Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

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Not a drop of rain from Ems for us in Palm Beaches :(
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting caneswatch:


How ironic.


I pity the people that he counsels. They have no hope at all.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10244
4016. angiest
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
I once saw a cat eat a whole stick of butter.


When we go to Texas Roadhouse, my 5 year old will put a whole scoop of butter on one roll. And when she eats pancakes and bacon, she will often dip the bacon in butter and syrup.

And this is healthy and to be encouraged in her.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RobertFromBrickell:


Well, they all should have evacuated prior to the storm moving in, as simple as that. Mayor Nagen begged and downright pleaded to all of them to leave prior to Katrina moving in, heck, some were even saying those things with tears on the television. Therefore, despite all of that, there were still those that decided not to leave, that was their irresponsibility and not that of NOLA's officials, just saying.


Oh, this will not end well. This is known as kicking a hornet's nest, Robert. LOL.
Member Since: September 3, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 520
Quoting BahaHurican:
I don't understand why we're having the so-called discussion with this Robert character.


Troll feeders need the trolls, as much as the trolls need them.
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Quoting RobertFromBrickell:
Horrid pics, ma'am.
Link
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Quoting FLdewey:


Is this the start of a haiku?


Puke on floor- yellow.
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Floridians: The back of the line is -----> that way

I'm afraid Texas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Arizona, Louisiana, and Georgia were here first for some rain XD
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i was 4 when hurricane betsy hit we lost everything. The next major storm was Katrina my mom and dad lost everything again but that one was the worst i lost my dad..But i still love the weather and thats that..I don't wish any hurricane on anybody PEACE....
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4005. IKE
Emily is Touch and Go tonight.......

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0V7lTFzdSn0
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:



Directly east of me. Hopefully she can lay down an inflow line before departing.
Pulse, u in the Palm Beaches, right?

I have to tell u, folks, I don't understand why we're having the so-called discussion with this Robert character. The minute he wished for a cat 5 to hit Miami, I knew he had to go. It almost impossible to get a cat five to the FL coast at that latitude without hit having gone through the Bahamas somehow. That's not even taking into consideration any other Caribbean islands the storm may have hit.

And while I respect ur right to have an opinion, I'll be [expletive deleted] if I'm going to waste time even observing the existence of someone who doesn't care about what happens to others. If this guy is a troll, we have a process for that; [!] [-] [Ignore]. If he's just a fool, [expletive deleted] if I'm going to sit here and even acknowledge that this level of stupidity exists.
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Obviously I was joking about having you on ignore IKE.

TIA!!!!...;^)
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front doors blew open hurricane story 1980 hurricane iwa kauai
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Quoting RobertFromBrickell:


Well, they all should have evacuated prior to the storm moving in, as simple as that. Mayor Nagen begged and downright pleaded to all of them to leave prior to Katrina moving in, heck, some were even saying those things with tears on the television. Therefore, despite all of that, there were still those that decided not to leave, that was their irresponsibility and not that of NOLA's officials, just saying.


Oops, geography lesson, Slidell is not part of New Orleans. Not even the same Parish. Just saying.....
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3998. IKE

Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Hence, the verbal diarrhea.
Charmin please.

................................................. .................................................. ..


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Quoting NavarreMark:


I'm assumin that your internship will be in the nervous hospital.
I pity the patients wo go to him for help. Sort of like "The Scarecrow" in the Batman movies.
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Quoting RobertFromBrickell:
By


when, Adrian? Can you plz post the latest NAO tendencies, sir?


On wifes laptop but i can tell you The NAO has only a small correlation with overall U.S. hurricane landfall probabilities, but it appears to influence strongly which regions in the United States are most likely to experience a hurricane landfall. Strongly positive NAO values are associated with high intense hurricane landfall probabilities along the East Coast.
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3994. DFWjc
Quoting OceanMoan:


what??????? hahaha


I love Lewis Black's "if it wasn't for that horse, i would of never got into college..and then the girl walks away" - the definition of how to get a brain aneurism..
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3993. tkeith
3986. KEEPEROFTHEGATE

LMAO!!!
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Quoting IKE:

Bad on the arteries. She survive?


Sorry, didn't have a good hurricane story....I panicked!
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
your're full of s**t you know that


Hence, the verbal diarrhea.
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3989. IKE

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
your're full of shit you know that
Pork and beans?
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Quoting FLdewey:
I kind of wish he hadn't flunked out of school... maybe he would have a job and a woman.

