Two African waves, 92L and 93L, worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:59 PM GMT on August 11, 2011

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An African wave is near 13°N 35°W, about 700 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. This system, (Invest 92L), is moving west to west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm before arriving near the northern Lesser Antilles Islands early next week. Recent visible satellite loops show that 92L has less heavy thunderstorm activity near where it is trying to develop its circulation center than yesterday. Water vapor satellite loops that a large area of dry air lies just to the west of 92L, but the atmosphere in the immediate vicinity of 92L is moist. Even so, the decline of heavy thunderstorm activity since yesterday implies that dry air is probably working its way into 92L. The SHIPS model and University of Wisconsin CIMSS wind shear analysis are showing moderate wind shear of 10 - 15 knots affecting 92L. Sea surface temperatures are 26.5° - 27°C, which is very close to the 26.5°C threshold usually needed to support a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite photo of Invest 92L and Invest 93L.

Forecast for 92L
Low to moderate wind shear of 5 - 15 knots is predicted along 92L's path over the coming three days, which should allow the storm to organize, assuming it can shut out any incursions of dry air that might intrude. The latest 00Z and 06Z model runs of the four best models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET) show weak development or no development of 92L, and NHC gave 92L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. A steady west to west-northwest motion for 92L is predicted by all of the models, which would put the storm in the vicinity of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands by Sunday. On Saturday and Sunday, 92L is expected to enter a region where an upper-level low pressure system will bring high wind shear of 20 knots to the storm, which should slow development. This upper-level low is also expected to turn 92L more to the northwest, so the storm is likely to pass north of the Lesser Antilles, though may pass close enough to give heavy rains to the northernmost islands. It is too early to know if 92L will recurve out to sea and potentially threaten Bermuda, or continue to the northwest towards the U.S. East Coast.

93L
An African wave that emerged off the coast of Africa is near 10°N 22°W, a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This system, (Invest 93L), is also moving west at 10 - 15 mph, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm before arriving near the northern Lesser Antilles Islands near the middle of next week. Recent visible satellite loops show that 93L has a decent amount of heavy thunderstorms, but this activity is not well organized. There is not much spin associated with 93L yet. 93L is fairly well-protected from dry air to its north and west. The SHIPS model and University of Wisconsin CIMSS wind shear analysis are showing moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting 93L. Sea surface temperatures are 27.5°C, which is one degree above the 26.5°C threshold usually needed to support a tropical storm.

Forecast for 93L
Moderate wind shear below 20 knots is predicted along 93L's path over the coming five days, which should allow the storm to steadily organize. 93L is about 600 miles east of 92L, which is close enough that the two systems may interfere with each others' organization. The latest 00Z and 06Z model runs of the four best models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET), have only one model, the GFS, that is indicating significant development of 93L. This model brings 93L near the northern Lesser Antilles Islands by Wednesday. NHC gave 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. Due to moister air, the potential for less wind shear, and a more southerly track, 93L is probably a greater threat to the Lesser Antilles than 92L.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Jebekarue:
How can they be so close and not doing a dance?

Wrong music.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 111741
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU AUG 11 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 750 MILES WEST OF
THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS DISTURBANCE IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH
OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
THE SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER THE
ATLANTIC ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAROLINAS AND BERMUDA ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

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Good afternoon

I have noted many posts that comment about the ragged look of 92L and how neither of the two invests seem to be doing much by way of organizing.

An important factor that is being overlooked is that both invests are still firmly in the grip of the monsoon trough. Until they separate out on a stand alone basis development will of necessity be slow. Of course, the longer they take to do so the greater the risk of a motion further West and South and the potential to threaten the NE Caribbean Islands.Once 92L reaches about 45W it should have outrun the trough so let's see what happens after that. Until then it will probably be slow going on the development front.

I have posted the surface map showing the ITCZ and the two lows.

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Quoting NOLALawyer:
This season is shaping up to be another nail biter and stroke inducer. I cannot even come to grips with the fact that we are looking down the barrel of another 2010 in terms of pattern and the possibility of going another entire season without a significant US landfall.

