Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

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Quoting stormwatcherCI:



Probability between 50-55W has increased.


Could get a circle around in the next day or two if it maintains its convection.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
000
URNT10 KNHC 051716
97779 17150 60234 75509 91700 08021 79//3 /6976
RMK AF309 WXWXA 110805145138309 OB 04
SHOWERS DSNT W BEARING 270
;


Anybody want to take a stab at DSNT?
DISTANCE
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Wondering how many of those qualifying words like "assuming" will be used in the 2PM discussion.
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000
URNT10 KNHC 051716
97779 17150 60234 75509 91700 08021 79//3 /6976
RMK AF309 WXWXA 110805145138309 OB 04
SHOWERS DSNT W BEARING 270
;


Anybody want to take a stab at DSNT?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:



Probability between 50-55W has increased.
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Quoting gordydunnot:
Looking at least NHC visible Emily looks to have multiple centers one south of Andros and one east of Andros.Should be interesting to watch where the new center forms. Will have a big impact on rain for Florida. Disturbance is in a very bad spot for rapid development. I won't mention any names.

Good - cause you could easily scare the you know what out of a whole lot of folks in my neck of the glades if you did so.  That rapid thunderstorm buildup south of Andros in the last several hours is sure worth keeping an eye on.
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can someone explain what is with all these troughs? I thought the High would be dominating this year. almost seems like last year when troughs would swing down and re curve storms (good of course)
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RGB Floater Loop
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2224 PrivateIdaho "So even though the ocean surface temps are higher in the near shore waters they are shallower and thus have less total heat. Is that right Pat?
How are those data gathered? I'm wondering how we measure the depth of the heat content in open waters.
"

Tempted to let you look. Nothin' more fun than googling without knowing the keyword: AutonomousUnderwaterGliders. Then click the link on the bottom of that page to Argo Floats.

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16 Grothar "No shouting on the blog please."

Please do not quote those who engage in deliberately offensive behaviour.
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POSS T.C.F.A.
05L/INV/REM LOW
MARK
22.85N/74.89W
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Thanks Angela. Yep we're still roasting. Just nothing else to say about that.
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55. 7544
looks like some convection building around of the llc north of cuba /?
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Quoting islander101010:
maybe im watching the wrong spin i see it just north of the center of cuba moving wnw towards to keys not the bahamas
hope it heads over texas way
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hmm looking at rgb there seems to be three LLCOC's one between Cuba and Jamaica at 19.5N 77W moving slowly W/S of due W next skirting the N cuban coast near 23N 73W moving W/WNW another near 22N 75W
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Quoting whepton3:


Looks like some of this brings it in the S. FL neighborhood in a couple of days.
we need the rain...
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Appears HH planes are heading back home and one is currently over wave Emily. Could they just descend and turn on the HDOB for a little? Guess they or NHC are not that interested.


000
URNT10 KNHC 051651
97779 16464 60230 74909 73100 15012 66683 /5760
RMK AF305 WXWXA 110805141421305 OB 05
;


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Lots of shear around Florida...for the moment..
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Quoting kwgirl:
Thanks Angela. Though I was wishing for some rain from Emily, it looks like the Fl. Keys will need to wait for the next storm.


Well, to me, it looks like the remnants of Emily will head for the Keys, not for certain, but to me that appears like the most likely track for Emily's remnant low.
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Looking at least NHC visible Emily looks to have multiple centers one south of Andros and one east of Andros.Should be interesting to watch where the new center forms. Will have a big impact on rain for Florida. Disturbance is in a very bad spot for rapid development. I won't mention any names.
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Thanks, Angela, you do a great job....we appreciate that.

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thx for the update Angela
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If one zooms in really close on the RGB satellite loop, there is a small surface circulation near 22.2N 78.3W, with small thunderstorms over the north side of the small circulation. That circulation appears to be moving WNW. It practically due south of the western tip of Andros Island.
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Quoting Patrap:


Those are some mighty warm waters, 90F.
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Quoting ozelloslim:
Recorded a 127 degree heat index at 12:16pm All time high for this location in central Citrus Co. Fl.


