Two African waves, 92L and 93L, worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:59 PM GMT on August 11, 2011

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An African wave is near 13°N 35°W, about 700 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. This system, (Invest 92L), is moving west to west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm before arriving near the northern Lesser Antilles Islands early next week. Recent visible satellite loops show that 92L has less heavy thunderstorm activity near where it is trying to develop its circulation center than yesterday. Water vapor satellite loops that a large area of dry air lies just to the west of 92L, but the atmosphere in the immediate vicinity of 92L is moist. Even so, the decline of heavy thunderstorm activity since yesterday implies that dry air is probably working its way into 92L. The SHIPS model and University of Wisconsin CIMSS wind shear analysis are showing moderate wind shear of 10 - 15 knots affecting 92L. Sea surface temperatures are 26.5° - 27°C, which is very close to the 26.5°C threshold usually needed to support a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite photo of Invest 92L and Invest 93L.

Forecast for 92L
Low to moderate wind shear of 5 - 15 knots is predicted along 92L's path over the coming three days, which should allow the storm to organize, assuming it can shut out any incursions of dry air that might intrude. The latest 00Z and 06Z model runs of the four best models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET) show weak development or no development of 92L, and NHC gave 92L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. A steady west to west-northwest motion for 92L is predicted by all of the models, which would put the storm in the vicinity of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands by Sunday. On Saturday and Sunday, 92L is expected to enter a region where an upper-level low pressure system will bring high wind shear of 20 knots to the storm, which should slow development. This upper-level low is also expected to turn 92L more to the northwest, so the storm is likely to pass north of the Lesser Antilles, though may pass close enough to give heavy rains to the northernmost islands. It is too early to know if 92L will recurve out to sea and potentially threaten Bermuda, or continue to the northwest towards the U.S. East Coast.

93L
An African wave that emerged off the coast of Africa is near 10°N 22°W, a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This system, (Invest 93L), is also moving west at 10 - 15 mph, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm before arriving near the northern Lesser Antilles Islands near the middle of next week. Recent visible satellite loops show that 93L has a decent amount of heavy thunderstorms, but this activity is not well organized. There is not much spin associated with 93L yet. 93L is fairly well-protected from dry air to its north and west. The SHIPS model and University of Wisconsin CIMSS wind shear analysis are showing moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting 93L. Sea surface temperatures are 27.5°C, which is one degree above the 26.5°C threshold usually needed to support a tropical storm.

Forecast for 93L
Moderate wind shear below 20 knots is predicted along 93L's path over the coming five days, which should allow the storm to steadily organize. 93L is about 600 miles east of 92L, which is close enough that the two systems may interfere with each others' organization. The latest 00Z and 06Z model runs of the four best models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET), have only one model, the GFS, that is indicating significant development of 93L. This model brings 93L near the northern Lesser Antilles Islands by Wednesday. NHC gave 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. Due to moister air, the potential for less wind shear, and a more southerly track, 93L is probably a greater threat to the Lesser Antilles than 92L.

Jeff Masters

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1659. SaraGal
Quoting Grothar:
You think the Atlantice is active now, just wait and look at the wave train




Ok, Gro -- fess up! You're using your fancy new photoshop program :)
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1658. ncstorm
From Allan Huffman yesterday..

The Islands need to watch both systems as they could threaten the Islands in a few to several days. Beyond this, the global models favor a persistent trough in the Northeast US and in the eastern US in general. Therefore the chance to re-curve is high, but if the western Atlantic ridge is in a flexing stage this could mean a close pass to the southeast coast. The 12z ECMWF shows Invest93 modestly developing and eventually moving into the Bahamas in 8-10 days and poised to threaten Florida or the southeast coast. So the theme is here, stay tuned, we are in the time of year now where these waves can develop and the strong Atlantic ridge should steer them west for a while.

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4 invests! Is it the record?
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Wow. NHC is going to have to pull the paper wrapping off their crayons so they can use the sides soon.
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Quoting hurricane23:


Actually one can read between the lines as none of these current invest pose an immediate threat to any land areas. With four systems being monitored in Atlantic for potential tropical development its another reminder that the active part of cane season is here.


Agreed.
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Wow I haven't been on in a few days. Looks like the NHC may need a new box of crayons in a few days.
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1653. barbamz
Quoting Grothar:
You think the Atlantice is active now, just wait and look at the wave train



I'm a train, I'm a train: http://www.myvideo.de/watch/2938516/Albert_Hammon d_I_m_A_Train
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Dang...I wake up this morning to 4 invests out there!
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Fujiwara? Where are the hurricanes?
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1649. MahFL
The drought in TX got worse, Exceptional went up from
73.49% to 78.26%.