Unreal.


It will most likely change.

Hurricane Protection Set to Expire August 17
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How can they be so close and not doing a dance?
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This season is shaping up to be another nail biter and stroke inducer. I cannot even come to grips with the fact that we are looking down the barrel of another 2010 in terms of pattern and the possibility of going another entire season without a significant US landfall.

Unreal.
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Quoting USAFwxguy:


Thanks. Maybe I will point them to this forum. I see a lot of interesting takes ... is it always this animated?


Well, it becomes a bit like animal house when a storm actually develops. Thanks for the insight - glad to have you aboard.
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the structure and organisation of 92L and 93L is causing some difficulty inthe iniiaasation of direction and strengh of these two distubances. The dynamic models are having a hard time. as long as there are no centres to track the models are at sea. It should be noted that as long as the systems remain weak they will continue going west.
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Quoting USAFwxguy:


Thanks. Maybe I will point them to this forum. I see a lot of interesting takes ... is it always this animated?


Most of the times... but you might have to filter out quite a bit of "junk". Now that "kids" will be going to school soon it will make it a little bit more bearable. :)
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First time seeing red on the map (map 2)for a long time



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Surprise, Surprise... 93L wants to get going...
000
ABNT20 KNHC 111741
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU AUG 11 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 750 MILES WEST OF
THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS DISTURBANCE IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH
OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
THE SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER THE
ATLANTIC ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAROLINAS AND BERMUDA ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

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Quoting USAFwxguy:


Thanks. Maybe I will point them to this forum. I see a lot of interesting takes ... is it always this animated?


Today seems very quiet. Wait until we get a named storm.
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
5day GFS shows the current pattern continuing thru the forecast period. Note the 500mb troughs on the east & west coast with the ridge between I pointed out in my last comment.





Yup, the GOA low keeps pumpin' the Texas Ridge - gotta trof somewhere!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 750 MILES WEST OF
THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS DISTURBANCE IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH
OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
THE SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting USAFwxguy:
Wow... if the guys on my team had these kind of arguments, we'd all have to find new jobs!

See a lot of discussion about "patterns" and such, which is useful discussion I suppose. However, pattern changes seen in the out-days of a forecast period in the ensembles are no more trustworthy than the individual member's solution.

Long-range modeling isn't always wrong, nor is it always right. However, if a long-range solution makes to the medium-range, then short-range ... maybe you have something. If it keeps being in the "long-range" then whatever you see is less of a certainty.

Make sense?

Either way, there is plenty of time for awareness campaigns in an affected area prior to a landfall.

Preparedness preceeds awareness (of an impending threat), which makes your actions easier to execute.


Great post. Maybe your team should join up too! :-)
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Anyone would have a hard time interpreting the strength of a trough 5 days out. I am just stating the current dynamics forecast and as always subject to change, it is 5 days out ya know.


I wasnt disagreeing with you..and you are right..it will be hard to forecast anything 5 days out..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15666
Quoting USAFwxguy:
CMC may differ from GFS ... high building in to the north...

Interesting that the CMC doesn't develop 93L...
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Quoting ncstorm:


thats only the GFS run which has a reputation of overdoing troughs..if you look at the ensemble members of the GFS there is a more western component with 93L..its having a hard time interpreting how strong the trough will be..


Anyone would have a hard time interpreting the strength of a trough 5 days out. I am just stating the current dynamics forecast and as always subject to change, it is 5 days out ya know.
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yep but that is only as of 8/16. It seems that many forecasters are saying it could be this way until at least the 25th of this month then suddenly troughs are less and a consistent high builds in

however, weather is so weird that that could change also
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:




Notice the stated flow from the Pacific? That could be the beginning of the pattern change as the trough becomes less amplified and allows the ridge to build westward...