They track all time high heat index?
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting islander101010:
maybe im watching the wrong spin i see it just north of the center of cuba moving wnw towards to keys not the bahamas


i have been seeing it as well, nw of current ofcl position...

must be nothing.
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Quoting Grothar:
One good thing about being so old is that nothing reminds you of anything. Everything is all new; makes life more exciting.


Hi Grothar, nice to meet you!
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
Recorded a 127 degree heat index at 12:16pm All time high for this location in central Citrus Co. Fl.
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Quoting islander101010:
maybe im watching the wrong spin i see it just north of the center of cuba moving wnw towards to keys not the bahamas

wwll that is where the strongest area of 950 vort is
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Quoting 7544:


plus one yes she has .

keeper are those the new runs tia
most recent 12z run next ones come out around 3 pm
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
982

WHXX01 KWBC 051239

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE


Looks like some of this brings it in the S. FL neighborhood in a couple of days.
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Quoting niederwaldboy:
What is an Angela?
author of current blog docs replacement while he is away and a good replacement along with Dr. Rob Carver late night night updates
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32. 7544
Quoting LakelandNana:
Thank you, Angela! You have done an awesome job this week!


plus one yes she has .

keeper are those the new runs tia
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Yes Thank You Angela :o)

A Job Well Done :o)

Taco :O)
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Quoting Skyepony:
My view of Juno on an AtlasV.
Really cool pic. Thanks for posting..
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maybe im watching the wrong spin i see it just north of the center of cuba moving wnw towards to keys not the bahamas
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Thank you Angela. Starting to look busy out there..
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Thank you, Angela! You have done an awesome job this week!
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Here's a video I did for Juno. I work for NASA. :-)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ouNiZCw4bDU
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One good thing about being so old is that nothing reminds you of anything. Everything is all new; makes life more exciting.
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Quoting Skyepony:
My view of Juno on an AtlasV.

Cool pics.
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982

WHXX01 KWBC 051239

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1239 UTC FRI AUG 5 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE EMILY (AL052011) 20110805 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110805 1200 110806 0000 110806 1200 110807 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 22.0N 76.5W 23.6N 77.9W 25.0N 79.0W 26.4N 79.2W

BAMD 22.0N 76.5W 22.9N 78.0W 23.8N 79.4W 24.7N 80.6W

BAMM 22.0N 76.5W 23.1N 77.9W 24.1N 79.1W 25.2N 79.8W

LBAR 22.0N 76.5W 23.9N 78.1W 25.6N 79.4W 27.1N 80.1W

SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 29KTS 34KTS

DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 29KTS 34KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110807 1200 110808 1200 110809 1200 110810 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 27.4N 78.6W 29.5N 74.1W 32.6N 65.6W 32.6N 54.3W

BAMD 25.3N 81.3W 25.9N 82.0W 26.1N 82.1W 26.2N 82.3W

BAMM 25.8N 79.9W 26.5N 78.6W 27.7N 76.3W 29.7N 72.5W

LBAR 28.2N 79.8W 29.7N 77.4W 31.5N 73.5W 34.0N 67.2W

SHIP 38KTS 46KTS 60KTS 63KTS

DSHP 38KTS 46KTS 60KTS 63KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 22.0N LONCUR = 76.5W DIRCUR = 325DEG SPDCUR = 16KT

LATM12 = 20.0N LONM12 = 73.8W DIRM12 = 338DEG SPDM12 = 15KT

LATM24 = 17.2N LONM24 = 71.9W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
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Thanks Angela; last thing I want to see, for the sake of sanity, is Emily again (substitute name of a few girlfriends from long ago) but good call.
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20. Skyepony (Mod)
My view of Juno on an AtlasV.
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More wicked hot weather here in Kansas. I would happily trade for Emily.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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