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1648. hcubed
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Would we be beating 2010 and 2008 if all 4 form?


If all four form, we'll be tied with 2005.

The last time these names were used...
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Quoting hurricane23:
Atlantic is active this morning but the good news is none of these systems pose a threat to land areas.



Should have said

Atlantic is active this morning but the good news is none of these systems pose a threat to land areas at the current time.


Saying with conviction that these will not effect land is just as bad as saying it will, your just on the other side of the coin.


Actually one can read between the lines as none of these current invest pose an immediate threat to any land areas. With four systems being monitored in Atlantic for potential tropical development its another reminder that the active part of cane season is here.
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Quoting SuperYooper:


Fuji Apples.


Fuji Film
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Quoting Grothar:
You think the Atlantice is active now, just wait and look at the wave train


Dooms Days ahead.
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So much exciting for all the invest.Everyone likes hurricanes everywhere.Later comes the "I'm sorry''.
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Quoting BobinTampa:
what's the over/under on what time somebody says 'Fujiwhara'? (besides this post obviously).



Fuji Apples.
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1642. Hugo7
Looking at invest all have noticable rotation but 93
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I can't pull them up either Huricaneer
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1640. hcubed
Well, this season's a bust

/sarc off
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1639. Grothar
You think the Atlantice is active now, just wait and look at the wave train


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23673
1638. ncstorm
Quoting Huracaneer:
Tried this morning to get to the FSU model site at moe.met.fsu.edu and it times out. Is it just me or is their site down? Also having trouble reaching the Allan Huffman's model site, can't even find the page. Can anybody reach these? Four invests on the Atlantic and I can't reach my favorite sites! The horror!


I couldnt get on eithier..Try Penn State site

Link
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Would we be beating 2010 and 2008 if all 4 form?
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Tried this morning to get to the FSU model site at moe.met.fsu.edu and it times out. Is it just me or is their site down? Also having trouble reaching the Allan Huffman's model site, can't even find the page. Can anybody reach these? Four invests on the Atlantic and I can't reach my favorite sites! The horror!
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1635. Hugo7
They should look at 92 a little harder, seems to have some decent rotation now.
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Quoting hurricane23:
Atlantic is active this morning but the good news is none of these systems pose a threat to land areas.



Should have said

Atlantic is active this morning but the good news is none of these systems pose a threat to land areas at the current time.


Saying with conviction that these will not effect land is just as bad as saying it will, your just on the other side of the coin.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 4863
Quoting FLdewey:


What's the time period? Daily, weekly, etc.



knowing this blog, i'd say hourly at most. more likely minutely.

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If all the invests form(which likely wont happen) This is how it would work out....
Franklin: 95L
Gert: 92L
Harvey: 94L
Irene: 93L
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
1631. SLU

Updated
099

WHXX01 KWBC 121230

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1230 UTC FRI AUG 12 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952011) 20110812 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110812 1200 110813 0000 110813 1200 110814 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 34.8N 66.8W 35.8N 64.0W 36.7N 61.9W 37.5N 60.2W

BAMD 34.8N 66.8W 37.1N 62.5W 39.7N 57.8W 42.2N 51.0W

BAMM 34.8N 66.8W 36.6N 63.3W 38.4N 60.0W 40.0N 56.1W

LBAR 34.8N 66.8W 37.1N 63.0W 40.4N 58.8W 43.8N 53.2W

SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS 43KTS

DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS 43KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110814 1200 110815 1200 110816 1200 110817 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 38.4N 58.6W 39.7N 54.0W 40.7N 49.8W 42.6N 45.3W

BAMD 43.4N 42.5W 44.5N 25.9W 46.7N 8.0W 48.6N 8.5E

BAMM 41.1N 51.8W 42.1N 43.7W 40.9N 38.3W 39.3N 37.2W

LBAR 46.2N 45.1W .0N .0W .0N .0W .0N .0W

SHIP 44KTS 34KTS 21KTS 0KTS

DSHP 44KTS 34KTS 21KTS 0KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 34.8N LONCUR = 66.8W DIRCUR = 55DEG SPDCUR = 19KT

LATM12 = 32.5N LONM12 = 70.6W DIRM12 = 53DEG SPDM12 = 19KT

LATM24 = 30.4N LONM24 = 74.0W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN





640

WHXX01 KWBC 121239

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1239 UTC FRI AUG 12 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932011) 20110812 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110812 1200 110813 0000 110813 1200 110814 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 11.3N 30.3W 11.2N 31.8W 11.0N 33.8W 10.8N 36.1W

BAMD 11.3N 30.3W 11.4N 32.9W 11.4N 35.5W 11.5N 38.0W

BAMM 11.3N 30.3W 11.3N 32.5W 11.1N 34.8W 11.2N 37.2W

LBAR 11.3N 30.3W 11.7N 33.8W 12.0N 37.3W 12.4N 40.7W

SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 29KTS 33KTS

DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 29KTS 33KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110814 1200 110815 1200 110816 1200 110817 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 11.0N 38.7W 12.4N 44.1W 14.7N 50.8W 17.0N 58.9W

BAMD 11.6N 40.4W 12.4N 44.5W 14.1N 48.4W 16.7N 52.1W

BAMM 11.4N 39.6W 12.6N 44.3W 14.5N 49.5W 16.9N 55.0W

LBAR 12.8N 44.1W 13.1N 49.9W 12.1N 53.1W .0N .0W

SHIP 41KTS 55KTS 63KTS 65KTS

DSHP 41KTS 55KTS 63KTS 65KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 11.3N LONCUR = 30.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 19KT

LATM12 = 11.0N LONM12 = 26.5W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 19KT

LATM24 = 10.6N LONM24 = 22.8W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN





352

WHXX01 KWBC 121243

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1243 UTC FRI AUG 12 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942011) 20110812 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110812 1200 110813 0000 110813 1200 110814 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 24.7N 54.7W 25.5N 56.6W 26.3N 58.7W 27.2N 60.5W

BAMD 24.7N 54.7W 25.1N 56.4W 25.9N 57.7W 26.7N 58.8W

BAMM 24.7N 54.7W 25.5N 56.5W 26.4N 58.2W 27.4N 59.4W

LBAR 24.7N 54.7W 25.1N 56.7W 26.1N 58.7W 26.9N 60.7W

SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS

DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110814 1200 110815 1200 110816 1200 110817 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 28.0N 62.0W 30.6N 64.5W 36.2N 63.0W 41.7N 53.0W

BAMD 27.4N 59.6W 29.1N 60.6W 31.1N 61.0W 34.6N 58.9W

BAMM 28.4N 60.2W 31.0N 60.4W 33.7N 58.1W 35.5N 54.3W

LBAR 28.1N 62.2W 31.7N 63.0W 37.1N 59.0W 41.8N 49.6W

SHIP 48KTS 55KTS 54KTS 51KTS

DSHP 48KTS 55KTS 54KTS 51KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 24.7N LONCUR = 54.7W DIRCUR = 255DEG SPDCUR = 9KT

LATM12 = 25.2N LONM12 = 52.7W DIRM12 = 253DEG SPDM12 = 9KT

LATM24 = 26.0N LONM24 = 50.9W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN





429

WHXX01 KWBC 121245

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1245 UTC FRI AUG 12 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922011) 20110812 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110812 1200 110813 0000 110813 1200 110814 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 17.8N 45.3W 19.0N 48.9W 20.3N 52.6W 22.0N 55.9W

BAMD 17.8N 45.3W 19.0N 48.5W 20.1N 51.5W 21.2N 54.1W

BAMM 17.8N 45.3W 19.0N 48.6W 20.3N 51.9W 21.7N 54.8W

LBAR 17.8N 45.3W 19.5N 48.8W 21.2N 52.2W 22.9N 55.3W

SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 38KTS

DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 38KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110814 1200 110815 1200 110816 1200 110817 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 23.5N 58.8W 27.0N 63.4W 31.6N 65.2W 37.3N 60.5W

BAMD 22.2N 56.4W 24.0N 60.3W 25.7N 64.1W 27.9N 66.4W

BAMM 23.1N 57.4W 26.0N 61.5W 29.6N 64.0W 34.9N 62.0W

LBAR 24.5N 57.7W 28.1N 59.9W 31.5N 59.3W 32.8N 56.7W

SHIP 43KTS 48KTS 52KTS 61KTS

DSHP 43KTS 48KTS 52KTS 61KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 17.8N LONCUR = 45.3W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 20KT

LATM12 = 16.2N LONM12 = 41.4W DIRM12 = 294DEG SPDM12 = 20KT

LATM24 = 14.6N LONM24 = 37.4W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN

Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4731
H23 I agree that 11 days out to make a call at the caymans jamiaca or eventually the yucatan is pretty far fetched. Especially how the models have handled things so far this year. But your statement saying none of these pose a threat is absurd. I saw a GFS run that shows some mischief in the GOM in 13 days.
I won't completely rule it out but, will rather watch wait and be informed and try to give and get good responsible info.
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Quoting stormpetrol:


Wish I could honestly believe that, and you know what, deep down you know better! Ever heard of cutting off your nose to spite your face " think about it man"


??