exactly..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15666
Quoting weatherman12345:
last time i checked 92l was 5 days from the northern islands... shows how much you know
Where are you located?
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183. JRRP
CMC
92L
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5966
182. wpb
gfs 6z 92 weak 93 strong hurricane
gfs 12z 92 string hurricane late 93 weak
and location south and west.
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Odds for development increasing.
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
5day GFS shows the current pattern continuing thru the forecast period. Note the 500mb troughs on the east & west coast with the ridge between I pointed out in my last comment.




thats only the GFS run which has a reputation of overdoing troughs..if you look at the ensemble members of the GFS there is a more western component with 93L..its having a hard time interpreting how strong the trough will be..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15666
Quoting ncstorm:


Yes but the trough is supposed to weaken come early next week..timing and set up of troughs and high..everyone needs to watch both storms if you ask me..

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
959 AM EDT THU AUG 11 2011

VALID 12Z MON AUG 15 2011 - 12Z THU AUG 18 2011

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES AGREE ON THE LARGER SCALE DEVELOPMENT OF A
CENTRAL US MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SANDWICHED BY AMPLIFIED TROUGHS
ALONG/OFF THE WEST COAST AND OVER THE ERN US/EAST COAST INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THESE WEAKEN LATER NEXT WEEK AS FLOW INCREASES
ACROSS/INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC.

IN THIS PATTERN...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE OVERALL IN
SUPPORT OF THIS GENERAL SCENARIO.




Notice the stated flow from the Pacific? That could be the beginning of the pattern change as the trough becomes less amplified and allows the ridge to build westward...
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Quoting reedzone:


Really, perhaps you weren't thee when I predicted Bill to glaze New England.. Or maybe you weren't there last year when I predicted Earl to scrape the East Coast while all models had it hitting Bermuda. Most models have an east bias, watch the models shift a bit more westward in time with both invests.
"bill glazed new england"????,eeeeeew!!!,not wx related!,lol
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At the moment both systems don't look too well. 93L looks a little better though. I can see why the ECMWF doesn't do much with them. Development probably won't happen until they get near the islands. I have a gut feeling 92L will be the one that doesn't develop or amount to anything much.
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5day GFS shows the current pattern continuing thru the forecast period. Note the 500mb troughs on the east & west coast with the ridge between I pointed out in my last comment.


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Quoting ProgressivePulse:



Good thing to monitor for that pattern change is the central US high would need to migrate to the west coast for that to happen. Current set up is a trough on the east & west coast with a ridge between. That pattern change, if it happens, will be front page news for Texans and others experiencing drought in the SW, you'll surely know about it.


Yes but the trough is supposed to weaken come early next week..timing and set up of troughs and high..everyone needs to watch both storms if you ask me..

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
959 AM EDT THU AUG 11 2011

VALID 12Z MON AUG 15 2011 - 12Z THU AUG 18 2011

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES AGREE ON THE LARGER SCALE DEVELOPMENT OF A
CENTRAL US MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SANDWICHED BY AMPLIFIED TROUGHS
ALONG/OFF THE WEST COAST AND OVER THE ERN US/EAST COAST INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THESE WEAKEN LATER NEXT WEEK AS FLOW INCREASES
ACROSS/INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC.

IN THIS PATTERN...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE OVERALL IN
SUPPORT OF THIS GENERAL SCENARIO.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15666
So glad I am heading off to bed. Everyone pull ya heads in and tuck ya ego's back into ya pants. Let's all calm down and get back onto the tropics, it's not a ego blog it's a weather blog for goodness sake.

Stay Safe all. Goodnight
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Quoting kshipre1:
Honestly, I tend to agree with everyone who has chimed in regarding 93L and future tropical systems. Timing is a big factor regardless of if a strong/weak high or strong/weak trough is in place to steer or recurve storms.

The fact of the matter is that everyone keeps on talking about the EURO, GFS, NOGAPS, etc…. within 10 days or so.

If we all remember what Levi, the guy at Crown Weather and others have been saying (unless things have changed) is that the pattern change is coming up as early as 8-15 days, meaning it could be later but the consensus is that all the troughs should be moving westward making way for a westward stronger Bermuda High increasing the likelihood of storms to impact the SE CONUS

Is this a guarantee?? Well of course not but the logic and patterns favor this.