Okay maybe just the job... talk about wishcasting.

I think I hear my trusses straining against Emily's winds... trash can leaning to the side in a serious manner. Wait, that's just a raccoon.


Better go make sure it's not recoon.
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3984. jonelu
Looks like the rain is staying off shore...we still have yet to see a drop in WPB.
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Quoting RobertFromBrickell:
By


when, Adrian? Can you plz post the latest NAO tendencies, sir?


He will jfv.
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3981. IKE

Quoting PrivateIdaho:
I once saw a cat eat a whole stick of butter.
Bad on the arteries. She survive?
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Quoting PrivateIdaho:
I once saw a cat eat a whole stick of butter.


what??????? hahaha
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Quoting RobertFromBrickell:
No


I am not, having a deep love for hurricanes does not make you sick to the head. Also, do not speak to me about being crazy, OK? I'm a psychology/sociology major whose graduating in December, so, needless to say, I would know a thing or two about abnormal versus normal human behavior, so plz refrain from speaking to me about the like, Teddy.


As a psych major, you should understand the devastating impact of hurricanes in term of lives lost, property destroyed, but most importantly, the devastation to survivors: physically, mentally, and emotionally. We all are subject to being overwhelmed by events that tear everything we depend on apart.

I did damage assessment following Andrew and Mitch (Honduras). The biggest thing that sticks in my mind was the effect on people. The survivors are just plain stuck: they have no way to get away from all of it: no food, water, electricity, shelter, etc. etc. Years later, they are still affected.

A major hurricane is a major disaster. Maybe in addition to your interest in hurricanes, you might take an interest in people and what mental health professionals can do to help before, during, and after catastrophic events.

… I’m just saying… there’s more to hurricanes… and you're in a field in which you could help make things better
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Folks like you are why Fire Rescue personnel train
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Quoting angiest:


I wouldn't be at all surprised to find out that Andrew is part of why we have the EF tornado scale now. Without context, that looks like (E)F-3 to (E)F-4 tornado damage. That picture is just wind damage, correct?

Under the classical Fujita scale, F-3 was 158-207mph, and F-4 was 208-260mph/ Under the Enhanced Fujita scale they are 136-165 and 166-200 respectively. Those numbers probably match well with Andrew's sustained winds and gusts at that time.


Don't know about that, but it did redefine the construction industry for the whole state.
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3975. IKE
****Blog is in mid-season form. Emily is firing everyone up****

****That 35 mph bag of wind east of Florida****
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I once saw a cat eat a whole stick of butter.
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3971. rv1pop
Quoting RobertFromBrickell:



Now that is clearly twisting my words around unnecessarily that way, sir. I would never wish for such a thing upon our Haitian friends down there, given' their living conditions. Stop putting words in my mouth, UNDERSTOOD? Never did I ever mention the name Hispaniola in my remarks, i clearly only said South Florida. My ideal hope is for another Andrew type of a scenario where all of our Caribbean friends would be sparred of the storm's wrath, got it? Stop trying to compare them poor Haitians to South Floridians, there's no comparison there. BTW, may God forever bless Haiti. Thanks, =).
OK. Look at Slidel, LA. Families still can not find each other - probably never will. Areas that never will again have power. Two houses I know of where there were (are) bodies inside that it is still too dangerous to go in and take care of them. The baby with diabetes, at day 10 the family was unknown... I do not know if the family was found. A huricane party in section 8 housing that LA. said was illegal so the dead were not counted. I will not go on. Join up to be a "First Responder". You will change your tune - and maybe grow up.
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Quoting NOLALawyer:


I think the sympathy meter would peg higher if you showed what a storm can do to those living in poverty, in comparison to showing huge estates that are probably second or even third homes of the rich down in the Caymans.

I lived on South Beach when Andrew struck. I went down to Cutler Ridge and Homestead, and even could have worked down there had I chosen. It was unreal. Of course, that was one year in the last 23 that I have not resided in New Orleans.

I was not looking for sympathy and I took those pictures from Google. Just trying to show the damages and as a matter of fact the homes built by the locals including 100 year old limestone homes withstood Ivan much better than the million dollar homes down here.
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Link Amazing storm
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.