Do any of these systems pose an immediate threat to any landmass at the current time?
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All the BORICUAS should watch carefully the evolution of 93L.
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These appear to be the final 12Z coordinates

AL 92 2011081212 BEST 0 178N 453W 25 1011 LO

AL 93 2011081212 BEST 0 113N 303W 25 1011 LO

AL 94 2011081212 BEST 0 247N 547W 25 1013 DB

AL 95 2011081212 BEST 0 348N 668W 25 1011 DB
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Quoting hurricane23:
Atlantic is active this morning but the good news is none of these systems pose a threat to land areas.


Wish I could honestly believe that, and you know what, deep down you know better! Ever heard of cutting off your nose to spite your face " think about it man"
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1623. SLU
A few polls:
Which one might become Franklin?
A.92L
B.93L
C.94L
D.95L

Which one might become Gert?
A.92L
B.93L
C.94L
D.95L

Which might become Harvey?
A.92L
B.93L
C.94L
D.95L

What about Irene maybe?
A.92L
B.93L
C.94L
D.95L

92L
A.TD-TS
B.Stronger
93L
A.TD-TS
B.Stronger
94L
A.TD-TS
B.Stronger

95L
A.TD-TS
B.Stronger
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4731
1622. ncstorm
Quoting barbamz:


Wow, Invest 95 is heading directly to my place in Germany. Should I buy some plywood???
Good morning, btw.

If there is a Home Depot in Germany, it stands to make a killing..LOL!
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Fujiwhara
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Quoting hurricane23:


Kinda of early to make this call... 11 days is an eternity for modeling synoptic scales, let alone TCs. Odds of verifying = low


Geez, what a downcaster u are.
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1619. barbamz
Quoting ncstorm:
a different way of seeing the invest??



Wow, Invest 95 is heading directly to my place in Germany. Should I buy some plywood???
Good morning, btw.
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Anyone have a link to GFDL n HWRF model run site...the one I have cant be displayed for some reason this morning...Thanks!!
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what's the over/under on what time somebody says 'Fujiwhara'? (besides this post obviously).

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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
this looks bad

from crownweather

"What does this all mean? Well, I think Invest 93L poses a very real threat as a tropical storm or even a hurricane to the Lesser Antilles for Tuesday and then may become a real threat as a possible hurricane to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and the Yucatan Peninsula from Wednesday to Sunday of next week."


Kinda of early to make this call... 11 days is an eternity for modeling synoptic scales, let alone TCs. Odds of verifying = low
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Wow,
these systems are getting going,
92L: 40% up again; Slow organizer
93L: 40% same; Slow organizer
94L: 20% Up; Possible slow development
95L: 30% Up; development possible, impressive little system.... say 50 to 70% at next TWO or special advisory.

Its pretty weird when NHC has to use all the floaters from GOES to track the systems in the ATL.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting hurricane23:
Atlantic is active this morning but the good news is none of these systems pose a threat to land areas.


Do you mean immediately? Or ever?
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Quoting hurricane23:
Atlantic is active this morning but the good news is none of these systems pose a threat to land areas.


Not YET!!!
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Good Morning. Nothing fully cooking yet but I don't ever remember a time seeing 4 circles at the same time since NHC switched to this system. Does not look like any threat to land at the moment with the exception of 93L possibly going into the Caribbean per the latest model runs this am.
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this looks bad

from crownweather

"What does this all mean? Well, I think Invest 93L poses a very real threat as a tropical storm or even a hurricane to the Lesser Antilles for Tuesday and then may become a real threat as a possible hurricane to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and the Yucatan Peninsula from Wednesday to Sunday of next week."
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Atlantic is active this morning but the good news is none of these systems pose a threat to land areas.
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Quoting ncstorm:
a different way of seeing the invest??


Probably becaus the BAMD forecasts a coordinate that is in the eastern hemisphere
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.