Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2011

Share this Blog
24
+

Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 119 - 69

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89Blog Index

Quoting whepton3:


So what do you think? Is it going to close off later today?
Latest RUC model run shows that. I'm looking for daytime heating over Cuba to cause the atmosphere to become moister on the western side of the circulation. I think it still has about 24 hours before it wraps up fully with convection in my opinion. You can already see convection trying to reach to that area. Definitely worth watching.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Tropical Lows never "Merge"..they either,dissipate,or repel each others or orbit around a mean centewr,,or Fujiwhara effect
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
Quoting ecflweatherfan:
Look at the convergent cloud lines spiraling in toward the LLC at 23.2N 79W... interesting. Thunderstorms trying around there as well. I think this will become more dominant, expecially if it can pull thunderstorms off island of Cuba this afternoon.


It's almost as if it is sucking in the large area of convection to its east.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
I disagree. I think the SW swirl will become dominant. It has more of a westerly inflow already and you can see convection building towards it on loops.


So what do you think? Is it going to close off later today?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Floater - RGB Color Infrared Loop


Click the "FRONTS" Box,and SST
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Hmmm, just curious. There are two low level spins. If both are going in different directions, and came from what was Emily, how do they name them?


If Emily ever reforms, it will be from only one of the low level centers or a combination of the two. It's highly unlikely that they would both split and make two separate storms. If that were to happen, one would be Emily and the other Franklin. It won't happen though. They will either merge or one will eventually spin away and die.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Look at the convergent cloud lines spiraling in toward the LLC at 23.2N 79W... interesting. Thunderstorms trying around there as well. I think this will become more dominant, expecially if it can pull thunderstorms off island of Cuba this afternoon.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:
Two areas of low level spinning can be seen on visible. One is just north of Cuba and the other is NE of the Bahamas. The two are associated with the broad area of low pressure that the NHC mentioned in the TWO. The one to the NE of the Bahamas will most likely become the dominant feature if Emily redevelops as it has the most convection associated with it and has the model support as well.

Edit: Another possibility is that the two merge to form one center.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic
I disagree. I think the SW swirl will become dominant. It has more of a westerly inflow already and you can see convection building towards it on loops.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aspectre:
2224 PrivateIdaho "So even though the ocean surface temps are higher in the near shore waters they are shallower and thus have less total heat. Is that right Pat?
How are those data gathered? I'm wondering how we measure the depth of the heat content in open waters.
"

Tempted to let you look. Nothin' more fun that googling without knowing the keyword: AutonomousUnderwaterGliders. Then click the link on the bottom of that page to Argo Floats.



That's cool. I found this also.

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Convection looks like it's starting to fire E and W of the tip of Andros Island and working back to the NE blob.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
Hmmm, just curious. There are two low level spins. If both are going in different directions, and came from what was Emily, how do they name them?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Quoting portcharlotte:
I am not seeing any north movement of the LLC and do not understand why NHC keeps pointing that way. The active swirl is still moving wnw IMO. It should pass south of S. Florida at the current rate. Does anyone support my idea here?
Not me.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Waltanater:
or in the same vicinity, Katrina!


I don't want that one again...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 051732
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
BETWEEN CENTRAL CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS
OF EMILY. ALTHOUGH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS DISORGANIZED AT THIS
TIME...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF REGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD AT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
103. angelafritz (Admin)
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Thanks Angela. Yep we're still roasting. Just nothing else to say about that.


Try to stay cool!
above,,

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
Two areas of low level spinning can be seen on visible. One is just north of Cuba and the other is NE of the Bahamas. The two are associated with the broad area of low pressure that the NHC mentioned in the TWO. The one to the NE of the Bahamas will most likely become the dominant feature if Emily redevelops as it has the most convection associated with it and has the model support as well.

Edit: Another possibility is that the two merge to form one center.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting whepton3:


Little surprised though in light of the last few hours around Cuba.

Takes something to get out there on the limb... nothing wrong with that.


They could have gone up to 70%.......Ya Know?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I can see the LLC moving W off the middle north coast of Cuba this morning. If this remnant of Emily is able to make it into the gulf she could RI and head straight to the upper Texas coast towards the end of next week...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Waltanater:
or in the same vicinity, Katrina!