Models should be taken into account but not before a storm has even formed. If the High is strong and acts as a steering mechanism then a whole lot of people could be in a heap of trouble and if troughs are there at the right time, they will recurve

All I can say is that the patterns the past couple of years are certainly different from 2004 and 2005 when storms were slamming into Florida left and right.



Good thing to monitor for that pattern change is the central US high would need to migrate to the west coast for that to happen. Current set up is a trough on the east & west coast with a ridge between. That pattern change, if it happens, will be front page news for Texans and others experiencing drought in the SW, you'll surely know about it.
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Quoting 69Viking:


Every year before the season even starts experts predict whether a season is going to be active or not so people have a pretty good idea then and nothing reedzone is saying hasn't been said before somewhere else. I'd rather think it's going to come near the U.S and keep a close eye on it than think it's going to be a fish storm and not keep an eye on it. I think that's the point Reed is trying to make, we need to keep an eye on EVERYTHING until it officially turns out to sea.


Yeah true I don't want to sound like I'm attacking him or anything, I'm just making a point I guess, which is what hes doing too haha.

Let that be clear, I don't want to sound harsh.
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Know an internet troll when you see one.
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this was Earl discussion last year..these storms have a mind of their own...I was trying to find the discussions where they kept saying the Earl would turn way before the bahamams..

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/13. THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS
UNCHANGED AS EARL IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD IN ABOUT 24
HOURS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE
TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED NOTICEABLY WESTWARD DURING THE FIRST
48 HOURS...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
ENVELOPE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED WESTWARD...

PRIMARILY THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF AND THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

THIS IS A GOOD TIME TO REMIND EVERYONE THAT NHC AVERAGE TRACK
FORECAST ERRORS ARE 200 TO 300 MILES AT DAYS 4 AND 5. GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY...IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE WHAT PORTION OF THE U.S.
EAST COAST MIGHT SEE DIRECT IMPACTS FROM EARL.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/2100Z 19.3N 64.7W 115 KT
12HR VT 31/0600Z 20.2N 66.3W 125 KT
24HR VT 31/1800Z 21.7N 68.1W 130 KT
36HR VT 01/0600Z 23.4N 70.1W 130 KT
48HR VT 01/1800Z 25.8N 72.1W 125 KT
72HR VT 02/1800Z 31.6N 74.7W 115 KT
96HR VT 03/1800Z 38.0N 71.0W 95 KT
120HR VT 04/1800Z 45.5N 63.0W 70 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15666
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hello all....stopped by for a minute...BBL :)


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Quoting Jedkins01:


I'm not jumping on him, I just don't think its a good idea to get people worrying that the U.S. is going to have an active season. People should always be prepared for hurricane season, but if we tell them a bunch of hurricanes could hit in a given year, and doesn't happen, it makes us weather people look bad. I know we aren't pros, but as someone who is seeking to be professional meteorologist, I don't want to get people panicking about a particular season. Even more so when the pattern has yet to show any signs of favoring hurricane landfalls.

As i clearly stated, yes the pattern could change, and hurricanes could start making landfall in the U.S. but it hasn't happened yet, so need to get stressed about anything. Even if the pattern does begin to favor southeast U.S. strikes. We still don't want to get people worried, neither should we be worried. When a hurricane comes within a few days of striking the U.S. and computer models have a consensus that it will do so. Then is when we need to start worrying, until then we should always be prepared, regardless if an active period is expected or not.


Every year before the season even starts experts predict whether a season is going to be active or not so people have a pretty good idea then and nothing reedzone is saying hasn't been said before somewhere else. I'd rather think it's going to come near the U.S and keep a close eye on it than think it's going to be a fish storm and not keep an eye on it. I think that's the point Reed is trying to make, we need to keep an eye on EVERYTHING until it officially turns out to sea.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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