% (yellow) AOI. (As ncstorm says, what was left of Emily, but given a new ID.)



ok
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Quoting ncstorm:


Emily?



nop
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Quoting weatherman566:


Hey everyone-

I think it's worth noting the 4th area of storms circled by the NHC. This is moving west/southwestward and the NAM has something forming in 84 hours pretty close to home. NAM has done an excellent job this year finding these smaller systems that the GFS and EURO have problems finding.


Link?
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Quoting Tazmanian:



i wounder where 94L is
24.9N 54.5W
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Quoting Tazmanian:



i wounder where 94L is

24.9N/54.5W. IOW, the 10% (yellow) AOI. (As ncstorm says, what was left of Emily, but given a new ID.)
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1510. ncstorm
Quoting Neapolitan:
And a new one, 94L:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al942011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201108121132
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 94, 2011, DB, O, 2011081212, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL942011
AL, 94, 2011081212, , BEST, 0, 249N, 545W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,


Emily?
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Quoting weatherman566:


Hey everyone-

I think it's worth noting the 4th area of storms circled by the NHC. This is moving west/southwestward and the NAM has something forming in 84 hours pretty close to home. NAM has done an excellent job this year finding these smaller systems that the GFS and EURO have problems finding.
Puts it just north of Haiti again.
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