SHHHHH!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I am not seeing any north movement of the LLC and do not understand why NHC keeps pointing that way. The active swirl is still moving wnw IMO. It should pass south of S. Florida at the current rate. Does anyone support my idea here?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I said yesterday, in four days time, we'll have Hurricane Emily/whatever the f storm is

AND LOOK


However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Don't judge the youngling
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
big waves coming off Africa coast
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Emily could redevelop...
Kind of reminds me of 2010 Colin


or in the same vicinity, Katrina!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
84. IKE 1:33 PM EDT on August 05, 2011

Thanks I blew my earlier call of an increase to 80-90% but I gotta man-up and admit I was wrong........ :)


Little surprised though in light of the last few hours around Cuba.

Takes something to get out there on the limb... nothing wrong with that.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
84. IKE 1:33 PM EDT on August 05, 2011

Thanks I blew my earlier call of an increase to 80-90% but I gotta man-up and admit I was wrong........ :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:
Interesting SW wind being reported south of Cuba on the RAMSDIS loop:

RAMSDIS Vis


Seems like it doesn't want to go away.. def have to watch this..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Those of us in the East should finally see some heat relief by the end of next week as the big scorching ridge of high pressure weakens and retrogrades west:

850 mb temps:


1000 mb temps:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Interesting SW wind being reported south of Cuba on the RAMSDIS loop:

RAMSDIS Vis
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Quoting IKE:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
BETWEEN CENTRAL CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS
OF EMILY. ALTHOUGH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS DISORGANIZED AT THIS
TIME...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF REGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD AT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Well there we go...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
000
URNT10 KNHC 051716
97779 17150 60234 75509 91700 08021 79//3 /6976
RMK AF309 WXWXA 110805145138309 OB 04
SHOWERS DSNT W BEARING 270
;


Anybody want to take a stab at DSNT?



Used in a sentence.

SHRA DSNT N-E-SE AND DSNT NW = moderate rain showers in the distant north through east through south-east and distant north-west.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
84. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
BETWEEN CENTRAL CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS
OF EMILY. ALTHOUGH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS DISORGANIZED AT THIS
TIME...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF REGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD AT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
Thanks everyone.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
000
URNT10 KNHC 051716
97779 17150 60234 75509 91700 08021 79//3 /6976
RMK AF309 WXWXA 110805145138309 OB 04
SHOWERS DSNT W BEARING 270
;


Anybody want to take a stab at DSNT?


Doing something nobody thought?
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
I know it is slightly off topic but it does refer to the aftermath of hurricane Katrina...the officers were convicted for killing the unarmed people after the hurricane...

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Scientists awarded patent for new hurricane intensity scale

http://www.keysnet.com/2011/08/05/365464/scientis ts-awarded-patent-for.html
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting westpalmer:


Good - cause you could easily scare the you know what out of a whole lot of folks in my neck of the glades if you did so.  That rapid thunderstorm buildup south of Andros in the last several hours is sure worth keeping an eye on.


Yeah, and you can see some rotation on the Long Range doppler radar loop out of Miami.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aussiecold:
where is our beloved nerd "reddzone"??


Out singing his sorrows i'm assming.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
000
URNT10 KNHC 051716
97779 17150 60234 75509 91700 08021 79//3 /6976
RMK AF309 WXWXA 110805145138309 OB 04
SHOWERS DSNT W BEARING 270
;


Anybody want to take a stab at DSNT?


Distant?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 7544:
looks like some convection building around of the llc north of cuba /?

right now, there is no llc. but there may be soon now that conditions are more favorable.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Nevermind.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
72. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
000
URNT10 KNHC 051716
97779 17150 60234 75509 91700 08021 79//3 /6976
RMK AF309 WXWXA 110805145138309 OB 04
SHOWERS DSNT W BEARING 270
;


Anybody want to take a stab at DSNT?


DISTANT?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
so when shall we see Franklin and Gert and where will they go
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
000
URNT10 KNHC 051716
97779 17150 60234 75509 91700 08021 79//3 /6976
RMK AF309 WXWXA 110805145138309 OB 04
SHOWERS DSNT W BEARING 270
;


Anybody want to take a stab at DSNT?


It means distant.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormwatcherCI:



Probability between 50-55W has increased.


Could get a circle around in the next day or two if it maintains its convection.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 119 - 69

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.